ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Obama's Jobs Plan a Tough Sell

Obama's US$447bn " American Jobs Act" failed to impress the markets last Friday, with the U.S. major indices falling more than 2%. Macquarie Economics Research (MER) expects the plan to be a tough-sell in Congress, so will likely ultimately be reduced in size and become tax-focused.

However, the introduction of an employer payroll tax cut, extensions to the employee payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits would be incrementally positive for MER's 2012 growth forecast. MER expects the boost to come largely through increased confidence, rather than a direct stimulus effect. (MER report dated 9 Sep)

Impact of European sovereign debt woes
Sovereign debt concerns in Europe remain a major source of uncertainty for financial markets. For the United States, MER thinks that the key channel of impact will likely be through generalised financial uncertainty and contagion.

US banks‘ exposure to sovereign debt of European peripherals is reportedly low, and the outright impact on real US output also looks contained. However, heightened uncertainty would be negative for asset prices, could also crimp credit growth and generate US$ funding strains. (MER report dated 8 Sep)

Macro announcements this week
This week, two key US cyclical indicators for August will be released: retail sales and industrial production. According to MER, the pace of growth in both is expected to moderate from the July bounce, but should remain consistent with MER outlook for annualised 3Q GDP growth of at least 2.5%.

Tue 13 Sep: US Import/Export Prices (Aug)
Wed 14 Sep: US PPI (Aug), US Retail Sales (Aug)
Thu 15 Sep: SG Retail Sales (July), US CPI (Aug), US Industrial Production (Aug), US Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 16 Sep: SG Non-oil Domestic Exports (Aug), US U. of Michigan Confidence (Sep)

The following October expiry HSI warrants have exercise prices close to HSI Friday levels:

Code	Name	Type	Expiry	Exercise Price
O1YW	HSI19600MBeCW111028@	Call	28-Oct-11	19600
O2NW	HSI20200MBeCW111028@	Call	28-Oct-11	20200
O2CW	HSI19400MBePW111028@	Put	28-Oct-11	19400
O2PW	HSI20000MBePW111028@	Put	28-Oct-11	20000

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STI's 120-point swing

With global markets characteristically volatile of late, it was no surprise that the STI underwent yet another wild week - swinging 126 points between its high-low of the week. The benchmark index eventually finished down 0.6% week-on-week (wow) at 2,825.1.

Genting Singapore headed back toward optimistic levels
Capitalising on positive days to make strong moves was casino operator Genting Singapore. Battered to a low of $1.49 just two weeks ago, Genting Singapore used last week to claw its way back up. The stock finished up 5.3% wow to $1.70 on Friday.

Call GentingSMBeCW120403@ (OZ8W) exercise price $1.60.*
Put GentingSMBePW120301@ (OT4W) exercise price $1.85.*

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thIs Is PROPERTY BUY SIGNAL CONFIRMATION for INVESTOR from AUTHORITY ? ? ? ?


	The inexplicable rise in development charges Won’t this run counter to efforts to curb soaring property prices? The Government is supposed to Conrad Raj conrad@mediacorp.com.sg So if you do not intend to enhance the value of the property further by changing the land use or raising the plot ratio to increase the density of the site, you do not have to pay the DC. But is that the right attitude to take? Are we not supposed to maximise land usage? Government should SUBSIDISE RE-DEVELOPMENT INSTEAD ? ? ? ? There have been plenty of guesses, with most attributing the higher charges to the authorities playing catch-up on the hot property market. If this is so, it appears to be another case of closing the stable doors after the horses have bolted. 亡羊捕牢马后炮 be abating property prices to make residential property more affordable to the buying public. So I fail to understand why the Ministry of National Development (MND) recently decided to revise development charges (DC) upwards as part of its half-yearly review. To be fair, the DC is a “levy” that is imposed when planning permission is granted for a development on a site for a more valuable zoning use or in excess of the existing plot ratio.

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“The fish always stinks from the head” is a favourite.

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thIs Is

PROPERTY BUY SIGNAL

CONFIRMATION

for

INVESTOR

from

AUTHORITY ? ? ? ?

