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Latest Posts By Peter_Pan - Supreme      About Peter_Pan
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10-Jan-2013 20:25 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 0
x 0
Midas
Keep the orders flowing
China’s rail industry is likely to pick up, as the government increases infrastructure 
investment to drive economic growth.   The Chinese government plans to spend 
between RMB600b and RMB650b in 2013 in rail investment,   and as one of the 
dominant aluminium alloy extrusion products manufacturer for the rail transport 
industry,   we believe   Midas stands to benefit. Its JV (NPRT) is expected to 
turnaround in FY13, supported by its strong order book of RMB9b, with deliveries 
expected from FY13. With the potential for more orders as the demand for train cars 
rises, we think Midas should enjoy a re-rating. Maintain BUY with a TP of S$0.75, 
based on 1.5x FY13 P/B, a 25% discount from its average of 2x.
Government remains committed in its investment in the rail industry. China aims to 
have 18,000 km of high-speed railway by 2015. It was reported that the total railway 
investment could reach RMB1.8t over the next few years (2013 to 2015). China recently 
opened a 2,298 km high-speed line between Beijing and Guangzhou, reflecting its 
commitment to this goal. Trains are essential in China’s transportation system. As train 
ridership rises (especially along intercity routes), the demand for train cars can be 
expected to increase. We think that Midas would stand to benefit from this trend, given that 
it has a ~66% market share.
Plans to increase capacity. With the demand for train cars expected to increase, 
supported by the increased government investment, Midas is expanding its aluminium 
extrusion capacity in Central China. Its new plant in Luoyang, which is expected to be 
ready in 2013, has a capacity of 10,000 tonnes / year (+20% from current levels). At the 
same time, it has a secured an agreement with Luoyang CSR, to supply all its aluminium 
alloy extruded products   and fabricated parts requirements. This added capacity would 
allow Midas to meet the expected increase in demand for train cars, as the   government 
builds more train tracks.
Valuation appears attractive. While order book deliveries are expected from FY13, we 
think the bulk could be in FY14 and FY15, as the government pushes to achieve its 2015 
target. Midas currently trades at 0.9x FY13F P/B. During 2009 and 2011 when the order 
flow was good, Midas traded   at an average of   2.0x P/B. Given the positive outlook for 
China’s rail industry and the potential for more contracts to be awarded, we believe Midas 
deserves a re-rating. Pegging it to 1.5x FY13 P/B, we arrive at a revised TP of S$0.75.


Peter_Pan      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 11:00) Posted:

I don't have the link or report yet. But this is what I was told. Maybe the report will be released to the general public soon.

alfredx      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 10:54) Posted:

Bro, can show us the link? i would like to see what DMG comment and said about the 0.75 price given.
Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Jan-2013 19:25 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Strong buying today. To be continued...
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10-Jan-2013 19:22 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Did you enter?

srichipan      ( Date: 08-Jan-2013 18:51) Posted:



i see. thanks! i probably re-enter once it cross 0.90. Just to be safe 

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 08-Jan-2013 18:46) Posted:

If they are going for strong buying, any short positions are a conflict of long positions
Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Jan-2013 19:20 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Congrats to you!

davidoch      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 13:24) Posted:

Keep GOING.........MIDAS.... we love u...all the way...

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 12:55) Posted:

DMG says expect flows of projects and re-rating.
Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Jan-2013 19:18 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		It is going for 1.40 soon.
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10-Jan-2013 19:15 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		But it's having a reversal soon, you let go so fast. I added on today.

srichipan      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 17:07) Posted:

I sold when I realized it's on a 20 50 MA downtrend. Shocked that I didn't check when I first bought it. Had since move on to another counter. Check my posts and you should know which one.

luketoh      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 17:04) Posted:

Getting very impatient on this sicko baby...
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10-Jan-2013 15:00 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Must have patience, else how to benefit from it.
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10-Jan-2013 14:33 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Yes.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 12:25) Posted:

No.

