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| 05-Jul-2010 13:20 |
User Research/Opinions
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MAY BANK initiates GROWTH ERA tOday
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Malaysia: · While there has been a slowdown in exports growth for Malaysia, we see this more of a normalization process and remain of the view that Malaysia’s exports would continue to support the economy for the rest of 2010. We have maintained our GDP growth forecast of 6.7% yoy for 2010, even as the government formally revised its estimate upwards to 6%. The key focus of the month was the tabling of the 10th Malaysia Plan in the parliament, in which the government expressed its aim to achieve 6% average growth by 2015 and plans to reduce its fiscal deficit down to 2.8% of GDP by 2015. Based on our view, this 6% target is workable even if it seems a little ambitious. The lack of details as to which specific industries that the government would focus on has led to some skepticism that private investment growth would reach the desired 12.8% yoy target. · On the OPR outlook, BNM Governor Zeti has turned more cautious in recent weeks, although the rhetoric from the central bank continues to suggest that it is not done in normalizing its interest rate. We pencil in another 25bps rate hike for the rest of the year, and this might very well come in early July, as the BNM sticks to its “earlier-the-better” mantra. |
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| 05-Jul-2010 13:06 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Singapore: · The S’pore economy looks set for a steller Q2 GDP headline growth again - April-May industrial production data remained impressive (+54% yoy), and the May Purchasing Managers Index continued to improve to 52.2 (manufacturing) and 53.7 (electronics). However, retail sales disappointed despite the continued pickup in visitor arrivals with the opening of the second Integrated Resort. Nevertheless, barring a further deterioration in the European debt crisis with contagion to Asia, full-year domestic GDP growth is likely to be upgraded from the current official 7-9% forecast. China’s announcement on 19 June that it will proceed with the reform of RMB exchange rate system after a 23 months’ pause fuelled initial market hopes for Asian currencies. However, the latest bout of de-risking has contributed to the SGD NEER retreating below the 1% handle towards the month-end, albeit our view remains for an inherent drift back towards the strong end of its perceived fluctuation band. The SGS bond market should remain supported in the coming month given the current market angst over the European stress test and concern that the global recovery story may be losing traction, even as key central banks adhere to the “low for longer” bias for interest rates. The latest $2.5b 2-year SGS bond re-opening fetched an average yield of 0.49% with a 3bp tail and a bid-cover ratio of 2.1x. The next SGS bond issue is a new 20-year on 1 Sep. |
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| 05-Jul-2010 13:01 |
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DOW & STI
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Global: · Twin headwinds in the form of the Eurozone debt crisis and renewed worries about a China-led global slowdown contributed to a general flight to quality. A turbulent June saw China’s announcement of “greater flexibility” for the Yuan, the exit of Australian PM Rudd, measures to manage capital flows in South Korea and Indonesia, and the US financial reform bill. Global risk appetite took a sharp hit when the US consumer confidence unexpectedly plunged from a revised 62.7 in May to 52.9 in June. In addition to the Conference Board revised its leading economic index for China down from +1.7% to just +0.3% in April on a Calculation Error. This sent equity markets reeling, the 2-year US Treasury bond yield down to a record low of 0.60%, and the VIX back above the 30 handle. European banks also hoarded cash ahead of the €442b maturity of the 1-year ECB lending facility on 1 July, even as regional central banks stepped up purchases of Greek, Portuguese and Irish government bonds, ahead of the upcoming European bank stress test results due in late July. With lingering headwinds, expect the global environment to remain conducive to bonds amid general de-risking. MEDiOCRACY |
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| 05-Jul-2010 12:23 |
Genting Sing
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GenSp starts to move up again
