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George Soros, Pimco Turned Bearish on Gold

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Published: Friday, 15 Feb 2013 | 2:15 AM ET

Anthony Bradshaw | Getty Images

Prominent hedge fund manager John Paulson continued to hold significant gold investments in the fourth quarter of 2012, even as other investors pulled out.

Notable institutional investors, including George Soros, Julian Robertson andAllianz's PIMCO reduced their bets on gold during the quarter, when bullion posted its biggest quarterly loss in more than four years.

Paulson & Co owned 21.8 million shares in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, at the end of December, unchanged from Sept. 30, a filing with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission showed on Thursday.

" That's a good sign as he's a big player. It shows that he still has long-term faith in the market," said Bill O'Neill, a partner in commodities investment firm LOGIC Advisors.

Paulson is by far the biggest shareholder of the SPDR gold ETF. He has often advocated gold to offset risks related to currency exposure and U.S. dollar depreciation.

The value of Paulson's SPDR ETF holdings, however, dropped to $3.54 billion in the fourth quarter from $3.75 billion in the third, resulting in a paper loss of $215.5 million for his fund.

The decline was because of a 5 percent, or $100, drop in the price of spot goldduring the fourth quarter.

Some analysts cited year-end hedge fund redemption for gold's pullback in the quarter.

In December, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney recommended that its financial advisers pull client money out of a Paulson fund. Earlier in the year, Citigroup's private bank decided to withdraw $410 million from Paulson & Co.

Besides the gold ETF, Paulson's firm also held onto significant stakes in the shares of major gold mining companies, including Barrick Gold Corp, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd and about half a dozen others. He also had a stake in Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc.

Soros, Robertson Lessen Gold Bets

Some other well-known managers were more bearish.

George Soros, who called gold " the ultimate bubble" in 2011, reduced his position in SPDR Gold by more than a half to 600,000 shares in the fourth from 1.32 million in the third quarter.

Tiger Management's Julian Robertson dissolved his entire stake in Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, while he held onto the Junior Gold Miners ETF.

Recent signs of recovery in the U.S. housing and jobs markets also diminished gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty, analysts said.

" If the equities market continue to roll higher here, investors could divert more money away from gold in the near term," O'Neill said.

Year to date, gold is down around 2.5 percent. It traded at $1,635 an ounce on Thursday, just $10 above a six-month low.

SPDR Gold Trust is the world's largest gold-backed, exchange-traded fund, holding around 1,323 tonnes of gold bullion. It is also among the world's top ETFs in terms of market capitalization.

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15-Feb-2013 19:03

Vard / STXOSV

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STX OSV
Three New Orders Cut EPS, TP on Low 2012 Wins

STX OSV secured three new orders for offshore subsea construction vessels with
an estimated value of NOK2.4bn (USD433m). We view the new orders positively as
the vessels are based on STX OSV’s designs and margins on these orders could
surprise on the upside. However, we lower FY13-14F EPS by 4.5% and 8.7%
respectively as 2012 new order win of NOK9.5bn was lower than our estimate of
NOK12bn. Consequently, we lower our TP from SGD2.05 to SGD1.96. Our TP is
based on 12x FY13F P/E. We believe minority shareholders should not accept the
cash General Offer from Fincantieri at SGD1.22/share as we think the offer
undervalues the stock.

Secured three OSCV orders valued at around NOK2.4bn. STX OSV secured three new
orders: i) one offshore subsea construction vessel (OSCV) (overall length of 121m and
beam of 23m) for Solstad Offshore for NOK600m (USD108m) to be delivered in 2Q2014.
The vessel will be based on STX OSV’s OSCV 03 design ii) one OSCV (overall length of
143m and beam of 25m) for Farstad Shipping for NOK800m (USD144m) to be delivered in
1Q2015. The vessel will be of STX OSV’s OSCV 07 design iii) one OSCV (overall length
of 161m and beam of 32m) for DOF Subsea to be delivered in 1Q2015. Value of this
contract was not disclosed. The vessel will be based on STX OSV’s OSCV 12 design. We
estimate the DOF order to be worth NOK1bn (USD180m).

New orders lifted unbilled order book to NOK20.1bn. As of end 3Q12, STX OSV has
an order book of NOK16.4bn. Since then, the company has secured NOK3.7bn new orders
for five offshore subsea construction vessels, lifting its unbilled order book to NOK20.1bn.

Earnings: Cut FY13-14 EPS by 4.5-8.7% on lower FY12 order win. We lower FY12 EPS
by 4.5% and FY14 EPS by 8.7% as 2012 new order win of NOK9.5bn was below our
estimate of NOK12bn. We also lower FY13 new order win from NOK15bn to NOK12bn.
We are expecting blended EBITDA margin of 12.7% in FY13.

Valuation: We cut our TP from SGD2.05 to SGD1.96 after we revised down our FY13F
EPS. Our TP is based on 12x FY13F P/E, 25% discount to our target P/E for rig builders,
and implies 58% upside from its last closing price. Key risks to our view are: i) successful
privatization by Fincantieri ii) slowdown in new orders and iii) project execution risk.

