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Interest rates justified ?

Letter from Andrew Tan

The Government has adjusted its GDP growth forecast twice due to the very strong economic data in the first two quarters.

Consumer confidence is picking up, property prices are red hot. But the bank interest rate is miserably low, close to ZERO per cent.

As a layman, I do not understand why we cannot get a better return from putting our money in a bank now, since the economy has registered such STRONG FiGURES.

I can understand why the United States and some Western countries are still keeping ultra-low interest rates because their governments want to encourage spending to boost the economy.

Is the time ripe for the Monetary Authority of Singapore to consider raising the interest rate in the near term?

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http://www.zaobao.com.sg/finance/pages2/comment100801.shtml

本地利率何时“正常化”？

(2010-08-01)

妈妈最近更新定期存款，利率只得0.7％，而且还是给乐龄人士的优惠利率。印象中，最近几年她更新定存，利率总是一次比一次低。大概七八年前，当12个月定存只能享有不到2％的利率时，老人家的反应是“吓？”。如今的反应已经没那么大，只是一声叹息。

　　大概很多人都跟她一样，这些年来对于低利率已经习以为常。

　　然而，今年以来，频频出现跟加息有关的新闻报道，印度今年就四度加息了，邻国马来西亚也加息三次，难免会有人问：什么时候轮到新加坡？

　　2008年的金融大海啸导致全球经济严重衰退，全球央行采纳前所未见的宽松货币政策以振兴经济，利率因而跌到近乎零的水平，本地利率也在2008年底骤降，至今仍然停留在历史性的低位。

　　随着各地经济逐渐复苏，多数市场开始撤回先前的特别举措让利率回到正常水平，除了受创较严重的欧洲和美国还在谨慎观望。新出炉的经济数据一再证明亚洲经济正在强劲增长。韩国第二季经济较上季增长1.5％，优于预期，跟一年前比较增长7.2％。新加坡经济第二季同比增长创下19.3％的历史高位，上半年增长18.1％。

　　印度央行上周再次加息以遏制通胀，幅度甚至超过市场的预期。这已经是印度今年内第四度加息，相信也不会是最后一次。马来西亚、韩国、泰国先后加息，澳洲和加拿大成为率先加入加息行列的主要国家，而且接下来相信还会有更多动作。

　　在经济强劲回弹的同时，我国6月份消费价格指数同比上扬了2.7％，连续六个月攀高。今年上半年的消费价格指数同比上升2％。高经济增长也意味着通货膨胀的压力大增，有经济师预测，我国的通胀率可能在年底达到5％。

美国利率左右本地利率

　　然而，利率并不是新加坡金融管理局的货币政策工具，因此即便通货膨胀压力加剧，利率也未必会走高。

　　左右本地利率的主要因素是美国利率，当然，还有国内的贷款需求。

　　银行在制定利率时，会以银行间的拆息率(SIBOR)和新元掉汇利率(SOR)为考量，前者是银行之间的贷款利率，与美国联储局利率的相互性高，后者是把美元利率与汇率也考虑在内的贷款利率。由此可见，若要本地利率上升，美国利率得先动起来。

　　美国联储局利率自2008年底便处于0％至0.25％的低水平，因此这一年多来，一直压抑着本地利率。3个月拆息率自2009年便停留在1％以下的0.69％，目前在0.56％的历史低位。根据金管局的资料，到6月底，存户若在银行存放3个月新元存款，只可获得0.21％的利率，而一般储蓄利率只有0.14％，都是前所未有的低水平。

　　今年上半年的消费价格指数同比上升2％，然而这段期间的平均储蓄利率只得0.14％，把钱存在银行，实际上还倒贴1.86％。其实早从2004年开始，存款利率便开始低于通胀率，近年来的差距越来越明显。这对存户是很不公平的。把钱存放在银行里，无法赚取利息也罢，至少也要能够保值吧？

下半年通胀率料将升高

突显利率追不上通胀率

　　今年下半年的通胀率预料将升高，金管局对今年的通胀预期是2.5％至3.5％，如果利率仍然处于当前的水平，将进一步突显利率追不上通胀率的情况。

　　由于金管局以新元汇率作为应对通胀的工具，因此银行是否调高利率，完全出自个别银行的商业考量。如今只能寄望美国联储局加息。

然而，过去几年的经验告诉我们，当美国加息推动SIBOR和SOR走高时，银行往往只调高贷款利率，而不是存款利率。

《联合早报》
（编辑：黄秀茱）

x 0

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/finance/pages2/comment100801.shtml

本地利率何时“正常化”？

(2010-08-01)

妈妈最近更新定期存款，利率只得0.7％，而且还是给乐龄人士的优惠利率。印象中，最近几年她更新定存，利率总是一次比一次低。大概七八年前，当12个月定存只能享有不到2％的利率时，老人家的反应是“吓？”。如今的反应已经没那么大，只是一声叹息。