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Good news for retailers Jo-ann Huang joannhuang@mediacorp.com.sg SINGAPORE With a higher yuan, Singapore will be a less costly tourist destination for the Chinese, said Mr Liu Jinshu, investment analyst at Sias Research. “Chinese tourists already accounted for 9.7 per cent of total arrivals in 2009. With a stronger yuan, we can expect more visitors from China,” he said. About 72,000 Chinese tourists touched down on Singapore shores in May, making them the fourth-largest country in terms of visitor arrivals. The top three countries in terms of tourist arrivals in May are Indonesia with 186,000 visitors; India with 116,000 visitors; Malaysia with 82,000 visitors and Australia taking fifth place with 64,000 visitors. Mr Liu said with most visitors coming from Asia, the European debt crisis is not yet a mounting concern. “The euro zone debt crisis will have a relatively smaller impact on Singapore retail trade as a whole,” he said. “Hence, our retailers are less reliant on European customers. Reduced takings from them will probably be more than offset by higher receipts from other nationalities and local spending,” he continued. With the Singapore economy hitting 15.5-per-cent growth on-year in the first quarter, retail sales excluding motor vehicles grew only 7.4 per cent in the same period. But Mr Liu is sanguine on the retail sector for the second half of this year, despite a slower performance compared to broad economic growth. “I believe that consumption will increase towards the end of 2010, as employers become more willing to increase wages and bonuses in view of what I expect to be stronger profit numbers for 2010,” said Mr Liu. Ms Sng Ngoi May, chairwoman from the Orchard Business Association, said retailers are cautiously optimistic as the global economy undergoes a patchy recovery and effects from the Integrated Resorts are only beginning to seep in. However, with rising operation costs, retailers are also looking at thinner margins, said Ms Lau Chuen Wei of the Singapore Retailers Association. “Singapore has moved up a rung in global retail rents ranking to be the 17th most expensive city in the world, even though more retail space has been added to Singapore stock,” she said. Labour costs are also set to increase with foreign manpower regulations tightening. “As these two cost components make up a good 70 per cent of a retailer’s operating costs, it is unlikely that profit margins will rise any time soon, even if top line sales figures show an upward trend,” she added. She maintains that retailers have to remain innovative in an increasingly competitive market and relook manpower strategies to minimise costs. — Singapore retailers can look forward to higher expenditure from an influx of Chinese tourists. That is if policy-makers decide to tighten the yuan, said analysts.Chinese tourists already accounted for 9.7 per cent of total arrivals in 2009.
Mr Liu Jinshu, investment
analyst at Sias Research With a stronger yuan, we can expect more visitors from China. |
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| 05-Jul-2010 12:09 |
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Australian PM gets tough on immigration Gillard vows not to let ‘political correctness’ get in the way SYDNEY Ms Gillard, who ruthlessly deposed former leader Kevin Rudd and solved the mining tax row that weakened him a week later, said people should not be called racist for raising concerns about asylumseekers. “I certainly dismiss labels like intolerant or racist because people raise concerns about border security but we’ve also got to be very alive to the complexity of this andthat there’s no quick fix,” Ms Gillard told the “There’s a temptation for people to use these labels and names to try and close down debate and I’m very opposed to that. People need to be able to have honest discussions. “So any sort of political correctness, or niceties that get in the way, I think, need to be swept out of the way.” The Welsh-born Ms Gillard, whose parents emigrated to Australia in 1966, has made it a top priority to slow the steady flow of asylum-seeker boats that plagued the Rudd government. She also defended former conservative leader John Howard, whose tough immigration policies were scrapped by Mr Rudd, after he was dubbed a “closet racist” in Indian media over his failed bid to lead world cricket’s governing body. “The suggestion John Howard should be labelled a racist, what a load of nonsense. He’s most certainly someone who’s not,” she