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DBS Group Research . Equity 27 May 2011

BUY S$2.00 STI : 3,123.70
Price Target : 12-month S$ 2.86

Sevan is in rough seas
• Sevan Drilling’s parent - Sevan Marine - faces financial distress and CEO steps down.
• Raises concerns over default risk, cancellation and delay of contract awards to Cosco.
• LOI may not be converted to a contract but cancellation risk is low.
• Maintain BUY and S$2.86 TP.
Sevan Marine undergoing financial restructuring. Sevan Marine, parent company of Cosco’s customer – Sevan Drilling, said it failed to proceed with the rights issue of US$275m due to a sharp plunge in share price (-67% since 20 May) and anticipated breach of minimum liquidity requirements. Sevan
Marine has engaged ABG Sundal Collier, DnB NOR, Pareto Securities and SEB Enskilda to address a financial and strategic restructuring package for Sevan Marine. Further uncertainties also arise with the CEO, Jan Erik Tveteraas, stepping down. Impact to Cosco... Cosco’s customer is Sevan Drilling, not the parent. Though, concerns could be elevated on Sevan Drilling’s financing capability and business continuity if its parent enters into Chapter 11. Sevan Drilling has one rig (Sevan Brasil) under construction with Cosco and has signed LOIs for two additional similar rigs worth US$1.05bn.

Hence, potential risk to Cosco could come from:

1) default payment/cancellation of Sevan Brasil

2) LOIs for the two rigs not exercised and

3) Ability to finance the remaining 80% of the LOIs (20% raised through recent IPO). …mitigated by proper measures in place. 30-40% completion with progressive payments made for Sevan Brasil, back-to-back charter contracts to Petrobras, and purchase of insurance coverage have minimized the cancellation risk of Sevan Brasil. As for financing, Sevan Drilling is in the process of terminating cross default clauses between Sevan Drilling and
Sevan Marine to avoid potential loan withdrawals. Near term overhang due to uncertainty. The risk of Sevan’s LOIs not being exercise should be offset by buoyant offshore outlook and other non-Sevan projects under tender. Offshore outlook remains intact with over US$2.5bn of non-Sevan
projects under tender. Maintain BUY and S$2.86 TP.

Sevan headwinds ahead
Sevan Marine undergoing financial restructuring. Through a company release on 26th May, Sevan Marine (parent company of Cosco’s customer – Sevan Drilling), updated investors that it failed to proceed with the right issue of US$275m due to the sharp plunge in share price (-67% since 20 May) and anticipated breach of minimum liquidity requirements by the end May 2011. Sevan Marine has
engaged ABG Sundal Collier, DnB NOR Markets, Pareto Securities and SEB Enskilda to address a financial and strategic restructuring package for Sevan Marine. CEO is also stepping down. The CEO of Sevan Marine and Sevan Drilling, Jan Erik Tveteraas, is also stepping down as CEO for both companies, citing personal reasons. This does not appear positive and is adding uncertainties to the
current messy situation. Customer is Sevan Drilling. Cosco’s customer is Sevan Drilling, not the parent - Sevan Marine. However, concerns could be elevated on Sevan Drilling’s financing capability
and business continuity if its parent enters into Chapter 11. Sevan Drilling is now operating one rig and is expected to take delivery of its 2nd rig - Sevan Brasil - from Cosco yard by 1Q12. In addition, it has signed LOIs for two similar rigs with Cosco worth US$1.05bn. Potential negative impact to Cosco could come from:

1) Default payment / cancellation of Sevan Brasil, which is 30-40% completed with progressive payment.
2) Defer or withdrawal of the LOIs for two cylindrical rigs. 3) Low chance of exercising the two options for two similar rigs.
4) Financing capability to fund 80% of the two LOIs (remaining 20% by proceeds raised through recent IPO). … are mitigated. We believe the likelihood of cancellation of Sevan Brasil is slim. 30-40% completions with milestone payments, back-to-back charter contracts from Petrobras,
and purchase of insurance coverage have minimized the cancellation and default risk. As for financing, Sevan Drilling is in the process of terminating cross default clauses between Sevan Drilling and Sevan Marine to avoid potential loan withdrawals. Fortunately, Cosco is covered by insurance, which will refund up to 90% of outstanding payments in the event of a cancellation. In addition, Cosco has the priority to sell the vessels in the event of bankruptcy.