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The inexplicable rise in development charges

Won’t this run counter to efforts to curb soaring property prices?

The Government is supposed to

Conrad Raj

conrad@mediacorp.com.sg

So if you do not intend to enhance the value of the property further by changing the land use or raising the plot ratio to increase the density of the site, you do not have to pay the DC.

But is that the right attitude to take?

Are we not supposed to maximise land usage?

Government should SUBSIDISE RE-DEVELOPMENT INSTEAD ? ? ? ?

There have been plenty of guesses, with most attributing the higher charges to the authorities playing catch-up on the hot property market.
If this is so, it appears to be another case of closing the stable doors after the horses have bolted.
亡羊捕牢
马后炮
be abating property prices to
make residential property more
affordable to the buying public.
So I fail to understand why the
Ministry of National Development
(MND) recently decided to revise
development charges (DC) upwards
as part of its half-yearly review.
To be fair, the DC is a “levy” that
is imposed when planning permission
is granted for a development on
a site for a more valuable zoning use

or in excess of the existing plot ratio.

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China’s banks: ‘The fish always stinks from the head’

Simon Rabinovitch

China’s chief banking regulator Liu Mingkang has a folksy way of explaining his work.

The Financial Times Limited

“The fish always stinks from the head” is a favourite.

This belief that regulation must focus on banks’ head offices can be seen in China’s zeal to enforce the Basel III rules. While there is talk in the United States and Europe of easing the liquidity rules, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has been pushing ahead with a set of rules that is stricter in definitions than what has been agreed internationally.

Basel III’s minimum tier one common equity requirement is 4.5 per cent

China has set its bar at 5 per cent.

For the leverage ratio, a safety net if risk-weightings fail, Basel III requires at least 3 per cent of total assets

China has opted for 4 per cent.

Even more striking is the pace Beijing has set for implementation. It has ordered its biggest banks to meet the capital requirements by 2013, whereas banks in developed markets have until 2015.

Chinese bankers have been quick to fall in line with the new regulations. The difference with Europe and the US is easy to explain. Top bank executives are appointed by the Communist Party and answer to the government.

China’s banking sector had a capital ratio of 12.2 per cent at the end of June, well beyond Basel III standards. Banks around Asia are in a similar position, although the region has treated capital requirements as a mainly Western issue.

Japan has stood out, however, as its regulators worked hard to protect their banks from having to move too quickly to increase their capital stocks.

But the absence of complaints from Chinese bankers does not mean that the new regulations will be painless. Mr Wu Xiaoling, a former Central Bank vice-governor, has been unusually candid, warning that banks deemed systemically important could face a large funding gap in the next five years. Concern that they will have to tap equity markets to meet capital rules is one reason for their lacklustre share performance in the past year.

The tough rules are undoubtedly prudent, but they also obscure the main risk for Chinese banks:

Too much, not too little, government.

With all major lenders owned by the state, their commercial decisions are heavily dictated by Beijing.

A case in point was their surge in lending during the global financial crisis, when the government used the banks to fund its stimulus spending.

The damage in bad loans is just beginning to emerge and analysts say it will cast a shadow over the Chinese banking sector for years to come.

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The future of banking in a quandary

Despite a series of reforms, the industry remains deeply troubled three years after the fall of Lehman Brothers

Patrick Jenkins, Brooke Masters and Tom Braithwaite

A still bigger concern is the distorting effect the clampdown on Western banks might have on the few remaining growth markets — most strikingly Asia.

The continent has steered clear of much of the West’s regulatory reform, so US and European banks are diverting an artificially high volume of investment into the region — helping to inflate existing bubbles.

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The future of banking in a quandary

Despite a series of reforms, the industry remains deeply troubled three years after the fall of Lehman Brothers

Patrick Jenkins, Brooke Masters and Tom Braithwaite

A still bigger concern is the distorting effect the clampdown on Western banks might have on the few remaining growth markets — most strikingly Asia.

The continent has steered clear of much of the West’s regulatory reform, so US and European banks are diverting an artificially high volume of investment into the region — helping to inflate existing bubbles.

