Latest Posts By pharoah88
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| 14-Sep-2011 17:44 |
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your biggest worries?
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Going green but getting nowhere Individual action, no matter how well-meaning, does not add up to enough You reduce, reuse and recycle. You turn down plastic and paper. You avoid out-of-season grapes. You do all the right things. Good. Just know that it would not save the tuna, protect the rain forest or stop global warming. The changes necessary are so large and profound that they are beyond the reach of individual action. Say you are willing to make real sacrifices. Sell your car. Forsake your air-conditioner in the summer, turn down the heat in the winter. Try to become no-impact man. You would, in fact, have no impact on the planet. Americans would continue to emit an average of 20 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year Europeans, about 10 tonnes. What about going bigger? You are the pope with a billion followers, and let’s say all of them take your advice to heart. If all Catholics decreased their emissions to zero overnight, the planet would surely notice, but pollution would still be rising. Of course, a billion people, whether they are Catholic or adherents of any other religion or creed, will do no such thing. Two weeks of silence in a Buddhist yoga retreat in the Himalayas with your BlackBerry checked at the door? Sure. An entire life voluntarily lived off the grid? No thanks. And that focuses only on those who can decrease their emissions. When your average is 20 tonnes per year, going down to 18 tonnes is as easy as taking a staycation. But if you are among the four billion on the planet who each emit one tonne a year, you have nowhere to go but up. Leading scientific groups and most climate scientists say we need to decrease global annual greenhouse gas emissions by at least half of current levels by 2050 and much further by the end of the century. And that will still mean rising temperatures and sea levels for generations. So why bother recycling or riding your bike to the store? Because we all want to do something, anything. Call it “action bias”. But, sadly, individual action does not work. It distracts us from the need for collective action, and it does not add up to enough. Self-interest, not self-sacrifice, is what induces noticeable change. Only the right economic policies will enable us as individuals to be guided by self-interest and still do the right thing for the planet. Every tonne of carbon dioxide pollution causes around US$20 (S$24.70) of damage to economies, ecosystems and human health. That sum times 20 implies US$400 worth of damage per American per year. That is not damage you are going to do in the distant future. That is damage each of us is doing right now. Who pays for it? We pay as a society. My cross-country flight adds fractions of a penny to everyone else’s cost. That knowledge leads some of us to voluntarily chip in a few bucks to “offset” our emissions. But none of these payments motivate anyone to fly less. It does not lead airlines to switch to more fuel-efficient planes or routes. If anything, airlines by now use voluntary offsets as a marketing ploy to make green-conscious passengers feel better. The result is planetary socialism at its worst: We all pay the price because individuals do not. It would not change until a regulatory system compels us to pay our fair share to limit pollution accordingly. Limit, of course, is code for “cap and trade”, the system that helped phase out lead in petrol in the ’80s, slashed acid rain pollution in the ’90s and is now bringing entire fisheries back from the brink. “Cap and trade” for carbon is beginning to decrease carbon pollution in Europe and similar models are slated to do the same from California to China. Alas, this approach has been declared dead in Washington, ironically by self-styled free-marketers. Another solution, a carbon tax, is also off the table because, well, it is a tax. Never mind that markets are truly free only when everyone pays the full price for his actions. Anything else is socialism. The reality is that we cannot overcome the global threats posed by greenhouse gases without speaking the ultimate inconvenient truth: Getting people excited about making individual environmental sacrifices is doomed to fail. Do not stop recycling. Do not stop buying local. But add mastering some basic economics to your to-do list. Our future will be largely determined by our ability to admit the need to end planetary socialism. That is the most fundamental of economics lessons and one any serious environmentalist ought to heed. THE NEW YORK TIMES
Gernot Wagner is an economist at the Environmental Defence Fund and the author of the forthcoming But Will the Planet Notice? |
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| 14-Sep-2011 17:11 |
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DBS-OC BC merger? No Thanks Once again the possibility of DBS Bank and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation merging is being raised — this time by Nomura Equity Research. While certain quarters in Government and at Temasek Holdings may welcome the possible move, a merger of the two will certainly be met with dismay by the business community.
