ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Bullish cup with handle: probably completed, will most likely start shooting up.

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Be acreful, SAR might be completed forming a bullish cup with handle & will shoot upwards, saw my earlier chart posting.

richtan ( Date: 20-May-2009 16:59) Posted:

Good luck to u, but no regrets should it gap up or continue to shoot up tomoro.

cheongwee ( Date: 20-May-2009 16:35) Posted:

OK contra off...q to sell 1.45...wish me luck..

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Good luck to u, but no regrets should it gap up or continue to shoot up tomoro.

cheongwee ( Date: 20-May-2009 16:35) Posted:

OK contra off...q to sell 1.45...wish me luck..

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Hahaha... u want faster right, buy CAR, hehehehe....

cheongwee ( Date: 20-May-2009 16:31) Posted:

no really, maybe they are on another counter riding even better stock...

look at GAR..i bought this one yesterday..run faster than SAR..can SAR run faster pls..

richtan ( Date: 20-May-2009 16:16) Posted:

Congrats to those holding SAR

Those waiting for below $1.30 or below must be now mouth-salivating, drooling, hahahaha....

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Congrats to those holding SAR

Those waiting for below $1.30 or below must be now mouth-salivating, drooling, hahahaha....

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This is only my conjecture tat it is not a bear mkt rally, but who cares, I just trade day to day base on my chart interpretation.

cheongwee ( Date: 20-May-2009 11:22) Posted:

no i got to not agree with you, i thk this is a bear market rally, which will last some 6 mtn or longer with correction to dow 10000...

trillion dollar will cause high inflation, and worth stagflation if the fianancial are really sick, and i believe they are still very sick...and take mopre losses and take yrs to recover...

high inflation are also bad for stock market..high oil px..

imagine high oil px, with no economic or min growth....all stock will collapse..

deflation already happening, next i thk will be stagflation..the worse fear of everyone.

Ben does not scare high inflation and deflation with growth, he is more scare of stagflation.

richtan ( Date: 20-May-2009 11:09) Posted:

CW,

Rest assured Im not a single bit worried, I do believe DOW 10,000, & I m sure this is not a bear mkt rally, just imagine the trillions of money being printed & the stimlus prime-pumping by all the governments & low savings interest rate, all this money will flood back to equities for sure.

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I not only bot at 1.30, taking a gamble, hoping it will bounce from 15sma, I even bot more on Mon at 1.16 as I noticed it always bounced up from 25sma

cheongwee ( Date: 20-May-2009 10:58) Posted:

u told me u bought at 1.3...so make $ can ahahahah...do u still doubt abt 1.5 then 1.9 to 2.0....

your OCBC research is behing DMG...long before they already said 4.0

richtan ( Date: 20-May-2009 10:49) Posted:

Soory, I didn't buy Qianhu, so probably, u have to dance with laulan, hahaha..

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No, definitely no doubt.

I believe in the fundamentals of SAR.

My initially doubt was your friend making too optimistic prediction tat within a week, SAR will reach xxx (cant remember the figure), which is rather unrealistic to me & for sure, it didn't hit when the time is up.

But of course, nobody is 100% accurate, he may be right at times.

For sure, it will hit 1.90 & above, but when?, can't predict & I m not MFT, so no prediction from me.

cheongwee ( Date: 20-May-2009 10:58) Posted:

u told me u bought at 1.3...so make $ can ahahahah...do u still doubt abt 1.5 then 1.9 to 2.0....

your OCBC research is behing DMG...long before they already said 4.0

richtan ( Date: 20-May-2009 10:49) Posted:

Soory, I didn't buy Qianhu, so probably, u have to dance with laulan, hahaha..

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CW,

Rest assured Im not a single bit worried, I do believe DOW 10,000, & I m sure this is not a bear mkt rally, just imagine the trillions of money being printed & the stimlus prime-pumping by all the governments & low savings interest rate, all this money will flood back to equities for sure.

cheongwee ( Date: 20-May-2009 11:02) Posted:

Dont worry ,richtan....i still see dow 100000..sti 2600 to 2800...if we get there...my 1.9 maybe higher will be achieve easily...

when???..........by end september..DYODD

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Thanks for your sharing, but I only vested in gold.

