|
Back
 x 0
 x 0
|
http://www.freewebs.com/internetwealthy/TDMACRO_03MAR2009.pdf
baseerahmed ( Date: 04-Mar-2009 11:34) Posted:
oops .. can't see the charts on either mozilla or the explorer ... copying properties also doesn't help ...
can help by uploading to hosting site and pasting here ? thanks !
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
GOLD is a SELL on Rallies | technical chart by Jason Perl (UBS)
For those who are interested in GOLD's technical chart (by Jason Perl)
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Do u trust all these "anal"-"list" call or rather trust your own TA &/or FA??
Remember, dyodd, they are not answerable to your pocket.
As I always say, it is like asking 7 blindman to describe an elephant.
Eg, UOBKH drastic moving target, adjusting their FV from one extreme to another.
rabbitfoot ( Date: 03-Mar-2009 20:50) Posted:
| Price so low, DMG still call for SELL. |
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
[Sunday, March 01, 2009 | ]
To judge by just looking at China Hongxing Sport latest price chart, people would assumed that this company has suffered big loss from their business or just issued a profit warning. Multiple support lines have just broken with huge transaction volume, at 18 cents, 15.5 cents and 11.5 cents as shown below.  In actual fact, the announced result on 17 February 2009 is within expectation if not outstanding. At least they has the qualification to announce the result under the caption of : CHINA HONGXING RECORDS SOLID REVENUE AND PROFIT GROWTH FOR FY2008. This is because for the full year of 2008, revenue surged 41.2 per cent to 2.89 billion yuan and net profit climbed 7.7 per cent to 448.5 million yuan. The actual problem is on 4th quarter 2008 which sees higher costs and a dip in profit margin thus pushed net earnings down 29.8 per cent. Worst still, they did not declare final dividend despite strong cash position. If this is not enough, there is information regarding the outstanding amount of advances to distributors amounting to RMB 1,155.5 million. This is not a small amount in comparison to their cash position of RMB 1,981.7 million. CHS’s response to SGX queries is here. CHS has responded to Business Times article (25 Feb 09, page 5) titled “Talk of accounting issues, margin calls hurts S-chips”. In short, CHS intend to “assure the financial community that the Board and management team conducts itself with the highest standards of corporate governance and transparency”. However, I found that another more ‘damaging’ article on Business Times is titled: “Is the cash really there?” The name of CHS is not mentioned, but some S-chip is mentioned. Some may find CHS fit into the category in focus: Sitting on a huge pile of cash, but there's still no sign of dividends. The article basically raises the question: 'Is the cash really really there?' The Satyam Syndrome can be deadly if not treated early!'
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
CLARIFICATION TO BUSINESS TIMES ARTICLE
We refer to the Business Times article (25 Feb 09, page 5) titled “Talk of accounting issues,
margin calls hurts S-chips”.
The Board of Directors (“Board”) of China Hongxing Sports Limited (the “Group”) wishes to
assure the financial community that the Board and management team conducts itself with the
highest standards of corporate governance and transparency. The Group has always exercised
care and caution in implementing its expansion plans and strategies and will continue to do so
in the current challenging economic climate.
In addition, the Board would like to clarify that in view of the uncertain economic environment, it
was deemed prudent to maintain its cash position and not declare a final dividend for the year.
An interim dividend of RMB0.015 per ordinary share was declared in the first half of financial
year ended 31 December 2008, which was paid to shareholders in September 2008.
The Group is in a strong net cash position, with no long term debt obligations and short term
borrowings amounting to RMB 6.0 million only. Bank and cash balances of approximately
RMB1,981.7 million as at 31 December 2008 is the largest asset in its balance sheet, resulting
in a strong net current asset base of RMB3,460.7 million. The cash will be used to support the
Group’s operations in the current financial year.
BY ORDER OF THE BOARD
Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director
Wu Rongzhao
27 February 2009
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Wow, so drastic change in theirFV.
Which "anal"-"list" to trust, it's just like asking 7 blindman to describe an elephant, so better to trust own TA.
crimson ( Date: 27-Feb-2009 10:31) Posted:
UOB-KH just down grade this counter to Sell from Buy, with prev FV$0.29 to new FV$0.11...
If the new FV is $0.11, which is current price, any views which way this will go?
Since so far understand about the company is that they are still doing well...
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Eight More Signs Gold is Overdue for a Correction
Dear Investment U Reader,
Two weeks ago I told you to short gold. And the recommendation, as I expected, ignited a brew-ha-ha on our Investment U message board.
That's because there's not much middle ground. Most investors are either fanatical or supremely skeptical. If you have any doubt, check out the comments - and all the wonderful names I got called - on our website.
