The STI is going to gap up on Monday for sure. However, that will just bring STI one more step closer to the resistance of the channel now.
Unless already in the market from March trough, buy at resistance is usually not advisable.
No matter what is the conclusion made, the fact is the risk reward ratio seems increased and increasing now.
Latest Posts By richtan
- Supreme
About richtan
|
|
| 13-Apr-2009 23:40 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
 Go to Message
|
||||
 x 0
 x 0
|
Russell 2000 Rising 36% Flashes Warning for S&P Rally (Update2) By Lynn Thomasson April 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Russell 2000 Index’s record one-month gain is sending danger signals to investors who remember how similar rallies in U.S. stocks came to an end. The gauge of companies with a median value of $301 million is beating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, where stocks have an average market value of $6.5 billion, by 9.8 percentage points. Gains in the Russell 2000 are being led by an 11-fold jump in Spansion Inc., a bankrupt chipmaker, and a sevenfold rise for Hayes Lemmerz International Inc., a wheel manufacturer that hasn’t had a profit since 2006. While small-caps tend to lead the way out of bear markets, when they have outpaced larger stocks by this much, both indexes erased gains and fell, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates Inc. Increased trading and ratios of advancing to falling stocks have also risen to levels that preceded declines, boosting investor concerns that the S&P 500’s 27 percent advance since March 9 will end the same way as the 24 percent rally that fizzled in January. “This move is too explosive to be sustainable,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, which oversees $60 billion. “None of the structural underpinnings of the market have really changed. It’s going to be a multiyear healing process.” The S&P 500 lost 1.1 percent to 847 as of 9:51 a.m. in New York, while the Russell 2000 slipped 1.8 percent. Profit Slump Bank losses approaching $1.3 trillion spurred the first simultaneous recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan since World War II last year, pushing the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities down as much as 57 percent from its October 2007 record. Profits among S&P 500 companies have dropped for six straight quarters and are forecast to decline for three more, the longest streak since the Great Depression, according to data from S&P and estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Mistaking a temporary jump for a sustained bull market can be costly. In 41 so-called bear market rallies since 1928 -- gains of more than 10 percent that are later wiped out -- equities fell an average 25 percent after peaking, according to Birinyi, the Westport, Connecticut-based money-management and research firm founded by Laszlo Birinyi. “Buying stocks is like crossing Fifth Avenue when the light is red,” Birinyi said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “You might make it, but the odds are not with you.” Steepest Surge Soros Fund Management LLC’s George Soros and BlackRock Inc.’s Dan Chamby also say investors should be wary of the S&P 500’s rise. The surge between March 9 and April 9 ranks as the steepest 23-day advance since 1933, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, an S&P analyst based in New York. Steeper jumps for small-cap stocks one month into a rally are signs of indiscriminate buying and usually come before equities fall, said Cleve Rueckert, a Birinyi analyst. The Russell 2000’s 36 percent climb since March 9 is its steepest since the index began in 1979, according to Bloomberg data. “It’s unusual for a new cycle to start with such an abrupt gain,” Rueckert said. “Bear market rallies are broad. Everything goes up really sharp, really fast and not necessarily for a particular reason.” None of the bull markets tracked by Birinyi included small- caps outperforming after a month by the rate they are now. On average, smaller stocks are tied with the S&P 500 at this stage of a lasting recovery, the data show. Last Time Small-caps were beating larger stocks before the end of the advance in January. The Russell 2000 increased 34 percent from Nov. 20 to Jan. 6, a stretch in which the S&P 500 index added 24 percent. The S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low two months later. “We’re not convinced that this rally will be sustained,” Chamby, who helps run the $23.5 billion BlackRock Global Allocation Fund, said on April 7 in an interview from New York. “We’re defensively positioned, so we are underweight equities.” The S&P 500 added 1.7 percent last week, extending its rebound since March 9 to 27 percent. For 2009, the index is down 5.2 percent, compared with a 6.3 percent retreat for the Russell 2000. Unprecedented stimulus measures may mean history is no guide for handicapping stocks, because the government’s $12.8 trillion of spending to revive the economy will lift earnings and keep stocks from retesting their March lows, said John Wilson of Morgan Keegan & Co. in Memphis, Tennessee. President Barack Obama has proposed a $3.6 trillion budget blueprint that he says will bring tax relief for most working Americans while making investments in energy infrastructure and education. No Connection “I don’t think just because we’ve had a sharp move in the small-caps that it means it’s a bear-market rally,” said Wilson, who helps oversee $120 billion as co-director of equity strategy. “I don’t think you can throw caution to the wind, but you can be cautiously optimistic.” Just 58 companies in the Russell 2000 have dropped since the index reached a six-year low on March 9. Sunnyvale, California-based Spansion and Hayes Lemmerz in Northville, Michigan, led the rebound. The balance of rising shares is another sign stocks may fall, Birinyi data show. From March 9 to April 9, companies on the New York Stock Exchange posted almost 17,000 more single-day advances than declines, a record compared with past equity market rallies. So-called contrarian investors argue that too widespread a recovery shows investors aren’t paying attention to fundamentals such as earnings and economic growth. Advance, Decline U.S. stocks posted the broadest increase since at least July 2004 on March 23, when 21 companies rose for each that fell on the NYSE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “We’ve run pretty far, pretty