Latest Posts By elfinchilde
- Elite
About elfinchilde
|
|
| 22-Aug-2008 14:07 |
Others
/
DOW
 Go to Message
|
||
 x 0
 x 0
|
eh, eldar, i see someone getting antsy eh? and who was the one who told me must be 'zai'. 
markets tend to have a kneejerk reaction upon opening due to newsflow; since quite a few US data comes out at abt 830pm our time, it's not a surprise for the DJIA to swing quite widely upon open. in fact, what i'd be more cautious of is no swing upon open: that means it's gathering momentum for something. eldar, if it's any comfort, the daily pivot for the UJ is 10879, and the channel is an uptrend. 
For now. 
i'm bored.... 
|
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 22-Aug-2008 13:52 |
Global Inv
/
Babcock & Brown SFF
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
note that debt is 5x shareholders value, EPS has turned from positive to negative, cashflow decreased 25% and NAV decreased from 79 to 70c from just half a year ago. => forward pricing of continued loss, NAV next H (feb09) can be expected to be abt 62.3c. If it's FA you're talking about, the question of value also has to take into account forward valuations and forward prognosis of the company and sector. Do you expect the sector to do well next year, the year after? My main concern tho is on technicals: selling by funds even btwn 30c-27.5c. on the plus side, MFI is near zero already.
|
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 22-Aug-2008 13:17 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
yea.. cost averaging must be done rightly, and at certain points only, not a buy buy buy all the way while it drops. (-_-"). and certainly not for some counters that are likely going to die til the next bull run yonks from now. a lot depends on individual mentality though. If you tell most people to cut now, their response tends to be, "siao ah! lose so much already, still tell me to cut!". (+_+) it can sometimes be very difficult to advise people, esp when, if it goes up a bit later, they'll go, "seee, why you tell me to cut!" (just speaking in generalities here; the typical singaporean mentality when it comes to investing.). i dunno, personally, i always cut loss very fast and at an early stage. looking back, there are times when i can kill myself for selling too early, but as livermore said, if you look at net position, then well, i'm glad i cut. Counters like cosco, yzj, etcetc. I had played cosco abt 6 to 7.5. then when it was done, the $5 range and the $4 range. all rapid trades. If i had held instead the first position of $6+, insisting on fundamentals, will just be crying now. |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 22-Aug-2008 12:04 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
completely agree. why they give these fund managers their money: because they think the managers--armed with shiny Ivy League degrees and polish--know more about the market than they do. I like the quote in Peanuts today. "Never trust a coyote in a tuxedo." We should look at all fund managers with All together now....
haha.
|
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 22-Aug-2008 11:56 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
whatever singaporegal said below.
if you're willing to sit longterm, then this current dip shouldn't distress you actually. wait for bottom and buy in... at the very least, you know that an index will someday recover (even if it takes years). which august did you mean anyway, last year or this? if it's this year, it isn't such a big loss yet.  You should be able to cut at slight loss/no-loss if it rebounds. If it was last august, may as well do an average down at lowest.
your supports are at 272 and 242. fyi only, usual caveat applies. no HK market. if i had known, i wouldn't bother waking up so early. 
|
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 22-Aug-2008 11:47 |
GLD USD
/
Gold going up this year?
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
they played punk on gold the last week. )(@*#&@ goldman sachs shocked down the market saying "A fundamental shift in gold has occurred", but instead, they bought it up. No wonder the dip in px yet the large accumulations.  (ref to my post below 15 aug) |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 22-Aug-2008 11:40 |
Others
/
Forex Junction
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
thanks very much for your feedback and guidance, techsys. much appreciated. 
yuppers, i usually do much simpler lines, but it so happened the pattern formed. so it was a great learning opp when it was going along, and you could watch it form.
a question if you don't mind? If you're playing the 5min chart for UJ, what's your usual profit target? |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 21-Aug-2008 17:40 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
was actually toying with the idea as a lark but now seriously thinking about it, jchongli. the demand appears to be greater than i thought. perhaps one main session followed by monthly practical workshops, so ppl can come and go as they please/need....i dunno. anyone can volunteer a location? i'll let you attend lessons for free then. plus align your portfolio for you. hehehehhe. on a more serious note: trading updates for today: to say market is bad is an understatement. they're trying to shore up the china counters; rather unexpectedly. yl, yzj, cosco, etc. there was a 9,000 lot buyup of yzj at 595 this afternoon. Yet traders have already priced in a further 300 or so pt fall in the HSI, which means they're expecting further collapse ahead. So the buying today (only the china counters) may have been done by their own directors, in a bid to avoid margin calls. Which also means this is what we need to watch out for in the coming days: forced selling by their own directors if it hits below a critical pt. Globally, something isn't right somewhere: when markets are at this low, by right, the funds come in to buy (trading or longterm). yet they're not buying, and in some counters, they're actually selling. when fundamental investors sell, that's another red flag up. On another front, the UJ has tanked: see if 10860 will hold. Bottomline: something's cooking, if you watch the global interplay of money. My guess is a major US institution is likely going to collapse. Lehman Brothers, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae. Take your pick. My bet is on Freddie Mac. til the market stabilises, it's all hands off the table. will be on holiday next week. cheers. |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 21-Aug-2008 17:31 |
Others
/
Forex Junction
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
ahhh! drew wrongly! gah. pai seh. as reattached. (and i don't like posting charts! it takes forever!) 
