Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 05-Sep-2008 11:35 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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frankly, i wouldn't believe any analyst report from a House that made such bad bets, it needs to sell itself to survive. there is no support at the 2,500-2,600 level technically fyi. 2,450 is the other major support. in any case, more realistically: BBs are churning today and it's controlled accumulation. It's a buy, peeps, not a sell. On this kind of day, you buy.
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| 05-Sep-2008 11:30 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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completely agree. another forumer on a site i frequent has this line as his quote: "A stop loss is a win." Aside, it's a buy for today. Buy, peeps, not dump, not today. (small tho). The BBs are churning to buy. The blues. look at the data clearly. It's controlled accumulation. caveat applies; i don't want to name the counters since it's on-going. so look clearly; and above all, pls don't whack.
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| 04-Sep-2008 22:32 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yuppers, trader88. excellent advice. when in doubt, stay out. 
stupidfool, lost sight? 
i kinda thought most retailers would have long have stopped rapid trading already and buckled in for long term. personally, i stopped all scalps more than a month ago, since i know my own risk appetite isn't that great and i'm not that gungho. plus, the risk/reward is simply not worth it. you make what, 10c one day, and risk losing 20c another day. may as well park in for longterm and wait.  is a good position to take in this market. 
frankly, the only ones left in this market are the day traders, gamblers and the local BBs. with the exception of foreigners who appear now and then to sell. which was why the earlier thing i had said for traders to short at channel top til trend proves otherwise. for those without the appetite or tools or capability to do rapid trading, the advice remains the same: go small, go light, look only for good counters for LONG TERM. Never give up long term gains for the short term. btw, lest anyone thinks otherwise, lemme just say that i was using biosensors as an eg only. to shed light on rapid trades, and the mistaken belief that one cannot read it on charts. But just because i can call it, doesn't mean i'll play it. one always needs to consider overall strat, portfolio requirements, money management, etc. The longterm aim must always be kept in sight. Having skills is one thing; having discipline is something else altogether.
I learnt the latter the hard way, you can be sure. 
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| 04-Sep-2008 14:38 |
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The Business Times Citibank Online Stock Challenge
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nopers ozone, no warrants. :( | ||
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| 04-Sep-2008 12:31 |
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The Business Times Citibank Online Stock Challenge
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eh jj, no fun. warrants, reits, futures, options are all excluded. :( means only motherstocks. am not sure if you can short too, actually. no fun.....meh. | ||
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| 04-Sep-2008 12:24 |
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The Business Times Citibank Online Stock Challenge
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eeeeeeeee.........nono jj, i wouldn't want my methods and all to be known. :P may just join for fun tho; but only if they have warrants. this kind of competition is purely rapid trading. HEEHEE. so just stocks alone sure cmi. throw all caution to the wind and just whack like how you can never do in real life. and either be hero or zero. 
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| 04-Sep-2008 12:16 |
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The Business Times Citibank Online Stock Challenge
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are you allowed to short, and are warrants in the game as well? man, i can imagine it'd be a wholly gungho portfolio that wins (or dies).
eeee........have to give IC no and all that. 
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| 04-Sep-2008 11:58 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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good post, thanks ed88ks. was just about to post for wannabe traders; you saved me some trouble.  btw, anyone who has good articles/sound advice for n00bs, feel free to post here as well. we should make this a collaborative SJ effort for the new 'uns. 
------------------- carrying on from ed88ks' post: for rapid trades (daily/overnight/less than 5 days): There are essentially two main patterns: ranging and breakouts. Markets range (ie, move in a pattern/channel) about 80% of the time, if not more. Breakouts tend to be rarer. However, if you play a breakout, chances are that it is more profitable. Neither is good or bad on its own; it all depends on your own risk appetite, money management skills and what you want to do. Things to note (i'll just deal with breakouts today): pls keep in mind, all in this post is for rapid trades only: nothing to do with fundamentals, nothing to do with 'good stock' or 'bad stock'. Do not overleverage. The main point of a breakout is that the stock moves in a continuous direction. So if it does not, you cut, and NOT average in. Breakouts can fail: ie, false breakouts. So the moment a breakout does not occur, you must cut it. Especially if it has far to fall from its baseline level. Those of you who follow the biosensors thread will realise that quite a few of the more experienced techies (myself included) keep saying how biosensors is "easy to play" on charts, and that it conforms to patterns, and is for techies. This is why. 