fast,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Cleveland-based Key Private Bank, which manages $22 billion. “We would be looking more for an indication of a market that claws its way off the bottom in somewhat slower moves.” Another normally bullish sign that’s increasing investor concerns is the rise in trading volume, Birinyi’s data indicate. Since March 9, the number of shares traded on the NYSE has been about 23 percent higher than in the preceding 200 days. That compares with an average 13 percent climb during the first month of bull markets. Companies in the S&P 500 may report a 38 percent decline in first-quarter earnings and those in the S&P SmallCap 600 will post a 46 percent slump, based on analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg and New York-based Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. More than 30 S&P 500 companies and at least 90 in the Russell 2000 are scheduled to release results this week. The American economy contracted at a 6.3 percent rate in the three months ending in December and is forecast to decline 5 percent in the first quarter and 1.9 percent in the next, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists. “It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around,” Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who made money last year while most peers suffered losses, said in an April 6 Bloomberg Television interview in New York. “This isn’t a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.” |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 13-Apr-2009 23:24 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
By Lynn Thomasson April 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower following its best five-week gain since the Great Depression, as Chevron Corp. and Boeing Co. predicted lower earnings and Genworth Financial Inc. failed to qualify for government bailout funds. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, retreated 2.6 percent. Boeing, the nation’s biggest commercial-plane maker, lost 6.5 percent. Genworth, which sells life insurance and mortgage coverage, plunged 28 percent as the Treasury rejected its application to become a savings and loan holding company. General Motors Corp. tumbled 14 percent on a New York Times report that federal officials have ordered the company to prepare for bankruptcy. “Buying stocks is like crossing Fifth Avenue when the light is red,” said Laszlo Birinyi, president of Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc., in a Bloomberg Television interview. “You might make it, but the odds are not with you.” The S&P 500 slid 1 percent to 847.83 at 9:34 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 79.89, or 1 percent, to 8,003.49. Markets in Europe were closed, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent. Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and General Electric Co. are among more than 30 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results this week. Profits probably fell for a seventh-straight quarter in the January-to- March period, the longest stretch of declines since at least the Great Depression. Asian Stocks Advance Asian stocks climbed for a third day as Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso doubled stimulus spending and Chinese lending jumped by a record. Treasuries rose, following three weeks of losses. The yen fell against all of the other major currencies on speculation the global financial crisis is easing. Chevron lost 2.6 percent to $67.44. Profit for the first quarter was less than the fourth quarter of 2008, when Chevron had net income of $4.9 billion, the company said in a statement April 9. The price Chevron received for U.S. crude slumped 63 percent during the quarter to $33.37 a barrel, the company said. Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest oil producer, retreated 1.9 percent to $68.54. Boeing dropped 6.5 percent $36.60. The company said it will cut production of its most profitable model next year, reducing earnings starting with the first quarter of 2009, as the global recession hurts business at airlines and cargo carriers. Genworth Financial tumbled 28 percent to $1.97. The company was rejected from becoming a savings and loan after regulators approved plans from competing life insurers including Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. to gain status as lenders, a requirement for funds from the TARP program. GM Concern GM fell 14 percent to $1.75. The Treasury Department asked the automaker to get ready for a bankruptcy filing by June 1, the New York Times reported, citing people with knowledge of the plans. The automaker contends it could still reorganize outside court, the newspaper said. The S&P 500 surged 27 percent from a 12-year low reached on March 9 through last week as investors speculated that the $12.8 trillion pledged by the administrations of Barack Obama and George W. Bush and the Federal Reserve to rescue the financial system will revive corporate profits. Citigroup, Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan said last month they made money at the start of 2009, while Wells Fargo & Co. posted higher-than-estimated earnings last week and President Obama said the economy is “starting to see progress” toward recovery. Still, earnings at S&P 500 companies probably fell 38 percent on average in the first quarter, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profits may drop 31 percent in the second quarter and 18 percent in the next before gaining 74 percent in the last three months of the year, analysts predict |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 13-Apr-2009 23:13 |
Others
/
DOW & STI
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