But since I'm a glutton for punishment, and since gold moved in exactly the opposite direction I predicted, it's time for an update and a little clarification.
The Long and Short of It
Let me start off with a morsel of clarification. I don't hate gold. I own it, or more accurately, an interest in gold via gold mining shares. And I believe a small allocation (5% to 7%) has a useful place in a well-diversified portfolio. Over the long haul, studies confirm it helps increase returns while minimizing risk. A benefit we can all agree is desirable.
But over the short-to-intermediate term - the next six to nine months - I think gold is a terrible investment. After breaching the $1,000 per ounce mark again, as I suggested would happen to my subscribers on February 2, it is overdue for a retracement back to roughly $700 per ounce.
Those of you who expected it to drop the day after I suggested shorting gold need to understand that "short term" doesn't mean "this week." Just because it moved higher doesn't negate the point of the recommendation.
Long story short, I view shorting gold as a way for me to hedge my long-term holdings. For traders, it's a profit opportunity to consider. And whether we see eye to on this is irrelevant. Ultimately, the market will be the great arbiter of our differences.
For kicks though, let's address a few of those minor points of disagreement...
Shorting Gold is Not Really Contrarian
A small army of you suggested I was being an "arbitrary" contrarian. That no evidence, just a warm and fuzzy feeling, existed to back up my call.
Are you kidding?
Sure your "Cousin Vinnie" as chronic poster Todd opined, the trash collector or the newspaper boy might not be investing in gold. But the rest of the lemmings certainly are...
- Investments in coins and bars increased 811% in the fourth quarter, according to the World Gold Council.
- Headlines abound in the mainstream press like this one from The Financial Times - "Gold primed to be ‘mania asset.'"
- Wannabe gold bugs are paying - willfully I might add - 20% premiums for coins and small bars. Forget buying gold, we should all become coin dealers!
- Investors - like teenage girls at New Kids on the Block concerts in the late 1980s - can't reach out and touch the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) enough. It's now the second-largest ETF in the United States with a market cap of roughly $33 billion. With more than 1,000 metric tonnes of gold, speculators now control more gold than many industrialized nations. If that doesn't scream "out of whack" I don't know what does. Many of you respond by saying the investors here are institutions, so the inflows are not indicative of a top. You're wrong. Individuals, according to Morningstar, accounted for an estimated 60% to 70% of the investments in the last four years.
- The world's largest gold refinery is pumping gold coin blanks at a rate not seen in 23 years, according to Bloomberg.
- Reuters reports investment consultants are now advising pension funds and high-net worth clients to invest 5% to 7% percent allocation toward gold and gold stocks. After being an investment consultant to such clients, I can confirm such allocations are new. And will be followed, if they haven't been already.
- If you're a newsletter junkie, like myself, no doubt you also noticed the sudden explosion in "gold experts" that have some overlooked, stealth play on gold you need to consider. It's poised for 500% gains (or more), they say! All you have to do is read a 16-page teaser and sign-up for some newsletter. Marketers tap into what's hot, typically as a trend is cresting. Don't expect this time to be any different.
- From today's Wall Street Journal, futures investors are taking delivery of gold at more than double recent levels (4.5% versus 2%). Paranoia anyone?
If the above isn't sufficient evidence to be a contrarian, I don't know what qualifies then.
Why should I listen to you, Lou?
Others of you simply wanted to know, why you should listen to me - a Wall Street flunky, "idiot" or a "young analyst who thinks he's got the magic touch and will never be wrong."
Forget that the last reader - and yes it's the chronic poster and my new "buddy" Todd - is completely clueless and didn't catch my transparent about-face on the dollar here. Or my confession that I flubbed the rebound in financials.
I'm human. I will be wrong. I'm man enough to admit it. But I don't think shorting gold will be one of those times.
And if I don't have enough credentials to make such a claim, in your opinion, fine by me. Listen to someone more "qualified." Plenty of them exist that are also starting to question the merits of investing in gold, or at least acknowledge the mania...
...Newsletter god, Dennis Gartman says, "It's a little worrisome that so many people are piling in [to gold]." He expects a pullback, too. Just not as far as me.
...Peter Munk, founder of Barrick Gold, says he's never seen such strong interest in physical gold ownership.
..."This will all end badly, just like all other bubbles," predicts Leonard Kaplan, President of Prospector Asset Management, a commodities futures brokerage in Evanston, Ill.
..."Historically, when stocks begin to underperform gold, that's a sign that gold is running out of steam," according to Ray Hanson, a technical analyst at RBC.
