Latest Posts By richtan
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| 10-Apr-2009 23:03 |
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AWAKENING OF BEAR
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Return of Stock Bulls Signals Time to Sell: Technical Analysis By Patrick Rial April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Investors turned optimistic for the third time since the credit crisis started last year, gauges of sentiment among individual investors in the U.S. show, a pattern that Helmsman Global Trading says is a signal to sell. The difference between the American Association of Individual Investors Bull Index and Bear Index surged to 5.6 as of April 2. When the reading rose to 11.5 in November and 13.6 in January it coincided with the end of “bear-market rallies” of at least 21 percent by the MSCI World Index. “What that’s going to show is that people always want to look at the glass as if it is half full,” said Martin Marnick, head of trading at Helmsman Global Trading Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Using common sense you know what that general trend is. We’re in a recession and this is not the start of a bull market.” The spread, which has fluctuated between 63 and minus 54 in the past two decades, has climbed above 5 in only three periods since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. It retreated to minus 8.6 according to data released yesterday. The AAII gauges are compiled from weekly polls and track whether U.S. individual investors believe the market will rise, fall, or remain unchanged in the next six months. A negative number in the bull-bear spread indicates pessimists outnumber optimists. The reading fell to as low as negative 51 on March 5, a level not seen since October 1990, when the MSCI World was at the end of a 10-month bear market that erased 26 percent of its value. The MSCI benchmark dropped 59 percent from its October 2007 high to a 13-year low on March 9. It has since rallied 22 percent. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 27 its 30 members are likely to see their economies contract by 4.2 percent this year. To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: April 9, 2009 19:56 EDT |
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| 10-Apr-2009 23:01 |
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DOW
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Return of Stock Bulls Signals Time to Sell: Technical Analysis By Patrick Rial April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Investors turned optimistic for the third time since the credit crisis started last year, gauges of sentiment among individual investors in the U.S. show, a pattern that Helmsman Global Trading says is a signal to sell. The difference between the American Association of Individual Investors Bull Index and Bear Index surged to 5.6 as of April 2. When the reading rose to 11.5 in November and 13.6 in January it coincided with the end of “bear-market rallies” of at least 21 percent by the MSCI World Index. “What that’s going to show is that people always want to look at the glass as if it is half full,” said Martin Marnick, head of trading at Helmsman Global Trading Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Using common sense you know what that general trend is. We’re in a recession and this is not the start of a bull market.” The spread, which has fluctuated between 63 and minus 54 in the past two decades, has climbed above 5 in only three periods since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. It retreated to minus 8.6 according to data released yesterday. The AAII gauges are compiled from weekly polls and track whether U.S. individual investors believe the market will rise, fall, or remain unchanged in the next six months. A negative number in the bull-bear spread indicates pessimists outnumber optimists. The reading fell to as low as negative 51 on March 5, a level not seen since October 1990, when the MSCI World was at the end of a 10-month bear market that erased 26 percent of its value. The MSCI benchmark dropped 59 percent from its October 2007 high to a 13-year low on March 9. It has since rallied 22 percent. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 27 its 30 members are likely to see their economies contract by 4.2 percent this year. To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: April 9, 2009 19:56 EDT
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| 10-Apr-2009 22:56 |
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Be careful, dun chase after stocks. Markets are grossly overbought & ripe for corrections anytime. All it takes is a loss of momentum, the music to stop the musical chair, or an adverse news to trigger a knee-jerk correction & u end up holding "hot potatoes". Read today's Straits Times, pg D16 (10/4/09 Fri), I quote: "Despite yesterday's renewed upswing, analysts said the upward momentum in Asian mkts would be hard to sustain, as investors were still troubled by economic concerns & fears about corporate earnings. Technical indicators revealed tat Asian mkts were "showing signs of peaking this week"according to a CIMB Research report released yesterday. It noted: "Volatility is expected to remain the order of the day and we would not be surprised if Asian markets tried to challenge their highs before correcting"
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| 10-Apr-2009 22:54 |
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Are you a bear or a bull?
