ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Note tat the centreline also so happens to be the 50ema.

richtan ( Date: 03-Sep-2009 10:25) Posted:

Looks like the centerline is again acting as a support as in past 5 occassions, now bouncing up from it.

richtan ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 21:51) Posted:

Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

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Looks like the centerline is again acting as a support as in past 5 occassions, now bouncing up from it.

richtan ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 21:51) Posted:

Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

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Hi shweli,

Hi jazzoff,

U r most welcome but remember, do not follow my charting blindly as I m a mere mortal w/o divine powers n may also be wrong, so dyodd n BOSAYOR.

The fibo lines also serve as support n resistance, when any of the % line is broken upward n price close above it, tat resistance is broken, on subsequent pullback, if it did not break below it, it becomes the support but if it again broke below it, it again becomes a resistance.

Look forward to your chart posting to exchange pointers, dun worry about mistakes, we all learn in the process, tats why I post my chart, not to show-off my skill, but to exchange pointers n learn from others.

shweli ( Date: 03-Sep-2009 00:25) Posted:

Hi richtan,

I m learning your TA all the way and help a lot help to decide to me. Thanks. One more question. Regd to Fibo, how to diff. Resistance and Support?

Thanks.

richtan ( Date: 03-Sep-2009 00:10) Posted:

Hi raymondho,

I m using chartnexus "draw parallel line" feature joining the high to high in a downward direction and then drag the lower parallel line down to the lowest low possible (see my chart to understand).

See below chart on fibo retracement, the current price of 0.81 is between 23.6% to 38.2%,.

CCI, MACD, RSI, etc are all lagging indicators.

MACD has not yet show any crossover as I mentioned it is a lagging indicator.

To see leading indicator, must know how to spot reversal candle:

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Hi jazzoff,

U r most welcome but remember, do not follow my charting blindly as I m a mere mortal w/o divine powers n may also be wrong, so dyodd n BOSAYOR.

Read my reply to raymondho below on how I draw the parallel line, it serves as resistance n support.

Look forward to your chart posting to exchange pointers, dun worry about mistakes, we all learn in the process, tats why I post my chart, not to show-off my skill, but to exchange pointers n learn from others.

jazzoff ( Date: 03-Sep-2009 01:36) Posted:

Hi richtan,

Many thanks to your TA sharing and teachings. Having observed your TA analysis and read up the recommended websites and books, the learning process had been valuable and I am very grateful to you for that as I am still in the formative stages of picking up TA.

Similar to other forumers in this thread, I too am vested in this counter and have been doing a little charting to plan my trade albeit the steep learning curve. However, please pardon me for asking a silly question as I am still a little unclear about certain charting techniques: Could you kindly explain the significance of the diagonal blue parallel lines and how do you determine where they are drawn.

Please kindly advise. Thank you.

richtan ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 21:51) Posted:

Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

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I tot this thread is meant for STI, now become rojak, hijacked.

cheongwee ( Date: 03-Sep-2009 10:03) Posted:

tat hong looking good also...wait ..monitor first..pls dyodd

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Hi raymondho,

I m using chartnexus "draw parallel line" feature joining the high to high in a downward direction and then drag the lower parallel line down to the lowest low possible (see my chart to understand).

See below chart on fibo retracement, the current price of 0.81 is between 23.6% to 38.2%,.

CCI, MACD, RSI, etc are all lagging indicators.

MACD has not yet show any crossover as I mentioned it is a lagging indicator.

To see leading indicator, must know how to spot reversal candle:

raymondho ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 23:33) Posted:

Hi! Richtan,

Your chart clears all doubt, agree with you, most probably will reverse up very very soon.

May I ask you from where you got the trend channel? It looks more indicative for Midas.

When I use Fibo retracement, Midas may face with downturn force to 0.80 at 61.8% supported by MACD as well as CCI.

Just my finding, subject to correction from the forumers. Thanks a lot.

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Hi tklmcs,

U r most welcome, it is my pleasure to share by giving back to this forum wat I had benefited from it.