Conrad Raj is Conrad Raj Nomura’s speculation comes a year after former Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew called for a consolidation of the local banking sector. Mr Lee felt that the three local banks had to combine to expand meaningfully within and outside of Singapore. “I would have preferred personally that there be only two banks, because I don’t think Singapore is big enough for three banks,” he told 600 bankers gathered for the 37th annual Association of Banks in Singapore (ABS) dinner on June 25 last year. Mr Lee further noted: “You can’t go abroad in a big way because there’s a limit to what you can do in the Singapore market and you need a big solid bank with the capabilities and the capital to debt ratios to go abroad.” Like Mr Lee, the advocates of merger almost invariably cite size as the main reason for such a move. As Nomura put it: “A merged banking group would rank well within the top 30 banks globally by market capitalisation and provide a distinct, wholly pan-Asian franchise headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, boosting customer acquisition and franchise valuation.” It further noted that: “Geographically, we believe OCBC would deliver dominance of the core SGD (Singapore dollar) market (citing a 35 per cent market share) and a deep, scaled up ASEAN presence, the latter a key gap for DBS that otherwise would require expensive and integration challenging acquisitions to bridge. “Operationally, OCBC’s peer-leading, strongly branded fee income franchise would offer DBS opportunity to integrate and scale-up highly synergistic product platforms i.e. life insurance, private banking and Islamic finance while expertise in SMEs (small and medium sized enterprises), CASA (current accounts/savings accounts) capture and risk management would also be very valuable.” For the critics, a merger would mean one less competitor — not good where customers really want to be spoilt for choice. I had argued against further consolidation then and do so again. Barely two decades ago, we had more than half-a-dozen independent local banks, now we have just three–four, if you include the locally-incorporated company of America’s Citibank and six if you look at the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s website. According to the MAS, besides United Overseas Bank, OCBC Bank and DBS, there is also the UOB subsidiary Far Eastern Bank, and the OCBC subsidiaries, Bank of Singapore and Singapore Island Bank. Earlier the market had more than a dozen local banks. First Tat Lee Bank merged with Keppel Bank and that entity was swallowed up by OCBC which had previously taken over the Bank of Singapore. POSB Bank got bought up by DBS while Overseas Union Bank got taken over by UOB which had earlier taken control of Far Eastern Bank, Lee Wah Bank and Chung Khiaw Bank. The inital round of mergers — prior to the mid ’80s — did indeed help UOB and OCBC to scale up. But the later rounds did not deliver as much and for their respective customers, especially the SMEs, the reduction in choice left many of them stranded without loan facilities as a different set of risk management rules kicked in. In the case of DBS’ purchase of POSB Bank, thousands of the latter’s customers were denied banking facilities as DBS felt, at the time, that it was not at all viable to maintain accounts below a certain level (the policy was later changed). With less competition, transaction costs also went up as the banks started charging for services previously free or minimal. And will all the benefits cited by Nomura be realised? After all, there are plenty of overlapping customers, especially among the sought-after wealthier customers who are loath to keep all their eggs in one basket. Many are likely to move — at least part of their wealth and business — to other banks, perhaps to foreign banks like Citi, Standard Chartered or HSBC. So the merged entity may not have the sum total of the separate banks. Like I had said previously, instead of spending their time, money and effort in the local mergers in the mid/late ’80s, perhaps they would have been better off purchasing banks overseas. But then in those days, the MAS did not really encourage our local banks from venturing too much overseas. The MAS probably felt that our banks just did not have the capacity or the resources to take on foreign partners. Although much of their more recent experience overseas has been far from satisfactory, our local banks should take another look at foreign ventures. Let’s at least maintain the current trinity and if someone or some group here can raise the money and resources to start another bank, it should be looked upon favourably. |
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| 14-Sep-2011 16:45 |