said. The new Prime Minister is due to make an announcement before a three-month freeze on processing Afghan and Sri Lankan asylumseekers — which was criticised by the United Nations — ends on Thursday. Foreign Minister Stephen Smith told the Another boat carrying 34 asylum- seekers was intercepted yesterday, underlining a problem that arouses strong passions in voters and is likely to be a major factor at elections expected within the coming months. Ms Gillard on Friday announced a compromise deal on the mining tax, which had drawn strong protests from the powerful resources industry and cost Mr Rudd vital support. — Australia’s new Prime Minister Julia Gillard (picture) yesterday vowed not to let “political correctness” get in the way of tackling immigration, signalling a tough line on the issue.Sunday Telegraph.Ten Network television station that Australia wanted to “work not just with the source countries like Afghanistan and Sri Lanka but also transit countries through our region — Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand”.afp |
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| 05-Jul-2010 11:40 |
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wIthOUT DEMO, DEMO-CRACY cannOt EXiST
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| 05-Jul-2010 11:38 |
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Clinton challenges rights crackdown BAKU Day, United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is challenging what she calls a global crackdown on human rights, lamenting a “steel vise’’ squeezing the life out social activism. Ms Clinton arrived in this Caspian Sea nation yesterday after declaring in Poland that intolerant governments around the world are undercutting rights groups whose work is vital to the development of democracy. She said the trend is apparent, and growing worse, even in countries that call themselves DEMO-CRACIES. Ms Clinton spoke briefly with President Ilham Aliyev at the latter’s residence. Mr Aliyev wished her a happy Fourth of July and then stressed the urgency of his country’s territorial dispute with neighbouring Armenia. The two nations are in conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave in Azerbaijan that has been under control of Armenian troops and ethnic Armenian forces since a 1994 cease-fire. “This is the major problem for us and the major threat to regional security,” he said. At an airport news conference later with her Azeri counterpart Elmar Mammadyarov, Ms Clinton said they had discussed at length the territorial dispute. “The final steps toward peace are often the most difficult, but we believe peace is possible,” Ms Clinton told reporters. “This is a high priority for the United States,” she added. She said the 1994 ceasefire agreement “must be enforced”. Following her meeting with Mr Aliyev, Ms Clinton met about a dozen Azeri youth activists, including bloggers, to encourage them to speak out in favour of social change. She said she raised the issue of freedom of expression in her talks with Mr Aliyev. Ms Clinton said both she and President Barack Obama have received letters about Azeri bloggers imprisoned for their writings. (Azerbaijan) — On America’s IndependenceAP |
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| 05-Jul-2010 11:28 |
OCBC Bank
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OCBC
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REMEMBER ? ? ? ? HOW OCBC tOOk Over KEPPEL BANK ? ? ? ? MiNORiTY sharehOlders were cOrnered iN TiMES of lOW PRiCE. thOse whO bOught at lOw lOw lOw prIces made Only abOut S$0.050 per share. thOse whO bOught at HiGH HiGH HiGH PRiCES lOst THEiR PANTS. The SAME TACTiC used by the CK TANG de-LiSTiNG TAKE prOfit and cUt lOss WHiLE One can at HiGH PRiCES. Otherwise, the SAME KEPPEL BANK / CT TANG story WiLL REPEAT iN OCBC. BEWARE AWARE SCARE CARE |
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| 05-Jul-2010 11:19 |
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GENIUS caused mOre DAMAGE than IDIOTS MEDiOCRACY and MERiTOCRACY are iN clOSe bOrders |
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| 05-Jul-2010 11:16 |
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It is absurd and troubling to spend US$1 billion on three days of meetings under any circumstances (since there are much cheaper ways to have such meetings and much better uses for the money). ***** SKYPE SUMMIT is F R E E ******** But it is tragic to spend so much money and then accomplish next to nothing in terms of concrete results and honest accountability.
