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01-Sep-2009 23:20

Others / DOW

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DOW probably testing the previous resistance at 9400 as support, if tat fails, next at around 9180:

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01-Sep-2009 23:17

Others / DOW

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Period mah

maxcty ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 23:16) Posted:

your boss like red so much??

handon ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 22:59) Posted:

my boss said SKY got EYE.... dow more red SKY more EYES.... hehe.... Smiley

juz like the GOD with 3 EYES + 1 DOG... hehe... Smiley

Let see....

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01-Sep-2009 23:12

Others / Market News that affect STI

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U.S. Stocks Gain as ISM, Home Sales Top Economists’ Estimates

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By Lynn Thomasson

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks gained after data on manufacturing and pending home sales topped estimates, boosting confidence that an economic recovery will justify the six-month rally in equities.

Caterpillar Inc., DuPont Co. and Walt Disney Co. climbed at least 1 percent after private reports said factories expanded in August for the first time in 19 months and the number of contracts to buy previously owned homes increased for a record sixth consecutive month. Bank of America Corp. climbed on a report it offered to repay part of its government bailout, while EBay Inc. gained on plans to sell its Skype Internet phone unit.

“On a short-term basis, momentum is driving the market higher,” said Mike Morcos, who helps manage $1 billion at Old Second Wealth Management in Aurora, Illinois. “We’re looking at any pullback as an opportunity to buy. The crisis has been avoided and the stimulus money from the government is having some real positive effects.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent to 1,021.73 at 10:17 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 8.47 points, or 0.1 percent, to 9,504.75.

U.S. stock-index futures and European equities slumped earlier on growing concern the recent rally in stocks may have outpaced the prospects for a recovery from the first global recession since World War II.

A 52 percent jump in the S&P 500 from an 11-year low in March left the equity benchmark valued at about 19 times the profits of its companies as of the end of last week, the most expensive level since June 2004. The 50 percent rally in Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index over the same period drove the average price-earnings valuation for its companies to the highest level since 2003.

Bearish Bets

Paul Tudor Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are among funds betting that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so-called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

The S&P 500 added 3.4 percent in August for a sixth straight monthly advance, the longest stretch of gains since January 2007, as reports from consumer confidence to home sales signaled an economic recovery. September is historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the benchmark index losing 1.3 percent on average since 1928, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Valuations for U.S. stocks look “marginally stretched” compared with other developed markets, Credit Suisse said in a research report. Strategist Andrew Garthwaite predicted American equities will underperform when the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index is above 50 and rising.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: September 1, 2009 10:19 EDT

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01-Sep-2009 23:02

Midas / Midas

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From Next Insight:

