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Latest Posts By Peter_Pan - Supreme      About Peter_Pan
First   < Newer   3641-3660 of 4497   Older>   Last  

22-Jan-2013 11:38 Olam Intl   /   OLAM_OLAM       Go to Message
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x 0 		That is true.

Obfuscate      ( Date: 22-Jan-2013 11:32) Posted:

Ah gong is not invincible, did not prevent CSM  crashing from US$100 to US$2+ where  its 60% equity interest was eventually sold.
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22-Jan-2013 11:02 Dyna-Mac   /   Dyna-Mac Holdings       Go to Message
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x 0 		JPMorgan is Overweight on Dyna-Mac with a Target Price of $0.64.
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22-Jan-2013 10:51 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 1 		STI 3300 COME MSmileyNEY COME
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22-Jan-2013 10:49 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 1 		A small percentage of money coming out of bonds can buy up many many times of equities.
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22-Jan-2013 10:47 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Current weakness in equities are a result of accumulations by the big boys.
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22-Jan-2013 10:44 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 1 		OCBC bullish on asia equities. Ample liquidity, attractive valuation, the US, European debt issues are the " new normal" . Money coming out of expensive bonds into equities.
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22-Jan-2013 09:22 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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x 0 		Take note.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 21-Jan-2013 11:16) Posted:

Quick punt. Good for baoyu lunch. Distribution seen. Enjoy...
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22-Jan-2013 09:15 Dyna-Mac   /   Dyna-Mac Holdings       Go to Message
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x 0 		Take note.
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22-Jan-2013 08:46 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 1 		STI 3300 COME MSmileyNEY COME
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22-Jan-2013 08:39 Olam Intl   /   OLAM_OLAM       Go to Message
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x 0 		The thing is this one is ah gong's baby. Tough call. Play by ear by placing stop loss.

davidoch      ( Date: 22-Jan-2013 08:20) Posted:



Peter,

so far how good is Kim Eng analyse? already in 1.6k profit will set trailing stop..

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 21-Jan-2013 23:33) Posted:





SELL

Target price: SGD1.30 (Downgraded from SGD1.42)

 

Maybank Kim Eng 


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21-Jan-2013 23:43 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
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x 0 
GOOD VALUE FOR MSmileyNEY
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21-Jan-2013 23:33 Olam Intl   /   OLAM_OLAM       Go to Message
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SELL

Target price: SGD1.30 (Downgraded from SGD1.42)

 

Maybank Kim Eng 
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21-Jan-2013 23:31 Olam Intl   /   OLAM_OLAM       Go to Message
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Olam International

The Capex Cliff

Our analysis on M& A strategy suggests returns slightly below par.

We analyse this measuring management’s original guidance against

actual numbers achieved. Our numbers, which are admittedly

incomplete, suggest that returns are slightly below par rather than a

resounding success. We see higher execution risk from FY14 onwards,

where growth becomes even more dependent on many of these

investments reaching “steady-state”.

Banking on one high-risk Gabon project. We estimate that the

projected earnings from this single-project will make up around 15-20%

of management’s USD1b 2016F net profit target and also a critical part

of turning free-cash flow positive. Given the rapid shale-gas

developments in the US, Olam’s inexperience with executing such a

large-scale project, inherent political risk and delays since then, we

think the risk of this project is not fully-factored into share price.

Front-loaded risk. Our analysis on debt shows a worrying front-loaded

refinancing risk, with SGD3.9b to be either repaid or rolled over within

the next 18 months. This coincides with committed capex of SD1.7b

which is also front-loaded. The recent SGD915m rights issue of bonds

does not eliminate this risk, in our opinion.

Highlights the risk of relying on Mr Market. The Muddy Waters

episode highlighted the risk of its dependence on the debt market,

where a sudden spike up in yields caused damage. Ultimately, we go

back to our previous argument that a company that relies too much on

the uncertainty of the bond market/ equity market (7 equity-linked fund

raising in last 5 years) will always be subjected to a higher risk, which

investors would do well to factor in.

Consensus too optimistic, further downside on higher debt cost.

Our new earnings estimate which exclude bio gains are significantly

below consensus. We think the street has under-estimated higher

overhead and interest costs coming from its capex/ debt buildup. We

factor in the new warrants which are now theoretically dilutive, making

up 16% of existing share capital. Our new TP of SGD1.30 is pegged to

12x FY13F, below its 5-year historical mean of 16X.

Maybank Kim Eng 
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21-Jan-2013 23:29 Olam Intl   /   OLAM_OLAM       Go to Message
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BUY Noble and Wilmar, SELL Olam. Our preferred stock in this sector
is Noble (NOBL SP, BUY, TP SGD1.60), which we believe is most
leveraged to an improvement in economic activity in China and has the
most robust balance sheet. We also upgrade Wilmar to a BUY (TP
SGD4.65) expecting them to show their strength of scale in the current
lacklustre CPO price environment and ongoing tax regime changes. We
maintain Olam as a SELL, with a lower TP of SGD1.30. We see
significant risk from its version of a capex cliff and deem consensus
earnings too optimistic, with further downside on higher debt costs not
factored in.


Maybank Kim Eng 
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21-Jan-2013 23:26 Olam Intl   /   OLAM_OLAM       Go to Message
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x 0 		Definitely.

Hulumas      ( Date: 21-Jan-2013 10:36) Posted:

Not short, but switch to Noble will be much better!

Isolator      ( Date: 21-Jan-2013 10:34) Posted:

Short all you can.... Lol
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21-Jan-2013 23:22 Olam Intl   /   OLAM_OLAM       Go to Message
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  Weekend BT  carried a damaging piece on Olam
penned by Michael Dee,  ex-Morgan Stanley /
Temasek Holdings:
a. Olam spending $18.3 mln of shareholders money
on underwriting fees to firms that are not even
really underwriting, and potentially many millions
more on unenforceable lawsuits, while rejecting
a few hundred thousand dollars for an
independent rating agency review.
b. Olam’s  unrated perpetual shares were sold
thorough private banking channels that should
know better: Dee said “having spent 20 years
working with clients issuing hundreds of debt
issues, I never once did an unrated bond
issue”.
c. Another important fiduciary responsibility that
remains to be disclosed is how many of Olam’s
management’s shares are on margin  (G
Verghese owns > 110 mln Olam shares).
d. The ultimate end game remains uncertain as $125
mln of dividends and continuing negative
cash flow are funded with ever increasing
amounts of debt.
  Mr Dee concluded that “perhaps Temasek’s plan
should be to buy the whole company so Olam can
benefit from Temasek’s deep capital base and AAA
rating.
  We would continue to focus on Noble, Wilmar,
Golden Agri in the commodities-& -related sector.


Lim &  Tan Securities 
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21-Jan-2013 22:16 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
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x 0 		Base formation is strong. Continue cherry picking pick pick..
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21-Jan-2013 22:11 Golden Agri-Res   /   GoldenAgr       Go to Message
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x 0 		Macquarie Research see the upstream crude palm oil (CPO) sector entering a prolonged downgrade cycle
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21-Jan-2013 22:09 Olam Intl   /   OLAM_OLAM       Go to Message
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x 0 		For Olam, Macquarie Research foresee several tough quarters ahead.
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21-Jan-2013 19:39 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
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x 0 		STXOSV $1.555 COME MSmileyNEY COME
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