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A bear in bull's skin!! akin to "A wolf in sheep's skin" Hahaha!!! |
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| 10-Apr-2009 22:51 |
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Bottom already a history
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Be careful, dun chase after stocks. Markets are grossly overbought & ripe for corrections anytime. All it takes is a loss of momentum, the music to stop the musical chair, or an adverse news to trigger a knee-jerk correction & u end up holding "hot potatoes". Read today's Straits Times, pg D16 (10/4/09 Fri), I quote: "Despite yesterday's renewed upswing, analysts said the upward momentum in Asian mkts would be hard to sustain, as investors were still troubled by economic concerns & fears about corporate earnings. Technical indicators revealed tat Asian mkts were "showing signs of peaking this week"according to a CIMB Research report released yesterday. It noted: "Volatility is expected to remain the order of the day and we would not be surprised if Asian markets tried to challenge their highs before correcting"
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| 10-Apr-2009 22:44 |
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Bottom already a history
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Return of Stock Bulls Signals Time to Sell: Technical Analysis By Patrick Rial April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Investors turned optimistic for the third time since the credit crisis started last year, gauges of sentiment among individual investors in the U.S. show, a pattern that Helmsman Global Trading says is a signal to sell. The difference between the American Association of Individual Investors Bull Index and Bear Index surged to 5.6 as of April 2. When the reading rose to 11.5 in November and 13.6 in January it coincided with the end of “bear-market rallies” of at least 21 percent by the MSCI World Index. “What that’s going to show is that people always want to look at the glass as if it is half full,” said Martin Marnick, head of trading at Helmsman Global Trading Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Using common sense you know what that general trend is. We’re in a recession and this is not the start of a bull market.” The spread, which has fluctuated between 63 and minus 54 in the past two decades, has climbed above 5 in only three periods since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. It retreated to minus 8.6 according to data released yesterday. The AAII gauges are compiled from weekly polls and track whether U.S. individual investors believe the market will rise, fall, or remain unchanged in the next six months. A negative number in the bull-bear spread indicates pessimists outnumber optimists. The reading fell to as low as negative 51 on March 5, a level not seen since October 1990, when the MSCI World was at the end of a 10-month bear market that erased 26 percent of its value. The MSCI benchmark dropped 59 percent from its October 2007 high to a 13-year low on March 9. It has since rallied 22 percent. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 27 its 30 members are likely to see their economies contract by 4.2 percent this year. To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: April 9, 2009 19:56 EDT
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| 10-Apr-2009 22:34 |
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DOW & STI
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Be careful, dun chase after stocks. Markets are grossly overbought & ripe for corrections anytime. All it takes is a loss of momentum, the music to stop the musical chair, or an adverse news to trigger a knee-jerk correction & u end up holding "hot potatoes". Read today's Straits Times, pg D16 (10/4/09 Fri), I quote: "Despite yesterday's renewed upswing, analysts said the upward momentum in Asian mkts would be hard to sustain, as investors were still troubled by economic concerns & fears about corporate earnings. Technical indicators revealed tat Asian mkts were "showing signs of peaking this week"according to a CIMB Research report released yesterday. It noted: "Volatility is expected to remain the order of the day and we would not be surprised if Asian markets tried to challenge their highs before correcting" |
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| 10-Apr-2009 22:11 |
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DOW & STI
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Return of Stock Bulls Signals Time to Sell: Technical Analysis By Patrick Rial April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Investors turned optimistic for the third time since the credit crisis started last year, gauges of sentiment among individual investors in the U.S. show, a pattern that Helmsman Global Trading says is a signal to sell. The difference between the American Association of Individual Investors Bull Index and Bear Index surged to 5.6 as of April 2. When the reading rose to 11.5 in November and 13.6 in January it coincided with the end of “bear-market rallies” of at least 21 percent by the MSCI World Index. “What that’s going to show is that people always want to look at the glass as if it is half full,” said Martin Marnick, head of trading at Helmsman Global Trading Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Using common sense you know what that general trend is. We’re in a recession and this is not the start of a bull market.” The spread, which has fluctuated between 63 and minus 54 in the past two decades, has climbed above 5 in only three periods since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. It retreated to minus 8.6 according to data released yesterday. The AAII gauges are compiled from weekly polls and track whether U.S. individual investors believe the market will rise, fall, or remain unchanged in the next six months. A negative number in the bull-bear spread indicates pessimists outnumber optimists. The reading fell to as low as negative 51 on March 5, a level not seen since October 1990, when the MSCI World was at the end of a 10-month bear market that erased 26 percent of its value. The MSCI benchmark dropped 59 percent from its October 2007 high to a 13-year low on March 9. It has since rallied 22 percent. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 27 its 30 members are likely to see their economies contract by 4.2 percent this year. To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: April 9, 2009 19:56 EDT |