By Lynn Thomasson April 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower following its best five-week gain since the Great Depression, as Chevron Corp. and Boeing Co. predicted lower earnings and Genworth Financial Inc. failed to qualify for government bailout funds. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, retreated 2.6 percent. Boeing, the nation’s biggest commercial-plane maker, lost 6.5 percent. Genworth, which sells life insurance and mortgage coverage, plunged 28 percent as the Treasury rejected its application to become a savings and loan holding company. General Motors Corp. tumbled 14 percent on a New York Times report that federal officials have ordered the company to prepare for bankruptcy. “Buying stocks is like crossing Fifth Avenue when the light is red,” said Laszlo Birinyi, president of Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc., in a Bloomberg Television interview. “You might make it, but the odds are not with you.” The S&P 500 slid 1 percent to 847.83 at 9:34 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 79.89, or 1 percent, to 8,003.49. Markets in Europe were closed, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent. Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and General Electric Co. are among more than 30 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results this week. Profits probably fell for a seventh-straight quarter in the January-to- March period, the longest stretch of declines since at least the Great Depression. Asian Stocks Advance Asian stocks climbed for a third day as Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso doubled stimulus spending and Chinese lending jumped by a record. Treasuries rose, following three weeks of losses. The yen fell against all of the other major currencies on speculation the global financial crisis is easing. Chevron lost 2.6 percent to $67.44. Profit for the first quarter was less than the fourth quarter of 2008, when Chevron had net income of $4.9 billion, the company said in a statement April 9. The price Chevron received for U.S. crude slumped 63 percent during the quarter to $33.37 a barrel, the company said. Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest oil producer, retreated 1.9 percent to $68.54. Boeing dropped 6.5 percent $36.60. The company said it will cut production of its most profitable model next year, reducing earnings starting with the first quarter of 2009, as the global recession hurts business at airlines and cargo carriers. Genworth Financial tumbled 28 percent to $1.97. The company was rejected from becoming a savings and loan after regulators approved plans from competing life insurers including Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. to gain status as lenders, a requirement for funds from the TARP program. GM Concern GM fell 14 percent to $1.75. The Treasury Department asked the automaker to get ready for a bankruptcy filing by June 1, the New York Times reported, citing people with knowledge of the plans. The automaker contends it could still reorganize outside court, the newspaper said. The S&P 500 surged 27 percent from a 12-year low reached on March 9 through last week as investors speculated that the $12.8 trillion pledged by the administrations of Barack Obama and George W. Bush and the Federal Reserve to rescue the financial system will revive corporate profits. Citigroup, Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan said last month they made money at the start of 2009, while Wells Fargo & Co. posted higher-than-estimated earnings last week and President Obama said the economy is “starting to see progress” toward recovery. Still, earnings at S&P 500 companies probably fell 38 percent on average in the first quarter, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profits may drop 31 percent in the second quarter and 18 percent in the next before gaining 74 percent in the last three months of the year, analysts predict |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 13-Apr-2009 23:04 |
Others
/
AWAKENING OF BEAR
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
By Lynn Thomasson April 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower following its best five-week gain since the Great Depression, as Chevron Corp. and Boeing Co. predicted lower earnings and Genworth Financial Inc. failed to qualify for government bailout funds. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, retreated 2.6 percent. Boeing, the nation’s biggest commercial-plane maker, lost 6.5 percent. Genworth, which sells life insurance and mortgage coverage, plunged 28 percent as the Treasury rejected its application to become a savings and loan holding company. General Motors Corp. tumbled 14 percent on a New York Times report that federal officials have ordered the company to prepare for bankruptcy. “Buying stocks is like crossing Fifth Avenue when the light is red,” said Laszlo Birinyi, president of Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc., in a Bloomberg Television interview. “You might make it, but the odds are not with you.” The S&P 500 slid 1 percent to 847.83 at 9:34 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 79.89, or 1 percent, to 8,003.49. Markets in Europe were closed, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent. Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and General Electric Co. are among more than 30 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results this week. Profits probably fell for a seventh-straight quarter in the January-to- March period, the longest stretch of declines since at least the Great Depression. Asian Stocks Advance Asian stocks climbed for a third day as Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso doubled stimulus spending and Chinese lending jumped by a record. Treasuries rose, following three weeks of losses. The yen fell against all of the other major currencies on speculation the global financial crisis is easing. Chevron lost 2.6 percent to $67.44. Profit for the first quarter was less than the fourth quarter of 2008, when Chevron had net income of $4.9 billion, the company said in a statement April 9. The price Chevron received for U.S. crude slumped 63 percent during the quarter to $33.37 a barrel, the company said. Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest oil producer, retreated 1.9 percent to $68.54. Boeing dropped 6.5 percent $36.60. The company said it will cut production of its most profitable model next year, reducing earnings starting with the first quarter of 2009, as the global recession hurts business at airlines and cargo carriers. Genworth Financial tumbled 28 percent to $1.97. The company was rejected from becoming a savings and loan after regulators approved plans from competing life insurers including Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. to gain status as lenders, a requirement for funds from the TARP program. GM Concern GM fell 14 percent to $1.75. The Treasury Department asked the automaker to get ready for a bankruptcy filing by June 1, the New York Times reported, citing people with knowledge of the plans. The automaker contends it could still reorganize outside court, the newspaper said. The S&P 500 surged 27 percent from a 12-year low reached on March 9 through last week as investors speculated that the $12.8 trillion pledged by the administrations of Barack Obama and George W. Bush and the Federal Reserve to rescue the financial system will revive corporate profits. Citigroup, Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan said last month they made money at the start of 2009, while Wells Fargo & Co. posted higher-than-estimated earnings last week and President Obama said the economy is “starting to see progress” toward recovery. Still, earnings at S&P 500 companies probably fell 38 percent on average in the first quarter, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profits may drop 31 percent in the second quarter and 18 percent in the next before gaining 74 percent in the last three months of the year, analysts predict |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 13-Apr-2009 23:02 |
