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Latest Posts By Peter_Pan - Supreme      About Peter_Pan
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28-Jan-2013 07:37 Tiger Airways Rg   /   TigerAir       Go to Message
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x 0 		Tiger Airways – 3Q13 core earnings show a strong turnaround. Maintain BUY, TP S$0.95 by DBS Vickers
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28-Jan-2013 07:36 Tiger Airways Rg   /   TigerAir       Go to Message
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x 0 		Tiger Airways- 3QFY13: Turnaround in a peak quarter but cash burn remains a concern. Maintain SELL - UOBKH
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28-Jan-2013 07:31 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Good week for STI.
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27-Jan-2013 18:27 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
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x 0 		At current level and overhang removed and the no need to fear atmosphere nearly established, it takes just a piece of good news or none at all to appreciate the value.
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27-Jan-2013 18:16 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
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x 0 		Think will continue loading again. More upside gain plus potential dividend. Cool!
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27-Jan-2013 17:07 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Job Market Probably Kept Making Progress: U.S. Economy Preview

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The job market in the U.S. probably kept making headway in January even in the face of Washington’s budget battles, economists said before reports this week.
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27-Jan-2013 12:07 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		China Industrial Companies’ Profits Climb a Fourth Month

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese industrial companies’ profits rose for a fourth month in December, adding to signs the country’s economic rebound is gaining momentum.
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27-Jan-2013 11:22 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		S&P 500 Post Longest Winning Streak Since 2004 on Profits

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its longest winning streak since 2004, as Starbucks Corp. and Procter & Gamble Co. reported increased profit and German business confidence beat forecasts.
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27-Jan-2013 11:18 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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x 0 		Next week will be a good week for this train. Rush Hour!!!

lllusion      ( Date: 24-Jan-2013 10:17) Posted:

Buying to selling ratio is 10:1 now look positive strong accumulating

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 23-Jan-2013 23:34) Posted:

Should be attainable or even breached towards 0.60 within 2-4 weeks
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27-Jan-2013 11:05 Swiber   /   Swiber       Go to Message
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x 0 		Further base formation. Powering up for the next leg.
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27-Jan-2013 10:53 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
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x 0 		May see some weakness for a while but this is definitely a good stock.
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27-Jan-2013 10:49 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
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x 0 		THE Competition Commission of Singapore (CCS) is seeking public feedback on whether Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri's proposed takeover of Singapore-incorporated STX OSV may lead to "a substantial lessening of competition within any market in Singapore". STX is listed on Singapore Exchange.
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26-Jan-2013 18:15 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
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x 0 		STXOSV $1.555 COME MSmileyNEY COME
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26-Jan-2013 18:14 Others   /   STI to cross 4000 boosted by rise of asia       Go to Message
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x 0 		STI 3300 COME MSmileyNEY COME
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26-Jan-2013 18:13 Dyna-Mac   /   Dyna-Mac Holdings       Go to Message
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x 0 		The price is still pretty depressed due to institutional players' accumulation operation. But this is good as it allows late-comers an opportunity to buy-in before the run.
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26-Jan-2013 18:09 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
x 0
x 1 		STI 3300 COME MSmileyNEY COME
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26-Jan-2013 18:04 Dyna-Mac   /   Dyna-Mac Holdings       Go to Message
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x 0 		Dyna-Mac is set to benefit from the rising FPSO demand and potential UAE jobs are in the pipeline.
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26-Jan-2013 17:17 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
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x 0

From: http://www.investinpassiveincome.com/reject-stx-osv-offer-at-1-22/ 

18 Responses to “Reject STX OSV Offer At $1.22”

  1. so1trg  says:
    January 24, 2013 at 4:06 PM

    Remember that Wheelock sold their SC Global shares in their privatization bid at < than their purchase price?
    Shit happens!

    reply
    • Calvin Yeo  says:
      January 24, 2013 at 9:51 PM

      Hi so1trg, unfortunately yes it happens. However, the free float for SC Global is lower than STX OSV. Another key point is that SC Global offer is a significant premium 49% over the last traded price before the announcement and 71% over the 12 months weighted average price. Here STX OSV offer is a significant discount to last traded and weighted average price.

      reply
      • so1trg  says:
        January 25, 2013 at 11:23 AM

        Out of curiousity, in your opinion n experience, do you think STX OSV will ever come down to the offer price of Financanteri in the near term?

