Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 06-Nov-2008 22:26 |
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DUN BUY NOW WAIT FOR WAT,,,,,,,,,,,
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wow louis, your xmas came in a time warp eh? :P anyhow, i just hope forumers, especially newbies, learn to weed out white noises and misinformation in public, anonymous places like forum boards. kawaiiboi is right: for those who are new to the market and/or who don't know TA/FA, it's really better to wait and enter, lock in for 6 mths (or more like a year), than to try and risk entries/exits every day. less "cool", of course, but then, the market isn't a place for play. there is serious money and serious work here, and equally hungry sharks waiting to eat up any fresh-faced, gungho newbie. wenwen, CWQuah has explained shorting already. Key thing to note is that you are no longer allowed 3 days buy back; you need to cover it back within the same day if you're not on CFD. which immediately makes risk/reward unworthy most of the time already. Also, not all brokers will allow 1 day shorting now; you need to check with yours. CFD shorting: be careful that you didn't select to short a stock that dropped, then gets suspended. Contra: Most settlement periods are T+3 days, ie, after your transaction, you have 3 days to pay up. There forms a loophole hence. If you can sell the counter within the 3 days, most brokerages will net off the transaction, hence you lock in whatever difference between the buy-sell price. That is known as a contra trade. It's literally making money out of nothing. Be aware however that it isn't as easy as it sounds. Due to the small size of the s'pore market, contra traps abound. Especially in volatile markets like this. So unless your technical skills are good, it's not advisable, since overall, most will lose rather than gain, esp if their settlement period is T+3.
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| 05-Nov-2008 11:29 |
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DOW
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yea, likely obama. he captured two of the swing states already. in any case, history--or destiny--is on his side. skin colour, the choice of palin on the opposition, and with this economic crisis, only middle america (the red-neck land of "god, guns and gays") would vote mccain. the republicans messed up when they failed to vote through the bailout package the last time. even his grandmother's death (though this sounds cold) puts uncertain voters on his side; the image of the fillial grandson. doesn't quite matter who becomes president though; if you run through their platforms, they're similar. and neither said where the money is going to come from for all their reforms. |
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| 04-Nov-2008 14:21 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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hmm... abt 10 years in the markets bah. or 7 years if you want to be legal.  had some advantages though: started out with an internship in a foreign fund house; so literally sat beside them and saw them doing the trades etc.
from there, you learn to relate it to the charts. helps that i have been interested in psychology for a long while. so you blend together: human patterns of behaviour, the charts, the reading of sentiment. FA is relatively new to me though: credit to shplayer and victorian for kindly teaching me in this aspect.  as for forex, i'm just a newbie there. only started out this year cos stocks didn't give enough margin of safety from abt jul (which was abt when i started doing forex). uphill learning process.
the rest of it is just practice, really. i read ARs almost everyday (since i consider my FA to be weak). Even for things i'm not vested in. it's all part of training oneself. there's no shortcut to success. actually i'd say that i'm not yet happy with myself: i can still be better. so still a long journey to go. 
shd add here that i have no degree or 'proper certification'. the only experience i have is, literally, from the market itself. so those wanting to learn from me should note this point, since i understand that certs are very important to s'poreans: i'm not going to pretend to be some certified expert or whatever. i'm just an ordinary person who grew up on the market's streets. cheers! |
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| 04-Nov-2008 13:55 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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hi richtan, DCA = dollar cost average/averaging. it's a method of putting in your funds in separate portions into the market, so you can average up or down your buy price. a lot of insurance planners and financial advisors will tell you to do this: put aside a fixed sum of money monthly, and go in no matter what the market is, so that over the years, your cost price is low. To me, that's right principle, wrong application. eg, imagine if you DCA cosco from its peak monthly from 8.2 to now. the only thing you'd be facing is a certain scenario known as *moths fly out of wallet*. 