　　大概很多人都跟她一样，这些年来对于低利率已经习以为常。

　　然而，今年以来，频频出现跟加息有关的新闻报道，印度今年就四度加息了，邻国马来西亚也加息三次，难免会有人问：什么时候轮到新加坡？

　　2008年的金融大海啸导致全球经济严重衰退，全球央行采纳前所未见的宽松货币政策以振兴经济，利率因而跌到近乎零的水平，本地利率也在2008年底骤降，至今仍然停留在历史性的低位。

　　随着各地经济逐渐复苏，多数市场开始撤回先前的特别举措让利率回到正常水平，除了受创较严重的欧洲和美国还在谨慎观望。新出炉的经济数据一再证明亚洲经济正在强劲增长。韩国第二季经济较上季增长1.5％，优于预期，跟一年前比较增长7.2％。新加坡经济第二季同比增长创下19.3％的历史高位，上半年增长18.1％。

　　印度央行上周再次加息以遏制通胀，幅度甚至超过市场的预期。这已经是印度今年内第四度加息，相信也不会是最后一次。马来西亚、韩国、泰国先后加息，澳洲和加拿大成为率先加入加息行列的主要国家，而且接下来相信还会有更多动作。

　　在经济强劲回弹的同时，我国6月份消费价格指数同比上扬了2.7％，连续六个月攀高。今年上半年的消费价格指数同比上升2％。高经济增长也意味着通货膨胀的压力大增，有经济师预测，我国的通胀率可能在年底达到5％。

美国利率左右本地利率

　　然而，利率并不是新加坡金融管理局的货币政策工具，因此即便通货膨胀压力加剧，利率也未必会走高。

　　左右本地利率的主要因素是美国利率，当然，还有国内的贷款需求。

　　银行在制定利率时，会以银行间的拆息率(SIBOR)和新元掉汇利率(SOR)为考量，前者是银行之间的贷款利率，与美国联储局利率的相互性高，后者是把美元利率与汇率也考虑在内的贷款利率。由此可见，若要本地利率上升，美国利率得先动起来。

　　美国联储局利率自2008年底便处于0％至0.25％的低水平，因此这一年多来，一直压抑着本地利率。3个月拆息率自2009年便停留在1％以下的0.69％，目前在0.56％的历史低位。根据金管局的资料，到6月底，存户若在银行存放3个月新元存款，只可获得0.21％的利率，而一般储蓄利率只有0.14％，都是前所未有的低水平。

　　今年上半年的消费价格指数同比上升2％，然而这段期间的平均储蓄利率只得0.14％，把钱存在银行，实际上还倒贴1.86％。其实早从2004年开始，存款利率便开始低于通胀率，近年来的差距越来越明显。这对存户是很不公平的。把钱存放在银行里，无法赚取利息也罢，至少也要能够保值吧？

下半年通胀率料将升高

突显利率追不上通胀率

　　今年下半年的通胀率预料将升高，金管局对今年的通胀预期是2.5％至3.5％，如果利率仍然处于当前的水平，将进一步突显利率追不上通胀率的情况。

　　由于金管局以新元汇率作为应对通胀的工具，因此银行是否调高利率，完全出自个别银行的商业考量。如今只能寄望美国联储局加息。

然而，过去几年的经验告诉我们，当美国加息推动SIBOR和SOR走高时，银行往往只调高贷款利率，而不是存款利率。

《联合早报》
（编辑：黄秀茱）

x 0

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume
06/08/10	0.1500	0.1500	0.1500	0.1500	0
05/08/10	0.1500	0.1500	0.1450	0.1500	1,426,000
04/08/10	0.1500	0.1550	0.1500	0.1550	1,566,000
03/08/10	0.1450	0.1450	0.1450	0.1450	61,000
02/08/10	0.1500	0.1550	0.1500	0.1550	850,000
30/07/10	0.1450	0.1450	0.1450	0.1450	155,000
29/07/10	0.1450	0.1450	0.1450	0.1450	100,000
28/07/10	0.1500	0.1500	0.1450	0.1450	270,000
27/07/10	0.1500	0.1500	0.1500	0.1500	231,000
26/07/10	0.1500	0.1500	0.1500	0.1500	120,000

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Technical Ranking (beta)

7

6

5

6

10

5

10

6

10

6

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x 0

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

BakerTech

Written by my colleague, Augustine Chai.. Remisier from Amfraser

There was a champion stock yesterday, Baker Tech, surging almost 20% after lifting from Halt. They are going to sell one of their investment company PPL to YangZiJiang.
Now, from the book value of PPL to Baker Tech, the investment cost them an initial sum of $3Million Sing, while the re-valuation of $5Million Sing (figures are approx). But they are selling the unit for US $155million. while is about $210Million Sing. This will greatly yield the profits of the company. From Per share point of view, Baker Tech Net Assest value will be $0.47 per share. with cash value ofalmost $0.4 per share. Which is incredible. Considering their turn value per annum is only S$75plus million.
Taking all this into considersation, the counter run through the roof and perform really well. Unless the business does not go through, it is definitely worth buying at 47 cents.