Remember, we are all mere mortals with no divine powers and may be right or wrong at times, so do not just follow blindly, dyodd n BOSAYOR

tkimcs ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 22:12) Posted:

Hi Richtan,

Thanks for the advice & guidance. As newbie, I have also been following your thread closely, learning to read & master the TA. Thanks.

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Hi taitai,

I took a quick look at rickmers n noted tat it is downtrending with the 15ema, 30ema, 50ema, 65ema and even the long-term 200ema all downtrending and price below all the emas.

Personal, I would not go long on this stock unless there is a reversal sign, even then, be wary and exit if it cant break and stay above the emas.

Unless u are playing CFD shorting, a different ballgame then.

Above is jmo, so dyodd n BOSAYOR.

If u r newbie to trading, below is my advice, whether to listen or not is up to u

To succeed in trading, my sincere n genuine advice to newbies:

"Learn to master TA n u are the master of your own trades." - Learn how to spot reversal signs in candlestick charts for entry n exit

"Learn how to fish n u can fend for yourself forever, relying on others n forever u r dependent on others n at their mercy"

"There is no easy way n short-cut to success in life, including trading, all are own hardwork, u need to learn the tools of the trade"

U can download the free charting software from www.chartnexus.com (no need to get the paid version, all these can be self-learn,dun waste your money, instead self-learn the skills n use tat money to trade).

I self-learnt, see how analysts do it and practice by covering up the candles and test my knowledge and hone my skills till I m quite confident b4 start trading bcos the mkt is merciless, I rather save the money to trade and multiply it.

Those TA courses, wat they teach, all are from books, nothing new.

For those paid software,even after the software scan, still need our analysis, cannot assume it is 100% correct, as nothing can replace the human brain and knowledge as analysis is an art of how individual interpret, no matter how much they input all the scientific knowledge into the software

If u are not sure, post your charts n hopefully some forumers good in TA will exchange pointers with u.

To know how to post, search the forum for "tinypic.com"

I had created 3 threads dedicated to newbies under "General", "Trading Techniques":

1. "Learning TA" - websites where u can learn TA for free but of course, TA is not infallible, thus need to set stop-loss)

2. "Some recommended good Trading and TA books" - of course u can also buy TA books.

3. "Advices to newbies" particular the 3 golden mantras.

Take your time to read and learn, dun rush, remember "Rome was not built in one day"

taitai ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 16:37) Posted:

well, I am still learning the ropes of TA, hence, blue chips are the way to go for me now, since the FAs are stable for these companies. I hopped on the boat for some counters that were trading way below their NAVs, and if I am determined enuf to wait on for the next 2 years, I believe the returns will be in the region of 2x to 3x or even better.

Penny stocks are not the way to go for me currently, as the markets swings and turns like experiencing PMS. Of cuz for the strong-hearted can go in to do some contra-trading with sensible stop-loss.

..... still I am putting my $$$ on Rickmers. I just hope that it sinks a little further, do some accumulation and see it fly.

Smiley

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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

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To me, it is a mkt collapse as very drastic from current 2600 to 1800, a drop of 800 points and below the 200ema, a bear mkt, b4 then, I would be aredi out of the mkt if it does happen as I would be out if it ever close 2 days continuous below the 200ema and turn to CFD shorting.

DnApeh ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 14:44) Posted:

1800 will not be a collapse. STI broke out of a double bottom ~1960, the break-out has not been tested yet, so still got possibility to go to such levels.

richtan ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 14:37) Posted:

Wow!! to drop to 1800, tat must be a mkt collapse, shocking n unbelievable, anyway, I dun care as all this is just MFT, and I trade day to day based on my chart interpretation

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Hi taitai,

Many thanks for giving me your respect, but remember I m just another mortal with no divine powers, my analysis is based on to the best of my TA knowledge n may be right or wrong, so dyodd n BOSAYOR and never blame me for any losses as likewise I dun benefit from those tat make money following my analysis.

I too look forward to the day when u can give back to the forum wat u had benefited from it just as I did, I did it not to gain fame or credit but to exchange views.

taitai ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 13:45) Posted:

richtan,

I have all the respect for you. many thanks for the constructive and useful posts so far. please keep it up, i m a great fan of yours.