Railway-building frenzy in China

Written by Andrew van Buren (China correspondent)
Tuesday, 25 August 2009
The following is a translation by our China correspondent, Andrew van Buren, of a recent article on www.fec.com.cn SGX-listed Midas Holdings designs and manufactures aluminium alloy products (above) for the production of train carriages. Beijing, Shanghai and 15 other cities have a total of 50 tracks and 1,154 km of lines still under construction, said Mr. Lu Kehua, director of the urban/rural section of the department of Construction Bureau at the State Council. Currently, there are approximately 27 cities in the initial planning stages for launching their own subway systems. Among them, 22 have received start-construction approval from the State Council. Up to 2015, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and 19 other cities will have built 79 subway lines totaling 2,260 km with total investment of 882.0 bln yuan. Earlier this year, the National Development and Reform Commission's (NDRC) Mr. Wang Qingyun, director of the infrastructure department, said the commission has already approved – or is on the verge of approving – 23 urban subway projects. Mr. Lu Kehua said that the above approved project tallies do not include those proposed subway systems still under construction. This means that in 2015, China will have a total of 158 lines totaling 4,189 km. According to information from industry insiders, the entire approval process exercised by the NDRC requires at least three levels of authorization, in addition to mandating that cities under consideration for a subway system must have at least three mln inhabitants and a gross domestic product (GDP) of over 100 bln yuan. In addition, projects should receive at least 10 bln yuan from local financing. And as for light rail urban lines, the required figures need only be 60% of those stipulated for subway lines. Currently, 50 cities across China have plans for such systems that meet or surpass all the above requirements. Is the credit nightmare over? Actually, this is not the first time in China’s relatively short period of rapid economic development that several cities have had simultaneous plans to develop their own subterranean mass transit systems. Some cities have had such dreams for decades and railcars can already be heard rumbling beneath many of their major street-level thoroughfares. Due to concerns that a herd mentality would ensue as cities sought to keep up with their peers in the public transport drive and the status and investment that such amenities bring, the State Council on at least two occasions issued a “stop work” order and a temporary moratorium on new project approvals to prevent a frenzied nationwide subway digging campaign from getting out of hand. In 1995, directive No.60 of the State Council issued such a “stop work” order and put a freeze on new project approvals. In October of 2002, the State Council once again ordered subway projects across the country to halt construction. Some of the more notable projects affected by this moratorium at the time were lines in Hangzhou, Shenyang and Shanghai’s M8 line. According to analysts, the main incentive for regulators to issue “stop work” orders is over fears that various subway projects have become bottomless pits with no clear timeframe for profitability, and with legacies that bequeath massive financial burdens to local communities for years on end. According to industry insiders, 700 mln yuan of investment is required for each kilometer of track, which many city officials consider to be far too exorbitant and out of their respective budgets. This led to two embarrassing examples of half-finished projects in the mid-1990s due to a sudden drying up of funds in both Chongqing and Qingdao. The conundrum is that a fast growing city economy will provide the required GDP to authorize a subway system, as well as a growing sense of pride mixed with some sense of entitlement among the hardworking denizens of the city. But fast economic growth also encourages riskier lending practices on more generous terms that can backfire and leave city officials and planners red-faced as they stand over half-finished holes in their downtown centers. “We are very happy to have this chance for development. If there was no global economic crisis, then applications and approvals would not be flowing in at this pace. It is both a function of the government’s drive to boost domestic demand and bolster the local economy,” said an expert on the ongoing Nanchang city subway projectBY YEAR-END 2008, China already had 29 key subway lines with 10 cities having a total of 776 kilometers of track. Annually, subway cars carried passengers on 2.21 bln separate trips last year.

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01-Sep-2009 22:56

Midas / Midas

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From OCBC Investment Research:

Midas's firm order book of 1.4 billion yuan (S$296 million), more anticipated contract wins in Sept - Nov 2009... will serve to under-gird valuations"

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01-Sep-2009 22:54

Midas / Midas

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MIDAS / Midas / Posted: 01-Sep-2009 10:39 4Go to Message

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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

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01-Sep-2009 22:48

Others / DOW

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Transform into a Teddy Bear

DnApeh ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 21:55) Posted:

i guess the bear was killed...... kidding only.

just a matter of time before it transform into a black bear..........this one not kidding.

iPunter ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 21:49) Posted:

hahaha... Clasically Bull vs Bear...

Bulls are as good as bears...

Today I just passed the big black bull at Merryl Lynch...

And wondered why there's no bear too...

Since bears also make many people rich... Smiley

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01-Sep-2009 22:47

Others / DOW

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dealer0168 ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 22:16) Posted:

Hahaha, of course Sky got no eye. Only got cloud...hehe

Cheers.

handon ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 22:14) Posted:

my boss said SKY got no EYE... kena left right center.... hehe.... Smiley

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01-Sep-2009 22:43

Others / DOW

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ronleech ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 22:39) Posted:

I think you better get ready $20.....give your boss as white gold money...might see hit all red tomorrow....

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01-Sep-2009 22:41

Trading Techniques / Advices to newbies

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U r most welcome.

I too hope u can post and share useful articles so tat we all HUAT together thru mutual sharing of knowledge.

Hulumas ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 20:19) Posted:

Dear Richtan,

I learn and place into my practical action into stock market from now. Very good posting! Thank you.

richtan ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 12:30) Posted:

September 09 newsletter - Dr YC Chan

曾渊沧@股友通讯录
MICA (P) 133/09/2008
九月份

Dear Friends

You may mark the August stock market being volatile, or boring.