New123      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 11:57) Posted:

R u still buying


Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Jan-2013 14:10 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Now i hope it don't go up too soon. Considering adding on positions.
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10-Jan-2013 13:49 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		This is a very low PE stock. More upside.

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 11:26) Posted:



Look like it will go above $1 before any  meaningful correction.

vested.
Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Jan-2013 13:25 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Based on DMG's call, there is still 50% more upside.

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 13:21) Posted:



Yummy!Yummy!

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 12:55) Posted:

DMG says expect flows of projects and re-rating.
Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Jan-2013 12:55 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		DMG says expect flows of projects and re-rating.
Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Jan-2013 12:25 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		No.

New123      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 11:57) Posted:

R u still buying ?

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 10:52) Posted:

Recent price action from the beginning of the year is designed to force-out the retail players. More evident from the beginning of this week.
Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Jan-2013 11:23 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		It wants to get out of the no-man's land fast.

alfredx      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 11:17) Posted:

but i don't think everyday will rally.. cause it been rally since june 29 all time low 0.27 till now.. i guess it will stop at somewhere before and rally..

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 11:12) Posted:

This train is now travelling in no-man's land at full-speed and not stopping..
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10-Jan-2013 11:16 Dyna-Mac   /   Dyna-Mac Holdings       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Big fish inside.
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10-Jan-2013 11:12 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 1
x 0 		This train is now travelling in no-man's land at full-speed and not stopping..
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10-Jan-2013 11:08 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Enjoy...More to come. Riding high on the China-Wave.
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10-Jan-2013 11:06 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Yah. Meanwhile just ride the China-Wave.

alfredx      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 11:04) Posted:

ok.. thank you anyway.. cause i brought 0.8 for 94lots.. thinking what the buy call said .. if good and still room to improve for the price i will long and hold.. if not can reach 0.75 i confirm sell..

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 11:00) Posted:

I don't have the link or report yet. But this is what I was told. Maybe the report will be released to the general public soon
Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Jan-2013 11:03 Olam Intl   /   OLAM_OLAM       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Have to play by ear, considering the major shareholders has deep pockets.

tonylim      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 11:01) Posted:

Not all anayst's recommendation can be taken seriously.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 09-Jan-2013 09:22) Posted:

UBS downgrades Olam to 'sell' from 'buy'

UBS downgraded Olam International Ltd  to 'sell' 
from 'buy' and cut its target price to S$1.33 from S$2.95, 
citing uncertainties around the cost of its Gabon project. 
Olam shares were down 0.3 percent at S$1.60 by 0100 GMT, 
around 8 percent below the level they were at before 
short-seller Muddy Waters launched an attack on the commodities 
trading company for its accounting practices and aggressive 
acquisitions. 
UBS said the World Bank now estimates the total cost of the 
Gabon project to be at $1.5 billion to $2 billion, compared with 
Olam's initial estimate of S$1.3 billion. 
" A cost overrun and project delays significantly increase 
the risk to management's target of turning free cash flow 
positive by 2015," said UBS in a note. 
The brokerage also said its bankruptcy analysis of Olam 
shows the company's financial position has deteriorated to below 
financial health levels, but remains above distress levels. 
" A number of concerns have arisen in recent months," said 
UBS, including Olam's earnings quality and growth, deteriorating 
returns on asset investment, the risk of Nigerian export credit 
write-downs, management compensation, the recent share buyback 
considering its capacity expenditure requirements and negative 
free cash flow. 
0901 (0101 GMT) 
(Reporting by Charmian Kok in Singapore Anupama Dwivedi  
charmian.kok@thomsonreuters.com) 


Keywords: MARKETS SINGAPORE STOCKSNEWS/OLAM 


Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Jan-2013 11:00 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		I don't have the link or report yet. But this is what I was told. Maybe the report will be released to the general public soon.

alfredx      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 10:54) Posted:

Bro, can show us the link? i would like to see what DMG comment and said about the 0.75 price given..

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 10-Jan-2013 10:37) Posted:

DMG has just issued a BUY call with a Target Price of $0.75.
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