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The long slide into protectionism Three years after Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the G20’s mood has shifted dangerously This week marks not just the 10th anniversary of 9/11 — it is also the third anniversary of 9/15, the day when Lehman Brothers collapsed. But while world politics is no longer dominated by the “war on terror”, a different form of terror is stalking the world’s financial markets. The current mood among top financiers — the people formerly known as Masters of the Universe — is now more panicky than at any time since the financial crisis broke. Last week, George Soros warned that the European debt problem “has the potential to be a lot worse than Lehman Brothers”. Top bankers have been saying similar things in private for months. European politicians provide little cheer, either. One of the men charged with sorting out the euro could be heard speculating last week about “a new Great Depression and the resurgence of nationalism”. This gloom is even more worrying because there is little sign of effective international co-operation or global leadership to deal with mounting concern about the international economy. Without such leadership, there is a rising danger of a drift into protectionism and “currency wars”. The new mood of barely-suppressed hysteria set in over the summer, when the European debt crisis spread to Spain and Italy. The European Central Bank has had to step in as a major buyer of Italian and Spanish bonds — a policy so controversial that it has just provoked the resignation of Mr Jurgen Stark, a German member of the ECB’s governing board. European politicians are desperately trying to cram the genie back into the bottle. One finance minister says it is imperative that “Greece should be isolated”. But it may be too late for that. The fear is that a serious worsening of Greece’s situation would lead both to bank failures elsewhere in Europe and to further sovereign debt crises, as the markets refused to lend to the likes of Italy and Spain. The economy of the European Union, taken as a whole, is larger than that of China or the US. So a European economic, banking and debt seizure inevitably has global ramifications — particularly when the US economy is so weak. But while there are plenty of politicians who can eloquently describe the current dangers, there is little sign of a global response. That is a stark contrast to the reaction to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In 2009, the world’s leaders, meeting at the Group of 20 summit, agreed on a coordinated blast of economic stimulus that helped to restore confidence to the markets. Just as important is what they did not do. In the face of widespread predictions of a drift into 1930s-style tariff wars, the major powers committed themselves to resisting protectionism. Now compare the mood today. The appetite for international cooperation is gravely diminished. Key political leaders are looking inwards. The European Union’s leaders lurch from one emergency summit to another. Mrs Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, spends most of her time managing an increasingly fraught domestic debate, which has now taken a new twist with the resignation of Mr Stark. Mr David Cameron of Britain wants to avoid paying the bills for the euro-mess, so is content to watch from the sidelines. In France, Mr Nicolas Sarkozy would clearly like to use his leadership of the G20 to burnish his own re-election campaign — but that means that any initiatives he proposes are likely to be tailored to the media rather than the markets. The G20, once touted as a more efficient alternative to the UN, is in trouble. US President Barack Obama is preoccupied by America’s own daunting economic problems and engaged in a never-ending punch-up with the Republicans. The Chinese government remains reliably egotistical. With international politics drifting, there is now a clear danger that the world will belatedly slide into protectionism. Last week Mr Mitt Romney, one of the front-runners for the Republican party nomination in the US and a man who is generally regarded as a free-marketeer, called for the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods, if China does not allow its currency to float. Brazil took action last week, as the government imposed “anti-dumping” duties on imports of steel tubes from China. President Dilma Rousseff’s statement was a text-book example of how an economic crisis can lead to protectionism: “In the case of the current international crisis,” she announced, “our principal weapon is to expand and defend our internal market.” It was Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega who gave the world the expression “currency wars” to describe the process of competitive devaluation, as struggling economies seek to promote their exports. Last week also saw a further twist in the currency wars, as Switzerland decided that it could no longer allow the markets to drive the Swiss franc up to unprecedented levels. If other countries follow the examples of Brazil and Switzerland, and adopt drastic measures to manage their currencies, then the principle of free movement of capital around the world — one of the underpinnings of globalisation — will be weakened. There is also no scenario for the break-up of the euro zone that does not involve the reimposition of capital controls, at least for a period. Historical parallels are never precise. However, politicians might be jerked into more urgent action if they recalled the history of the 1930s. Back then, what began with a financial crisis on Wall Street turned into a Great Depression when it was followed by the rise of protectionism and a banking crisis in Europe.