Nothing wrong with silver but my preference is still gold, as to me gold is real money while silver is an industrial metal, of course it will also appreciate, but still I stick to my gold.

cheongwee ( Date: 20-May-2009 10:55) Posted:

to richtan and Laulan...2 to 3..mths back, i went to UOB..Bt Panjang Branch to buy silver( silver saving acc) at ard $10...

most of girl there at the counter know me well.. they know i have been buying since year back at ard 4 till nw..and i told them fact abt gold and silver as that day there was little customer so they were free, they said they also convince to buy,..as they know i bought alot...i told them abt DCA,,

and they told me, this type of acc , very few ppl open...i told them to faster open silver acc, because if the day come, they see long q to open silver saving acc, silver will be 100 already.( such is the mentality of the ppl , they will chase)..they look convine as i told them fact abt silver and also i put money where my mouth is.( i bought some 2310 oz)..they look convince...hope u all buy ..but to buy at 10,,,then wait sept.

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Soory, I didn't buy Qianhu, so probably, u have to dance with laulan, hahaha...

cheongwee ( Date: 20-May-2009 10:18) Posted:

richtan abd laulan..........I make call on Qianhu recently, and yesterday...did u all buy..

it is good guppy fish, but arowana selling at 10.5 to 11c...i bought..did u all buy at 12c yesterday.

if yuo all did ...let dance together...

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SAR running up.

Thanks also to those shortist doing short-covering

cheongwee ( Date: 20-May-2009 10:30) Posted:

ok, today i try my luck at SAR again...q at 128..and i got it...maybe it is a nice number..1...2...8

sound good..and it is in the money...although it is only 25 lots..

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richtan ( Date: 19-May-2009 14:32) Posted:

CHHX looks like forming the handle of a cup, expect it to shoot up once the handle is formed. Cheers.

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It is PTT mandatory offer but u are not obligated to sell to them, only idiots will sell to them, the wise will sell unless the current price is 0.80 or below.

zoros88 ( Date: 20-May-2009 04:22) Posted:

Hi all

Just received the PTT's offer document to acquire Straits Asia. Is this a mandatory offer and are we as minority shareholders compel to accept the offer and cash out? Just thought that the offer price of about $0.90 is so much lower than the current market price of $1.30.

Thks for e advice.

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Wow!!! Just cant imagine, OCBC Research put Fair Value at $4.66, yet there are forumers tat think it is only worth dirt-cheap at below $1.

Most probably, if there is another crisis of a much bigger magnitude than the financial crisis or something worse than swine flu.

But I do hope, for the sake of humanity, such crisis does not occur.

richtan ( Date: 20-May-2009 00:01) Posted:

From OCBC-Research

Coal play Growing energy demands. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for energy is expected to grow by more than half over the next 25 years. In the near term, energy needs will be driven by transport and power generation. Limited supply, combined with pressing demand, will continue to support energy prices. Riding on the back of overflowing demand, Straits Asia Resources (SAR) has been enjoying robust demand and healthy prices for its coal output.

More upside, limited downside. SAR is sheltered from volatile coal prices in the spot market as its prices are locked in six to 12 months forward. Contracts for 2008 delivery have been fully priced at US$70.5/ton, while the initial 53% of its 2009 contracts have been priced at US$110/ton, implying a hefty 56% increase in selling prices. The company believes that it has more room for upward revision of prices. Nevertheless, we have assumed a conservative blended price of US$90/ton for FY09, and believe that downside risk to our forecast is limited. Furthermore, even in the worst case scenario that coal prices drop 65% to US$37, SAR will still be able to break even given its low cost of production.

Taking a larger slice of the pie. SAR’s coal mines in Indonesia’s Sebuku Island and South Kalimantan produced 3.4m tonnes (Mt) of coal in 2007 and they are on track to more than double the total output to over 9Mt in 2008, all of which has been fully priced and committed. Recognising the insatiable global appetite for energy, the group is acquiring coal interests in Madagascar and Brunei. This expansion will not only increase its coal reserves substantially, it will also lift SAR to a global platform with a geographically-diversified portfolio of assets.

Supply lagging demand. Thermal coal remains one of the cheapest forms of energy - unit prices are approximately one-third the cost of crude oil. Coal’s cost appeal will continue to attract users from developing nations such as China and India. With demand expected to outpace supply, SAR will continue to enjoy strong pricing and bargaining power. We like SAR for its low production cost, order book visibility and pre-determined pricing which limits downside risk. Using a DCF valuation with 11% WACC and 1% terminal growth rate, we derive a fair value estimate of S$4.66. We maintain our BUY rating on SAR.

richtan ( Date: 19-May-2009 23:57) Posted:

From OCBC-Research

Coal play

Growing energy demands. According to the International Energy Agency,
global demand for energy is expected to grow by more than half over the
next 25 years. In the near term, energy needs will be driven by transport
and power generation. Limited supply, combined with pressing demand,
will continue to support energy prices. Riding on the back of overflowing
demand, Straits Asia Resources (SAR) has been enjoying robust demand
and healthy prices for its coal output.

