ShareJunction - Member Posts

x 0

AUSGROUP'S CEO: Unfazed by challenges

http://www.nextinsight.com.sg/content/view/1021/60/

x 0

richtan ( Date: 29-Mar-2009 17:51) Posted:

Gold and the stock markets to rally together:

Quote:

"And in that regard, I believe the Dow has bottomed and is about to start reflating … big time.

The first stop higher for the Dow: It will soon get back to the 10,000 level (in nominal terms). And if it closes above 10,000 on a weekly or monthly basis, it will then rally to over 12,000.

And in about 5 or 6 years from now you could be staring at a Dow that’s in the 35,000 range.

Gold will also be shooting to the moon, right along with stocks "

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/4-critical-qas-plus-big-profits-ahead-3-28518

freeme ( Date: 02-Apr-2009 09:52) Posted:

So many counters breakout liao.. but dun dare to go in nw!

x 0

In a bull or rising mkt, penny stocks give better % return for the same price gain, of course , vice-versa, for the same price drop, penny stock % drop will be also higher.

iPunter ( Date: 02-Apr-2009 00:05) Posted:

I am also already heavily into some penny counters... "Cheong Arrrhhhhh!!!"... hahaha... Smiley

x 0

DMG Buy Recommendation

Midas: A sound long-term investment (BUY\S$0.43\Target S$0.73)
Right place, right time.
products and polyethylene pipes, is set to enjoy strong growth on the back of the railway sector.
It will also get a boost from 32.5%-owned associate NPRT, being one of the four entities with a
licence to assemble/produce Metro train cars in China.Midas Holdings, which has investments in aluminium alloy extrusion
Order book flow should remain robust going forward.
S$120m, with deliveries stretching out over the next two years. NPRT has a much bigger order
book, clocking up RMB4.5b worth of orders (784 train cars) for delivery between FY09 and FY11.
With many more railway systems to be added in major cities and also connecting various cities,
we are confident Midas and NPRT will be adding to their current tallies.Midas’ current order book is worth
Direct beneficiary of the China stimulus package.
the Ministry of Railways (MOR) for expansion of China’s existing railway system between FY09
and FY12, mostly for intercity train systems. As much as RMB600b will be spent in FY09 out of
this RMB2 trillion. The MOR has also announced it will spend at least RMB500b on rolling stock
alone in the next four years. We have estimated that Midas will see a RMB2b surge in orders,
based on its 80% market share in AA train car body extrusion.Approximately RMB2 trillion is budgeted by
Stable earnings growth.
S$144.5m, a CAGR of 24.5%. Despite the current credit and economic crisis, we believe Midas
will continue its path of strong and stable earnings growth with the construction of a third AA
production line and higher contributions from NPRT going forward.From FY04 to FY08, Midas grew its top line 140% from S$60.2m to
Valuation.

applying a WACC of 15.5%, a beta of 1.1 and a terminal growth rate of 1%. At the last traded

price, the stock is trading at 10.1x FY09 and 7.5x FY10 P/E, offering a yield of 2.3% and 2.9%We derive a 12-month fair-value target price of S$0.73 using our DCF model,

x 0

Kim Eng Buy recommendation
1) Midas – Plant Visit Note (James KOH 64321431)
Previous day closing price: $0.415
Recommendation: Buy (maintained)
Target price: $0.68 (maintained)
Fruitful trip to China
We visited Midas last week where we had a positive first-hand look at its aluminium alloy division
in Jilin Province and the NPRT operations in Nanjing, PRC. In this visit, we also had insightful
discussions with the local operations management about the business and industry prospects.
Overall expansion plans appear on track.
Promising progress of 3rd extrusion line and downstream fabrication
Midas is in the midst of installing its 3
from 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes. We now expect this to be operational by end 09/ early 10.
Downstream fabrication machineries are also being installed at its new site, which we believe will
put Midas further ahead of the competition when they are ready by 2H09.rd production line, which would increase its annual capacity
32.5%-owned NPRT to step up a gear this year
NPRT is in the midst of an aggressive capacity expansion plan, backed by its strong S$1b
orderbook. Based on our discussion with the NPRT management, we believe the delivery
schedule for this year will be 3-4 times higher than FY08. To cope with the increase, manpower
has increased from 500 (end 2008) to 900 now.
China Ministry of Railway to continue its train-set buying spree
China’s MOR recently signed a deal with the China Northern Railway Group (CNR) for the
purchase of 100 high-speed train sets. This is equivalent to 1,600 train cars or the requirement of
about 16,000 tonnes of aluminium alloy extrusion products for its train bodies. Industry sources
reveal that this is the harbinger for another 700 train set purchases over the next 3-5 years.
Unstoppable momentum!
NPRT’s delivery schedule for FY09 gives us optimism that our associate earnings estimates can
be met. Given that organic expansion plans will likely only bear fruit for FY10, NPRT will be the
main contributor to bottom-line growth for FY09. We have kept our estimates and target price of