My Biggest Concern
What really scares me is that some people take gold investing to an extreme. They actually believe in a government-orchestrated conspiracy to suppress prices, as some of you revealed in your comments.
It's pointless to engage in lengthy debates with conspiracy theorists. Logic means little. But let's suspend disbelief for a millisecond and say you're right, that the price of gold is being fixed.
Why in the world would you throw hard-earned money after the slim prospects of actually exposing and overturning the fix? Talk about a low probability of success.
But I digress. What's most troubling is many investors, including some in my industry, say gold is a forever position and they are committed to "a lifetime pattern of purchasing" and will never sell. Some of you even revealed 50% of your portfolio is invested in gold.
Here's the thing. I know that Christopher Columbus says, "Whoever possesses it [gold] is lord of all he wants. By means of gold one can even get souls into Paradise." But if financial Armageddon unfolds, which many gold bulls predict and in some sickly way wish for, gold will be priceless and worthless at the same time.
How so?
If world governments collapse, social order goes to heck, McDonald's won't magically be set-up to "make change" for your gold bars. ATMs won't spit out Krugerrands.
What's more, even if the price of gold tops, say $5,000 per ounce under such circumstances, what can you do about it? Cashing in on the gains means accepting the thing gold bugs completely despise, paper currency, in return. So indeed, it will be priceless, useless and worthless all at the same time.
Bottom line, the world isn't set up to handle gold as a currency. Not now. Not ever. It's merely an asset. And like all other assets, it's susceptible to bubbles.
If you're in the speculative mood, I recommend shorting it in the coming months. Especially since, as the saying goes, "gold goes up on an escalator and comes down in an elevator."
At the very least, examine your reasons for owning gold. If you believe the end of capitalism is nigh and financial ruin is imminent, just remember you need gold to be liquid, acceptable and portable for your investment to be really worth anything.
All three are big question marks, convincing me John Maynard Keynes was more right than most want to admit. Outside of a small allocation for diversification purposes, gold is indeed a barbarous relic.
I'm off to the message board to prepare for the onslaught of "fan mail"...
Good investing,
Lou Basenese
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
u engerlish i no unstand
handon ( Date: 26-Feb-2009 00:04) Posted:
oil countries press down.... think eagle will eat up the oily worm.... 
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
In today's Straits Times:
"CHHS told SGX tat it ws not aware of any reason for such a decrease other than the general price weakness of China-based S"pore listed companies".
It added tat it "believe the group's STRONG BALANCE SHEET is sufficient to support its business operations despite the challenging environment this year"
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
It is not all lost, read the whole quote & do not mislead & cause fear to those unaware just by mentioning partial quote,
It would only be a fair posting if the whole quote is posted.
In any case, I believe majority of forumers are wise enuf to note the misinformation u mentioned
Fyi, in case u failed to notice, I paste the whole quote again below:
"In the event of a default in repayment by a distributor, the Group will take over the distributor’s operating rights to the store and its assets in accordance with the advance agreement made with the distributor."
Also remember, CHHS is cash-rich with no debts.
hotstock ( Date: 25-Feb-2009 08:51) Posted:
the advances to the distributors are indeed terribly large. The survival of these distributors are already in stake. What is worst is that the advances are unsecured.
I see more sell off. More big hands have been and are continuing to dump |
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 1
x 1
|
Prechter Advises ‘Closing Shorts’ on U.S. Stocks
By Sarah Jones
Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Elliott Wave International Inc.’s Robert Prechter, who advised shorting U.S. stocks three months before the bear market began, said investors should now end those bets following the recent market sell off.
Prechter, chief executive of the market forecasting firm, warned in this month’s ‘Elliott Wave Theorist’ that a rebound in stocks could be “sharp and scary” for anyone who is so-called short. In a short sale, investors borrow stock and agree to sell them at a later date on hopes of capturing profit by replacing the shares after prices fall.
“This is an environment of escalating financial chaos,” wrote Prechter who first shot to fame in the 1980s after cautioning investors that stocks would crash two weeks before Black Monday. “Our main job is to keep the money we have. If we exit now, we will do that.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s U.S. equity strategist Thomas Lee today issued a “trading buy” recommendation on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as the measure yesterday tumbled to a 12-year low at 743.33 points. Lee set a “short-term” target of 800.
The S&P 500 has sunk 52 percent since its October 2007 record high as financial firms worldwide notched up $1.1 trillion in credit-related losses and the world’s largest economies fell into the first simultaneous recessions since World War II.
In July 2007, Prechter advised shorting U.S. stocks saying “aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position.” He yesterday recommended investors cover that position.