Maintain Buy: Target SGD1.96

OSK-DMG

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15-Feb-2013 18:55

Vard / STXOSV

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STX OSV: Three new OSCV contracts 
worth US$350-500m 



STX OSV announced that it has secured 
contracts for three Offshore Subsea 
Construction Vessels (OSCVs). We estimate 
the total value to be around NOK 2b to 2.8b 
(or USD 350-500m). The three vessels are 
for Solstad Offshore, Farstad Shipping and 
DOF Subsea Group. They will be built in 
Norway and scheduled for deliveries in 2014 
and 2015. As the group is expected to report 
its 4Q12 results soon, we put off adjusting 
our estimates and maintain our BUY rating 
with S$1.52 fair value estimate. 


OCBC Investment Research

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15-Feb-2013 16:18

Golden Agri-Res / GoldenAgr

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Crude Palm Oil Price

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15-Feb-2013 15:57

Midas / Midas

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I have a mid-term target of 0.85

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15-Feb-2013 15:19

Vard / STXOSV

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Now most of the overhangs are cleared, plus got valentine's day gifts. You can expect more upsides hereon.

james87 ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 15:16) Posted:

I really hope the uptrend is sustainable. Always after the rise the price slowly erode away...

Peter_Pan ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 15:09) Posted:

Waiting for more contracts awards.soon.

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15-Feb-2013 15:14

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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Next week onwards, markets even better with China coming back online and fund managers coming back from CNY holiday.

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15-Feb-2013 15:09

Vard / STXOSV

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Waiting for more contracts awards.soon.

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15-Feb-2013 15:06

Midas / Midas

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Waiting patiently for more contracts awards these two weeks. Den den den den....

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15-Feb-2013 15:00

Golden Agri-Res / GoldenAgr

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Crude Palm Oil Price

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15-Feb-2013 15:00

Golden Agri-Res / GoldenAgr

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VEGOILS-Palm up on export data investors wait for tax decision

* Malaysia's Feb 1-15 palm oil exports up 18.1 pct -ITS
* Small rise expected in March's crude palm oil export tax
-trader
* Palm oil to hover above 2,493 ringgit -technicals

(Updates prices, adds detail)
By Anuradha Raghu
KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
climbed on Friday on positive export data, with investors
cautious ahead of the weekend and a lack of cues from overseas
markets capping gains.
Prices were still headed for their first weekly loss in five
weeks as investors waited for a government decision to determine
the crude palm oil export tax in March, due later in the day.
The current zero-percent duty has made Malaysia's products
cheaper than top producer and biggest rival Indonesia.
Exports of palm oil products in the first half of February
grew 18 percent from the first half of January to 673,555
tonnes, cargo surveyor data showed, boosted by strong demand
from major edible oil buyers Europe, China and India.
Shipments of the crude grade doubled during the period
compared to the previous month's first two weeks. [PALM/ITS]
By the midday break, the benchmark April contract
on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 1.0 percent to
2,521 ringgit ($815) per tonne. Prices were rangebound between
2,503 and 2,521 ringgit.
Total traded volumes stood at 12,050 lots of 25 tonnes each,
slightly lower than the average of 12,500 tonnes.
The export data should hold the market above 2,500 ringgit,
said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia,
adding that there was a possibility of a small rise in the March
export tax.
" The important thing is whether the tax can create demand,"
he said. " There could be a prompt demand from India and China --
especially from India who buys a lot of crude palm oil."
Technical analysis showed palm oil is expected to hover
above a support at 2,493 ringgit per tonne for one trading
session before breaking this level and falling more.
[ID:nL4N0BF1JH]
Tepid global economic conditions have slowed edible oil
demand and kept stockpiles stubbornly high in Malaysia, the
world's No.2 palm oil producer, with prices tumbling 23.2
percent last year.
A zero-percent duty tax structure introduced by Malaysia in
January provided positive sentiment for investors, but forecasts
of bumper soy crops in Latin America, palm's vegetable oil
competitor, has weighed on the market and kept prices
rangebound.
" For the past few months, high stockpiles and improving
weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina have continued to
weigh on prices," said Phillip Futures analyst Ker Chung Yang in
Singapore. " But on the flip side Malaysia and Indonesia have
aggressively engaged in activities to support exports."
Crude palm oil prices will continue to be rangebound between
2,200 and 2,600 ringgit as investors await further cues, he
said.
Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance,
was to release its exports data for Feb. 1-15 later in the day.
Brent crude steadied around $118 per barrel, still heading
for its first weekly loss in five after disappointing euro zone
data revived concerns about the troubled region. [O/R]
In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for March
delivery inched down 0.1 percent in early Asian trade.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange is closed for the Lunar New Year
holidays and will resume trading on Monday.

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15-Feb-2013 14:47

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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Wah! Personal attacks getting from bad to worst...

Isolator ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 14:43) Posted:

Are you one of the fools?? Lol

Peter_Pan ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 14:29) Posted:

Wah! Personal attacks now..

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15-Feb-2013 14:29

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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Wah! Personal attacks now...