S$0.68 based on SOTP unchanged.

x 0

A major bottom in stocks. And a multi-month rally in the Dow that could bring it back to 10,000

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/enormous-profits-ahead-32746

x 1

x 0

MFT!!

idesa168 ( Date: 30-Mar-2009 22:13) Posted:

Dow are just a handful of 30 stocks, S&P will be a more accurate index to judge turnaround. Now S&P is 793. Will pull back to 750 to 730 in a weeks time or so. If by then it's not bounding, then we will see lower lows! That time god bless!

x 0

The smileys are courtesy of CheongWee, I copied his as I too think it looks cute.

ekekeg ( Date: 30-Mar-2009 11:02) Posted:

I like your dancing cartoons/smileys. Real cute.

richtan ( Date: 29-Mar-2009 17:51) Posted:

Gold and the stock markets to rally together:

Quote:

"And in that regard, I believe the Dow has bottomed and is about to start reflating … big time.

The first stop higher for the Dow: It will soon get back to the 10,000 level (in nominal terms). And if it closes above 10,000 on a weekly or monthly basis, it will then rally to over 12,000.

And in about 5 or 6 years from now you could be staring at a Dow that’s in the 35,000 range.

Gold will also be shooting to the moon, right along with stocks "

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/4-critical-qas-plus-big-profits-ahead-3-28518

x 0

Frankly speaking, I'm not really bothered with all this FA as I am a believer of TA as a picture tells a thousand words, all sentiments, greed, fear, FA results in the share price action which shows up in the charts, thus I trade based on chart analysis & ignore all these tgt price & do not like to be a MFT.

blackstreams ( Date: 29-Mar-2009 18:17) Posted:

I happen to agree with u on the reliability of analysts. A recent article on either Forbes or CMBC contended that over a protracted length of 30 years, analysts got 70% of their recommendations wrong. In this case, the analyst Pauline raised a few pertinent points.I personally see more downside potential than upside. Let me explain.

Downside

The money IS there in the banks which is important. This raises the question raised in the BT article u quoted - there is a huge pile of cash but not only is there no attempt to pay dividends, there is not the slightest inkling to have share buybacks to prop up prices.Why? I can only surmise they are worried. It was pointed out in another analysis in Feb that 60% of their standing orders are expiring in May. It means that they are worried about the amount of orders they can regenerate now that sales volumes are down and inventories are high.Like u say, they have to be prudent to conserve cash. Yet, rise in the demand of apparels is offset by drop in shoewear demand. Where are the profits going to come from? It'll be a constant drain on these reserves.

u also missed out on their policy of advancing inventories to distributers. This is dangerous as it is their policy to takeover the store in the event the retailers are unable to repay debts. We dont know how good they really are at direct sales yet, compared to these retailers. As such, I accepted Pauline's RMB958m capital cost at face value and factored it in as a possible downside pressure.

Upside

They're having a mtg in April to sort out their PR disaster when they didnt provide dividends but didnt give a thorough explanation of why they didnt do so. If they agree to both provide dvidends and buy back shares, is this truly good for the company?

I agree with u on the effectiveness of using moving averages to gauge sentiment altho I prefer the 126day ma myself.