Firstly, for me (i know there are a lot who think o/w): biosensors is a rapid trading counter, nothing more. It is played for breakouts, not range. Notice the pattern: 3 days of stabilisation (dojis/small candlesticks) before a fast move one-way in 1-3 days. Very consistent. hehe. Your entry for the counter can come on any of the days highlighted. Preferably, i'd choose to enter on the morning of the runup itself; or as in the 3rd instance: the day prior, where buys outweighed sells by more than 4: 1 in a narrow range of 50-53.5c. That followed the consequent morning with a near immediate runup from 53-55c, before hitting the peak of 635. It's a very strong breakout signal. Personally, knowing this counter, i would not hold a trade in it for more than 2 days. And this, essentially, is how traders play. In a low vol market, winners are those who move fast. Don't gotta wait for it to hit 1.2, or whatever targets pundits and research houses are calling. Let them talk. You see the walk instead: in the last 20-21 trading days, you can make a conservative estimate of 30c (from initial px of 50c) from this counter. Just by following the BBs, whose movements are, as always, reflected in the charts. |
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| 02-Sep-2008 22:14 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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believe HLJHLJ meant bear rally. belated update (from my thread): i had initially expected DJIA to trade in a tight range with slight bias down; but things changed the last half hr (picking up abt 4pm actually); due to the hurricane downgrade and oil dip, which lead to HSI staging a spectacular recovery. ie, directional change for STI tmrw. what i had mentioned about linkages and how we're all linked. So traders had rushed in to buy the last hr to set up for longs (instead of shorts) in the 1630-1715 slot. overnight trades. the UJ had broken strongly upward of its pivot abt 4 pm too. agree with singaporegal. low vols. very sian actually. means V recovery which most will likely miss, and it'll be a sell into rally scenario yet again. |
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| 02-Sep-2008 17:04 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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incidentally... ever noticed how, when GS issues a report on a singapore stock/sector/index, the index will move in its direction, and then go the other way with large lots traded? Eg, GS called sell on local props just recently. but what do the charts say instead? capland is bottoming. with large buyups today. and everyday when it dips below 4.2. a lot of married trades. it's a trader's game. 413 to 440 range play for this baby. (note: above is only for rapid trades. distinct from the post below with support levels stated; that's with a 3-6mth horizon.) personally tho, i don't consider capland a sit-and-hold counter. it's a trading counter even tho it's a blue. |
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| 02-Sep-2008 16:33 |
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Goldman Sachs on Singapore Property
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good good. when GS calls sell, that's when they start buying. hehe. | ||
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| 02-Sep-2008 16:32 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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ooh. nice bounce. hehe. play the warrants instead (for rapid trades). seriously. |
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| 02-Sep-2008 15:33 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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5 yr chart for capland: 3.95 support. 3.13 support. note: DON'T try to predict the bottom; let it take its own course. wait for it to bottom, consider buying longer term (2009) capland calls instead. |
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| 02-Sep-2008 15:14 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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no prob wongmx6. :) yuppers livermore. i like leverage actually; since it affords the opp, esp in this kind of market, to diversify further. Besides, with even defensive stocks trading at close to their lows now, it gives the chance to pick up high div yielders. Say at 8% div yield, x2 on margin => 16% return on div yield alone. Assume a once a year sell trade with conservative capital gain of 5%, that means 21% return pa. Even overestimating for brokerage, interest incurred etcetc, it's a nice 15% return pa, for trading only a few times a year. Overtrading dilutes profit. Leverage does need to come with a caution notice though: a lot will overleverage; that erodes capital fast. Proper money management is key. Livermore's absolutely right here. :) ------------- On another issue: linkages of STI with other factors: annotations first for those new to the forex field: abbreviation for the pairs: EU = euro/USD pair. UJ = USD/JPY pair. For stock market watchers, esp those who intend to be day traders, you need to watch these two pairs as well, as their movement is correlated with the DJIA performance, europe's performance, and hence affects the STI performance. (double effect, because HSI reacts to DJIA as well.). Often from these two pairs, especially the UJ, you can tell how well the DJIA will perform in the night. Sometimes, with a better accuracy than DJIA futures. About half hr ago the EU broke below its longer term trendline support of 1.4534. Now hovering around there. So if this pair breaks down further, you can expect europe to open (has opened?) in the red. And since the UJ is hovering with bias for down, it implies the DJIA is likely down tonight. (methinks it's a tightrange closing 2 digit negative.) So the likely opening of the STI tomorrow is a negative bias. And in this way, traders, especially those specialising in the end-of-day/beginning-of-day trades, will set up their positions accordingly. 430pm take positions, 0900-0915am tomorrow lock in position. STI stocks are currently in a tight range. Which means warrants need to be scalped. |