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S’pore’s 10 peaceful years didn’t happen by chance: PM

Mr Lee acknowledges role of Home Team, S’poreans in staying calm in turbulent times

Car olyn Quek

carolynquek@mediacorp.com.sg

wAs MAS SELAMT ESCAPE ? ? ? ?

bY CHANCE ? ? ? ?

nOt by CHANCE ? ? ? ?

whAt Is CHANCE ? ? ? ?

whAt Is by CHANCE ? ? ? ?

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The haze hits Singapore

Poor air quality and visibility in several parts of S'pore

WHAT did GEORGE YEO do to ADDRESS this ANNUAL AIR-INVASION TERRORISM ? ? ? ?

WHAT will the NEW FOREIGN MINISTER do to STOP this INTENTIAONAL NATIONAL TERRORISM ? ? ? ?

WHAT is the USE of The USELESS ASEAN MEETINGS AFTER MEETINGS ? ? ? ?

Are ALL ASEAN LEADERS BLIND or BLINDED ? ? ? ?

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Regulators, Bubbles

And the Price of Gold

By STEVEN M. DAVIDOFF

Gold is caught in a frenzy.

Its price reached a record high of $1,917.90 at one point in August, not adjusted for inflation, then plummeted by about $120 an ounce. The volatile trading is spurring claims that gold is in a bubble, one that will pop badly.

As with past booms in housing prices and Internet stocks, the four-year surge in gold prices raises the same fundamental questions for market regulators.

How should they react?

Should they react at all?

How do they even know if a bubble exists?

It is clear that speculation has been driving gold’s rise. People are buying gold as either a hedge against inflation or economic calamity or solely because they think the price will rise. As evidence of this speculation, the World Gold Council reports that demand for gold bullion bars more than doubled from 2009, to about 850 metric tons a year. This is largely gold that is bought and sits there as people wait for price increases. Indeed, demand for gold in industry and for jewelry has actually declined by 18 percent from 2004.

This speculation is aided by the financial revolution. Previously, gold could be bought by retail investors only through dealers and street shops. Now anyone can go on the Internet, click and buy gold in the market through exchange traded funds, which now hold about 2,250 metric tons of gold — or nearly a year’s worth of output.

Speculation alone doesn’t necessarily mean that gold is in a bubble.

Gold is historically viewed as a protection against inflation and tumultuous economic times. But like paper money, gold is worth only what people believe it is worth, and because of this, it is sometimes referred to as the barbarous relic. You can’t eat gold. Its industrial uses are limited. If someone else doesn’t assign the same value to gold that you do, you are out of luck.

Gold’s relative uselessness has helped spur talk of a bubble. The problem for regulators is whether this speculation is prudent hedging or people irrationally piling ever more into a bubbly asset.

As with the Internet bubble that burst in 2000, we will know if a bubble truly existed only if and when gold falls. In his book “Irrational Exuberance” ,Robert J. Shiller of Yale University notes that bubbles are created when people buy into the next great thing. They accept that this is a game-changing asset — like housing or the Internet — that cannot fail.

According to Professor Shiller, a crucial driver of a bubble in today’s modern age is the Internet and media. Commercials abound for buying gold right now. TV commentators talk about gold hitting $2,400 an ounce, which would be a genuine record (the previous high of $850 in 1980 would be about $2,300 today, adjusted for inflation).

But REGULATORS have acted as hesitantly as they did in the case of the Internet and housing bubbles.

REGULATORS NOT REGULATING ? ? ? ?

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange recently raised margin requirements for gold, the amount of money you can borrow to buy gold.

The Singapore exchange also raised margin requirements last week.

Other exchanges in other countries have not acted similarly, leading to differences that will drive gold trading to those markets.

Not only is it hard to spot a bubble, but the measures to fight it, like forcing exchanges to further raise margin requirements, are hard and controversial to put into effect.

Yet if regulators are going to stop the next bubble, they need to act aggressively.

Of course, they shouldn’t act in every circumstance, but when we see volatility and speculation as is the case of gold, acting to curb these forces in cooperation with international regulators would be a prudent course, limiting the effects of a crash.