Others
/
DOW
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
By Lynn Thomasson April 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower following its best five-week gain since the Great Depression, as Chevron Corp. and Boeing Co. predicted lower earnings and Genworth Financial Inc. failed to qualify for government bailout funds. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, retreated 2.6 percent. Boeing, the nation’s biggest commercial-plane maker, lost 6.5 percent. Genworth, which sells life insurance and mortgage coverage, plunged 28 percent as the Treasury rejected its application to become a savings and loan holding company. General Motors Corp. tumbled 14 percent on a New York Times report that federal officials have ordered the company to prepare for bankruptcy. “Buying stocks is like crossing Fifth Avenue when the light is red,” said Laszlo Birinyi, president of Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc., in a Bloomberg Television interview. “You might make it, but the odds are not with you.” The S&P 500 slid 1 percent to 847.83 at 9:34 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 79.89, or 1 percent, to 8,003.49. Markets in Europe were closed, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent. Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and General Electric Co. are among more than 30 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results this week. Profits probably fell for a seventh-straight quarter in the January-to- March period, the longest stretch of declines since at least the Great Depression. Asian Stocks Advance Asian stocks climbed for a third day as Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso doubled stimulus spending and Chinese lending jumped by a record. Treasuries rose, following three weeks of losses. The yen fell against all of the other major currencies on speculation the global financial crisis is easing. Chevron lost 2.6 percent to $67.44. Profit for the first quarter was less than the fourth quarter of 2008, when Chevron had net income of $4.9 billion, the company said in a statement April 9. The price Chevron received for U.S. crude slumped 63 percent during the quarter to $33.37 a barrel, the company said. Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest oil producer, retreated 1.9 percent to $68.54. Boeing dropped 6.5 percent $36.60. The company said it will cut production of its most profitable model next year, reducing earnings starting with the first quarter of 2009, as the global recession hurts business at airlines and cargo carriers. Genworth Financial tumbled 28 percent to $1.97. The company was rejected from becoming a savings and loan after regulators approved plans from competing life insurers including Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. to gain status as lenders, a requirement for funds from the TARP program. GM Concern GM fell 14 percent to $1.75. The Treasury Department asked the automaker to get ready for a bankruptcy filing by June 1, the New York Times reported, citing people with knowledge of the plans. The automaker contends it could still reorganize outside court, the newspaper said. The S&P 500 surged 27 percent from a 12-year low reached on March 9 through last week as investors speculated that the $12.8 trillion pledged by the administrations of Barack Obama and George W. Bush and the Federal Reserve to rescue the financial system will revive corporate profits. Citigroup, Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan said last month they made money at the start of 2009, while Wells Fargo & Co. posted higher-than-estimated earnings last week and President Obama said the economy is “starting to see progress” toward recovery. Still, earnings at S&P 500 companies probably fell 38 percent on average in the first quarter, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profits may drop 31 percent in the second quarter and 18 percent in the next before gaining 74 percent in the last three months of the year, analysts predict |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 17:51 |
Others
/
Happy CNY 2009 Coming
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
Why are u pple posting in the wrong thread, the posting doesn't match the thread heading. Kindly post in the correct relevant appropriate thread, otherwise your posting may b skipped if the thread heading appears irrelevant to forumers as I believe most of us will scan the thread heading to decide whether to open & read. I had all along skip this thread as the heading appears irrelevant to me now but somehow, out of curiosity, click to take a look & noticed a lot of posting not matching the heading. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 16:26 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 1
|
Bullish Days Ahead But Bear Is Lying In Wait For ... Contributed by Jeflin's Investment Blog 10-Apr