Conclusion

If they declare dividends, there may be a temporary upside altho it seems to have hit a resistance at 0.11. I'm inclined to believe there's more downward pressure than upside. In fact, if they do the popular thing and allot money for dividend or share buyback, it'll deplete their cash reserves further. It would ironically be more harmful than good. Cheers.

richtan ( Date: 29-Mar-2009 00:08) Posted:

On wat basis did they "estimate that such working capital needs could potentially amount to RMB 958m", remember it is just their presumption just as they say "estimate", it could also be wrong.

Also, look at the whole mkt, how many stocks are trading at their net cash per share. Hence, never believe such thing as tgt price.

x 1

Gold and the stock markets to rally together:

Quote:

"And in that regard, I believe the Dow has bottomed and is about to start reflating … big time.

The first stop higher for the Dow: It will soon get back to the 10,000 level (in nominal terms). And if it closes above 10,000 on a weekly or monthly basis, it will then rally to over 12,000.

And in about 5 or 6 years from now you could be staring at a Dow that’s in the 35,000 range.

Gold will also be shooting to the moon, right along with stocks "

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/4-critical-qas-plus-big-profits-ahead-3-28518

idesa168 ( Date: 29-Mar-2009 14:15) Posted:

If anyone thinks that the last few session rally was the turning point for the downtrend, think again. With the detrimental numbers in the jobs arena, manufacturing numbers as well as personal spending and income, and most important properties sections in USA, why are people so optimistic that this is the time now!

I definitely do not wish to be one throwing cold blanket, but I see STI to visit 1,200 - 1,300 before any serious turning around will happen....Just my view!

x 0

On wat basis did they "estimate that such working capital needs could potentially amount to RMB 958m", remember it is just their presumption just as they say "estimate", it could also be wrong.

Also, look at the whole mkt, how many stocks are trading at their net cash per share. Hence, never believe such thing as tgt price.

richtan ( Date: 28-Mar-2009 23:52) Posted:

Oh yah, tell me

(1) which biz is not "facing mounting pressure in a difficult operating environment" in curent extraordinary financial tsunami, turmoil, crisis, one of the most severe crisis since the great depression,

(2)Is it not a blessing that "the management is being prudent to set aside hefty working capital needs, preserving their cashflow"

(3) Given, current mkt conditions, do u expect the trade fair to generate +nn% yoy, be realistic man!!

(4) ). Is it also not a blessing that "Total orders received for 9M09 have grown by approximately 9% yoy" in current mkt condition.

(5) Does it matter tat "Rising sales volumes of apparels (+12%) were insufficient to offset a 19% volume decline for sports footwear", the bottomline is net profit, who cares if the company generates net profit even though the rising volumes of apparels (+12%) were insufficient to offset the 19% volume decline for sports footwear.

(6)...blah.. blah...blah... it boils down to whether u choose to view a cup as half emty or half full

Finally, remember, mkts are driven by human sentiments, emotions, greed, fear, thus the beauty of TA.

richtan ( Date: 28-Mar-2009 23:23) Posted:

Do u trust such fickle-minded analysis, one moment tgt price 23 ct, the next moment such drastic dropping of tgt price to 6 ct, wat next????... later on revise again the tgt price, maybe 50 ct, hahahahahaha!!!!!!.

If the initial prediction of 23 cts is a failure, I beg not to trust the revised fortune telling.

I never believe in such thing as target price as it is akin to shooting a live target, remember, mkt conditions keep changing.

I just read it like novels & occasional post for general info but dun read into it too much but rather trust my own TA analysis.

To make money, there is no shortcut & follow blindly analist tgt price, "they will bring u to holland", u have to learn to do own TA, set stop-loss & money management as even own TA never 100% right.

In any case, it is general knowledge that majority of analist are never right in their tgt price thus the need for frequent adjustment, u think they are god???, no they are not but just purely crystal ball gazing based on their perception of all the info they had. To me, they are just Market Fortune Teller.

Trust me, give the same set of info to 7 analist & u will have many diverse & different calls, just like asking 7 blind man to describe an elephant.

Show me an analist who stick unwaveringly to their tgt price & more than 50 % of the time are right in thier tgt & I will thank you & stick to this analist like a leech & treat him/her as my "money-god".

With the mkt so volatile, nobody can tell for sure wat will happen tomoro, let alone, trying to predict tgt price, always remember "Man propose, GOD dispose"