Reason for Report : Newsflow on Sevan Marine
Potential Catalyst: Offshore contract wins
Analyst
Janice CHUA +65 6398 7954
janicechua@dbsvickers.com
HO Pei Hwa +65 6398 7968
PeiHwa@dbsvickers.com

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26-May-2011 21:28

COSCO SHP SG / CoscoCorp

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DBS Group Research . Equity 26 May 2011

Cosco Corporation (Bloomberg: COS SP | Reuters: COSC.SI)

BUY S$1.95, Price Target: S$2.86

Analyst:

janicechua@dbsvickers.com

HO Pei Hwa +65 6398 7968

peihwa@dbsvickers.comJanice CHUA +65 6398 7954

Secures two jackup orders from KS Energy

Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg

Orders for two jack-up from KS Energy. Cosco

announced over lunch that it has secured orders for two

units of jackup drilling rig worth US$360m in total from

KS Drilling Pte.Ltd, a subsidiary of KS Energy Limited.

The first rig is scheduled to be delivered in 3Q13 and

the second rig in 1Q14.

A vote of confidence. The jack-ups will be built at

Cosco Nantong, based on LeTOURNEAU WORKHORSE

Class design. Upon completion, these rigs will be one of

the world's deepest drilling rigs with drilling depth of up

to 35,000 ft, capable of operating in 400 feet water

depth and with accommodation for 150 persons

onboard. It features an offline stand building capability

to handle drill pipes efficiently and is equipped with a

capacity hook-load of 2 million pounds, boosting overall

rig performance and productivity. We see the award of

sophisticated rig orders as an accolade and vote of

confidence in Cosco's offshore capability.

YTD wins make up 67% of our assumption. This will

bring Cosco's YTD firm contract wins to US$637m.

Taking into account the LOIs of two cylindrical rigs from

Sevan (worth US$1.05bn), which we believe is 'almost'

in the bag, total order wins would amount to approx.

US$1.7bn, making up 67% of our order win

assumption of US$2.5bn.

More to come. As highlighted in our previous reports,

the latest wins are among the robust US$2bn contracts

in the pipeline. The new wins serve as a harbinger to

more offshore contracts for Cosco. Recent price

weakness presents an attractive entry point to buy into

Cosco ahead of contract wins. No change to our

estimates, Buy recommendation and TP of $2.86.

DBS Group Research . Equity 26 May 2011

Singapore

Flash Note

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R e la t iv e In d e x

C o sco C o rp o ra t io n (LH S ) R e la t iv e S T I IN D E X (R H S )

Forecasts and Valuation

FY Dec (S$ m) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F

Turnover 2,899 3,861 4,732 5,865

EBITDA 341 552 667 757

Pre-tax Profit 179 402 470 558

Net Profit 110 249 252 303

Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 110 221 252 303

EPS (S cts) 4.9 11.1 11.3 13.5

EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 4.9 9.9 11.3 13.5

EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (64) 101 14 20

Diluted EPS (S cts) 4.9 11.1 11.3 13.5

Net DPS (S cts) 3.0 4.0 5.6 6.8

BV Per Share (S cts) 48.4 53.5 60.8 68.7

PE (X) 39.7 17.5 17.3 14.4

PE Pre Ex. (X) 39.7 19.8 17.3 14.4

P/Cash Flow (X) 16.6 10.9 10.4 9.1

EV/EBITDA (X) 13.1 9.2 6.8 5.6

Net Div Yield (%) 1.5 2.1 2.9 3.5

P/Book Value (X) 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8

Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH 0.1 CASH CASH

ROAE (%) 9.9 21.8 19.7 20.9

Earnings Rev (%): - -

Consensus EPS (S cts): 11.6 13.4

Other Broker Recs: B: 5 S: 6 H: 4

Flash Note

Cosco Corporation

Page 2

DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (> 20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