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| 08-Apr-2009 22:15 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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Wave count is very subjecive & complex, it is more of an art than science depending on how each individual analyse the count, thus true wave analysis practitioner always have an alternative wave count but here where is the alternative wave count??. Take a look at this, looks more professional as he offers an alternative wave count. (1) Long term less bullish wave count but long term bullish: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID369857&cmd=show[s161474176]&disp=P (2) Long Term Bullish wave count http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID369857&cmd=show[s161471755]&disp=P
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| 08-Apr-2009 14:39 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Sori, I dun make recommendation as I'm not a licensed broker or trader as no guarantees as anything can go wrong just like US, who would forsee & expect aig, lehman, citigroup, etc, all this one time stalwarts would collapse, even GIC with the cream of the crop think-tank can also be caught off-guard. Any stocks also can make u peng-san even if the stock did not peng-san if u enter at the wrong price, holding a hot potato. I trade based on TA & daily scan thru the SGX list of stocks for buy sign & practice stop-loss once I entered into a trade. I'm not sure whether we can use CPF for China ETF in SGX as my cpf invested purely in SGX approved local stocks & gold savings.
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| 08-Apr-2009 12:18 |
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S-Chip
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If u believe in China growth, then u should also believe in the potential of s-chips. Once they clean up their dirty act, they will in time to come no long branded as "scam chips" but instead, let me be the 1st to coin the term "super chips". The smart savvy trader are the ones to make big money as they dare to tred where everyone fears & exit when the masses realised its worth & the herd instinct chases it & becomes "hot potatoes".
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| 08-Apr-2009 11:16 |
AusGroup
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Ausgroup
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Good News: Ausgroup & SPC (read SPC thread) both in Natural Gas Biz From Next Insight:
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| 08-Apr-2009 10:58 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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If u believe in China growth, then u should also believe in the potential of s-chips. Once they clean up their dirty act, they will in time to come no long branded as "scam chips" but instead, let me be the 1st to coin the term "super chips". The smart savvy trader are the ones to make big money as they dare to tred where everyone fears & exit when the masses realised its worth & the herd instinct chases it & becomes "hot potatoes".
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| 08-Apr-2009 10:48 |
China Hongxing
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handon trading...
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No thanks. Even if you want to tell me, I wont trust anybody. I would prefer to trust myself & do my own homework
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| 08-Apr-2009 10:40 |
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OIC, I tot he also been affected & not immune to this crisis & also loss quite substantial. As a TA practitioner, I dun believe in long term investing, u sit the roller-coaster up & down. Dun believe me, just take a look at all the stock charts & u see most look like a "Towering Inferno" over the long term, shooting up & subsequently dying down. If u had bot at the start of the flame or anywhere b4 the peak of the flame & hold till now, u would have been burnt, toasted & fried as most of your huge profit would had been wiped off, experiencing empty happiness at the end of the day. Only the green-horn & uninitiated would buy this "long-term investing" bulshit idea but not to a trader who can make much more from chart trading.
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| 08-Apr-2009 01:05 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Wat makes u so sure, MFT??
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| 08-Apr-2009 00:45 |
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When can we reach the peak?
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08082088
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| 08-Apr-2009 00:29 |
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Pardon my ignorance, who is WB, my guess (trying to be funny bone)... Warner Brothers, Wright Brothers. Joking lah, but really, wondering who is WB?
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| 07-Apr-2009 23:00 |
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Do u trust this man?? He could have again short-sell & now scare everyone into selling so he can buy back lower, hahaha... I think he is a cunning old fox. Read the quote yourself: "Soros’s Soros Fund Management LLC was last month fined 489 million forint ($2.2 million) for attempting to manipulate the share price of OTP Bank Nyrt., Hungary’s largest bank, the country’s financial regulator said.
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| 07-Apr-2009 14:41 |
SPC
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SPC
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From KIm Eng: Good News - SPC is now diversified & no longer just a pure oil play
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