        reply
        • Calvin Yeo  says:
          January 26, 2013 at 12:35 AM

          Hi so1trg, it really depends on many factors. Such as if the free float is low, whether the other bigger shareholders are selling the stakes and so on. For companies with low free float less than 20%, the chances are quite high for a forced delisting. For STX OSV, free float is higher at about 30%.

          reply
  2. Diana  says:
    January 25, 2013 at 8:15 AM

    Gd morning Calvin. What does all this mean? Would pple like us who have invested in the stock be at risk now? What potentially will happen and the impact on our investment? Thanks!

    reply
    • Calvin Yeo  says:
      January 25, 2013 at 10:27 AM

      Hi Diana, as of now no. All the analysts have predicted that the general offer will not get sufficient investors to agree to the price. Remember to do your part as well! In the worst case scenario, the free float reduces to less than 10% then they can force remaining minority shareholders to tender their shares at $1.22.

      reply
  3. YKH  says:
    January 25, 2013 at 11:06 AM

    Hi Calvin,

    So is it advisable to buy STX OSV at the currrent price of 1.285?

    reply
    • Calvin Yeo  says:
      January 26, 2013 at 12:32 AM

      Hi YKH, it is really up to you. As I have mentioned the downside is $1.22 if the general offer goes through. However, the valuation for the company is worth much higher than that and all the analysts are of the opinion that the general offer will not be accepted as the price is too low.

      reply
  4. yokoosi  says:
    January 25, 2013 at 1:38 PM

    I will do my part. Period

    reply
  5. jojo  says:
    January 25, 2013 at 8:00 PM

    Hi Calvin,
    Thanks very much for your post. I will surely reject the general offer, as instructed by you. FYI, the last 6-mth average TP is $1.91 from online sources.
    You mentioned “In the worst case scenario, the free float reduces to less than 10%. Then they can force remaining minority shareholders to tender their shares at $1.22.”
    What exactly does this statement mean? What is free float, and the significance of < 10%? Also, what can cause this situation to happen, and will there be a high or low potential of this happening?
    Sorry for asking, but too technical for me to understand. Thanks very much.

    reply
    • Calvin Yeo  says:
      January 26, 2013 at 12:41 AM

      Hi jojo, thanks!

      Based on the listing rules, a listed company cannot stay listed with free float below 10%. Therefore, once free float falls below 10%, the acquirer can force minority shareholders to accept its offer price. Free float is the percentage of shares held by the public investors, excluding the strategic shareholders.

      As of now, the consensus among analysts is that the offer will not go through. That is of course unless the current public investors don’t understand the value and sell because they think the stock price might go lower.

      reply
  6. Samuel  says:
    January 25, 2013 at 8:28 PM

    Hi Calvin, I will reject the offer. Anyway why does the website of STX OSV say that DBS is their largest shareholder?

    1 DBS Nominees Pte Ltd. 861,506,827 73.01

    http://www.stxosv.com/investor/stockinformation/shareholders/Pages/default.aspx

    reply
    • Calvin Yeo  says:
      January 26, 2013 at 1:04 AM

      Hi Samuel, DBS Nominees is a nominee shareholder who is holding the stocks on behalf of the actual owner. This is governed by a custodial agreement, so the actual owner remains unknown to the public.

      reply
  7. Samuel  says:
    January 25, 2013 at 11:02 PM

    Hi Calvin,

    If i use Jaya, ASL Marine and Marco Polo using average 8x PER to compare with STXOSV, i believe share price could be value at min $1.5.

    As for Fincantieri , my guess is i dont think it will go thrgh at 1.22. It just a mandatory procedure to perform as per listing compliance. They do not show intention to acquire up to 100% therefore maintaining their low GO price.

    Well, having say all the positive side i would like to ask your view and reaffirm some negative side in investing in STXOSV

    -Fundamentally, do you think STXOSV is worth investing.

    -Shipping is in a down cycle. Mgmt has in previous report stated that there are not much enquiry as anticipated

    -However given the persistence shipping cycle downturn, im afraid near to mid term prospect is not so bright.

    Vested and would like to ask for your view.

    Thanks
    Sam

    reply
    • Calvin Yeo  says:
      January 26, 2013 at 1:16 AM

      Hi Samuel,

      I am also of the opinion that the GO won’t go through. If they really wanted to take it private, they would need to revise their offer.