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17-May-2011 21:48

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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ACQUISITION OF SHARES IN GOLDNATURE INVESTMENTS LIMITED
The Board of Directors of Genting Singapore PLC (“
Northspring Global Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, has entered into a sale
and purchase agreement for the acquisition (the “
paid up share capital of Goldnature Investments Limited for a consideration of US$60 million
(“
Goldnature Investments Limited is a company incorporated in the British Virgin Islands
(“
share capital of Montbella Limited. Montbella Limited is a company incorporated in the BVI
and has portfolio interests in natural resource ventures. Upon completion of the Acquisition,
Goldnature Investments Limited and Montbella Limited will be subsidiaries of the Company.
Based on the unaudited management accounts of Goldnature Investments Limited,
Goldnature Investments Limited has a net asset value of US$16 million. The Consideration
was arrived at on an arm's length and willing-buyer-willing-seller basis. The Consideration
will be paid in cash upon the completion of the Acquisition.
The Acquisition is not expected to have any material impact on the consolidated net tangible
assets and earnings per share of the Company for the financial year ending 31 December
2011.
None of the Directors or substantial shareholders of the Company has any interest, direct or
indirect, in the Acquisition other than through their respective shareholdings in the Company.
For and on behalf of the BoardCompany”) wishes to announce thatAcquisition”) of 68.63% of the issued andConsideration”).BVI”), and is an investment holding company with a 51% interest in the issued and paid up
Genting Singapore PLC
Tan Hee Teck
Director / President and Chief Operating Officer

17 May 2011

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16-May-2011 23:19

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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Genting Universal Studios Singapore will hold its Grand Opening Celebrations on 28 May 2011, a day when celebrities and guests come together to celebrate Southeast Asia’s Number One theme park.

http://www.rwsentosa.com/language/en-US/Attractions/UniversalStudiosSingapore/GrandOpening

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16-May-2011 23:11

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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Genting Madagascar: A Crate Adventure™ (Opening 16th May 2011)

four heroes - Alex, Marty, Melman and Gloria - on a river boat adventure as you arrive at the shores of Madagascar. Defeat the foosas at the rim of the bubbly volcano cauldron with the aid of the technically-savvy but psychotic penguins.

http://www.rwsentosa.com/language/en-US/Attractions/UniversalStudiosSingapore/RidesShows/Madagascar/ACrateAdventure

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13-May-2011 23:54

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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AmFraser

RWS – Record earnings in first quarter ROBUST VIP rolling revenues and a high VIP win rate helped Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) set new earnings records in the first quarter, mainboard-listed Genting Singapore announced yesterday. For the first quarter ended March 31, the casino raked in a whopping S$537.9 million in Ebitda, a profitability measure meaning earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, up from S$389.8 million in the preceding quarter. Its Ebitda margin was 59 per cent, up from 50 per cent in the fourth quarter. 'We continue to see strong VIP play, brought about by strong overseas visitations,' said Genting Singapore spokeswoman Lee Sin Yee. Aaron Fischer, head of consumer & gaming research with CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, said Genting's first-quarter VIP rolling revenue was 'exceptionally strong', with 19 per cent growth compared to the previous quarter. Casino VIP rolling revenue now accounts for 62 per cent of gross gaming revenue. 'This is really surprising as no junkets are licensed. Although generally, we had expected VIP (rolling revenue) to be dominant as Las Vegas Sands management (in its Q1 earnings call last week) has said RWS was doing much better in this category than them,' Mr Fischer said.