Even if the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the primary regulator of the gold market in the United States, is hesitant to take such steps, it could, as an initial foray, take to the media to try to talk down” the speculation.

Otherwise, we’re left hoping, without much basis, that people have learned that this time will not be different, something not much in evidence in the case of gold.

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Japanese Trade Minister quits over nuclear crisis gaffe

OVER HEARD :

When pOlItIcIans are

OVER PAID, they

DIE DIE NEVER QUIT.

打死不走

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PM Lee expects more robust debates in the next Parliament

Saifulbahri Is mail

saifulbahri@mediacorp.com.sg

SINGAPORE — Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (picture) said he expects to see more robust debates in the next Parliament, which will convene on Oct 10.

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Why This Popular Investment Strategy Will Not Save Your Portfolio
Will diversifying your investments help you now?

By Bob Stokes
Tue, 06 Sep 2011 15:15:00 ET

Get Elliott wave insights like this article when you sign up for EWI's free email newsletter, The Independent. It will change the way you view the markets forever.

Privacy

So what is this popular investment approach?

You've heard the answer before: Diversification.

You probably know that the purpose of diversification is to spread risk across asset classes. The assumption is that if one asset goes down, the others will be stable or perhaps even move up.

But what if we're in a time when an " all the same market" scenario is unfolding in the financial world? What if the following description proves accurate:

" In recent years the financial markets have turned roughly together. Although to date they have not topped and bottomed on precisely the same day or even the same month (that would be too easy), their correspondence is getting tighter and tighter."

Elliott Wave Theorist, May 2011

Please take a look at the chart below.

As noted in the quote above, not all financial markets are trending together exactly. Yet the chart speaks for itself: the correlation is becoming increasingly visible.

In the stocks category alone, diversifying between sectors can leave your portfolio beaten and tattered:

" More than ever on record, individual stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index are moving in unison...

" 'It's not just stocks. It's actually all asset classes,' said [Andrew] Lo, who is...the chairman and chief investment strategist of a hedge fund. 'The U.S. dollar relative to other currencies, gold, oil and hedge fund returns have now all become very highly correlated.'"

Huffingtonpost, (8/24)

These asset-class correlations are no surprise to EWI's subscribers. You see, we first postulated our " all-the-same-market" scenario in 2002.

How do we see the " correlation scenario" unfolding in stocks, gold, silver, oil and other markets in the weeks and months ahead? The new Elliott Wave Financial Forecast updates you on our " all-the-same-market" analysis.

Plus, you get an important clue to the stock market's " ultimate destination" by reading our analysis of the trading figures for the OTC Bulletin Board, and how they correlate with the EWI Equity Culture Index.

No investment approach has been more widely preached than " diversification." It's time to take your risk-free read of the independent analysis you'll find in the September Financial Forecast. Just follow this link> >

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/09/06/Why-This-Popular-Investment-Strategy-Will-Not-Save-Your-Portfolio.aspx

DIVERSIFICATION is BEST JOKE !

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Why This Popular Investment Strategy Will Not Save Your Portfolio
Will diversifying your investments help you now?

By Bob Stokes
Tue, 06 Sep 2011 15:15:00 ET

Get Elliott wave insights like this article when you sign up for EWI's free email newsletter, The Independent. It will change the way you view the markets forever.

Privacy

So what is this popular investment approach?

You've heard the answer before: Diversification.

You probably know that the purpose of diversification is to spread risk across asset classes. The assumption is that if one asset goes down, the others will be stable or perhaps even move up.

But what if we're in a time when an " all the same market" scenario is unfolding in the financial world? What if the following description proves accurate:

" In recent years the financial markets have turned roughly together. Although to date they have not topped and bottomed on precisely the same day or even the same month (that would be too easy), their correspondence is getting tighter and tighter."

Elliott Wave Theorist, May 2011

Please take a look at the chart below.

As noted in the quote above, not all financial markets are trending together exactly. Yet the chart speaks for itself: the correlation is becoming increasingly visible.

