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Read this article extracted from:
http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/red-hot-energy-and-gold/gold-g-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-old/
Scott Baker 02.11.09 at 10:09 am
Before we get too excited about gold (though 10% of my portfolio is in GLD or related instruments), let’s remember what FDR did in 1933:
“On March 9, the Senate passed the Emergency Banking Act after very little debate. This gave the Secretary of the Treasury the power to compel every person and business in the country to relinquish their gold and accept paper currency in exchange.
The next day, Friday March 10, Roosevelt issued Executive Order No. 6073, forbidding people from sending gold overseas and forbidding banks from paying out gold.
On April 5, Roosevelt issued Executive Order No. 6102. This was the order to confiscate everybody’s gold. It commanded everybody to deliver their gold and gold certificates to the Federal Reserve bank, where they would be paid in paper money. You could keep up to $100.00 in gold, but anything above that was illegal. Gold had become a controlled substance. Possession was punishable by a fine of up to $10,000 and imprisonment for up to 10 years.
Now the only people with a claim to gold in the Treasury were foreigners holding dollars. Since he was on such a roll, Roosevelt decided to rip them off too. On January 31, 1934, Roosevelt issued another Executive Order. Here he declared that the dollar was now only 59.06% of its former gold quantum of 23.22 grains. Now the dollar was only worth 13.71 grains of gold.
Look at it from the point of view of one of these hapless foreigners. It used to cost you only $20.67 to get a troy ounce of gold. Now it cost you $35.00. The U.S. government, under the dictatorship of Roosevelt, had just stolen 40% of your money.”
This is from http://www.strike-the-root.com/columns/Chkoreff/chkoreff1.html - an admittedly anti-FDR site. But, regardless of whether you think FDR was justified in essentially outlawing the holding of gold, you have to consider the possibility it might happen again. Just a hint of such a thing would be enough to crater the gold market, of course. What are your thoughts?
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Gold may not necessarily always moved in the opposite direction to USD as lately it is instead moving in the same direction as USD. There are just too many other factors that also can influence the direction of gold, eg supply/demand, overbought/oversold, etc, etc, etc
cheongwee ( Date: 07-Feb-2009 02:11) Posted:
US$ forming double top...read
 Print This Post | Topic: Other, Gold — February 5th, 2009
From the above chart we can see that the US dollar has rallied to challenge its previous high, but is now being held up around 86. Here the USD appears to have formed a double top and now looks to break down through the support line that this two month rally was built on.
Watch closely for confirmation of this bearish double top formation, as a break down through 84 at the greenback’s short term support line would suggest a spike up in gold prices. As noted in an article earlier this week, gold is very close to making a new high and breaking through some more technical barriers, and so a dip in the USD could just push gold up enough to break these barriers, clearing the path for a challenge of $1000/ounce.....from Gold Price Newsletter.
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DBS Group Research . Equity
Attractive valuations versus growth
We believe CHHS’ earnings should grow at a CAGR of almost 20%
between FY08 and FY10, driven by the Group’s plans to continue
expanding its number of points-of-sales by 600 per annum over the next
2 years. Backed by net cash/share of S$0.17, we believe CHHS is
significantly undervalued and reiterate our Buy call with TP at S$0.32,
pegged to 7.0x PER09.
Investor interest remained keen at our ‘Pulse of Asia’ Conference.
China Hongxing had the opportunity to meet up with over 30 fund
managers and buy-side analysts, with a packed group presentation
meeting, to provide an update on their business.