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/May09-May13/110513_-_AmFraser_Morning_Buzz_Singtel_OCBC_SGXRWS.pdf

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13-May-2011 23:33

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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Genting Singapore Plc - 1Q11 results - Dealing the good luck cards
1Q11 core net profit, at 29% of our full-year forecast and 26% of consensus, is above
expectations. The main discrepancy was stronger-than-expected gaming revenue
from the VIP segment, which significantly bumped up EBITDA margins. Although
1Q11 VIP revenue was driven by above-theoretical win rates, we were previously too
conservative in our topline estimates. Factoring in higher revenue assumptions, we
raise our FY11-13 earnings estimates by 8-26%. Our earnings upgrade nudges up our
end-CY11 SOP-based target price from S$2.70 to S$2.79,
with an unchanged CY12 EV/EBITDA of 16x for its gaming operations. We see re-rating catalysts from: 1)sustained market leadership

2) increased patronage from the opening of amenities

and 3) the licensing of junkets, which should further boost VIP volume and margins.

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/May09-May13/SIN-Daybreak-_130511CIMB.pdf

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13-May-2011 23:17

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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OCBC Research
Genting Singapore: Maintain BUY with S$2.53 fair value
Good start to 2011.
Revenue for 1Q11 saw a 166.3% YoY (+17.0% QoQ) increase to S$922.6m
the gaming portion came in at S$804.4m, or 87.2% of overall revenue,
buoyed by good win percentage and gaming volume non-gaming contributed
around S$109.2m, or 11.8% of total, aided by steady growth in Universal
Studio Singapore (USS) and the hotels. Net profit surged 312.6% YoY
(also up 233.3% QoQ) to S$305.4m. According to management, the IR
(integrated resort) delivered its highest quarterly adjusted EBITDA of
S$537.9m, with margin of 59%.Genting Singapore (GS) made a good start to 2011.
Robust operating statistics.
operates some 589 tables, with 30% set aside for VIP. It also has about
2000 slot machines, with 360 being ETG (electronic table gaming) machines.
GS adds that it has about 10% of available gaming space left for expansion.
GS has also achieved a superior hold rate of 3.8% for its VIP segment,
recovering very nicely from the first quarter when the hold was at the lower
end of the theoretical 2.8-3.0% range. For the non-casino business, RWS
saw significant contribution from USS and the hotels. According to
management, USS received an average of 7.4k daily visitors in 1Q11, though
down slightly from the 8.3k in 4Q10 (school holiday period), but average
spend was higher at S$88 each versus S$85 in the previous quarter. On
the hotel side, occupancy rate has maintained at 79%, unchanged from
the previous quarter, although the average room rate dipped to S$280 from
S$294.For its gaming business, GS revealed that it
Outlook remains fairly upbeat
continue to do well in the Year of the Rabbit, with strong visitorship in both
VIP and mass segments it also reveals that it will continue to focus on the
overseas premium segment and will not pursue the local mass market.
RWS (Resorts World Sentosa) will steadily add attractions such as the
Maritime Xperiential Museum, Marine Life Park and destination spa by
2012 to reinforce its standing as the IR of choice to all visitors to Asia
although it notes that the completion of the second phase may experience
a slight delay of several months, and has allocated additional resources to
address the issue.. Going forward, GS believes that it will
Maintain BUY.
full-year revenue and core earnings estimates respectively, we do not see
the need to make any adjustments at this stage. As such, our DCF-based

fair value also remains at $2.53. Maintain

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/May09-May13/Market_Pulse-110513-OIR.pdf

With 1Q11 results meeting some 19.5% and 23.2% of ourBUY. (Carey Wong)

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13-May-2011 23:13

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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why make Net profit surged 312.6% no dividend Issue ?