We are into the fifth week of upswing in the stock market. While stock valuations remain attractive for value investors, the market is overbought and a major correction is overdue. That is not to say that this bear rally is all fluff. “Green shoots” are sprouting and there are positive long term implications for the general economy. From Ben Bernanke’s purchase of Treasuries and toxic mortgage based securities to the recently concluded G20 summit, where a $1.1 trillion stimulus for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international institutions was announced, a bullish vibe has developed. US retailers are also wearing a smile with improved sales, in a sign that shoppers may be regaining confidence to open their wallets after more than a year of recession. Of those which reported March sales, more than half topped Wall Street estimates, and a handful even raised their quarterly earnings outlook. New jobless claims also fell more than expected by three percent last week. Nevertheless, the figure which is still above 650,000 and remains at a 26-year high is not pretty and is not enough to fuel the rally by itself. What gave the rally extra legs was the announcement by Wells Fargo that it expected a “record” net income of 3 billion dollars for the first quarter. Following earlier reports by Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs that January and February were profitable months, investors were already upbeat on the financial sector’s earning reports. Still, Wells Fargo took the cake by topping market expectations with a 50% surge in earnings as compared to a year ago. The main contributor was its newly acquired bank, Wachovia while the easing of mark-to-market regulations also played a part in lowering provisions for bad loans. The new rules allow banks to value their assets, instead of marking them at the price they will get in an open market currently. There is a strong case that mark-to-market accounting undervalues assets and unreasonably hurts the balance sheets of financial institutions, especially when the market is frozen. Billions of dollars in assets have been written down and resulted in the credit crunch and worsening recession. The banks have been lobbying left, right and center with a seductive argument that lending is curtailed because they cannot meet regulatory capital requirements. But they will have enough capital if they ignore the market and value assets at what they think they’re really worth. Congress swooned at their theory and have been pressuring the FASB to change or be changed. FASB caved in, and financial institutions are now free to apply the new rules to their financial statements for the quarter that ended on March 31st. Knowing that Mr Market can be susceptible to mood swings and manipulations, having the “discerning” bankers exercise judgment in valuing their assets can reduce the irrationality. However, I am concerned that a practical idea can be taken to extreme in the hands of greedy and irresponsible people. The banks could hide reality from investors under the pretext of distressed market and take matters into their own hands. Investors are no closer to knowing how much an asset is really worth. The banks can justify themselves with complex models by employing the best mathematicians and using the most advanced super-computers but we know how ineffective modelling can be when assumptions are flawed and the unexpected happen. Will the banks assessing their own assets make them less toxic? Are the new valuation of assets based on what the banks could get selling it today or at a later time when the market comes up? Now, long run can be a misleading guide to current affairs by glossing over short term problems. Everything will even out in the long term, as any statistician will attest and the best thing is it doesn’t matter because “in the long run, we are all dead.” There will certainly be more Enrons in the making which can only be countered by the implementation of effective disclosures. If the banks are not accountable and transparent, investors are taking huge risks by placing their faith in the balance sheets. So far, no one can declare confidently that bear rally is over. It has the potential to last another couple of weeks and create higher lows before it hands back its gains. To be sure, bear market rallies that propel stocks 40% higher from their lows are a common occurrence. But investors should note that fundamentals will not be rosy in the short term. In the case of Japan, exports are down 49% from a year back. Exports to the US, Japan’s largest trading partner, collapsed by 58.4% which is especially tough for small businesses. Industrial production was down 9.4% in February and the economy contracted 12.1% in the first three months of the year. Amid the gloom, companies are forced to cut jobs and salaries. Japan is not alone and other export economies, including Singapore, are dealing with declining order books and massive job losses. The United States is the main source of demand for the world economy. Until American consumers are in a mood to buy goods or services, global trade and stock markets are not expected to boom. Nevertheless, it is encouraging to note that Japan has unleashed another fiscal stimulus of 10 trillion yen to fight the economy?s deflation. This amounts to 4% of the GDP of the country being spent on stimulus. This is a further addition to the 12 trillion yen in spending planned under a previously announced stimulus package. There is also a ton of bricks hanging precariously above our heads if the International Monetary Fund’s forecast (which will be announced on April 21) that toxic debts incurred by banks and insurance companies have could soar to $4 trillion materialize. This assessment will be hugely anticipated because of the sheer size and is nearly double the worst estimate we’ve heard so far. It is an indication of how deep the global economy is mired in debt. The latest figure will include $900 billion for toxic assets that originated in Europe and Asia. The Federal Reserve has also put the muzzle on banks on the ?stress test? results which are to be revealed after the first-quarter earnings season. In normal circumstances, investors should take the stress tests in their stride and should not cause disruption to the stocks… unless there are worms in the can or more bailouts in the pipeline. There are still much uncertainties around. The bottom of a bear market is usually marked by extreme hardships in the streets. And in the event of a sustained bull run, investors must experience a period of relative calm for accumulation, where confidence can gradually be restored and convictions allowed to steadily build. That has yet to occur. Meanwhile, enjoy the continuing rally which will be good while it last. Just don’t get stuck with delusional optimism and invest with abandon
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 16:24 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
Buying at Resistance?? The full writeup from Invest@sgx: [Sunday, April 12, 2009 | 0 comments ]
The STI is going to gap up on Monday for sure. However, that will just bring STI one more step closer to the resistance of the channel now.