Volatile because there were many days in August the ups and downs
of the market index from one day to another could add up to 2% difference.

The first day the market could go up by 2%, only to see it came down by 2% the next day
and went up by 2% again on the third day.

Punters’ sentiments kept changing amidst joy and anxiety.

They lost money everyday because they misjudged the market trend.

The worst tactics is to chase stocks when market is rising and cut loss when
it is coming down.

The market was boring because notwithstanding its volatility,
the market position remained the same as if nothing had happened.

Patience plays a very important part in stock investment.

Once you are sure it is a bull market, you should have the patience to hold
good quality stocks and ignore the daily price fluctuations.

Sideline yourself and become an observer; sell your stocks only when you think
the market fundamentals have altered.

This is the way to make big money.

Immersing in the daily market fluctuations, you may make several mistakes and
lose confidence and more mistakes followed.

There are many people who lose money in a bull market.

These are short term players who make wrong moves more often than the right moves.

What are the good quality stocks?

How to select them?

As the world keeps on changing; there is no such thing as a permanent good quality

The moment the stock market becomes bubbles, the value of good quality stocks disappears.

To be value conscious is the best way to select good quality stocks.

When the prices of some shares have gone up many folds over a short span of one
their value would naturally be discounted.

At present mid term bull market, under valued shares have become fewer and fewer.

The mid term bull market still has growth potential.

Unless there are adverse factors affecting the particular industry and corporate stocks
you are holding, you should not sell your holdings hastily.

Stock markets always behave ahead of economic data.

Therefore people who make big money are those who dare to venture into the markets facing collapse, as most of the shares would then be undervalued, some shares may price only 10% of their real worth.

Beside China, the global economy is not recovering, although signs of its recovery are there, probably before the end of this year.

Before economy recovery is officially acclaimed, share prices are mostly in “buy” category.

When recovery has been officially acclaimed, share prices may have skewed to the high side.

To enter the market for short term punting by then would be analogy to playing the last round of music chair: that if you do not know how to unload, you would not have a chair to sit on it.

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01-Sep-2009 22:40

Trading Techniques / Advices to newbies

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U r most welcome.

I too hope u can post and share useful articles so tat we all HUAT together thru mutual sharing of knowledge.

thulasiappan ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 20:34) Posted:

Dr YC Chan's news letter is good guidelines for the newbies like me. Thanks Richtan for this posting. Hope you will post more such useful articles.

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01-Sep-2009 22:32

Trading Techniques / Advices to newbies

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I fully agree with u, as I too experienced it myself in my earlier days thru the school of hard knocks, but I hope tat my posting of this sharing of the professor's newsletter can help to create an awareness n shorten the learning curve for newbies.

smartrader ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 21:37) Posted:

One can truly appreciate Dr Chan's words (highlighted in red) if you are in the market long enough or have experienced it yourself. All are words of wisdom - luckily i experienced in my early days .

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01-Sep-2009 22:28

Trading Techniques / Advices to newbies

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It is a very big ? whether the professor agree with your comments, so I think it is not right to say "I am sure the professor himself can understand what I mean too", unless the professor see your posting here and make his personal comments.

lookcc ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 21:28) Posted:

completely agree with u, ur defence is not called 4 at all.

iPunter ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 21:17) Posted:

hahaha...

I will be the first one to ask people to listen to academics...

But whoever agrees with me that no one can be sure of the market's direction tomorrow or beyond,

regardless of time frame, will understand what I mean...

I am sure the professor himself can understand what I mean too... Smiley

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01-Sep-2009 21:10

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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My advice is not to be too eager-beaver to take short profits and remember the 3rd golden mantra:

3) Cut losses short n let profit runs with trailing stops, we need to let profit runs as much as it can to cover all the losses made n yet make net gains. When we hit the cut-loss, never be emotional, be mechanical, immediately exit n never regret even if later it goes up bcos if dun cut, wat if it continues to go down, preserving ammunition to fight another day is the key. We can always re-enter if there is another buy sign candles, even if buying at a higher price.