Earnings growth intact
it should continue to see firm top line growth, driven by its aggressive
store expansion plan to open 600 POS per year in FY09 and FY10, which
will bring the number of stores from c. 3,850 by end FY08 to 5,050 by
end FY10. At the same time, the Group believes that with a fast-growing
segment of middle class consumers and affordability of its products
versus international brand names, that it can continue to capture more
market share. Hence, we maintain our projections that earnings of CHHS
can grow at a CAGR of almost 20% between FY08 and FY10, from 3.8
Scts to 5.4 Scts, driven mainly by its expanding store network. . China Hongxing maintained its optimism that
RMB1.0b+ prepayment expected to be duly collected.
prepayment paid by CHHS on behalf of distributors to secure prime
locations for new stores would be completely collected by early 2010. So
far, there has been no delay or default of distributors’ repayment. The
management has no plan to carry out such scheme again in future. The
Margins sustainable.
improve in the long term, driven by a better sales mix from the highermargin
apparel and accessories segments. Since A&P budget is pegged
to revenue and there’s not much debt, the operating margin and net
margins are also expected to improve over time. The company’s overall gross margin should also
Attractive Valuation.
only 4.0x FY10 earnings, which is significantly under the peers’ average
about 7.3x FY09. Maintain Buy, with our target price at S$.032, pegged
at 7.0x PER09, backed by S$0.17 of net cash/share. Valuations are undemanding at 4.7x FY09 and
richtan ( Date: 09-Jan-2009 12:10) Posted:
(XFN-ASIA) - DBS said it kept its "buy" rating on Singapore-listed sportswear maker China Hongxing Sports as the company's earnings should grow on expansion plans.
However, the brokerage slightly lowered its price target to 0.32 sgd from 0.33 sgd.
"We believe China Hongxing's earnings should grow at a CAGR of almost 20 pct between fiscal year 2008 and fiscal year 2010, driven by the group's plans to continue expanding its points of sales by 600 per annum over the next two years," DBS said in a note to clients.
DBS said the company, which is backed by net cash per share of 0.17 sgd, is significantly undervalued.
China Hongxing's overall gross margins should also improve, driven by better sales mix from the higher-margin apparel and accessories segments, DBS said |
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(XFN-ASIA) - DBS said it kept its "buy" rating on Singapore-listed sportswear maker China Hongxing Sports as the company's earnings should grow on expansion plans.
However, the brokerage slightly lowered its price target to 0.32 sgd from 0.33 sgd.
"We believe China Hongxing's earnings should grow at a CAGR of almost 20 pct between fiscal year 2008 and fiscal year 2010, driven by the group's plans to continue expanding its points of sales by 600 per annum over the next two years," DBS said in a note to clients.
DBS said the company, which is backed by net cash per share of 0.17 sgd, is significantly undervalued.
China Hongxing's overall gross margins should also improve, driven by better sales mix from the higher-margin apparel and accessories segments, DBS said
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Hopefully, it is not a lame bull (or should be Bush) or limping paper bull but a Obama raging bull 
Laulan ( Date: 18-Dec-2008 11:40) Posted:
| Ponzi scandal hits GE owned by OCBC., but this bank still showing green. I think the ponzi thing is not a big matter. The market is just experiencing profit taking from the last weeks rise. Should be rallying as the year draws to a close. Chinese New Year hot on the heels of Christmas. This Lunar New Year 2009 happens to be the year of the BULL. |
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Sportswear Sector Update from KIn Eng
Last price: China Hongxing ($0.205)
Recommendation: Buy (Maintained)
Target price: China Hongxing ($0.42)
Stimulus package aims to boost domestic consumption
Against the backdrop of a worsen economic outlook in 2009, China’s government seeks to maintain a stable and relatively fast growth, targeting a minimum 8% GDP growth and the creation of 10m jobs. China’s recent RMB 4 trillion stimulus package stressed on the importance of boosting domestic consumption. With a strong fiscal surplus of close to RMB 1 trillion, the Chinese government has capacity to cushion the impact of a sharp economic slow down.
We favour market leaders with mass market appeal
We believe market leaders with sizable domestic distribution network and mass market appeal will benefit from China’s initiatives to boost its domestic consumption. In the consumer space, we like China Hongxing and China Zaino. Both are amongst the top 20 S-chips by market capitalisation, below book values and bag strong net cash position.