Cheers

Smiley

richtan

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Wow!! to drop to 1800, tat must be a mkt collapse, shocking n unbelievable, anyway, I dun care as all this is just MFT, and I trade day to day based on my chart interpretation.

richtan ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 14:30) Posted:

Hi victorf,

No offence intended and not intending to start a war with u but just sharing my view tat u seems to contradict wat u said, noted tat u did use the ambiguous word like "correction", "consolidation", see your post in red highlight.

Anyway, I dun see anything wrong with using such words as reading the mkt is not a precise science, the mkt is fluid n dynamic, ever-changing, so there is always ambiguous and another possible alternative in TA chart reading:

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors 4Go to Message

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market has choosen choice 2 (imply it will not touch 3000 in near term)...stick to my latest call now....though some stocks will still rally due to its low valuation

Call: STI will consolidate all the way down by breaking below support 2420 by next May 2010 all the way to 1800 (best buy for the next bull cycle in year 2013/2014)

In the last call (STI should move towards the 2500-2600 region by August (one should take profit for shares bought between last October 2008-March 2009), i have executed the plan (except 1 to 2 long term counters) and made good profit...good luck

victorf ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 14:16) Posted:

as always, i gave very precise date and very precious index point and let market prove me whether i am right or wrong...no use of ambiguous word like "correction", "consolidation", "profit taking", "worst is over", etc. as always in the news and analysts. Good luck :)

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Hi victorf,

No offence intended and not intending to start a war with u but just sharing my view tat u seems to contradict wat u said, noted tat u did use the ambiguous word like "correction", "consolidation", see your post in red highlight.

Anyway, I dun see anything wrong with using such words as reading the mkt is not a precise science, the mkt is fluid n dynamic, ever-changing, so there is always ambiguous and another possible alternative in TA chart reading:

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors 4Go to Message

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market has choosen choice 2 (imply it will not touch 3000 in near term)...stick to my latest call now....though some stocks will still rally due to its low valuation

Call: STI will consolidate all the way down by breaking below support 2420 by next May 2010 all the way to 1800 (best buy for the next bull cycle in year 2013/2014)

In the last call (STI should move towards the 2500-2600 region by August (one should take profit for shares bought between last October 2008-March 2009), i have executed the plan (except 1 to 2 long term counters) and made good profit...good luck

victorf ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 14:16) Posted:

as always, i gave very precise date and very precious index point and let market prove me whether i am right or wrong...no use of ambiguous word like "correction", "consolidation", "profit taking", "worst is over", etc. as always in the news and analysts. Good luck :)

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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

x 1

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Hi Bintang,

U r most welcome, but I hope u dun mind let me correct a bit of wat u said.

I do give advice on TA on a few counters but not possible on every counters

Bintang ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 11:44) Posted:

Hi richtan , thank u so much too for your valuable advice in TA on every counter , n the encouragement from your post that make me have great belief in holding n buying of good counters that you mentioned , thanks again .

richtan ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 11:25) Posted:

Hi Bintang,

Many thanks for your concurrence with my views, I also wish u "HUAT AHH!!" for all your trades.

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Nah..Nah...Nah... I m just a private stock trader sharing my years of trading experience, giving back to this forum wat I have benefited from this forum and also learning from all forumers as I adopt an open-minded attitude and receptive to others views but do not read and believe blindly but make my own judgement.

But I will not hesitate if I see any misleading, non-factual, ulterior motive post and will make my views known and will likewise, either praise those tat make good post or rate it as "good" as they really deserve it.

buylist ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 11:35) Posted:

Hi Rich,

So are you the newly appointed moderator of this web site? If so please announce to all forumer. TIA

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Wow!!! "Fa-Fa-Fa-Fa"

DnApeh ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 08:08) Posted:

The neck-line i get is 8888 because i use a log scale.

richtan ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 00:31) Posted:

Incidentally, the inverse H&S neckline is also at the confluence of the 90ma and 200ema at about 9000

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Hi erictkw,

Many thanks for sharing this write-up.