In the stocks category alone, diversifying between sectors can leave your portfolio beaten and tattered:

" More than ever on record, individual stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index are moving in unison...

" 'It's not just stocks. It's actually all asset classes,' said [Andrew] Lo, who is...the chairman and chief investment strategist of a hedge fund. 'The U.S. dollar relative to other currencies, gold, oil and hedge fund returns have now all become very highly correlated.'"

Huffingtonpost, (8/24)

These asset-class correlations are no surprise to EWI's subscribers. You see, we first postulated our " all-the-same-market" scenario in 2002.

How do we see the " correlation scenario" unfolding in stocks, gold, silver, oil and other markets in the weeks and months ahead? The new Elliott Wave Financial Forecast updates you on our " all-the-same-market" analysis.

Plus, you get an important clue to the stock market's " ultimate destination" by reading our analysis of the trading figures for the OTC Bulletin Board, and how they correlate with the EWI Equity Culture Index.

No investment approach has been more widely preached than " diversification." It's time to take your risk-free read of the independent analysis you'll find in the September Financial Forecast. Just follow this link> >

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/09/06/Why-This-Popular-Investment-Strategy-Will-Not-Save-Your-Portfolio.aspx

DIVERSIFICATION is BEST JOKE !

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already stArted \

\

CRASHERS are

CELEBRATING NOW

des_khor ( Date: 10-Sep-2011 23:53) Posted:

Many MFT here they said can predict the market going to crash soon ? So scary !

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This week we briefly look at the dismal unemployment report, then drop back and survey some other very eye-opening data on employment. Some groups are (surprise) doing better than others. What would it take to get us back to " normal," whatever that is? I give you a link to some webinars I will be involved in and finish with the answer to the question I am asked most often, " What do you think about gold?" I tell all. There are lots of topics to cover, so let's get started with no " but firsts." (Note: this e-letter may print out rather long, as there are LOTS of charts and tables.)

The Flat Earth (Employment) Society

Unless you were completely out of touch this weekend, you know the jobs report came in flat, as in zero, nada, " 0" . The economy was in neutral, at least as far as employment was concerned. But flat is actually down, as we need 125,000 jobs a month (at least) just to stay up with population growth. And, as we will see in a few pages, it may well take more than that.

Yes, there was the caveat that 46,000 Verizon workers were on strike, so the number should have been a positive 46,000. But then there were 20,000 returning Minnesota state workers who were " added" back in, so maybe the number should be negative. As it turns out, workers on strike are counted as unemployed when they go on strike (thus subtracting from the jobs number) and are added as newly employed when they go back to work. So sometime in the next month or so, when those Verizon workers settle, the employment report will show a magic increase of 46,000.

The rules for this are arcane. If you go do the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) website - assuming you have no real social life and nothing else better to do - you find that:

Employed persons are " persons 16 years and over in the civilian non-institutional population who, during the reference week, (a) did any work at all (at least 1 hour) as paid employees worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in an enterprise operated by a member of the family and (b) all those who were not working but who had jobs or businesses from which they were temporarily absent because of vacation, illness, bad weather, childcare problems, maternity or paternity leave, labor-management dispute, job training, or other family or personal reasons, whether or not they were paid for the time off or were seeking other jobs." (Hat tip, Joan McCullough)

Somehow, strikes don't count as labor-management disputes. Or personal problems. Go figure. But that is a distortion of the monthly numbers, which is why it is better to look at rolling three-month averages to get a clearer picture. And speaking of three months, the last three months' job reports were revised down by a total of 58,000 jobs, making the net over the last three months a very small number.

However you look at this report, it was just ugly. Yet it goes along with regional reports that show a contracting economy and the national ISM (which came out Thursday), which is barely above a contractionary number, at 50.6. The ugly part of the ISM number is that this was the third straight month in which inventories rose more than new orders. Historically, as this chart from Rich Yamarone shows, that suggests we are either in or close to a recession. (Note, there are some other negative points, but they were not three months in a row and were not followed by recession.)

The US has roughly the same number of jobs today as it had in 2000, but the population is well over 30,000,000 larger.