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| 14-Sep-2011 16:14 |
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http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/ USD/EUR when EUR sAnk under wAter |
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| 14-Sep-2011 16:12 |
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SOVERIGN # DEBT # RATINGS
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| 14-Sep-2011 15:59 |
Genting Sing
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GenSp starts to move up again
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it's best to wait and see for now.
Concurrently 20th Sept is the date everyone is eyeing on. Mr. Bernanke will announce hopefully some juicy news which will encourage the market. Otherwise, it's best to keep your cash and get ready with it when the bulls return.
Thanks & Regards,
Kevin G
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| 13-Sep-2011 20:54 |
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| 13-Sep-2011 20:04 |
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your biggest worries?
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Burst pipe at Tang Plaza causes huge stink in Orchard - SgLinks.comsglinks.com/.../1523978-burst-pipe-tang-plaza-causes-huge-stink-orchard
You +1'd this publicly. Undo 9 hours ago – Tang Plaza flooded with sewage after pipe bursts during renovation work, prompting evacuation of basement level. Tang Plaza flooded with ...Get more results from the past 24 hours
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| 13-Sep-2011 20:02 |
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your biggest worries?
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| 13-Sep-2011 17:57 |
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What happened: Bloomberg has carried a Wall Street Journal qoute about news that BNP Paribas SA cannot borrow dollars because US money-market funds are no longer lending to it. What we think: This is dangerous. When the last credit crisis broke out in 2008. Bear Sterns was having short-term funding problems as early as 1Q08. The mortgage market had cracked then and banks were unwilling to lend to it short-term rollover money. It eventually collapsed from a shortage of funding... and Lehman was almost six months down the road. This case now is an even more outright pulling of the plug. If unconfirmed news is true, it means that more and more banks will start to doubt BNP ahead and cite counter-party risk as the danger. Watch this space! We have issued a note " Watch the liquidity squeeze!" last Friday, when we downgraded Singapore banks. If this thing continues, there will certainly be some contagion impact. Banks will be trimming their exposure to European banks. Foreign banks will be looking to depend less on interbank liquidity and shore up their own customer deposits. In any case where there is a short-term funding shortfall for any of the European banks, it can trigger a bank default and a banking contagion (even if none of the PIIGS declare default first) What you should do: Cut positions in Financials across the board, follow this space - this is a worrying potential trigger. |
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| 13-Sep-2011 16:16 |
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| 13-Sep-2011 16:14 |
Genting Sing
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GenSp starts to move up again
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| 13-Sep-2011 10:53 |
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UK banks face up to
whAt cOst On SINGAPORE BANKS refOrm ? ? ? ? |
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| 13-Sep-2011 10:51 |
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your biggest worries?
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UK banks face up to
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| 13-Sep-2011 10:49 |
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Home prices to fall by 8–10%: UOB Kay Hian [property share prices will AlsO fAll ? ? ? ?] SINGAPORE are expected to fall 8-10 per cent over the next year as government policies work their way through the market amid a worsening economy, according to brokerage UOB Kay Hian’s latest note to investors published yesterday. It has been eight months since the Government introduced stiff stamp duties of as high as 16 per cent on the seller of a residential property and lowered the loanto- value ratio to 60 per cent for individuals with one or more mortgages and 50 per cent for housing loans to buyers who are not individuals. But UOB Kay Hian highlighted the huge oncoming supply and the deteriorating macroeconomic environment as key factors for its call, adding that home-buying activity would slow down sharply once the rise in unemployment accelerates. UOB Kay Hian said property developers’ cautious stance in recent residential site auctions suggested moderating price expectations. “Biddings for recent residential sites witnessed a lukewarm market response, with top bids coming in 10 to 15 per cent below market expectation. While developers actively sought to replenish their falling land banks, the cautious bidding stance is suggestive of moderating selling price expectations amid weakening macroeconomic environment,” the report said. The report comes only days after the Real Estate Developers’ Association (REDAS) called on the Government to review its land sales programme to ensure that new supply is introduced only when the market is