For one thing, DCA is mainly for longterm investors (think 5 year horizon or more). For another, you really need to choose your counters well. For a third, it isn't just blindly putting in your money every month: the proper way to DCA is via technicals. Those wanting to apply it on CD/XD plays need to be careful too: i have to stress here that not all counters will go back up to their CD levels. Some just fade away. cheers! |
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| 31-Oct-2008 17:30 |
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Predict when this financial turmoil will end
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ie, singaporeans become an even lesser minority in their own country (natural born singaporeans+ PRs currently are 1 out of 3 here). costs of electricity, water, housing goes up. wages remain down due to "global competition and the need to remain competitive". Our old people can become maids, cleaners and cooks for the foreigners *wow! still employable at 65!*. No minimum wages, long hours. Kids, if you study hard, you can become a minister, which is the best job to have. Iron rice bowl, no need to worry even if you screw up, will have cover. If you don't, maybe you can be lucky and become a tourist guide here. Earn 3k a month, pay 500k for public housing that is 99 year leasehold. in effect, renting the place. For which we're expected to be grateful. FYI: there is talk that the Marina IR may not go up as fast. Building has been delayed. YTD, Las Vegas Sands has dropped in share px from ~US$100 to US$10.38. Moreover, they took a loan of more than US$5 bil, of which merrill lynch and Lehman Brothers were the underwriters. Along with our three local banks. No one ever wondered why the US credit swap lines were extended to singapore, out of so many other asian countries? |
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| 31-Oct-2008 17:20 |
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Relationship Managers Stories
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huh. not like the ppl with ivy league degrees are fairing any better. look at all the mess created in wall street by these so-called top brains. Wharton school of business, anyone? degree doesn't beat real life experience in the end, where the market is concerned. |
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| 31-Oct-2008 17:10 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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haha. being amazed is distinct from being puzzled. this has been a highly profitable traders market, as i'm sure someone with your vast experience will concur. hehe. weekend! cheers! |
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| 31-Oct-2008 15:10 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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amazing. STI is holding up even tho HSI has broken like 600 pts after lunch, the UJ went south and DJIA futures turned from positive to negative. o_0 | ||
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| 31-Oct-2008 14:00 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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carry looks to be unwinding. currencies v volatile now. 80 pip swings up and down on the UJ for past 45 min. to take care on afternoon session. may be v volatile if carries over into equities. | ||
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| 30-Oct-2008 17:17 |
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Predict when this financial turmoil will end
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agree 101%. human nature never changes. people are people. they are creatures of habit. and that is how patterns form; it is what we techies read. so when we read charts, what we essentially read, is the map of human behaviour. the swing of the pendulum between the shifting sands of greed, hope and fear. no more, no less.
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| 30-Oct-2008 17:05 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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thanks CWquah for helping out. :) yuppers. dividend play strategy: you are buying in for the dividend (CD), you sell XD. the hope is that the fall is less than the dividend payout. And no, it's not an 'automatic' adjustment. there are some counters which do not fall XD either. A better strategy for good counters actually is this: 1) Buy 1/2 of your intended lots CD. preferably before the run up period. (there tends to be a run up a week or so before the div payout date, usu the px of the div. eg, if dividend is 5c, you'll see px of stock run up before that by more than 5c. you want to get in before the px runs up.). 2) Take the dividend. 3) DCA in at the low XD. the other 1/2 of your funds. 4) Stock goes up to CD px, sell all. So this way, you lock in dividend returns plus some capital gains. Note that you can only do the above for good blue chips and FA stocks. and pls pay attention to current climate as well. it is NOT a guarantee that the price will go back up to the CD price. hope this helps. cheers! |
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| 30-Oct-2008 17:00 |
Yanlord Land
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Lord of China Prop
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wah. bad post rating again. typical singaporean behaviour. tsk. don't know how to see things for what they really are. Very well. FA of yl, as of their last AR (aug 14th). Sensible people can judge for themselves: PAT: Gross profit margin increased phenomenally, however, net profit was NM. (sign of higher expenses) Total debt increased: S$1.33bil cf to previous S$998 mil. Cash flow: down, previous 991mil to current 674 mil Share float: 1.8billion, with 12 million option shares outstanding. EPS: 3.46c, cf to previous year loss of 1.27c (a good thing.) NAV: 0.87 cf to previous 0.84. Which means yl is actually trading slightly below current NAV. (good thing) As with all companies, never totally pros or cons. You need to weigh for yourself. Does yl have plus points? Definitely. But in judging what to buy, you also need to look at forward earnings visibility. What you need to note is that they could report so high earnings, because they've factored in 'other payables' already. (P23 of their AR). ie, in this current market, where there's a real risk of default, ppl may choose to forfeit the deposit and lose the apartments they bought. Which is where the caveat for yl lies, esp since their debt is high and cash flow has decreased. These are real FA reasons. Not emotive, irrational snap judgments. -------- TA (which is very distinct from FA, pls note. heehee.): READ BETWEEN THE LINES, folks. "yl is a trader's counter btw. and what's surprising is that its fall hasn't been as bad as its other S play counterparts, namely, yzj and cosco. anybody's guess where this counter will go to. " perhaps i should have been less subtle and put "what's not surprising". 