More upside, limited downside. SAR is sheltered from volatile coal
prices in the spot market as its prices are locked in six to 12 months
forward. Contracts for 2008 delivery have been fully priced at US$70.5/ton,
while the initial 53% of its 2009 contracts have been priced at US$110/ton,
implying a hefty 56% increase in selling prices. The company believes
that it has more room for upward revision of prices. Nevertheless, we have
assumed a conservative blended price of US$90/ton for FY09, and believe
that downside risk to our forecast is limited. Furthermore, even in the worst
case scenario that coal prices drop 65% to US$37, SAR will still be able
to break even given its low cost of production.

Taking a larger slice of the pie. SAR’s coal mines in Indonesia’s Sebuku
Island and South Kalimantan produced 3.4m tonnes (Mt) of coal in 2007
and they are on track to more than double the total output to over 9Mt in
2008, all of which has been fully priced and committed. Recognising the
insatiable global appetite for energy, the group is acquiring coal interests
in Madagascar and Brunei. This expansion will not only increase its coal
reserves substantially, it will also lift SAR to a global platform with a
geographically-diversified portfolio of assets.

Supply lagging demand. Thermal coal remains one of the cheapest
forms of energy - unit prices are approximately one-third the cost of crude
oil. Coal’s cost appeal will continue to attract users from developing nations
such as China and India. With demand expected to outpace supply, SAR
will continue to enjoy strong pricing and bargaining power. We like SAR for
its low production cost, order book visibility and pre-determined pricing
which limits downside risk. Using a DCF valuation with 11% WACC and
1% terminal growth rate, we derive a fair value estimate of S$4.66. We
maintain our BUY rating on SAR.

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From OCBC-Research

Coal play Growing energy demands. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for energy is expected to grow by more than half over the next 25 years. In the near term, energy needs will be driven by transport and power generation. Limited supply, combined with pressing demand, will continue to support energy prices. Riding on the back of overflowing demand, Straits Asia Resources (SAR) has been enjoying robust demand and healthy prices for its coal output.

More upside, limited downside. SAR is sheltered from volatile coal prices in the spot market as its prices are locked in six to 12 months forward. Contracts for 2008 delivery have been fully priced at US$70.5/ton, while the initial 53% of its 2009 contracts have been priced at US$110/ton, implying a hefty 56% increase in selling prices. The company believes that it has more room for upward revision of prices. Nevertheless, we have assumed a conservative blended price of US$90/ton for FY09, and believe that downside risk to our forecast is limited. Furthermore, even in the worst case scenario that coal prices drop 65% to US$37, SAR will still be able to break even given its low cost of production.

Taking a larger slice of the pie. SAR’s coal mines in Indonesia’s Sebuku Island and South Kalimantan produced 3.4m tonnes (Mt) of coal in 2007 and they are on track to more than double the total output to over 9Mt in 2008, all of which has been fully priced and committed. Recognising the insatiable global appetite for energy, the group is acquiring coal interests in Madagascar and Brunei. This expansion will not only increase its coal reserves substantially, it will also lift SAR to a global platform with a geographically-diversified portfolio of assets.

Supply lagging demand. Thermal coal remains one of the cheapest forms of energy - unit prices are approximately one-third the cost of crude oil. Coal’s cost appeal will continue to attract users from developing nations such as China and India. With demand expected to outpace supply, SAR will continue to enjoy strong pricing and bargaining power. We like SAR for its low production cost, order book visibility and pre-determined pricing which limits downside risk. Using a DCF valuation with 11% WACC and 1% terminal growth rate, we derive a fair value estimate of S$4.66. We maintain our BUY rating on SAR.

richtan ( Date: 19-May-2009 23:57) Posted:

From OCBC-Research

Coal play

Growing energy demands. According to the International Energy Agency,
global demand for energy is expected to grow by more than half over the
next 25 years. In the near term, energy needs will be driven by transport
and power generation. Limited supply, combined with pressing demand,
will continue to support energy prices. Riding on the back of overflowing
demand, Straits Asia Resources (SAR) has been enjoying robust demand
and healthy prices for its coal output.