Note that Baker still has existing 327 Million warrant non-exercise, but these warrant carry an exercise price of 32 cents, which will significantly increase the company cash position.

After factoring the warrant, the company will have a cash position of 40 cents per share if the deal go through.

Note that on 26th of this month, YangZiJiang will need to place a 10% deposit, if they fail to place the deposit, the deal will not go through and Baker Tech price will fall back to the 34 cents level.

Disclaimer applies

x 0

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

BakerTech

Written by my colleague, Augustine Chai.. Remisier from Amfraser

There was a champion stock yesterday, Baker Tech, surging almost 20% after lifting from Halt. They are going to sell one of their investment company PPL to YangZiJiang.
Now, from the book value of PPL to Baker Tech, the investment cost them an initial sum of $3Million Sing, while the re-valuation of $5Million Sing (figures are approx). But they are selling the unit for US $155million. while is about $210Million Sing. This will greatly yield the profits of the company. From Per share point of view, Baker Tech Net Assest value will be $0.47 per share. with cash value ofalmost $0.4 per share. Which is incredible. Considering their turn value per annum is only S$75plus million.
Taking all this into considersation, the counter run through the roof and perform really well. Unless the business does not go through, it is definitely worth buying at 47 cents.

Note that Baker still has existing 327 Million warrant non-exercise, but these warrant carry an exercise price of 32 cents, which will significantly increase the company cash position.

After factoring the warrant, the company will have a cash position of 40 cents per share if the deal go through.

Note that on 26th of this month, YangZiJiang will need to place a 10% deposit, if they fail to place the deposit, the deal will not go through and Baker Tech price will fall back to the 34 cents level.

Disclaimer applies

x 0

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

BakerTech

Written by my colleague, Augustine Chai.. Remisier from Amfraser

There was a champion stock yesterday, Baker Tech, surging almost 20% after lifting from Halt. They are going to sell one of their investment company PPL to YangZiJiang.
Now, from the book value of PPL to Baker Tech, the investment cost them an initial sum of $3Million Sing, while the re-valuation of $5Million Sing (figures are approx). But they are selling the unit for US $155million. while is about $210Million Sing. This will greatly yield the profits of the company. From Per share point of view, Baker Tech Net Assest value will be $0.47 per share. with cash value ofalmost $0.4 per share. Which is incredible. Considering their turn value per annum is only S$75plus million.
Taking all this into considersation, the counter run through the roof and perform really well. Unless the business does not go through, it is definitely worth buying at 47 cents.

Note that Baker still has existing 327 Million warrant non-exercise, but these warrant carry an exercise price of 32 cents, which will significantly increase the company cash position.

After factoring the warrant, the company will have a cash position of 40 cents per share if the deal go through.

Note that on 26th of this month, YangZiJiang will need to place a 10% deposit, if they fail to place the deposit, the deal will not go through and Baker Tech price will fall back to the 34 cents level.

Disclaimer applies

Hulumas ( Date: 23-Jun-2010 17:55) Posted:

How much is the exercise price?

pharoah88 ( Date: 23-Jun-2010 17:53) Posted:

SUPER DUPER WARRANT

WARRANT PRICE WAS SAME AS ITS SHARE

x 0

http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/StockQuote/SGX/gb4w.htm

MA5:	0.0930	STO9:	67.7778	:
MA20:	0.0880	MTM14:	0.0050	:
MA50:	0.0854	RSI14:	42.3240	:

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http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/StockQuote/SGX/5NDW.htm

Sector:				52 Wk Range:	0.005 - 0.02
PE:	0	EPS:	0	Div Yield:	0
Market Cap:	0	NTA:	0.0000	Div Date:

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MA5:	0.0170	STO9:	70.0000	:
MA20:	0.0123	MTM14:	0.0050	:
MA50:	0.0113	RSI14:	59.5360	:

x 0

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume
06/08/10	0.0100	0.0150	0.0100	0.0100	999,000
05/08/10	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	0
04/08/10	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	0
03/08/10	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	0
02/08/10	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	500,000
30/07/10	0.0050	0.0050	0.0050	0.0050	0
29/07/10	0.0100	0.0100	0.0050	0.0050	550,000
28/07/10	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	759,000
27/07/10	0.0100	0.0100	0.0050	0.0100	9,494,000
26/07/10	0.0150	0.0150	0.0150	0.0150	0

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5NDW

Top Global W130612

06/08/10 00:00

LAST: 0.0100	CHANGE: 0.00	OPEN: 0.0100	HIGH: 0.0150	ASK: 0.0050	VOLUME: 999,000
LAST: 0.0100	CHANGE(%): 0.00	PREV: 0.0100	LOW: 0.0100	BID: 0.0050	OPEN INT: 0