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13-May-2011 12:42

Genting Sing / Traders Lounge - Daily opportunities for everyone

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DBS Group Research

Genting’s 1Q11 above our expectation but in-line with
consensus, driven by higher VIP win rate. We raise our 2011-
12F earnings by 7-9% to factor in stronger-than-expected
ramp-up (eg recent addition of 115 electronic table games).
Upcoming catalysts: a) Opening of two new rides at Universal
Studios b) Phased-completion of Western Zone (Maritime
Museum launching in 2H11) and c) Potential approval of
junkets. We raise our sum-of-parts TP to S$2.90 from S$2.70,
rolling forward RWS’s valuation to 15x 2012F EV/EBITDA

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13-May-2011 12:39

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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12-Apr-2011 22:14

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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DMG & Partners Research

_{Good flow of newbuilding contracts in 1Q11

US$214m new orders for six vessels in Mar 2011. Yangzijiang (YZJ) secured six new orders for US$214m in Mar 2011, lifting its YTD new orders to US$512m for 14 vessels. Pace of order replenishment is on track to surpass FY10 new order wins of US$1.4b. We maintain our EPS forecasts as we have factored in US$2.5b new orders in 2011. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP at S$2.30 pegged to 15x FY11F P/E. Re-rating catalysts are stronger-than-expected new orders from the containership segment and successful expansion into other shipyard related businesses such as offshore marine, ship repair and demolition.

New orders to be delivered in 2012 and 2013. The latest contracts are orders for two units of 82,000DWT bulk carriers, two units of 10,000DWT bulk carriers and two units of 4,800TEU container ships. The vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2012 and 2013. YZJ reported US$5.31b order book as of 31 Dec 2010 and including the new YTD orders, we estimate that YZJ has a total order book of US$5.82b for 145 vessels.

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/Apr11-Apr15/11Apr11-Yangzijiang_buy_Dmg.pdf}

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12-Apr-2011 22:04

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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CIMB Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Steady order flows Secured US$214m orders in March Maintain Outperform. YZJ has secured contracts for six bulk carriers and small container ships altogether worth US$214m. These bring its YTD new contracts to US$512m or 25% of our US$2bn target for 2011. We are still hopeful of sizeable contracts for 10,000 TEU container ships from Seaspan amounting to US$950m and see contract wins and sustainable margins as catalysts for the stock. No change to our earnings estimate or target price of S$2.69, based on 14x CY12 P/E, in line with regional peers. The news US$214m for six vessels. The contracts secured comprise two 82,000 dwt bulk carriers, two 10,000 dwt bulk carriers and two 4,800 TEU container ships. Deliveries have been scheduled for 2012-13. Comments On track to meet our target. We are hopeful that YZJ will be able to meet our US$2bn order-win target for 2011, including 10 potential units of 10,000 TEU container ships from Seaspan (about US$950m) and four 2,500 TEU container ships from Norwegian Torvald Klaveness Group (US$160m). These contracts have surfaced in shipbuilding newswires although no formal announcements have been made by YZJ, pending deposits. Not spared from steel-price hikes, but in better shape than Cosco. If steel prices surge sharply, we see an inevitable impact on YZJ’s margins as seen in 2008. However, with higher gross margins of about 20%, YZJ should be able to weather any spike in steel prices better than Cosco (gross margins 6%). In the worst case, we estimate a 450bp drop in its gross margins to 16% in 2012 (current estimate: 20%), which could eat into 20% of its earnings. Valuation and recommendation Maintain Outperform and target price of S$2.69, based on 14x CY12 P/E, in line with regional peers. YZJ is our preferred shipbuilder given its earnings resilience and proven tight execution. Venturing into larger vessels could improve its status in the containervessel segment, in our opinion. Catalysts are expected from stronger-than-expected order wins, strong quarterly results and margins. http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/Apr11-Apr15/SIN-Daybreak-_120411CIMBARA_Telecom_YZJ.pdf

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12-Apr-2011 12:16

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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DBS Group Research . Equity 12 April 2011

Yangzijiang (Buy, TP: $2.60) has entered into a total of 6 shipbuilding contracts worth S$214.2mil in March 2011. The vessels secured are scheduled for deliveries from 2012 to 2013. With these, Yangzijiang’s announced contract wins stands at USD841mil or 27 vessels from Jan-Apr that makes up 56% of our USD1.5bil order assumption for FY11. Our analyst leaves assumption unchanged for now but potential upgrade will be if there is a massive USD2.2bil order win from Seaspan