To get to a civilian employment-to-population ratio equal to that in 2000, we would have to gain some 18 MILLION jobs.

The graph below is from the FRED database at the St. Louis Fed. (Kudos to the guys in St. Louis for maintaining such a wonderful source of data for all of us! They have thousands of charts and data sets to maintain and do so with precision, keeping things up-to-the-minute!) Note the precipitous drop in the ratio in the last ten years, especially during the recession.

x 0

This week we briefly look at the dismal unemployment report, then drop back and survey some other very eye-opening data on employment. Some groups are (surprise) doing better than others. What would it take to get us back to " normal," whatever that is? I give you a link to some webinars I will be involved in and finish with the answer to the question I am asked most often, " What do you think about gold?" I tell all. There are lots of topics to cover, so let's get started with no " but firsts." (Note: this e-letter may print out rather long, as there are LOTS of charts and tables.)

The Flat Earth (Employment) Society

Unless you were completely out of touch this weekend, you know the jobs report came in flat, as in zero, nada, " 0" . The economy was in neutral, at least as far as employment was concerned. But flat is actually down, as we need 125,000 jobs a month (at least) just to stay up with population growth. And, as we will see in a few pages, it may well take more than that.

Yes, there was the caveat that 46,000 Verizon workers were on strike, so the number should have been a positive 46,000. But then there were 20,000 returning Minnesota state workers who were " added" back in, so maybe the number should be negative. As it turns out, workers on strike are counted as unemployed when they go on strike (thus subtracting from the jobs number) and are added as newly employed when they go back to work. So sometime in the next month or so, when those Verizon workers settle, the employment report will show a magic increase of 46,000.

The rules for this are arcane. If you go do the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) website - assuming you have no real social life and nothing else better to do - you find that:

Employed persons are " persons 16 years and over in the civilian non-institutional population who, during the reference week, (a) did any work at all (at least 1 hour) as paid employees worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in an enterprise operated by a member of the family and (b) all those who were not working but who had jobs or businesses from which they were temporarily absent because of vacation, illness, bad weather, childcare problems, maternity or paternity leave, labor-management dispute, job training, or other family or personal reasons, whether or not they were paid for the time off or were seeking other jobs." (Hat tip, Joan McCullough)

Somehow, strikes don't count as labor-management disputes. Or personal problems. Go figure. But that is a distortion of the monthly numbers, which is why it is better to look at rolling three-month averages to get a clearer picture. And speaking of three months, the last three months' job reports were revised down by a total of 58,000 jobs, making the net over the last three months a very small number.

However you look at this report, it was just ugly. Yet it goes along with regional reports that show a contracting economy and the national ISM (which came out Thursday), which is barely above a contractionary number, at 50.6. The ugly part of the ISM number is that this was the third straight month in which inventories rose more than new orders. Historically, as this chart from Rich Yamarone shows, that suggests we are either in or close to a recession. (Note, there are some other negative points, but they were not three months in a row and were not followed by recession.)

The US has roughly the same number of jobs today as it had in 2000, but the population is well over 30,000,000 larger.

To get to a civilian employment-to-population ratio equal to that in 2000, we would have to gain some 18 MILLION jobs.

The graph below is from the FRED database at the St. Louis Fed. (Kudos to the guys in St. Louis for maintaining such a wonderful source of data for all of us! They have thousands of charts and data sets to maintain and do so with precision, keeping things up-to-the-minute!) Note the precipitous drop in the ratio in the last ten years, especially during the recession.

x 0

whO

Is thAt

IMMORAL wOmEn

? ? ? ?

Salute ( Date: 10-Sep-2011 09:02) Posted:

here has become such an ugly society compares to 10years ago. it's all about money, the stock market, the casino, the gaming. kids were not allowed to the game amusement parks before but on the year some influential woman in charge of big corporate, it became legalised.

they just need to generate money and no second thought of bad impact it brings.

it will be ugly sight if more game centre to be seen in public besides multi shops here and there............is this a first class life style.

we are living in a ugly world......too much of a 重金主意 , less caring and ethnics and adore of nature(especially here)