Note the red hghlight:

Bob Doll: The US economy and its effect on stock markets

Written by Bob Doll

Tuesday, 01 September 2009 09:00

WITH all the back-and-forth in the markets and the ongoing debate about the strength of the US economic recovery, we thought it would be useful to make a series of broad observations about the economy and the implications for the markets.

We will start with five notes about the US economy and the stock market.

1. Economic data generally continues to be better than expected, which suggests that we are emerging from the longest and deepest recession of the post-WWII period. We believe there is even a possibility of an upside surprise to 3Q GDP growth.

2. While GDP historically has risen sharply following recessions (the average gain for the first three quarters is 6.7%), we do not believe that will be the case this time. Due to continued weakness in the credit markets and ongoing deleveraging, we are expecting GDP growth to be about half of that average over the next three or four quarters.

3. The US corporate sector has done an exceptional job in managing through the economic downturn. Thanks to a combination of reduced labour costs and technological improvements, productivity has increased by almost 2% over the last 12 months, an unprecedented rate for a recessionary environment.

4. There has been widespread concern that depressed consumer spending will hold back overall economic growth. While we share this concern, we would also point out that early stages of economic advances are almost never led by the consumer sector, but by improvements in inventories and capital expenditures.

5. From a markets perspective, investors have now endured two sharp bear markets over the last 10 years. It is reasonable to ask what sort of impact that will have on investor psychology and behaviour, and it is certainly possible that this will prevent some investors from wanting to return to higher-risk assets.

With this backdrop, we can point to both a bullish and a bearish case for the US economy. On the positive side, we would cite widespread stimulus and exceptionally low interest rates around the world, which have improved the global money supply and have helped the global economy to regain its footing, particularly in the emerging-markets sector. Additionally, global trade levels have picked up. In the corporate arena, productivity has improved and corporate profits have also begun to recover. The US housing sector has begun to bottom. On the labour-market front, jobs are still being lost, but the pace has slackened noticeably. Finally, we would point to continued low inflation, some improvements in credit markets and higher equity prices.

The bearish case for the US economy starts with the acknowledgement that the banking system remains troubled and is still not back to functioning at normal levels. Credit-related issues remain, and we expect the deleveraging cycle to continue for several more years. Additionally, the consumer sector remains under pressure and the savings rate continues to rise. The high unemployment level is also a source of concern, and we do not believe that the unemployment rate has yet peaked. Also, a rapid ly expanding federal budget deficit is a risk, as are deteriorating state and local budgets and the probability of higher tax rates for individuals and, potentially, businesses.

On balance, we continue to believe that we are emerging from the recession and are entering a period of positive, but subpar, growth levels. From an equity-market perspective, such an environment might actually be better than a period of rapid recovery, since periods of exceptionally high economic growth trigger inflationary pressures. Equities typically do quite well when the economy is experiencing a combination of robust stimulus measures, low inflation and low, but positive, growth rates.

Looking ahead, we acknowledge that markets have come a long way in a short period of time, which could make stocks vulnerable to some sort of corrective action. As we have seen over the past couple of months, investors are highly attuned to the tone of economic data and policymakers’ decisions, and a shift in either could represent a potential risk. Nevertheless, we believe the prevailing environment is a good one for stocks, and we believe the cyclical bull market remains in effect, suggesting that equities have further to go in the intermediate term.

erictkw ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 11:26) Posted:

Bob Doll: The US economy and its effect on stock markets

Written by Bob Doll

Tuesday, 01 September 2009 09:00

WITH all the back-and-forth in the markets and the ongoing debate about the strength of the US economic recovery, we thought it would be useful to make a series of broad observations about the economy and the implications for the markets.

We will start with five notes about the US economy and the stock market.

1. Economic data generally continues to be better than expected, which suggests that we are emerging from the longest and deepest recession of the post-WWII period. We believe there is even a possibility of an upside surprise to 3Q GDP growth.

2. While GDP historically has risen sharply following recessions (the average gain for the first three quarters is 6.7%), we do not believe that will be the case this time. Due to continued weakness in the credit markets and ongoing deleveraging, we are expecting GDP growth to be about half of that average over the next three or four quarters.