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 16:19 |
Others
/
STI - Breakout or Breakdown?
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
The full writeup from Invest@sgx:
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 16:13 |
Others
/
STI - Breakout or Breakdown?
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 2
x 0
|
Bullish Days Ahead But Bear Is Lying In Wait For ... Contributed by Jeflin's Investment Blog 10-Apr We are into the fifth week of upswing in the stock market. While stock valuations remain attractive for value investors, the market is overbought and a major correction is overdue. That is not to say that this bear rally is all fluff. “Green shoots” are sprouting and there are positive long term implications for the general economy. From Ben Bernanke’s purchase of Treasuries and toxic mortgage based securities to the recently concluded G20 summit, where a $1.1 trillion stimulus for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international institutions was announced, a bullish vibe has developed. US retailers are also wearing a smile with improved sales, in a sign that shoppers may be regaining confidence to open their wallets after more than a year of recession. Of those which reported March sales, more than half topped Wall Street estimates, and a handful even raised their quarterly earnings outlook. New jobless claims also fell more than expected by three percent last week. Nevertheless, the figure which is still above 650,000 and remains at a 26-year high is not pretty and is not enough to fuel the rally by itself. What gave the rally extra legs was the announcement by Wells Fargo that it expected a “record” net income of 3 billion dollars for the first quarter. Following earlier reports by Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs that January and February were profitable months, investors were already upbeat on the financial sector’s earning reports. Still, Wells Fargo took the cake by topping market expectations with a 50% surge in earnings as compared to a year ago. The main contributor was its newly acquired bank, Wachovia while the easing of mark-to-market regulations also played a part in lowering provisions for bad loans. The new rules allow banks to value their assets, instead of marking them at the price they will get in an open market currently. There is a strong case that mark-to-market accounting undervalues assets and unreasonably hurts the balance sheets of financial institutions, especially when the market is frozen. Billions of dollars in assets have been written down and resulted in the credit crunch and worsening recession. The banks have been lobbying left, right and center with a seductive argument that lending is curtailed because they cannot meet regulatory capital requirements. But they will have enough capital if they ignore the market and value assets at what they think they’re really worth. Congress swooned at their theory and have been pressuring the FASB to change or be changed. FASB caved in, and financial institutions are now free to apply the new rules to their financial statements for the quarter that ended on March 31st. Knowing that Mr Market can be susceptible to mood swings and manipulations, having the “discerning” bankers exercise judgment in valuing their assets can reduce the irrationality. However, I am concerned that a practical idea can be taken to extreme in the hands of greedy and irresponsible people. The banks could hide reality from investors under the pretext of distressed market and take matters into their own hands. Investors are no closer to knowing how much an asset is really worth. The banks can justify themselves with complex models by employing the best mathematicians and using the most advanced super-computers but we know how ineffective modelling can be when assumptions are flawed and the unexpected happen. Will the banks assessing their own assets make them less toxic? Are the new valuation of assets based on what the banks could get selling it today or at a later time when the market comes up? Now, long run can be a misleading guide to current affairs by glossing over short term problems. Everything will even out in the long term, as any statistician will attest and the best thing is it doesn’t matter because “in the long run, we are all dead.” There will certainly be more Enrons in the making which can only be countered by the implementation of effective disclosures. If the banks are not accountable and transparent, investors are taking huge risks by placing their faith in the balance sheets. So far, no one can declare confidently that bear rally is over. It has the potential to last another couple of weeks and create higher lows before it hands back its gains. To be sure, bear market rallies that propel stocks 40% higher from their lows are a common occurrence. But investors should