China Hongxing has the stamina
CHHS established market positioning in the middle-tier markets in PRC (market share of about 7-8%) is likely to benefit from rising urbanisation which the Chinese government seeks to promote. Its hinges on mass-market appeal with product pricing that are approximately 50% lower than close competitors such as Li Ning, and 60% cheaper than international sports brand players. Demand visibility is strong at least until 1H09 underpinned by its robust order book (~38% higher than year ago) that is non-refundable and to be delivered by May 09. Its huge net cash of RMB 1.98bn will facilitate its aggressive expansions to secure prime locations in second-tier cities that are crucial for sustainable growth.
Market leaders at bombed out valuations
Both CHHS and CZAI have seen their share prices plunged 61-78% YTD, and are trading at > 50% discount to their Hong Kong peers. Current low valuations (2-5x PER) look oversold considering their sizable market dominance in the PRC and strong cash outlay. Risk-reward tradeoffs are turning attractive as we see limited price downside to distress levels and milder earnings expectations. Key risks to our calls are crash- landing of the PRC economy and ineffective implementation of the economic stimulus.
richtan ( Date: 17-Dec-2008 09:50) Posted:
| (XFN-ASIA) - Kim Eng said it is reaffirming "buy" recommendations on China Hongxing Sports and China Zaino on expected benefits from China's efforts to boost domestic consumption. In a note to investors, Kim Eng said it favored "market leaders with mass market appeal." "These will benefit from China's initiatives to boost its domestic consumption. In the consumer space, we like China Hongxing and China Zaino," Kim Eng said. The target price on China Hongxing is 0.42 sgd, and on China Zaino 0.50. China Hongxing last traded at 0.21 sgd and China Zaino 0.23 |
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(XFN-ASIA) - Kim Eng said it is reaffirming "buy" recommendations on China Hongxing Sports and China Zaino on expected benefits from China's efforts to boost domestic consumption. In a note to investors, Kim Eng said it favored "market leaders with mass market appeal." "These will benefit from China's initiatives to boost its domestic consumption. In the consumer space, we like China Hongxing and China Zaino," Kim Eng said. The target price on China Hongxing is 0.42 sgd, and on China Zaino 0.50. China Hongxing last traded at 0.21 sgd and China Zaino 0.23
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Oh yeh!1 Hold tight on to her curvaceous... erh..... double bottom.. dun let go!!!
louis_leecs ( Date: 10-Dec-2008 21:55) Posted:
| someone accumlate 205cts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,tis baby jus start the gear one,,,,,,,,,, dont forget tis one always the formular one racer ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,must mornital and hold tight,,,,,,,,,,,cheers
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Wow, Ms Hong Xin looks very sexy on her candlestick potrait, one big & the other small, one nib protruding & the other intruding, hahaha...
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Hi,
Thanks for the info.
Too complicated for those without knowledge on how to determined whether wat should be the right premium to buy & sell.
CWQuah ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 18:39) Posted:
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e = European type of warrants (exercisable only upon expiry. American warrants can be exercised b4 expiry. But haven't seen any being sold locally).
15000 refers to the strike price level. In this case, as long as the HSI FUTURES is below 15000, the puts are in-the-money (effect - tendency for the warrants to move in a more volatile manner and command a premium).
Yep, DB is Deutschebank.
Pls read up more on warrants pricing on Societe Generale's website. Warrant pricing is more complicated than most expect.
richtan ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 18:16) Posted:
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Also wat does the "e" in " DB e" stands for.
If I'm not wrong "DB" stands for Deutch Bank.
Thanks |
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Also wat does the "e" in " DB e" stands for.
If I'm not wrong "DB" stands for Deutch Bank.
Thanks
richtan ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 18:10) Posted:
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Can kindly explain to me how to interpret the put warrants symbol, eg: HSI15000DBePW081231, I know it is a put warrant on HSI & expire 31st Dec 2008 but wat does the figure 15000 stands for & can we buy & sell just like buying & selling normal stock trade.
Thanks a lot
ozone2002 ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 17:06) Posted:
| yeah PUT warrants will be in play again.. |
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Can kindly explain to me how to interpret the put warrants symbol, eg: HSI15000DBePW081231, I know it is a put warrant on HSI & expire 31st Dec 2008 but wat does the figure 15000 stands for & can we buy & sell just like buying & selling normal stock trade.