|
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 21-Aug-2008 17:19 |
Others
/
Forex Junction
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
hi baseer, something like that. for further clarity (pls note i'm only a beginner too yea) : my own chart as per attached. apparently, accord to a book of chart patterns, diamonds have a 73% chance of reversal; but anw, if you follow the bars, can't go far wrong. 
|
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 21-Aug-2008 16:14 |
Others
/
Forex Junction
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
hi baseer, if you draw your channel lines from a longer time period, you'll notice that the downtrend channel you drew was actually part of a diamond reversal of the longer term uptrend. |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 21-Aug-2008 14:10 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
short notes: EU rising, EJ dipping, UJ dipping and fast => carry trades are unwinding hence DJIA likely down tonight. ie, cue for traders to bail out of long positions. fyi only; caveat as usual. |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 21-Aug-2008 13:51 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
hi desire, what singaporegal, tanglinboy and novena said is right: don't put too much faith in analysts. For one thing, their job is just to issue reports (doesn't matter if they're right or wrong); and because of the vast number of companies they have to cover, most simply take easy PE ratios and CAGR figures to predict, which is why they're usually off the mark. It's a best-guess scenario more than any real TA backing. Also, analysts are the lowest position in any house: most of these reports tend to be issued by newbies in the financial industry, who are merely applying what they learnt in college; few are real players who know what the market is truly about. Those that do, tend to be in as part of the racket (ever noticed how, the moment a House issues a buy call, the stock ramps, and subsequently dies in the following weeks? If you follow TA, the initial accumulation happens before the report is issued. When the report comes out, that's a final ramp up for traders.) And if you refer to the 'what retail investors should know thread"--i've given the STI charts there. we're in a downward channel. why 2740 is quoted as the support is because it was the intraday low of Mar '08. But realistically speaking, this is a very thin support. My own expectation is more for 2,680 in the near term. cheers. |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 20-Aug-2008 12:14 |
Kim Eng
/
Kim Eng
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 1
x 0
|
hullo luostock, sorry for the delay in reply, had to go through their ARs: both coys have just released it: SGX website provides, for those who are interested. Briefly: NAV-wise, i prefer KE. NAV of 1.54, current px 1.31. KH's NAV is 1.26 while current px is 1.33. ie, KE is trading below NAV but KH is still above. PAT is down 22.6% for KE but 63% for KH. Would be expected since KH has more prop traders i believe. altho cashflow wise, KH is better; apparently their div yield is higher too, according to the ocbc website. Unknown how the departure of Gloria Lee will affect them, if at all. HLJHLJ is right tho: they're in a bad sector. so can just KIV. SGX is their weathervane: if SGX vol keeps going down, don't buy them. fyi, my initial target for ke was 126 (because that's the support). see if it breaks it or not. go for the infrastructure-themed plays as livermore suggested if you want a real chance of growth upon first rebound. conceivable to do a cantilever: first into infrastructure, then when it goes up, to shift to the brokerage stocks for 2nd wave. Note: all the above is talking long term view. Caveat applies as usual. Actually, i'd prefer them to cancel the shares rather than keep it as treasury. |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 20-Aug-2008 12:05 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
note: pls do not treat any upswing as sustainable unless proven otherwise: one day of upswing after three days of down is natural, not necessarily a "rally". If you refer to the STI channel chart posted below: even in a down channel, there'll be natural waves up and down. Fact of it is that we entered a downtrend since May 08. If you mean a confirmed downtrend, that's Jun 08. But for it to be a change to uptrend, critical levels must be broken. if it doesn't, stay light and focus on longterm accumulation. Don't go chasing after volatile counters if you aren't technically skilled/have the time to watch intraday. Most bears last two years. this is early days yet. |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 20-Aug-2008 11:44 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