More upside, limited downside. SAR is sheltered from volatile coal
prices in the spot market as its prices are locked in six to 12 months
forward. Contracts for 2008 delivery have been fully priced at US$70.5/ton,
while the initial 53% of its 2009 contracts have been priced at US$110/ton,
implying a hefty 56% increase in selling prices. The company believes
that it has more room for upward revision of prices. Nevertheless, we have
assumed a conservative blended price of US$90/ton for FY09, and believe
that downside risk to our forecast is limited. Furthermore, even in the worst
case scenario that coal prices drop 65% to US$37, SAR will still be able
to break even given its low cost of production.

Taking a larger slice of the pie. SAR’s coal mines in Indonesia’s Sebuku
Island and South Kalimantan produced 3.4m tonnes (Mt) of coal in 2007
and they are on track to more than double the total output to over 9Mt in
2008, all of which has been fully priced and committed. Recognising the
insatiable global appetite for energy, the group is acquiring coal interests
in Madagascar and Brunei. This expansion will not only increase its coal
reserves substantially, it will also lift SAR to a global platform with a
geographically-diversified portfolio of assets.

Supply lagging demand. Thermal coal remains one of the cheapest
forms of energy - unit prices are approximately one-third the cost of crude
oil. Coal’s cost appeal will continue to attract users from developing nations
such as China and India. With demand expected to outpace supply, SAR
will continue to enjoy strong pricing and bargaining power. We like SAR for
its low production cost, order book visibility and pre-determined pricing
which limits downside risk. Using a DCF valuation with 11% WACC and
1% terminal growth rate, we derive a fair value estimate of S$4.66. We
maintain our BUY rating on SAR.

x 0

From OCBC-Research

Coal play

Growing energy demands. According to the International Energy Agency,
global demand for energy is expected to grow by more than half over the
next 25 years. In the near term, energy needs will be driven by transport
and power generation. Limited supply, combined with pressing demand,
will continue to support energy prices. Riding on the back of overflowing
demand, Straits Asia Resources (SAR) has been enjoying robust demand
and healthy prices for its coal output.

More upside, limited downside. SAR is sheltered from volatile coal
prices in the spot market as its prices are locked in six to 12 months
forward. Contracts for 2008 delivery have been fully priced at US$70.5/ton,
while the initial 53% of its 2009 contracts have been priced at US$110/ton,
implying a hefty 56% increase in selling prices. The company believes
that it has more room for upward revision of prices. Nevertheless, we have
assumed a conservative blended price of US$90/ton for FY09, and believe
that downside risk to our forecast is limited. Furthermore, even in the worst
case scenario that coal prices drop 65% to US$37, SAR will still be able
to break even given its low cost of production.

Taking a larger slice of the pie. SAR’s coal mines in Indonesia’s Sebuku
Island and South Kalimantan produced 3.4m tonnes (Mt) of coal in 2007
and they are on track to more than double the total output to over 9Mt in
2008, all of which has been fully priced and committed. Recognising the
insatiable global appetite for energy, the group is acquiring coal interests
in Madagascar and Brunei. This expansion will not only increase its coal
reserves substantially, it will also lift SAR to a global platform with a
geographically-diversified portfolio of assets.

Supply lagging demand. Thermal coal remains one of the cheapest
forms of energy - unit prices are approximately one-third the cost of crude
oil. Coal’s cost appeal will continue to attract users from developing nations
such as China and India. With demand expected to outpace supply, SAR
will continue to enjoy strong pricing and bargaining power. We like SAR for
its low production cost, order book visibility and pre-determined pricing
which limits downside risk. Using a DCF valuation with 11% WACC and
1% terminal growth rate, we derive a fair value estimate of S$4.66. We
maintain our BUY rating on SAR.

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Hahaha... I wished u good luck & not missed the coal-fired rocket.

Of course, i too would be happy if it really can come down, so I can accumulate some more.

The moment, u said "I think", tats the emotional side taking control of u, the nemesis of TA.

Remember, a true TA practitioner is non-emotional, but mechanical, act on wat the charts tell them.

Wat u think is high can also get higher, wat u think is low can also get lower, so no point being emotional, just act & trade according to wat the chart tells u & set cut-loss point.