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| 05-Jul-2010 11:11 |
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An iNFAMOUS sOng "GENIUS & IDIOTS" in HONG KONG tells the TRUTH and the DiFFERENCE between GENIUS and IDIOTS. GENIUS and IDIOTS are brOthers and SiSTERS and PEERS. GENIUS and IDIOTS bOrder On One anOther GENIUS and IDIOTS have the SAME MOTIVATION GENIUS and IDIOTS have the SAME HUMAN VICES MERiTOCRARY and MEDiOCRACY bOrder On One anOther One can find MERiTOCRACY iN MEDiOCRACY One can find MEDiOCRACY iN MERiTOCRACY DON'T be MiSled by MERiTOCRACY as mOre sUperiOR than MEDiOCRACY due tO the Presence of PETERACY (The PETER PRiNCiPLE) GENIUS and IDIOTS are ALL PETERS At the end of the day, GENIUS cause mOre DAMAGE than the IDIOTS
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| 05-Jul-2010 10:53 |
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SKYPE VIDEO SUMMIT is FREE & GREEN & SECURED |
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| 05-Jul-2010 10:49 |
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I So, let’s make our own account of how the G8 did. The answer, alas, is a failing grade. The G8 this year illustrates the difference between photo-ops and serious global governance. Of all of the G8’s promises over the years, the most important was made to the world’s poorest people at the 2005 G8 Gleneagles Summit in Scotland. The G8 promised that, by this year, it would increase annual development assistance to the world’s poor by US$50 billion ($70 billion) relative to 2004. Half of the increase, or US$25 billion per year, would go to Africa. The G8 fell far short of this goal, especially with respect to Africa. Total aid went up by around US$40 billion rather than US$50 billion, and aid to Africa rose by US$10-US$15 billion per year rather than US$25 billion. The properly-measured shortfall is even greater, because the promises that were made in 2005 should be adjusted for inflation. Re-stating those commitments in real terms, total aid should have risen by around US$60 billion, and aid to Africa should have risen by around US$30 billion. In effect, the G8 fulfilled only half of its promise to Africa — roughly US$15 billion in increased aid rather than US$30 billion. Much of the overall G8 increase in aid went to Iraq and Afghanistan, as part of the US-led war effort, rather than to Africa. Among G8 countries, only the UK is making a bold effort to increase its overall aid budget and direct a significant portion to Africa. Since the G8 was off track in its aid commitments for many years, I long wondered what the G8 would say this year, when the commitments actually fell due. In fact, the G8 displayed two approaches. First, in an “accountability report” issued before the summit, the G8 stated the 2005 commitments in current dollars rather than in inflation-adjusted dollars, in order to minimise the size of the reported shortfall. Second, the G8 Summit communique simply did not mention the unmet commitments at all. In other words, the G8 accountability principle became: If the G8 fails to meet an important target, stop mentioning the target — a cynical stance, especially at a summit heralded for “accountability”. n hosting the 2010 G8 summit of major economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States), Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper called for an “accountability summit”, to hold the G8 responsible for the promises that it made over the years.A MATTER OF LIFE AND DEATH FOR WORLD ’S POOR The G8 did not fail because of the current financial crisis. Even before the crisis, the G8 countries were not taking serious steps to meet their pledges to Africa. This year, despite a massive budget crisis, the UK government has heroically honoured its aid commitments, showing that other countries could have done so if they had tried. But isn’t this what politicians like to do — smile for the cameras, and then fail to honour their promises? I would say that the situation is far more serious than that. First, the Gleneagles commitments might be mere words to politicians in the rich world, but they are matters of life and death for the world’s poor. If Africa had another US$15 billion to US$20 billion per year in development aid this year, as promised, with the amounts rising over future years (also as promised), millions of children would be spared an agonising death from preventable diseases, and tens of millions of children would be able to get an education. Second, the emptiness of G8 leaders’ words puts the world at risk. The G8 leaders promised last year to fight hunger with US$22 billion in new funds, but so far they are not delivering. They promised to fight climate change with US$30 billion of new emergency funds, but so far they are not delivering. My own country, the US, shows the largest gap between promises and reality. Hosting this year’s G8 summit reportedly cost Canada a fortune, despite the absence of any significant results. The estimated cost of hosting the G8 leaders for one-and-a-half days, followed by the G20 leaders for one-and-a-half days, reportedly came to more than US$1 billion. This is essentially the same amount that the G8 leaders pledged to give each year to the world’s poorest countries to support maternal and child health. It is absurd and troubling to spend US$1 billion on three days of meetings under any circumstances (since there are much cheaper ways to have such meetings and much better uses for the money). ***** SKYPE SUMMIT is F R E E ******** But it is tragic to spend so much money and then accomplish next to nothing in terms of concrete results and honest accountability. What’s needed: PROFE SSIONAL MANA GEMENT There are three lessons to be drawn from this sorry episode. First, the G8 as a group should be brought to an end. The G20, which includes developing countries as well as rich countries, should take over. Second, any future promises made by the G20 should be accompanied by a clear and transparent accounting of what each country will do, and when. The world needs true accountability, not empty words about accountability. Every G20 promise should spell out the specific actions and commitments of each country, as well as the overall promise of the group. Third, the world’s leaders should recognise that commitments to fight poverty, hunger, disease and climate change are life-and-death issues that require professional management for serious implementation. The G20 meets later this year in South Korea, a country that has emerged from poverty and hunger over the past 50 years. South Korea understands the utter seriousness of the global development agenda, and the poorest countries’ needs. Our best hope is that South Korea will succeed as the next host country, picking up where Canada has fallen far short. Project Syndicate The writer is Professor of Economics and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is also Special Adviser to the United Nations Secretary-General on the Millennium Development Goals. This commentary is exclusive to Today in Singapore.