will be away whole of next week. so for those wanting good counters to sit in (long term ie > 6 mths), ideas you can consider and their strikes (ref to their charts as backing): pls adjust strikes as per willingness to enter; sometimes, if you know you're going for longterm, don't quibble the few cents and miss the entire boat. oh and pls, DCA, not whack all at one time. sembcorp industries: buy at <4.15. not more than 4.25. 4.1 is good if you can get it. prep for 3.84 lowest. They've been shoring it up 409 lowest. SPC: sub-5.55. note it is a volatile counter as it's a trading stock too. Kepcorp: prep for sub 10 lowest, tho 10.2 is a good buy. Of the banks, i still prefer OCBC. If there is a rebound coming, my guess is that capland will be the fastest to rebound. will be volatile cos it's very much sold down. note capland is a blue but i actually classify it as a trading stock more than a fundie stock. yah i know, expensive stocks. but blues will move faster. Plus if it's down, at least you got the dividends. of the reits: office reits. MP and suntec are nice. Ref to charts for their lowest. Note: SIA is due for a breakout; my guess is down. Gold is always good for incubation. Because when global economies are in a recession, and fiat is in a race to the bottom, one of the havens is gold. Note the current rise of the USD is not because the US is recovering, it's because other areas--Eurozone and Asia--are going down 'worse' than it. (-_-")...fibo support gives 717, 629 and 540 lowest. I still maintain that upside (next year 1-2Q) is likely in the 900s. only two pennies i like: for incubation, not scalping. asiatic and stamfordland. Can be bought anytime now; the former is close to NAV, the latter is below. Very strong FA backing and growth evident even in this global recession. Part of the infrastructure theme livermore was talking about, tho they're in different sectors and countries. Ref to SGX website for their ARs. They're what i call snooze counters. Park in, look once every three months, collect dividend--at current prices, it's 7% and 10% div yield resp for them. --------- the trading plays will be the china plays and the commod-linked plays. up or down will be very volatile. So newbies, wld actually advise not to touch them. No sense being penny-wise pound-foolish. When overall vol is low, practically halved or a third, the risk is more than doubled. Consider if you actually want to take such risk when there in front of you are solid counters offering 10% in dividend yield alone. cheers. |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 20-Aug-2008 10:10 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
wah. there goes that person(s) who gives techies/whoever says for STI down bad post points again. 
hey, person, go look at my retailers thread, the charts last posted. Those of us who are techies and advising people to stay out since like, july: you think it's because it's what we want? I don't go short myself, this kind of market is about the worst i need. But still: as much as i want it to go up, i'd never call it other than it is. A rational person merely follows the chart. If you don't learn to go with the trend, you will only lose in the end. No amount of bad post ratings you give will change that. (altho, ozone, you may like to not wish so loudly. it does hit on sensitive nerves, yea.  )on other news: watch for SSE. if it can do a rebound, STI will follow up upon HSI's cue. Because we're regionally, we're at a low already. All it takes is one bit of good news. I'd expect capitaland to be the most sensitive reactor to good news. |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 20-Aug-2008 10:00 |
Biosensors
/
Is Biosensors a good buy?
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
agreed.
|
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 20-Aug-2008 00:48 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
since i'm practicing my channel drawing skills... for those who were wondering why some other traders here and i have been saying downtrend; and why i had earlier said that 2,800 was just a pivot, and either direction likely, tho bias is for down (this was last week on this thread). believe the charts will speak for themselves. 1st chart = STI 6 mth daily chart. 2nd chart = STI 5 year monthly chart. watch how the channels are drawn, and where the supports are derived (why the figure of 2,740-2,750 has been bandied about on other threads here as a support). note: this is not to say that STI will indeed tank to 2,400. possibility does not necessarily mean reality. nites. elfie needs to sleep. 
|
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
| 20-Aug-2008 00:16 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||
|
x 0
x 0
|
waverly, that count was for intraday; just a rough estimate using market depth and px. tradechancellor, depends on what you mean by risky. a proper management system is needed, for sure, and because of its speed, you have to be more disciplined. risk/reward ratio 1: 2.5--i meant that you go for the kind of trade where for every pip you stand to lose, you stand to gain 2.5. so a simple thing like a stop loss of 20 pips for a return of 50 pips, for instance. This kind of ratio is much, much better than trading stocks now. esp since most of the stocks now are only intraday: if we were to look at patterns: the only true rises of the past two months were essentially capitaland (that ramp from 580 to 630), biosensors, and the CPOs: which as i said, would not last beyond three days. quantum seed fund: oops, i had meant that to be your 250k capital. i assume you meant you wanted 250k so that you can trade full time. (?) startup for forex is much lower. if you're playing with mini pips, 2k to 5k is sufficient. btw, to those who msg me: apologies if my reply sometimes sound a bit abrupt/curt; if i reply during the day, normally that means i'm watching stocks, forex and a couple of forums at the same time. hehe. |
||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||
and not be 
.
, 90% of the money will always be made by the 10% of the traders. | First < Newer 301-320 of 2759 Older> Last |