Always remember "Cut-losses short, let profits run with trailing stops"

dealer0168 ( Date: 19-May-2009 22:28) Posted:

Haha..... emm actually Mr Rich Tan is right. Just remember to cut lost when required.

But just to highlight commodities stock will only rally well in good economy. N in current economy there are many

doubts, and we will be seeing See-Saw type of stock price for this share.

So what we can do is sell when the price is high & buy when it is low. But just to share my view, emm

i still think $1.30 is still quite high. So i may enter when price is lower instead.......Cheers.

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The reason is mentioned below, read & decipher lah:

Summary: Thailand’s PTT International (PTT) has made a S$0.807/share cash offer for Straits Asia Resources Ltd (SAR). The offer is a result of it purchasing Straits Resources Ltd’s 47.1% stake in SAR as part of a strategic alliance. The offer is priced 4.5% below SAR’s last transacted price and 7.9% below its six-month VWAP, and values SAR at a modest 2.2x FY09F PER and 1.2x FY09F NAV. This undervalues SAR’s strong fundamentals and earnings growth potential, in our view. We believe that the takeover offer is largely procedural since PTT has articulated its intention to retain SAR’s listing status on the SGX-ST. We do not expect investors accept the offer, especially given SAR’s generous dividends and robust prospects. We maintain our BUY rating and S$1.15 fair value estimate on the stock. SAR will be appointing an independent financial adviser to provide a recommendation in connection with the offer.

Lacklustre takeover offer. PTT International (PTT), one of Thailand’s largest energy companies, has made a mandatory takeover offer for Straits Asia Resources Ltd (SAR) at S$0.807/share. The offer is a result of it purchasing Straits Resources Ltd’s 47.1% stake in SAR as part of a strategic alliance. The offer price was derived from SAR’s 20-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) prior to 20 Mar 09, but falls 4.5% below SAR’s last transacted price and 7.9% short of its six-month VWAP. In addition, it values SAR at a modest 2.2x FY09F PER and 1.2x FY09F NAV – far lower than the 11x PER price tag that Chinalco and Alcoa forked out for their stake in mining company Rio Tinto just a year ago. We are of the view that the takeover offer undervalues SAR, and do not expect investors to accept the offer. SAR will be appointing an independent financial adviser to provide a recommendation in connection with the offer.

No intention to privatise SAR. PTT’s takeover offer for SAR appears to be a procedural obligation as a result of it crossing the 30% ownership level. It has articulated its intention to retain SAR’s listing status on the SGX-ST, and added that it currently has no plans to introduce any major changes to SAR’s business, redeploy its fixed assets, or discontinue the employment of its employees. As such, the takeover offer will probably result in a change of SAR’s effective ownership with no major changes to the group’s strategy or management.

Good dividends and earnings prospects provide little incentive to accept offer. SAR’s shareholders may reap better returns in the long term by holding on to their shares, given the group’s generous dividends and robust outlook. SAR’s dividends yielded a generous 11.5% return in FY08, and we expect FY09 yield to increase to 17.8% on the back of higher earnings. Earnings are expected to more than double in FY09 thanks to higher coal prices secured during the commodity boom in 2008.

Sound fundamentals, maintain BUY. PTT’s takeover offer puts an end to months of speculation over SAR’s privatisation. It also rules out any acquisition by Noble Group Ltd (previously reported to be one of the interested bidders) or other strategic investors in the near term. We maintain our BUY rating and S$1.15 fair value estimate for SAR and do not expect PPT to raise its offer price. As for Noble, our BUY rating and S$1.33 fair value estimate remains intact.

dealer0168 ( Date: 19-May-2009 19:00) Posted:

There must be reason why offer price for this share is still at $0.807/ share. Guess maybe straitsAsia will hit back at around 80 cents...... Emm maybe let wait patiently. Cheers.

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Alemak, why waste time debating till the cows come home, just trade base on your chart interpretation lah, try master the art of TA lah, but hor, remember, nothing is 100%, not even charts interpretation, tats why must set cut--loss points.

cheongwee ( Date: 19-May-2009 20:03) Posted:

u are right...what do u thk it the reason?

then what do you thk is the market pricing this at 1.3??

so if PPT dont buy does this means the counter are fundamental lousy.

pray tell me, i am learning.

dealer0168 ( Date: 19-May-2009 19:00) Posted:

There must be reason why offer price for this share is still at $0.807/ share. Guess maybe straitsAsia will hit back at around 80 cents...... Emm maybe let wait patiently. Cheers.