Isolator ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 14:10) Posted:

Bunch of fools... So easily con... 6.9mil is the confirmation for the doomsday.... My advice think out of the box... Or else you will be always follow behind someone ass... most so called educated one usually the most stupid... They read books but not knowing a book is written by someone.... If you think within the book u are always a follower of someone thoughts.... Lololol

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15-Feb-2013 13:48

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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STI down 0.2% to 3,295.11 3,280 support tipped

Singapore's STI remains mired in negative territory, down 0.2% at 3,295.11, despite gains in most regional markets.

Ng Kian Teck, an analyst at SIAS Research, notes Genting Singapore (G13.SG) andSingTel (Z74.SG) are leading declines “they are moving the market if you exclude these two, generally the other counters are performing quite okay.”

Volume remains heavily skewed toward penny plays, suggesting tepid interest in the blue chips, with a whopping 5.21 billion shares valued at only $866.2 million changing hands. The index has hovered in a less than 10-point range OCBC tips 3,280 support.

In the broader market, gainers and losers are nearly evenly matched. SingTel is down 1.7% at $3.54 after reporting 3Q13 net profit fell 8.3% on-year to $827.1 million. GENS is off 1.2% at $1.605, retracing some of its pre-Lunar New Year holiday rally.

On the upside, CapitaLand (C31.SG) tacks on 1.5% to $3.95 Citigroup upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, citing it as the best proxy to China among Singapore developers.

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15-Feb-2013 13:31

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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All newbies, oldbies, somewhere-in-between-bies should get advise from their respective financial advisers. Cannot rely on the calls here for long/short positions. Markets are dynamic, those so-called sifus here are also at the mercy of the markets.

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15-Feb-2013 13:13

Midas / Midas

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I believe more contracts awards are in the pipeline. On the right track to higher ground.

stockmarketmind ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 09:16) Posted:

no catalyst to drive this counter now.

tonylim ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 09:02) Posted:

Now it needs impetus of winning contracts in order to soar above 6

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15-Feb-2013 12:42

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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GLOBAL MARKETS-Weak Europe weighs on markets, yen jittery before G20

* MSCI Asia ex-Japan pauses, but set for biggest weekly gain
since Jan. 6
* Yen jittery before G20, drags on Nikkei
* Gold hits 6-week low, copper seen at largest weekly loss
this year

By Chikako Mogi
TOKYO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Weak euro zone growth data
dampened sentiment in markets from Asian shares to copper to
gold, while the yen was jittery as investors awaited news from
the G20's Moscow meeting.
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside
Japan < .MIAPJ0000PUS> was trading in a wafer-thin range, rising
0.1 percent after falling 0.1 percent earlier in the session.
The index was set for a weekly gain of 1.3 percent, however,
for its best such performance since the week to Jan. 6, when it
was underpinned by an improving global growth outlook for this
year and receding risks from the euro zone debt crisis.
Stocks in the Philippines < .PSI> and Indonesia < .JKSE>
hovered near records hit the day before.
Australian and South Korea shares consolidated from recent
strong rise. Australian shares steadied after touching a
4-1/2 year high on Thursday, compounded by the weak euro zone
data and a $3 billion annual loss from global miner Rio Tinto
Ltd . South Korean shares < .KS11> steadied after closing
on Thursday at a fresh three-week high as the yen firmed.
The Nikkei stock average < .N225> fell 0.9 percent.
Markets in China and Taiwan remained shut for the Lunar New
Year holiday. [.T]
Investors kept an eye out for potential fallout from the
sliding yen at the G20 meeting on Friday and Saturday in Moscow.
The yen traded in narrow ranges against other major
currencies as investors cut back yen short positions as
speculation grew that Japan might be singled out because of the
yen's steady drop over the past three months.
" Investors are sitting on the fence after KOSPI's recent
rebound and ahead of the G20 meeting. The meeting would pave the
way to put a brake on the sharp fall of the yen for the past two
months," said Cho Young-hyun, an analyst at Hana Daetoo
Securities.
The yen steadied after gaining on Thursday for the third
straight day, adding 1.5 percent for its best three-day advance
in three weeks.
Many traders and analysts say currencies will be discussed,
but yen weakness is unlikely to top the agenda so long as Japan
convinces delegates it is pursuing strong monetary easing to
reflate the economy, and yen devaluation is a side-effect.
" The prevailing sense from all of the official commentary on
currencies this week is that the international community is
willing to tolerate a weaker yen so long as Japan continues to
focus on domestic policies and probably moderates its rhetoric
on the currency," JPMorgan said in a note.
The dollar was nearly flat at 92.82 yen . It marked
its highest since May 2010 of 94.465 on Monday. The euro
was also steady around 124.00 yen, after scaling its
peak since April 2010 of 127.71 yen last week.

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15-Feb-2013 10:33

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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Check out the chart.....eerily similar price movement as Sept/Oct 2012.......

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15-Feb-2013 10:28

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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Ample liquidity, attractive valuation, the US, European debt issues are the " new normal" . Money coming out of expensive bonds into equities.

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15-Feb-2013 10:24

Vard / STXOSV

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STX OSV : Cut EPS, TP on Low 2012 Wins. Maintain BUY, TP: S$1.96

OSK-DMG

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