confident of absorbing it. REDAS on Friday had also urged the Government to review property cooling measures already in place so that genuine demand is not artificially suppressed. In the second half of this year, the Government will put up for sale 17 private residential sites under the Confirmed List of the Land Sales Programme. Including sites recently sold, about 53,000 private homes will hit the market in the next few years. At the same time, in the public housing sector, the Housing and Development Board will construct another 25,000 Build- To-Order flats next year, on top of the 25,000 already slated for this year. — Residential property pricesProperty stocks below book value, offer buying opportunity: DBS SINGAPORE at steep discounts from book value and this may make them ripe for the picking, according to a DBS Group Research report published yesterday. As earnings visibility is clouded by the current economic uncertainties, a less volatile valuation parameter to consider is the book value of assets, the report said. About 60 per cent of the stocks listed on the Singapore Exchange are currently trading below their book value and the research house said: “Among the stocks in our coverage list, most of the propertyrelated stocks are trading below book.” Among the property counters, Wing Tai is the most undervalued, currently trading at 0.5 times price-to-book value (P/BV). Wing Tai offers particularly good value because of its upcoming launches of new developments, DBS said, noting that most of its projects in Singapore are at the high end of the market. DBS also noted that Orchard Parade, in which Far East Organization has a 58.25-per-cent stake, has been trading at 0.51 times P/BV. DBS said the possible injection of some assets held by the group into a real estate investment trust made it attractive. At 0.6 times P/BV, Tuan Sing is currently trading close to its 10-year historical average. DBS said a good entry level for Tuan Sing would be closer to S$0.23, or a P/BV of about 0.47 times. DBS said Tuan Sing’s property unit contributed 77 per cent of its profit in FY2010 and potential redevelopment of its office properties would be a further catalyst. Despite the value seen in these stocks, DBS did warn that it “does not rule out the possibility of further weakness in share prices given the current uncertainties in the global market”. “It would be a more prudent move to consider these stocks should the stock market fall further, preferably closer to the STI (Straits Times Index) at the 2,600 level,” it said. The STI fell 2.9 per cent yesterday to close at 2,743.58, with the property subindex down 3 per cent, as fears of a Greek default on its sovereign debt deepened. — Property plays are tradingUOB Kay Hian said property developers’ cautious stance in recent residential site auctions suggested moderating
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| 13-Sep-2011 10:45 |
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your biggest worries?
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Poor work-life balance causing IT shortfall? |
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| 13-Sep-2011 10:41 |
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your biggest worries?
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When are offenders named after conviction? Letter from Young Pak Nang I REFER to the article “Retired civil servant jailed for violating OSA” (Sept 9), which reported that a retired senior civil servant was jailed three weeks for receiving and keeping sensitive and classified documents under the Official Secrets Act. In its statement, the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau did not identify the retired officer and declined to disclose which Government agency he had worked for. One media report said the court had directed that the man should not be named. It is not clear to me why this was done. How is justice served by protecting his identity? The fundamental issue is: How do the relevant authorities determine if any person charged for, or convicted of, a criminal offence should be named publicly? A few weeks ago, a foreign domestic worker was punished by a Court for adding her urine to the food of her employer’s family. Her name was not revealed to protect the identities of her victims. Was the intention to protect them from being ridiculed? Sex offenders are invariably not named in the press if their young victims are family members, to prevent the victims from being identified. This is understandable. But if the offence was committed against an unrelated person, the offender is usually named in the press, sometimes with an accompanying photograph. Although the offender’s innocent children could be easily identified as a result of the disclosure (and possibly ostracised or shamed by schoolmates, neighbours, etc), it appears that the push to name and shame overrides any concern to protect innocent family members from negative public fallout. I hope the relevant authorities and the Court could enlighten us on their guidelines on naming convicted persons and address the possible repercussions on
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| 13-Sep-2011 10:35 |
User Research/Opinions
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SOVERIGN # DEBT # RATINGS