note that fundamentals will not be rosy in the short term. In the case of Japan, exports are down 49% from a year back. Exports to the US, Japan’s largest trading partner, collapsed by 58.4% which is especially tough for small businesses. Industrial production was down 9.4% in February and the economy contracted 12.1% in the first three months of the year. Amid the gloom, companies are forced to cut jobs and salaries. Japan is not alone and other export economies, including Singapore, are dealing with declining order books and massive job losses. The United States is the main source of demand for the world economy. Until American consumers are in a mood to buy goods or services, global trade and stock markets are not expected to boom. Nevertheless, it is encouraging to note that Japan has unleashed another fiscal stimulus of 10 trillion yen to fight the economy?s deflation. This amounts to 4% of the GDP of the country being spent on stimulus. This is a further addition to the 12 trillion yen in spending planned under a previously announced stimulus package. There is also a ton of bricks hanging precariously above our heads if the International Monetary Fund’s forecast (which will be announced on April 21) that toxic debts incurred by banks and insurance companies have could soar to $4 trillion materialize. This assessment will be hugely anticipated because of the sheer size and is nearly double the worst estimate we’ve heard so far. It is an indication of how deep the global economy is mired in debt. The latest figure will include $900 billion for toxic assets that originated in Europe and Asia. The Federal Reserve has also put the muzzle on banks on the ?stress test? results which are to be revealed after the first-quarter earnings season. In normal circumstances, investors should take the stress tests in their stride and should not cause disruption to the stocks… unless there are worms in the can or more bailouts in the pipeline. There are still much uncertainties around. The bottom of a bear market is usually marked by extreme hardships in the streets. And in the event of a sustained bull run, investors must experience a period of relative calm for accumulation, where confidence can gradually be restored and convictions allowed to steadily build. That has yet to occur. Meanwhile, enjoy the continuing rally which will be good while it last. Just don’t get stuck with delusional optimism and invest with abandon |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 02:49 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
From Philips Capital: Conclusion There are several factors in the inter-market picture that point out to us that the STI might be heading lower. The first is the strength of the US Dollar in the short term. At this juncture, the Dollar seems to be leading the way for the commodities and equities markets. A stronger Dollar would likely drag the equity markets down. The second is a momentum divergence in the S&P 500. Generally, the STI is correlated with the S&P 500 in terms of direction. A falling S&P 500 should influence the STI. The STI has also run up rather sharply and is coming off after rejecting the 1850 to 1860 region. Short term momentum for the S&P 500 and STI tell us that the odds for point towards lower prices. Support levels for the STI are 1735, 1700 and the 1655 to 1660 region. On the other hand, the above scenario would be invalidated if the STI pushes above 1820. This would indicate to us that momentum is picking up and the forecasted
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 02:32 |
Others
/
AWAKENING OF BEAR
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 1
|
Yah, u are right to say tat "the stock market had shown that it always goes against people's normal expectations... " and now the pple's normal expectation is a bull run as it has been bull for 5 straight weeks, so u should be smart enuf to know wat tat statement imply. Dun get caught off-guard by the BIG BAD BEAR, this is probably a bear rally. Even if it is not a bear rally, I would rather wait for some meaningful corrections than to get emotions high & chase after stocks. The higher it goes, the harder & more painful the fall C u at the correction or bottom very soon. Akan Datang.
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 02:19 |
Others
/
AWAKENING OF BEAR
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
But the contrarian thinks the opposite, tats why they are called contrarian, so if more & more pple declare tat the bull is dead, it could be cunning & sly BIG BAD BEAR, probably it is still alive & kicking, pretending to be dead to maul those gullible who are caught off-guard. So better to exit a bit earlier b4 the party catch fire & everyone dashing for the exit & get yourself peng kang beyond recognition (reminds me of the sad Thailand incident). So u are forewarned!!!