“The market is compressed,” Prechter said in the note published yesterday. “When it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than late
parkings ( Date: 24-Feb-2009 23:26) Posted:
Hi all,
I hope this is not true. But from what i calculated and what the report states, it seems that hitting 1300 is possible. |
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 1
x 0
|
Prechter Advises ‘Closing Shorts’ on U.S. Stocks
By Sarah Jones
Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Elliott Wave International Inc.’s Robert Prechter, who advised shorting U.S. stocks three months before the bear market began, said investors should now end those bets following the recent market sell off.
Prechter, chief executive of the market forecasting firm, warned in this month’s ‘Elliott Wave Theorist’ that a rebound in stocks could be “sharp and scary” for anyone who is so-called short. In a short sale, investors borrow stock and agree to sell them at a later date on hopes of capturing profit by replacing the shares after prices fall.
“This is an environment of escalating financial chaos,” wrote Prechter who first shot to fame in the 1980s after cautioning investors that stocks would crash two weeks before Black Monday. “Our main job is to keep the money we have. If we exit now, we will do that.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s U.S. equity strategist Thomas Lee today issued a “trading buy” recommendation on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as the measure yesterday tumbled to a 12-year low at 743.33 points. Lee set a “short-term” target of 800.
The S&P 500 has sunk 52 percent since its October 2007 record high as financial firms worldwide notched up $1.1 trillion in credit-related losses and the world’s largest economies fell into the first simultaneous recessions since World War II.
In July 2007, Prechter advised shorting U.S. stocks saying “aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position.” He yesterday recommended investors cover that position.
“The market is compressed,” Prechter said in the note published yesterday. “When it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than late
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
With so heavy volume changing hands between 9.5 to 13.5 cts, many of those stale bulls & weak holders would have been shaken-off & leared & a low base of high volume at this price range would definitely provide strong support & limited downside, attract bargain hunters & more upside potential.
louis_leecs ( Date: 24-Feb-2009 21:49) Posted:
| 18cts stuck so long and give out finally come,,,,,,,,,,,,,,big buyer dumping,,,,,,,,the other like fund manager also follow dump,,,,,,,,,then shortist follow up short,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,anyway must look at big share holder movement,,,see wat happen akan datang week,,,,,,,,,,hope they can escape the force selling,,,,,,,,,and further more most of the share is hold by public,,,,,,,,,,,,,,so i think allot of them suffer heavy lost........................,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,so must be very carefully ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,++++++???????period |
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
In the current extraordinary time when many companies are making losses, for CHHX to make 30% less profit is already quite an achievement, so I think it is unjustifiable being panic, herd instinct sold down.
The wise would be picking up a fire-sale & make profits from those foolish herd-instinct panic sellers throwing the baby out with the bathwater when the price starts to turn up.
des_khor ( Date: 24-Feb-2009 19:20) Posted:
Haha the MFT change thier TP liao ah !! they said everything from top to bottom...
magchan08 ( Date: 24-Feb-2009 15:02) Posted:
| the TP has been revised to around 0.215 by DBS Vickers sometime last week |
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Stock markets are by nature driven by greed & fear & tends to overshoot.
Presently, irrational fear has caused CHHS to overshoot to the downside to present while smart money are quietly accumulating while creating fear & shaking off weak holders by saying waiting for lows of 5 cts, might as well say 0.5 cts.
Below extracted from DBSV Research:
Attractive valuations versus growth
We believe CHHS’ earnings should grow at a CAGR of almost 20%
between FY08 and FY10, driven by the Group’s plans to continue
expanding its number of points-of-sales by 600 per annum over the next
2 years. Backed by net cash/share of S$0.17, we believe CHHS is
significantly undervalued and reiterate our Buy call with TP at S$0.32,
pegged to 7.0x PER09.
Investor interest remained keen at our ‘Pulse of Asia’ Conference.
China Hongxing had the opportunity to meet up with over 30 fund
managers and buy-side analysts, with a packed group presentation
meeting, to provide an update on their business.
Earnings growth intact. China Hongxing maintained its optimism that
it should continue to see firm top line growth, driven by its aggressive
store expansion plan to open 600 POS per year in FY09 and FY10, which
will bring the number of stores from c. 3,850 by end FY08 to 5,050 by
end FY10. At the same time, the Group believes that with a fast-growing
segment of middle class consumers and affordability of its products
versus international brand names, that it can continue to capture more
market share. Hence, we maintain our projections that earnings of CHHS
can grow at a CAGR of almost 20% between FY08 and FY10, from 3.8
Scts to 5.4 Scts, driven mainly by its expanding store network.