I have moved up my stop (trailing stops) to last Thurs and Fri's low at 0.705, ie if Wed it closes below 0.705, the next day (Thurs), I will exit for sure, if it later goes up again, so be it.

The above is just my opinion, so do not follow me blindly, dyodd n BOSAYOR

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01-Sep-2009 15:09

Others / Market News that affect STI

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Asia

Europe

America

Commodity(** = 30 mins delayed)

Index	Last	Change	%	High	Low	Time
STI	2620.58	27.68	1.07%	2633.02	2596.15	15:07:30
Hangseng	19880.47	156.28	0.79%	19961.74	19734.27	15:07:32
Nikkei225	10530.06	37.53	0.36%	10577.19	10438.51	15:00:38
SSE	2683.72	15.98	0.6%	2727.08	2639.76	15:00:23
KLCI	1172.25	-2.02	-0.17%	1174.27	1163.78	15:06:01
SET	659.59	6.34	0.97%	659.59	654.36	12:30:11

richtan ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 11:38) Posted:

Asia

Europe

America

Commodity(** = 30 mins delayed)

Index	Last	Change	%	High	Low	Time
STI	2612.46	19.56	0.75%	2619.56	2596.15	11:36:30
Hangseng	19834.90	110.71	0.56%	19961.74	19734.27	11:36:32
Nikkei225	10547.56	55.03	0.52%	10547.98	10438.51	12:36:04
SSE	2679.84	12.09	0.45%	2696.44	2639.76	11:30:19
KLCI	1170.35	-3.92	-0.33%	1174.27	1163.78	11:32:01
SET	656.06	2.81	0.43%	657.52	654.36	10:34:55

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01-Sep-2009 14:37

Others / Market News that affect STI

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China Manufacturing Grows at Fastest Pace Since 2008 (Update1)

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By Bloomberg News

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- China’s manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 16 months in August, driven by record lending in the first half of the year, two surveys showed.

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 54 from 53.3 in July, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in an e-mailed statement today in Beijing. A PMI released by HSBC Holdings Plc also climbed.

Gains in output, orders and jobs added to evidence that Premier Wen Jiabao can meet his 8 percent growth target for the year as a stimulus package counters falling exports. The Shanghai Composite Index plunged into a bear market yesterday on concern that the world’s third-biggest economy will slump as banks rein in credit growth to avert asset bubbles and bad loans.

“China’s equity market has taken a battering in the past few weeks, but the economic data suggests that the recovery remains on track,” said Brian Jackson, a strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “Beijing still faces the difficult task of managing liquidity conditions to avoid a bubble or a bust.”

Asian stocks rose. The Shanghai stock index gained 1.8 percent as of 1:13 p.m. local time. It tumbled 6.7 percent yesterday, capping its biggest monthly loss since October.

New loans plunged to 355.9 billion yuan ($52 billion) in July, less than a quarter of June’s level, and may slump to 200 billion yuan in August, the Beijing-based business magazine Caijing reported yesterday without citing anyone.

‘Economic Rebound’

The official PMI “shows that China’s economic rebound will maintain momentum,” Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council Development and Research Center, said in today’s statement. Zhang cautioned that there were “uncertainties” in the economy and a mix of “positive and negative factors.”

Eighteen industries, including petrochemicals, beverages, metal processing and equipment manufacturing reported expansions. Only textiles and pharmaceuticals contracted.

The output index rose to 57.9 from 57.3 in July. The measure of new orders climbed to 56.3 from 55.5. An export-order index was unchanged at 52.1. An employment index gained to 51.4 from 50.8. Readings above 50 indicate expansions.

“This clearly shows that we are in a broad-based economic recovery,” said Sun Mingchun, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. The gain in jobs was “very encouraging, as it shows that firms are confident enough to increase hiring, which will also help boost consumption for the rest of the year,” he said.