      STX OSV is not a standard ship builder. It builds specialized vessels known as OSVs which are used generally in the offshore oil & gas industry. They include AHTS, PSVs, OSCVs etc. So the important factor is oil & gas rather than shipping. Most of the customers are OSV operators such as Farstad and DOF.

      As of now, offshore oil & gas remains strong as seen by the strong book orders of Keppel Corp, Semb Corp for rigs. So naturally OSVs will be required to service the rigs. Additionally, the STX OSVs are highly complex vessels which are not easily replicated by competitor yards, giving them a competitive advantage.

      reply
  8. Anonymous  says:
    January 26, 2013 at 2:27 AM

    Hi Calvin,

    I really would like to thank you for writing this post.

    At this point of time it’s very much needed and it is important that minority shareholders like ourselves can all unanimously agree that the cash offer of $1.22 is ridiculously low (never mind the down-trending offshore segment blah blah those are still not convincing enough reasons to explain the low-ball offer). Sometimes, a little patience goes a long way.

    I am hoping that everyone who is still holding on to the shares of STX OSV will continue to keep their faith in this company just as they have over the past few weeks/months.

    The fact remains that STX OSV is a fundamentally strong high-end OSV player, and that STX corporation desperately needed cash to ease its current financial constraints at the time of the selling of STX OSV at $1.22 to the Italian company who so happily bought it up.

    So I’m hoping that everyone who are vested in this company would spread the word across forums and the net (though I’m not suggesting for anyone who are not vested to buy into the company now- i’m merely appealing to those who have been vested since last year and do not intend to cut losses just yet because of the potential that they see in STX OSV).

    Point is, don’t go into panic selling mode now. Remember, those who look at the fundamentals of the company and are patient with the game will, more often than not, triumph.

    reply
    • Calvin Yeo  says:
      January 26, 2013 at 9:55 AM

      Hi Anonymous, no problem!

      Yes, the low ball offer came from the fact that STX needed cash, but fundamentally STX OSV by itself is very strong. In fact, under a different parent, SOH may even do better as the parent does not need to keep drawing cash from it.

      I am seeing some forums with similar message, so yes do spread the word for current owners to stick to their guns.

      reply
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26-Jan-2013 13:01 Vard   /   STXOSV       Go to Message
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x 0 		Reject STX OSV Offer At $1.22
January 24th, 2013 by Calvin Yeo
As you all know, yesterday STX OSV requested for a trading halt after which they announced that the Fincantieri has completed the acquisition of 50.75% stake of STX OSV. As part of the takeover rules, it is required to extend its offer of $1.22 to exisiting shareholders as well.
I encourage all of you to reject the offer as it is simply to low in my opinion. All the research reports have predicted the offer will be rejected, so do remember to do your part as well. The price according to the announcement is
(i) a discount of approximately 12.9 per cent. to the last traded price of S$1.400 per Share as quoted on the SGX-ST on 20 December 2012, being the last trading day of the Shares on the SGX-ST preceding the Pre-Conditional Announcement Date  and
(ii) a  discount  of  approximately 17.5 per  cent.  to  the  three-month  volume-weighted average  price  (“VWAP”)  of  S$1.478 per  Share,  being  the  VWAP  for  the  threemonth period prior to, and inclusive of the last trading day of the Shares on the SGX-ST preceding the Pre-Conditional Announcement Date.
I seldom see general offers where the price is at a discount to last traded price and weighted average price.
At $1.22, STX OSV is only valued at 4.1x 2011 Earnings and 6.5x 2012 Estimated Earnings which is way too low.
Also, my valuation of STX OSV stand at about $1.75 while most research reports have it much higher than the offer price as well.
Macquarie Research – $1.82
Citi  – $1.70
CIMB – $1.47
I have entered additional lots as well as the maximum downside is $1.22 or about 3.9% from current price.

http://www.investinpassiveincome.com/reject-stx-osv-offer-at-1-22/
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26-Jan-2013 01:29 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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Investors confident because of what didn't happen



Money that had been pulled out of stocks is now pouring back in, says Banyan Partners' Robert Pavlik, because the worst fears about the fiscal cliff, debt ceiling and corporate earnings have not come to pass.
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