RMB1.0b+ prepayment expected to be duly collected. The
prepayment paid by CHHS on behalf of distributors to secure prime
locations for new stores would be completely collected by early 2010. So
far, there has been no delay or default of distributors’ repayment. The
management has no plan to carry out such scheme again in future.
Margins sustainable. The company’s overall gross margin should also
improve in the long term, driven by a better sales mix from the highermargin
apparel and accessories segments. Since A&P budget is pegged
to revenue and there’s not much debt, the operating margin and net
margins are also expected to improve over time.
Attractive Valuation. Valuations are undemanding at 4.7x FY09 and
only 4.0x FY10 earnings, which is significantly under the peers’ average
about 7.3x FY09. Maintain Buy, with our target price at S$.032, pegged
at 7.0x PER09, backed by S$0.17 of net cash/share.
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Warning! Precious Metals and Corresponding Stocks may Fall in a Few Days!
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Radomski/feb202009.html
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 1
x 0
|
Gold overbought, fyi:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2791469&cmd=show[s155604539]&disp=P
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2791469&cmd=show[s155599672]&disp=P
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2791469&cmd=show[s155724490]&disp=P
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
My advice sis not to touch gold ETF, read my postimgs "Where Do All The Gold ETFs Get Their Bullion From? " which I copied & paste below:
Danger of trading Gold & Silver ETFs, fyi:
http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/02/12/where-do-all-the-gold-etfs-get-their-bullion-from/
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/turk/2007/0305.html
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/rubino/2007/0410.html
U can buy gold savings thru UOB as I believe Banks in S'pore are safe & should, imo, be backed by gold in their safe vault.
Also read all the postings under "GLD US$" thread, a wealth of info there posted by all our fellow kind forumers sharing.
Based on all the postings & articles i read in kitco & TA, imo, it is now overbought & correction should be forthcoming, so for me I have sold & waiting for pullback b4 buying again.
As usual dyodd.
iseemoney ( Date: 19-Feb-2009 23:54) Posted:
Folks,
I do appreciate some advice on which avenues are there is Singapore to buy physical gold and silver?
I have heard that Credit Suisse do it, but at 7% above spot. Is this true.
Do anyone have advice please?
What're the stock counter and ETFs available for paper trading in Singapore as well?
Many thanks!
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Imo, Obama is a much much better President than tat lax, war-president who believe tat the market will take care of itself without govt intervention.
To be fair to him, give him time to correct the 8 years of economic mess created by tat war-president.
idesa168 ( Date: 18-Feb-2009 23:18) Posted:
Mkt dun give Obama face. Yesterday sign $787B, it dropped. Today announce housing plan, it also drop. I think dun appear in the media may be mkt rally....hahaha!!!
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Just another among the numerous postings warning about forthcoming gold correction:
| Sunshine Profits - Speculative Alert |
|
Dear Friend,
Gold, silver and corresponding equities have recently been acting very strongly and if you followed us on the speculative transactions, your gains are quite impressive. This alert is being sent, as we believe it is no longer profitable to bet on higher prices in the short term, especially with the February options.
Quoting the previous Market Update:
"When do we sell? Since options value decreases along with the time they have until their expiration, it is usually best not to wait too long for a 'perfect exit'. In this case it means selling when at the first serious resistance level, or earlier if there are other signals that the trend may be reversing at least temporarily. As far as the latter is concerned, we will send you an alert, when we decide that this is indeed taking place.
(...)
As far as the important resistance level is concerned, please refer to the first chart mentioned in this e-mail (http://sunshineprofits.com/files/images/email_feb112009.png). There is a very important resistance level at $1000, however we would not recommend waiting for it to be reached to sell their call options, because of the decreasing time value. The closest resistance level that we need to monitor is $970. This is a few dollars below the previous top (closing price $978.70 on Jul 15-th. Should gold get above $970, we will sell our call options."
This is exactly what happened today and we have therefore closed our speculative positions. It is possible that we will get a little higher from here, perhaps gold could touch its previous intra-day high of $989.6. However waiting for it to happen would not make much sense from the risk-to-reward perspective. While the market could go higher, it is not really very probable that these levels will be achieved immediately.
An additional reason to close our long speculative positions is that the HUI to DJIA ratio approached important resistance level. This ratio emphasizes how much PM stocks are outperforming the general stock market. As this ratio decreases it suggests lower PM stocks' prices unless the general stock market rallies strongly. Even in this case, it is doubtful that a strong upswing in the gold and silver stocks would follow. Please check details on the chart below:
|
richtan ( Date: 18-Feb-2009 22:53) Posted:
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
|
|
|