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 02:17 |
Others
/
AWAKENING OF BEAR
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
U have been forewarned, dun chase after stocks or u will get burnt, the writings are all over the wall. From Lim & Tan Securities: z After George Soros and Marc Faber’s warning that the recent market rally is a bear market rally and a correction is imminent, Aberdeen’s Chief Investment Officer and MD in Asia also said that he thinks the recent bear market rally is coming to an end as companies start to report bad results. z Prof Roubini who became famous by correctly predicting the current credit crisis said in an interview with Reuters that there’s still more bad news ahead for the US economy and the bear market for stocks is not over yet. He said that macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are going to be worse than expected and that is why he believes that this is still a bear market rally. z Meredith Whitney who became famous by being the earliest to warn about the current banking crisis has forecast yet another rough year for banks and that these companies still have ways to go as they continue to shed toxic assets and raise capital. z According to British newspaper “The Times”, the IMF is expected to increase their toxic asset loss forecast by financial institutions from US$3.1trn to US$4trn, even surpassing Prof Roubini’s US$3.6trn estimate. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 02:13 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
Opps, repaste after copy as text from pdf, as dun know why keeps get truncated at the end part. z z z z
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 02:05 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
U have been forewarned, dun chase after stocks or u will get burnt, the writings are all over the wall. From Lim & Tan Securities: After George Soros and Marc Faber’s warning that the recent market rally is a bear market rally and a correction is imminent, Investment Officer and MD in Asia also said that he thinks the recent bear market rally is coming to an end as companies start to report bad results. Aberdeen’s Chief�� predicting the current credit crisis said in an interview with Reuters that there’s still more bad news ahead for the US economy and the bear market for stocks is not over yet. He said that macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are going to be worse than expected and that is why he believes that this is still a bear market rally. Prof Roubini who became famous by correctly�� the earliest to warn about the current banking crisis has forecast yet another rough year for banks and that these companies still have ways to go as they continue to shed toxic assets and raise capital. Meredith Whitney who became famous by being�� IMF is expected to increase their toxic asset loss forecast by financial institutions from US$3.1trn to US$4trn, even surpassing Prof Roubini’s US$3.6trn
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 01:53 |
Others
/
Bottom already a history
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
But the contrarian thinks the opposite, tats why they are called contrarian, so if more & more pple declare tat the bull is dead, it could be cunning & sly BIG BAD BEAR, probably it is still alive & kicking, pretending to be dead to maul those gullible who are caught off-guard. So better to exit a bit earlier b4 the party catch fire & everyone dashing for the exit & get yourself peng kang beyond recognition (reminds me of the sad Thailand incident). So u are forewarned!!!
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 01:34 |
Others
/
DOW
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
U have been forewarned, dun chase after stocks or u will get burnt, the writings are all over the wall. From Lim & Tan Securities: After George Soros and Marc Faber’s warning that the recent market rally is a bear market rally and a correction is imminent, Investment Officer and MD in Asia also said that he thinks the recent bear market rally is coming to an end as companies start to report bad results. �� predicting the current credit crisis said in an interview with Reuters that there’s still more bad news ahead for the US economy and the bear market for stocks is not over yet. He said that macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are going to be worse than expected and that is why he believes that this is still a bear market rally. �� the earliest to warn about the current banking crisis has forecast yet another rough year for banks and that these companies still have ways to go as they continue to shed toxic assets and raise capital. �� IMF is expected to increase their toxic asset loss forecast by financial institutions from US$3.1trn to US$4trn, even surpassing Prof Roubini’s US$3.6trn IMF is expected to increase their toxic asset loss
forecast by financial institutions from US$3.1trn to
US$4trn, even surpassing Prof Roubini’s US$3.6trn
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Apr-2009 01:30 |
Others
/
DOW & STI
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
U have been forewarned, dun chase after stocks or u will get burnt, the writings are all over the wall. From Lim & Tan Securities: After George Soros and Marc Faber’s warning that the recent market rally is a bear market rally and a correction is imminent, Investment Officer and MD in Asia also said that he thinks the recent bear market rally is coming to an end as companies start to report bad results. Aberdeen’s Chief�� predicting the current credit crisis said in an interview with Reuters that there’s still more bad news ahead for the US economy and the bear market for stocks is not over yet. He said that macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are going to be worse than expected and that is why he believes that this is still a bear market rally. Prof Roubini who became famous by correctly�� the earliest to warn about the current banking crisis has forecast yet another rough year for banks and that these companies still have ways to go as they continue to shed toxic assets and raise capital. Meredith Whitney who became famous by being�� IMF is expected to increase their toxic asset loss forecast by financial institutions from US$3.1trn to US$4trn, even surpassing Prof Roubini’s US$3.6trn
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 10-Apr-2009 23:06 |
Others
/
AWAKENING OF BEAR
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 2
|
Ggrrrrrhhrr!!!!! Return of the BIG BAD BEAR!!! Grrrrrhrrr!!! Be careful, dun chase after stocks. Markets are grossly overbought & ripe for corrections anytime. All it takes is a loss of momentum, the music to stop the musical chair, or an adverse news to trigger a knee-jerk correction & u end up holding "hot potatoes". Read today's Straits Times, pg D16 (10/4/09 Fri), I quote: "Despite yesterday's renewed upswing, analysts said the upward momentum in Asian mkts would be hard to sustain, as investors were still troubled by economic concerns & fears about corporate earnings. Technical indicators revealed tat Asian mkts were "showing signs of peaking this week"according to a CIMB Research report released yesterday. It noted: "Volatility is expected to remain the order of the day and we would not be surprised if Asian markets tried to challenge their highs before correcting" |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| First < Newer 3001-3020 of 3268 Older> Last |