Cars, Appliances

Subsidies for purchases from cars to home appliances are aiding manufacturers by stoking domestic demand as the global recession cuts exports. Shenzhen-based BYD Co., a Warren Buffett-backed maker of cars and rechargeable batteries, said first-half profit almost doubled as stimulus measures boosted sales.

The State Council, China’s cabinet, said last month that it saw signs of a recovery in manufacturing and also announced plans to curb overcapacity in the steel and cement industries.

“A continued rise in the PMI fueled by domestic demand may have reinforced the authorities’ concern” about excess capacity, said Sherman Chan, a Sydney-based economist with Moody’s Economy.com.

The HSBC PMI, previously released by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, showed an overall increase to 55.1 from 52.8 in July and a jump in export orders.

Export Recovery

Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, said a rise in the import index in the official PMI signaled a looming export recovery as the nation sourced materials to be processed into overseas shipments.

Both surveys showed inflation pressures, with indexes of input prices rising to 13-month highs. The central bank said in July that consumer prices may rebound after bottoming out in the third quarter. Prices have fallen for six straight months.

China’s economic growth accelerated to 7.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier on the nation’s $585 billion stimulus package and more than $1 trillion of new loans in the first half. The 6.1 percent expansion in the first three months of the year was the weakest in almost a decade.

Growth will continue to quicken in the third and fourth quarters, reaching 8.3 percent for the year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 21 economists.

In contrast, former Morgan Stanley Asia economist Andy Xie predicts the Shanghai Composite Index may fall a further 25 percent because China’s recovery “isn’t sustainable.”

Government efforts to control lending have included requiring lenders to raise reserves to 150 percent of non- performing loans by the end of this year. Bank of China Ltd., which advanced the most new credit in the first half, said Aug. 27 that it will slow loan growth in the second half and improve loan quality.

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at khamlin@bloomberg.net Last Updated: September 1, 2009 01:18 EDT

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01-Sep-2009 14:34

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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Hi ezonme,

dyodd means "do your own due diligence", ie homework

SOBAYOR means "Sell or buy at your own risk"

ezonme ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 14:27) Posted:

hi rictan,

i'm like to read yr post and recommendation.

Wat is dyodd and SOBAYOR which always appear in yr post.

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01-Sep-2009 14:10

Sinotel Technolo Rg / Sinotel IPO

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I beg to differ, see extract from Dr. Chan in answer to your point "it's simple logic..but sometimes we get too caught up with the "good economic news" that we forget that the economy is in bad shape" :

Stock markets always behave ahead of economic data.

Before economy recovery is officially acclaimed, share prices are mostly in “buy” category.

When recovery has been officially acclaimed, share prices may have skewed to the high side.

ozone2002 ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 13:39) Posted:

actually what Dr Chan is conveying is the 90/10 rule some may have heard of it as 80/20 rule..

anyway its the same concept..

90% of the population earn 10% of the money to be made in the market.. Applies to all markets (property,equity,etc)

u want to be the 10% of the population who earns 90% of the money in the market...

how to do that? simple.. just do the opposite of what the majority is doing..

so step back and ask urself..with the bull market running, what is 90% of the population doing? if they are buying.. u gotta get out..

cos u want to be the 10% of the population that's making the 90% of the money..

it's simple logic..but sometimes we get too caught up with the "good economic news" that we forget that the economy is in bad shape..

blame those media and newspaper that paint a rosy picture..cos the fact is they also don't know what's happening with the economy or where

the economy is going.. they just report it and find a story that somehow relates to the market's rise or fall for that day..

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01-Sep-2009 13:11

Others / How Many of you will say this is bear coming?

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In ICU

des_khor ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 12:13) Posted:

If kenal LP this Bear need to be hospitalize!

richtan ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 12:10) Posted:

OUCH!!!

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01-Sep-2009 13:08

Trading Techniques / Advices to newbies

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Nothing wrong with holding, but dun hold bindly, dyodd.

iPunter ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 12:52) Posted:

Holding is the natural inclination of newbies...

And even veterans are the best holders... Smiley

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