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| 05-Jul-2010 10:35 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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STi has nO hEad nOw | ||||
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| 05-Jul-2010 10:31 |
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COMMITTEE is DESiGNED to AVOiD DiRECT RESPONSiBiLiTY iN LEADERSHiP The BiGGER the cOmmittee LiKE G20 the EASiER to AVOiD DiRECT LEADERSHiP RESPONSiBiLiTY iF these sO called LEARDERS are Only capable of working in COMMITTEE, they should form the National Committee with ALL their Oppositions to create and innovate National sOlutions iNTERNALLY. They should nOt WASTE TiME and RESORUCES in iNternational Committee which is nOt iNTERESTED in each's National iNTERESTS....
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| 05-Jul-2010 10:24 |
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The unaccountable G8 Why the G20 should take over and make promises that aren’t just empty words Jeffrey Sachs |
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| 05-Jul-2010 10:13 |
SMRT
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eXTEND the STATiON PLATFORM tO TWiCE its LENGTH DOUBLE the number of cars to 12 per TRAiN just dO WHAT nEEds to be dOne STOP GiViNG EXCUSES nObOdy is PAiD fOr EXCUSES and iNACTiON iF nOt CAPABLE, jUst RESiGN sO that CAPABLE PEOPLE can TAKEOVER and CREATE the SOLUTION
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| 05-Jul-2010 10:06 |
SMRT
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1st wOrld SALARY 3rd wOrld MEDiOCRACY |
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| 05-Jul-2010 10:04 |
SMRT
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That sounds like a plan to me Fallacious and not feasibleLetter from Lim Poh Seng I THINK SMRT’s plan for buses to “run parallel to MRT lines in a bid to alleviate overcrowding during peak periods is a good idea. A discount could be given for those who choose to take the bus because of the increased time taken to reach their destinations. Announcements could be given at MRT stations for commuters to take the bus as an alternative when the crowd gets bigger during peak periods. During off-peak periods, the buses can be withdrawn, leaving only the trains to transport commuters. If we are encouraging frequent changes of trains/buses to reach our destination, the frequencies of trains/buses should also be high. I hope transport operators can use bigger vehicles during peak periods and smaller vehicles during off-peak periods to maintain bus/train arrival frequencies at two or three minutes. With a flexible approach, I am sure we can satisfy the needs of commuters throughout the day. I have no wish to see the day when we have to employ “people pushers” to increase our train capacity — or to wait seven minutes or more for my train during off-peak periods. |
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| 05-Jul-2010 10:00 |
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SMRT chief missed the point Letter from Jake Teo I REFER to the article “SMRT has a plan ...” (July 3). I believe SMRT chief executive Saw Phaik Hwa has missed the point regarding her argument on passenger load metrics. Average passenger load metrics serve as a good basis of comparison only in circumstances where all other factors remain relatively similar. The average London commuter might occupy a different area compared to the one in Singapore and Tokyo. An average figure does not take into account variation between passenger loads of each individual train. An average figure also does not take into account how Singapore’s population congregates in certain town centres; leaving only one stop to make the difference between an empty or congested train. |
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