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Is inflation the answer? Recently, a number of commentators have proposed a sharp, contained bout of inflation as a way to reduce debt and re-energise growth in the United States and the rest of the industrial world. Are they right?growth relatively subdued, typical troubled households could be worse off — with higher food and fuel prices cutting into disposable income. To understand this prescription, we have to comprehend the diagnosis. As Ms Carmen Reinhart and Mr Kenneth Rogoff argue, recoveries from crises that result from over-leveraged balance sheets are slow and typically resistant to traditional macro economic stimulus. Over-levered households cannot spend, over-levered banks cannot lend, and over-levered governments cannot stimulate. So, the prescription goes, why not generate higher inflation for a while? This will surprise fixed-income investors who agreed in the past to lend long term at low rates, bring down the real value of debt, and eliminate debt “overhang”, thereby re-starting growth. It is an attractive solution at first glance, but a closer look suggests cause for serious concern. Start with the question of whether central banks that have spent decades establishing and maintaining anti-inflation credibility can generate faster price growth in an environment of low interest rates. [SINGAPORE has been dOing this ? ? ? ?] Japan tried — and failed: Banks were too willing to hold the reserves that the central bank released as it bought back bonds. Perhaps if a central bank announced a higher inflation target, and implemented a financial-asset purchase programme (financed with unremunerated reserves) until the target were achieved, it could have some effect. But it is more likely that the concept of a target would lose credibility once it became changeable. Market participants might conjecture that the programme would be abandoned once it reached an alarming size — and well before the target was achieved. Moreover, the central bank needs rapid, sizeable inflation to bring down real debt values quickly — a slow increase in inflation (especially if well signalled by the central bank) would have limited effect, because maturing debt would demand not only higher nominal rates, but also an inflation-risk premium to roll over claims. Significant inflation might be hard to contain, however, especially if the central bank loses credibility: Would the public really believe that the central bank is willing to push interest rates sky high and kill growth in order to contain inflation, after it abandoned its earlier inflation target in order to foster growth? [SINGAPORE has been dOing this ? ? ? ?] Consider, next, whether the inflationary cure would work as advertised. Inflation would do little for entities with floating-rate liabilities (including the many households that borrowed towards the peak of the boom and are most underwater) or relatively short-term liabilities (banks). Even the US government, with debt duration of about four years, would be unlikely to benefit much from an inflation surprise, unless it were huge. Meanwhile, the bulk of its obligations are social security and health care, which cannot be inflated away. Even for distressed households that have borrowed long term, the effects of higher inflation are uncertain. What would help is if their nominal disposable income rose relative to their (fixed) debt service. Yet, with high levels of unemployment likely to keep nominal wage Of course, any windfall to borrowers has to come from someone else’s wealth. Inflation would clearly make creditors worse off. Who are they? Some are rich people, but they also include pensioners who moved into bonds as the stock market scared them away banks that would have to be recapitalised state pension funds that are already in the red and insurance companies that would have to default on their claims. # # # # In the best of all worlds, it would be foreigners with ample reserves who suffer the losses, but those investors might be needed to finance future deficits. So central banks would have to regain anti-inflation credibility very soon after subjecting investors to a punishing inflation. In such a world, investors would have to be far more trusting than they are in this one. This does not mean that nothing can be done about the debt problem. The US experienced debt crises periodically during the 19th century, and again during the Great Depression. Its response was to offer targeted and expedited debt relief — often by bringing in new temporary bankruptcy legislation that forced limited debt write-downs. SINGAPORE has been growing ecOnOmy on INFLATION ? INFLATIONARY INSTRUMENTS: ENBLOC COE ERP ROV GST DC lOw Interest rAtes limiting sUpply mIss-tImIng of sUpply UNdersUpply in tImes of elevAted demAnds fOreIgn labour inflUx lOw interest lOan fInancing flOOding ? ? ? ? |
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| 13-Sep-2011 09:42 |
User Research/Opinions
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your biggest worries?
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Three detained under ISA between Jan and July: MHA SINGAPORE
Starting FOREST FIRES is TERRORISM TOO ? — Three men were detained under the Internal Security Act between January and July this year for their involvement in terrorism-related activities, said the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) yesterday. |
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| 12-Sep-2011 18:15 |
Others
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why the crash soo slow?
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shOrt mOre | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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