Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 19-Aug-2008 22:31 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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i don't expect STI to test it, tanglinboy, i kinda expect it to break it upon open. Reason being some of the major blues haven't yet fallen. Greateastern. jardine and such. can't predict bottoms at this point: simply watch and follow. Be careful of large gap downs due to thin queues and (hopefully not again) widespread margin calls in the coming days. |
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| 19-Aug-2008 11:25 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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oops. my mistake, hehe. no prob jchongli. yes, you must know TA very well. Alternatively: have someone set up the system, and just follow the rules. A lot of people (including meee!  ) will lose in forex because you tend to watch, get impatient, and jump for entry, even when there's no signal. 
here: for those interested in forex: check out the aptly named babypips.com http://www.babypips.com/ and of course, forex factory. http://www.forexfactory.com/ news release times are very impt for forex traders, because they can influence large movements. eg, the US NFP (non farm payrolls) is crazy to play. You can go from (+_+) to (-_-) in like, 5 min. try a demo account: http://www.igmarkets.com.sg/ click on the right-hand side of screen, free demo, and sign up. you get a 2 weeks acct to try out. 
and btw, i'm likely making it sound easier than it is. Note that in forex, it's very easy to lose money. You really MUST have tech skills, strict stop losses and DISCIPLINE. General advice is to go small, don't be too ambitious at the start: try demo acct, then mini pips (1/10th of a regular pip), then standard lots. What you need is a model that works, from there, you can just scale up or down accord to requirements. |
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| 19-Aug-2008 10:56 |
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continuing from post below.... so eg of a forex chart/trade, which is a live one i made last night to this morn: the EU pair (i like to shorten it, first letter = euro, second = USD): You can see from the hour chart that it's going down. So what you do is to short it at the channel top. i shorted at the point i marked out. Opted to take profit just now; not because its downtrend is ended ( i expect it to go down further), but because i'm going out later. hehehe. it's likely up for now anyway. So shorted at 14736, take profit 14690 => 46 pips for one standard lot. => profit of US$460 overnight. risk was a stop of 20 pips, so risk/reward for this trade was about 1: 2. (sorry, typo in earlier post: 1 pip for the EU pair = US$10). much cheaper than stocks nowadays. (-_-")... 
note: my forex skills are not up to par yet; so pls don't take me as a master on it. my channel lines may not be rightly drawn. |
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| 19-Aug-2008 10:44 |
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hullo jchongli, may i refer you to the forex junction thread. techsys is whom i'd consider to be the resident master in forex here. hehe. will attempt an intro though.... to be precise: forex is more for traders, not for investors. FDs are one aspect of it i guess: invest in the bank, and take the differential of the exchange rate. At a basic level, be it forex or FD: what you do is to long one currency against another, because you expect that the first currency (the base currency) will rise against the other. When you short the currency, it means you expect the base currency to drop against its pair. Eg, say the Euro/USD pair. Base currency = euro. So if you expect the euro to strengthen, or the USD to weaken, you'll long the pair. If you expect the euro to weaken, or the USD to strengthen, you'll go short on the pair. Each movement is known as a 'pip'. The value of that pip is on the 2nd currency. So if you play the Euro/USD, one pip is worth 1 USD. if you play the US/yen, 1 pip = 1,000 yen. To play forex though: You must have good technical skills. It's all about charts. You'll have to set up a system, alt find someone who is willing to give you their setting.
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| 19-Aug-2008 10:25 |
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notes for the day: market going down as expected. cosco with today's fall is no longer a growth stock; once it finds its balance, it'd be a range trading stock. this counter was killed not by the BBs, really but by its own inept management. A pity. jardine, SIA and a couple more of the blues still need to fall. which is where 2,680 becomes viable. Watch for bottoming in capitaland, whenever that will be. |
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| 19-Aug-2008 10:15 |
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your strat is actually like mine when i started out, tradechancellor: i basically threw almost all my savings from multiple jobs (full time, part time, whatever) into the market, save for one-two months out, so yes, it's achievable. it does require a lot, a lot of discipline though, especially if you're just starting out work. Where others can go to spend, and where they spend free time, you're taking on part-time jobs (in addition to a full time one), and you need to budget very well. Not that you starve yourself or are miserly, but it has to be a practical plan. eg, start of every year, i'll do a budget, how much i can spend each mth, the categories, and for 'frills'. To invest, the first thing needed is not FA or TA, it's money management. like what they say, if you earn 10,000 a month, but spend 12,000; compared to a man who earns 2,000 but spends 1,000. who's actually richer? Think asset gain, not asset loss. Suggest you may like to "diversify" to forex as well though, if you're keen? For one thing, with forex, you can get the old risk/reward ratio of 1: 2.5. with current stock market, really, can you find a single counter which can realistically go up 2.5x for each dollar you risk now. For another, capital startup is smaller. And it's a 24 hr market. So it's good, since you can hold a full time job, and trade at night/day, depending when your job is. If yours is a regular salaried govt-type job, you can hit your seed fund quantum by age 30-32 (depending on your NS period and degree etc). If you are in a high-paying job, you should be able to hit it by 28. Bottomline: it's achievable. So don't listen to anyone who tells you otherwise. Be prepared to pay for it, however. In terms of hours, sweat, 'tuition fees' and all. |
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| 18-Aug-2008 17:26 |
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yuppers, thanks for the additional info, CWQuah. i had considered the 2900sga too, but opted for the 3000 one instead cos it's cheaper. :P it's a perfectly valid call too.