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| 01-Sep-2008 22:14 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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agreed, livermore. leverage mainly has a bad press, not because the tool per se is bad, but because most people do not know how to utilise it to its best effects. more often than not, it attracts people who'll just speculate with the 2x, 3x of money; which only results in them getting busted and margin calls. but that's just bad money management. Did they have a plan? Did they have an exit strategy? What was their dollar-cost-average levels? Was it thought out? yes, losses theoretically are doubled (if you go 2x on margin), but gains too are theoretically doubled. the key is in proper money management. wongmx6, it depends. Most companies require their directors to declare their holdings and all transactions. A lot of the proper companies also have a lockup period: eg, no trading for 7 days, or even 6 mths. This is to prevent overtrading and insider trading. Some will also require you to declare holdings of your spouses and family, to really ensure fairness. Insider trading is when the person trades on price-sensitive news that is not yet known to the public. (though of course, as i've mentioned on other threads, it's difficult to prove.) Actually, a decent and proper company would frown on its directors trading its shares too often: for one thing, it is bad for the company image---the directors come across as gamblers or profiteers--for another, it sends to the public a message that its own directors do not believe in the company. So generally, for good companies, what you find is that when it dips, insiders will buy instead. this is to send a message of faith, that the directors believe in their company. And certainly you'll not find them dumping their stocks when the share price goes down. That's a publicity no-no. Smaller companies do that though, especially if their own directors are on margin and kena margin call. It's happened before; unwise usage of leverage. And as with cosco: where the directors trade so frequently: if you were an investor, would you trust such a company? The warning signs were there long ago already.
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| 01-Sep-2008 13:29 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yuppers, stupidfool. not necessary to trade everyday or frequently. it all depends on one's timeframe and aim.
so elfie's back from her hols. for those lkg for clues. update on local market as per STI charts below. Note that we're still in a range play with channel bias being down. Break of 2,835 for upward or 2,640 for renewed downward. o/w, it's as per the charts below. Vol is drying up, so traders need to be careful. Don't fish in a drying pond if possible. Not worth the risk. Note 2: do not try and predict the bottom. What is more pertinent to do is to wait for the signal. That'd be one doji (or better yet, a hammer with a long tail) plus 2 or 3 green candles consecutively, with increasing volume. That's the earliest sign of a turn. o/w, to treat all things as channel play still. cheers. 
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| 01-Sep-2008 11:32 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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i don't think the true character of another can ever be known, not unless both are perfectly honest: one in revealing himself/herself, the other in not having any conceptions or ideas about the *perfect* lover and dropping all expectations and images to see the other as he/she really is. but if perfection is impossible, then it stands to reason that it is impossible to know another person fully. ie, 'true character' can never be known. so what remains then is the negotiation of common ground. what masks you are willing to see, what masks you are willing to accept. if you ask me, love/attraction is overrated, and independence, underrated. |
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| 31-Aug-2008 13:30 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yuppers, singaporegal, good post. simple truths.
people rarely learn their lessons, do they, ipunter. that's the reason why 95% of traders have and will fail. You have to be emotionless; when humans are emotional beings. |
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| 22-Aug-2008 19:37 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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i think there are china ETFs here? not sure. ok, anyway, byebye peeps. elfie's off for her holidays!  meanwhile, if market moves and you're unsure, don't take any longterm position; better to stay lightfooted. volume is key; don't trust a rise on low vol. As ipunter will say, not having a position is also a position. cheers! |
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| 22-Aug-2008 15:47 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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zzz. at this stage, dont be tempted by any increase in px if it's not corresponded by increase in vol. nah, novicex. what i'm saying isn't my words, or even something new. it's what all traders know... trader88 pointed out rightly: a 50% loss => you need 100% to make back. it's all part of money management. which is the first step before you invest. Too many funds now just ask you to put in your money, and show you all the pretty graphs of increase, but they never talk about risk or stop losses or anything. |
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