3. The US corporate sector has done an exceptional job in managing through the economic downturn. Thanks to a combination of reduced labour costs and technological improvements, productivity has increased by almost 2% over the last 12 months, an unprecedented rate for a recessionary environment.

4. There has been widespread concern that depressed consumer spending will hold back overall economic growth. While we share this concern, we would also point out that early stages of economic advances are almost never led by the consumer sector, but by improvements in inventories and capital expenditures.

5. From a markets perspective, investors have now endured two sharp bear markets over the last 10 years. It is reasonable to ask what sort of impact that will have on investor psychology and behaviour, and it is certainly possible that this will prevent some investors from wanting to return to higher-risk assets.

With this backdrop, we can point to both a bullish and a bearish case for the US economy. On the positive side, we would cite widespread stimulus and exceptionally low interest rates around the world, which have improved the global money supply and have helped the global economy to regain its footing, particularly in the emerging-markets sector. Additionally, global trade levels have picked up. In the corporate arena, productivity has improved and corporate profits have also begun to recover. The US housing sector has begun to bottom. On the labour-market front, jobs are still being lost, but the pace has slackened noticeably. Finally, we would point to continued low inflation, some improvements in credit markets and higher equity prices.

The bearish case for the US economy starts with the acknowledgement that the banking system remains troubled and is still not back to functioning at normal levels. Credit-related issues remain, and we expect the deleveraging cycle to continue for several more years. Additionally, the consumer sector remains under pressure and the savings rate continues to rise. The high unemployment level is also a source of concern, and we do not believe that the unemployment rate has yet peaked. Also, a rapid ly expanding federal budget deficit is a risk, as are deteriorating state and local budgets and the probability of higher tax rates for individuals and, potentially, businesses.

On balance, we continue to believe that we are emerging from the recession and are entering a period of positive, but subpar, growth levels. From an equity-market perspective, such an environment might actually be better than a period of rapid recovery, since periods of exceptionally high economic growth trigger inflationary pressures. Equities typically do quite well when the economy is experiencing a combination of robust stimulus measures, low inflation and low, but positive, growth rates.

Looking ahead, we acknowledge that markets have come a long way in a short period of time, which could make stocks vulnerable to some sort of corrective action. As we have seen over the past couple of months, investors are highly attuned to the tone of economic data and policymakers’ decisions, and a shift in either could represent a potential risk. Nevertheless, we believe the prevailing environment is a good one for stocks, and we believe the cyclical bull market remains in effect, suggesting that equities have further to go in the intermediate term.

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Hi Bintang,

Many thanks for your concurrence with my views, I also wish u "HUAT AHH!!" for all your trades.

Bintang ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 11:02) Posted:

Yes richtan , I agree with u , alway buy when panic or people selling . Now is the beginning of the new bull run , keeping good stocks are worthy for longer term , especially the counters like Midas n Rotary with good FA n TA .

richtan ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 10:24) Posted:

As per my chart analysis, once it breaks above 0.91, it will head towards 1.14, so ask yourself, is it better to buy now at a lower price instead of waiting till it break 0.91 to chase after it and end up buying at a higher price (remember Dr. Chan's newsletter reminder).

But dyodd n BOSAYOR and set your stop-loss.

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Ooops, my sentence is incomplete, should be:

Hi iPunter,

Many thanks for your compliments, u make me feel appreciated n my head swell but really, I m not blowing my trumpet, it is good to print it out, I even laminate it myself n paste on my walls behind my trading screen to remind myself to post it whenever I noticed any newbies treating trading like gambling or making any un-knowledgeable post to remind them.

richtan ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 11:04) Posted:

Hi iPunter,

Many thanks for your compliments, u make me feel appreciated n my head swell but really, I m not blowing my trumpet, it is good to print it out, I even laminate it myself n paste on my walls behind my trading screen to remind myself.

iPunter ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 09:53) Posted:

Hope many newbies have already followed my advice and printed out RichTan's post below.

For others, please don't procastinate... do it now!

Frame it up with a documant holder and place it next to your computer...

Because if you don't do this you'll definitely forget everything there.

Then it will be a waste of RichTan's good effort...

One must always recognise good value when one encounters it... Smiley