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04-Apr-2011 09:21

COSCO SHP SG / CoscoCorp

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Yes Cosco go up 2.11 , next TP $ 2.15 --suport 2/08

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29-Mar-2011 22:31

COSCO SHP SG / CoscoCorp

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Cosco Singapore says Japan not major destination for its ships

Tags: Cosco Corp. Singapore

Written by Bloomberg
Tuesday, 29 March 2011 18:01
Cosco Corp. Singapore said Japan was not a major destination for its dry-bulk ships though operators of its vessels would avoid going to earthquake-hit places near the damaged nuclear plant if they were there. “So far we heard there are still ships calling at Tokyo port, but our ships happen to be not en route to Tokyo,” said Ye Bin Lin, chief financial officer, by phone from Singapore today. The company had about 10 dry-bulk ships leased out on a charter basis and the vessels were usually transporting goods between China, Australia and the Middle East, he said. Read more... Add new comment
Last Updated on Tuesday, 29 March 2011 18:03

http://www.theedgesingapore.com/dailyedge.html

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29-Mar-2011 21:24

COSCO SHP SG / CoscoCorp

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COSCO CORPORATION (SINGAPORE) LIMITED
(Company Registration No. 196100159G)
DELIVERY OF VESSEL
The Board of Directors of COSCO Corporation (Singapore) Limited (the
" Company" ) wishes to announce that COSCO (Zhoushan) Shipyard Co., Ltd
(" COSCO Zhoushan" ), a subsidiary of the Company's 51% owned COSCO
Shipyard Group Co, has delivered a bulk carrier of 57,000 dwt, " JAG RISHI" , to
its Asian buyer.
The delivery documents were signed by and between COSCO Zhoushan and the
buyer on 28 March 2011.
The bulk carrier measures 189.99 meters in LOA (length of all), 32.26 meters in
breadth and 18 meters in depth.
By Order of the Board
Jiang Li Jun

Vice Chairman and President

29 March 2011

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28-Mar-2011 22:30

COSCO SHP SG / CoscoCorp

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DBS Group Research . Equity 28 Mar 2011

Biggest offshore contract

•

strong vote of confidenceBiggest offshore contract from repeat customer is a

•

asset replacement cycleFrontrunner among Chinese offshore players riding the

•

closer to our S$3.16 TP.BUY Robust order flow in 2011 to drive share price

A big leap in offshore.

LOIs for two drilling units worth US$525m each with Sevan.

Total value of US$1.05bn is the biggest single offshore

contract Cosco has secured thus far. In addition, the LOIs

provide options for up to two rigs totaling US$1.05bn. Good

flow of orders from a repeat customer is a vote of confidence

for Cosco’s offshore capability and product quality. Contracts

will be finalised with the approval of listing for Sevan’s drilling

arm to Oslo exchange by April, raising US$350m to fund the

newbuild orders.Cosco announced that it has inked

The start of the party.

footsteps of Singapore rigbuilders. We believe active enquiriesThis sizeable win follows the

received since 4Q10 will translate into firm orders in months

ahead, and hence could re-rate Cosco’s share price, which

has been overshadowed by concerns on dry bulk shipping and

steel cost amidst weak market sentiment. Cosco is emerging

to be a major offshore player in China, its offshore

contribution to revenue is expected to rise from 24% in FY10

to 40% by 2012. It is tendering for offshore orders - FPSOs,

semi-sub rigs and wind turbine installation vessels - totaling

over US$3bn, which provides upside to our new order win

assumptions of US$2bn., if it succeeds in securing them.

Order flow to catalyse share price.

target price of S$3.16, based on blended FY11/12F PE and

P/BV. Catalysts in place are: (1) stronger offshore contract

flows 2) injection of strategic stakes by the parent and 3)

timely shipbuilding delivery. Key risks are steel price increase,

RMB appreciation and weaken balance sheet for balloon

payment term.

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/Mar28-Apr01/cos280311_buy_DBSV.pdfMaintain Buy with

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