cheers! |
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| 29-Oct-2008 22:21 |
Yanlord Land
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Lord of China Prop
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yl is in the china property market. FA-wise, not good forward looking, as china property has been cooling since last year. ie, can expect rerating of NAV when it issues its report. yl is a trader's counter btw. and what's surprising is that its fall hasn't been as bad as its other S play counterparts, namely, yzj and cosco. anybody's guess where this counter will go to. |
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| 29-Oct-2008 22:14 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yup trader88. range play of consolidation mode. if ranges aren't wide enough, it's no go for play. mail you privately. cheers! |
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| 29-Oct-2008 16:10 |
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Predict when this financial turmoil will end
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knightbridge, what you're talking about is the ideal, of course. but think about it: when has our government ever protected the people from the bad side of globalisation? between the hay bees of the heartland and the big wealthy foreigners who come in to invest, of course our govt would support the foreigners. the lehman minibonds episode should tell people all they need to know already: in HK, their city counsellors tell their people and help their people to fight for their rights. In s'pore, we black out the news that DBS is paying the HKers, and our ministers instead urge the people not to file lawsuits. it's a simple question: how can those who are at the top, most of whom have never even lived in a HDB flat, know how much a recession afflicts the poor and middle-class? They're still making their 1.9mil salary (up from 1.2mil before, nice jump of 50% increase, while wage earners see inflation eating away their salaries), their money is not the CPF scheme. The people at the top only see the 'big picture'. ie, bring in more foreigners. Already, as singaporeans, we're minorities in our own country. the idea of funds is to make money: who would care if they make it from the unknowing retailers? only the bottom line counts. That's why we're Singapore Inc, and not a "homeland" or "motherland".
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| 29-Oct-2008 15:38 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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board shakeout. shortterm direction is unclear, though the mid/longterm direction is still the same. whipsaws either way will kill. it's a very tightly controlled game to shake out both longs and shorts. even the warrants aren't reflecting sti movement any longer: market makers skewing the picture. best to stay flat if you're not in. fyi only, caveat applies. |
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| 28-Oct-2008 10:52 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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if we follow patterns, it's prepping for a large move down. i peg 9403 upper cap; thereafter, a move down of at least 500 pips. others, pls stop speculating on numbers lah. you're only scaring yourselves. 1500, 1,350 then 1,150 are the support levels. note: a support level is just that: a line. what determines buy/sell is the price-vol action around that line. hehe, arbitrager, if even you are scared of the market, how about hay bees like us. :P
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| 27-Oct-2008 18:50 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yuppers CWquah. wed is the US rate cut, anyone knows when the ECB rate cut is? intervention in the EU now i suspect. aussie intervened earlier too. lol. for those still asking should i buy: SPH is your weathervane. when SPH collapses out of its range, that's a key sign that even conservative investors are leaving the market. |
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| 27-Oct-2008 17:27 |
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Hang Seng just dropped 11%!!
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tanglinboy, operative word being theory. korea cut interest rates, which is why the HSI went back up from its tantrum. lol. all eyes on the ol' dow tonight now. sti shd have rebound end this week-early next week; the only qn is what we fall to before the rebound.
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| 27-Oct-2008 17:22 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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rogue's right actually. the pic from the US/UK/ASEAN side is clear. for me now, the main bogeyman is china. all the more so because their leaders do not seem to have an accurate picture of what's happening on the ground. THey concluded their recent party meeting with the feel-good statements about china's economy growing along swimmingly and domestic market doing well. (-_-"). those thinking that china can save the world should think twice. even PM Lee already said in today's papers that the china domestic market cannot make up for the shortfalll in the US/UK market. ppl with china sources will also know some things on the ground that their leaders have not yet realised (or realised, but due to the 'face' mentality, do not want to admit: as with sars, the melamine scandal, etcetc): factories are closing by the day in china, and property prices in some areas have dropped by 50% as of the last year. Moreover, china may have lots of foreign reserves, and a much-vaunted QDII fund coming out, which a lot are hoping will 'save the world'. We should note here though that china's fund managers are inexperienced compared to their foreign counterparts. so what you're likely to see is foreign managers issuing buy calls, then dumping onto the china managers, and leaving them to hold the baby globally. the collapse of the SSE from its peak of 5k+ should already highlight to many the inexperience of Chinese fund managers here. you don't need china to fail: you only need it to grow at single digits for the next few years, and that will drag the rest of the world down, because everyone has factored in that china will grow in double-digits for the next few years. in other words, the red flags are already up.
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