Thanks a lot
ozone2002 ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 17:06) Posted:
| yeah PUT warrants will be in play again.. |
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Hi Tinpeng,
Any idea why they are up. Any good news moving it.
Thks a lot
tinpeng ( Date: 19-Nov-2008 14:41) Posted:
| nikkei recover...shanghai up |
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Can someone tell me why STI sudden pickup.
Thks
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Subject: China Hongxing coverage reinitiated with 'buy' - Merrill
18 Nov 08, 1733 BROKER CALL China Hongxing coverage reinitiated with 'buy' - Merrill
XFN-ASIA - Merrill Lynch has reinstated coverage on China Hongxing with a "buy" rating and target price of 0.40 sgd, citing the Singapore-listed sportswear maker's low valuation.
Merrill noted that the stock has fallen 76 pct in year-to-date as investors fled from S-chips due to "perceptions" of below par corporate governance. The stock is now trading at a 35 pct discount to its Hong Kong-listed peers' average, it pointed out.
The broker said that despite China's slowing economic growth, it remains positive on the outlook for sportswear demand and sees ample room for industry consolidation in the mass market as weaker brands die out.
It said its 2009-10 revenue growth forecasts of 12-16 pct and profit growth forecasts of 10-16 pct are driven by the company's sales network.
The company's market share gains via its strategy to focus on sales in second- and third-tier cities where competition is mild would also boost earnings growth, Merrill added.
China Hongxing shares today closed down 0.01 sgd or 4.8 pct at 0.20 in Singapore.
(1 usd = 1.52 sgd, 6.8 yuan)
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Can someone kindly explain to me why in Bloomberg, the US DOW Futures is now -136 but Europe DOW Futures is +77, such extreme, one so -ve & the other in the opposite direction.
Thks
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STI should in fact track SSE as China now is the world's richest country instead of tracking DOW (now world's poorest, debtor country, lost its once mighty power) and Hang Seng.
China now call the shots, saw the TV ad, all other credit card not accepted except "China "Great Wall" card, the implications is already written on the wall.
Dun b surprise, the redheads in future have to work in China as maid, the wind direction has changed.
uming16 ( Date: 13-Nov-2008 11:25) Posted:
| SSE in the green. I hope SSE can pull up global markets!!! |
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Just click "Bad post" to rate his/her post for such no value-added posting
Hulumas ( Date: 13-Nov-2008 10:50) Posted:
Mind your posting, it is not ethical, that is all I can say.
tchoonw ( Date: 13-Nov-2008 08:23) Posted:
sti will test 800 again for last low acheive during the asian financial crisis.
when this time come, i will buy uob at $3.5, dbs at $3 and kepcorp at $1.5! |
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Another Mr Doomsday, Marc Faber who insanely seems not to know or in hibernation, not knowing tat the world has survive many crisis to grow even stronger after tat
Hulumas ( Date: 13-Nov-2008 10:43) Posted:
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If you think so, by all means, go ahead, you yourself can keep on selling your holding or short selling throughout 2009 then. I am sure no one stops you doing that!
ten4one ( Date: 13-Nov-2008 10:18) Posted:
Profits down, Losses, Jobs Cut, Pays & Bonuses Cut, More Credit Cards Default, More Housing & Veh Loans Default, Negative cashflows that will eventually force Companies to call it a day...etc..etc...and worst of all no one knows how BIG is the Black Hole!!!!!!!
If all the above are not solved, the Stock Market will continue to head south. Simple as that!!!! Cheers! |
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Btw, it is now recovering, could it be any force-selling?
AK_Francis ( Date: 12-Nov-2008 14:41) Posted:
Could be due to IEA, going to announce the ajusted forecast on CO consumption for yr 2009, coming Thu.
If not AK dun see other reason that SPC drops drastically,
except CO Dec future dropped 3 USD last nite.
richtan ( Date: 12-Nov-2008 14:30) Posted:
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Kindly explain how does this cause SPC to sudden drop 15 cts.
Thks |
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