and yes, pls note the bid/ask spread: not all warrants move fluidly. if you're trading them (personally, i prefer to trade and not convert warrants), the bid ask needs to be close together--i like it 0.005 apart--and the vol must be high enough for you to throw all your lots at one shot. |
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| 18-Aug-2008 16:51 |
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paiseh, forgot to note: if you're lkg at the capland call warrants, pls don't buy yet. just put in watchlist only. | ||
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| 18-Aug-2008 16:50 |
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the other trading idea is for capitaland call warrants; pick those with longer exp dates and strikes btwn 4.9-5.3. fyi only. i'm right now trying to get my longterm counter; and as the saying goes, never give up longterm gains for short. now's the time to start picking up counters for longterm holding. if you look at STE now, you'll see why i had said to DCA it back those weeks ago, even when it dipped to 2.49, instead of cutting. o/w, general notes: take care on marine and prop plays. livermore is right: look for infrastructure themed. for longterm players grasping for clues: (ie, longterm not shortterm traders; specifically for div yield and insulation against global downturn) the office reits are a good bet. aussie property is insulated from the current global downturn. i like one terencefok counter, asiatic. read its AR. hehe. caveat applies to all the above, as usual. |
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| 18-Aug-2008 16:42 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yah, i'm sticking wiht the plan and slowly picking up. longterm counters are dang stubborn tho; they refuse to fall. hmph. altho i guess, that's the value of a good fundie counter. :) | ||
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| 18-Aug-2008 16:13 |
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hullo, sti call warrants, ie expect STI to go up. am personally watching two: the 2800SGAeCW081230 and STI3000SGAeCW081030. note, don't buy yet pls. wait for the kind of day when everyone just mindlessly dumps, and it seems like the end of the world and there's never going to be a return, that's when you pick up an STI call. if market doesn't break, no trade. go small, pls. and caveat applies. I'm talking forward now, not backward. Rem that for warrants, run fast and run small. oh, and don't buy more than what vol appears at the bid/ask quotes. note 2: rationale for those warrants: the strike pxes and the longer dates, which allows for the runup to the nov US elections. don't risk a fast expiry warrant at this pt in time. |
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| 18-Aug-2008 15:26 |
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watch current market. live 'demo' of what i said earlier last week with regards to pivot levels: that 2,800 is a pivot point and market can go either way, with bias being for down. it's downing now. hence for rapid traders there presents an opportunity, which is to buy STI calls if index hits 2,680 and/or SSE hits 2,000, wherever the base is formed. keep eyes out for this trade. not to be entered yet. |
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| 18-Aug-2008 15:15 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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brought down also cos general market bad; traders have been waiting for a chance to short this counter. sian. there goes another one off the radar... |
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| 18-Aug-2008 15:01 |
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yups stupidfool, investing and trading are different. the ones who can make 5 digit a month, qn first: what's their starting capital? what software do they use (they are all prob using level 2 software, which can filter out the stocks on criteria)? do they only play the spore market? can they go long and short? the reality for most small fries here is that: not on margin. can't go short. no preferential broker rates. only T+3. small capital. no specialised software. only s'pore market. that's also why, for small fries, better to go longterm, really. you need to find a mtd that best enhances your chance of survival. plus, those are full time traders. am sure most here are working day jobs: how are you going to watch each and every tick? it's not possible to. |
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| 18-Aug-2008 12:08 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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small fries, please, just don't buy it. from 217 once the 2 psych mark is breached, it's down to 188 at least. the real sinking will be from 2 if it touches that. if it does, that's dead stock; don't buy no matter what. |
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| 18-Aug-2008 10:47 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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not sure abt the commods but completely agree with the infrastructure theme. and yea, vol is so low, you can either be a day trader or a longterm trader only. 
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| 18-Aug-2008 10:30 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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elfin advice remains the same: don't buy cosco til it can prove a bottom. currently, the risk of downside is still greater than any potential upside. |
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| 18-Aug-2008 10:01 |
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Forex Junction
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thanks for sharing so much, techsys. 
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| 18-Aug-2008 09:57 |
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tradechancellor, yea, your quoted figures are highly achievable to me. (assuming blend of trading plus proper investing). cwquah/livermore, yuppers. they probably have the advanced software though, to filter out the stocks based on certain parameters. because really, if you look at it, the only real rises this past month (> than one day) were the CPOs (all at the same time) and biosensors. Most of the attempted rises failed. And having the ability to short adds power to the trader's arsenal. jj, what has being pretty got to do with it or not. Would i buy a prop last year? No. Especially not in s'pore. But this year and next, yes. Especially looking at US properties. You're a speculator, a lot of your posts keep going "has it bottomed yet/is it time to buy"; it's surprising that you'd be talking of not timing the market. :P Things are only a mockery to those who cannot conceive of it. One of the attitudes i hate about singaporeans: It's a very singaporean ethos to strike out dreams that they do not deem "realistic", and to laugh at those who dare to dream it. It's also for this reason that we need to hire foreign talent to win for us. |
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| 17-Aug-2008 22:51 |
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can i assume they aren't just trading s'pore stocks, livermore? or if they are, that they can go short as well? |
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