Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 03-Jan-2007 19:15 |
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hi singaporegal...abt market manipulation: yeah, interesting. esp the shortselling. like we have rumors that insiders shorted the thai market on that flipflop day, and then bought back long. if so they'd have made a killing... actually, my question is, how do you tell when the bull will stop running? |
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| 02-Jan-2007 23:24 |
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heh heh, giantlow, relax lah...don't count your chickens before they're hatched, even if they're in the queue already. hahha. keep cool man.... singaporegal, yeah, concur. prices tend to fluctuate in the morning and are more even in the afternoon. if you see the STI, the first opening tends to be a major movement, after which it's more regular. (by implication, high beta stocks will follow the same pattern) It's a bit of a bait actually...funds get to queue earlier, so it appears as though prices shoot up & high demand, which panics retail investors to chase the stocks up (your kneejerk reaction)....after which funds can nicely shed off excess stocks--a bit of contra for pocket money, while keeping the main holdings safe. vice versa holds true too, for panicked selling. the other fluctuation tends to happen at 4.45 pm onwards. hehe. ready for the market tomorrow? :) most counters look too overbought to be bought tho. sian....looking more to sell than buy this first week. |
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| 02-Jan-2007 17:19 |
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keke...elf queens just lie around in bowers of flowers and get fed dew and grapes (hmm...not a bad idea hehe)...but a bit too boring for this hyper little thing here. hmm..would rather be an archer elf. *ooh legolas....* hehe. ed88ks (how do you pronounce this?)...hm...difficult to make a call for the market tomorrow...am expecting a mixed market. some counters have ran before they were expected to, so would expect some funds to offload some counters asap and buy into other laggards. the thai situation is an unknown constant too. watch the 830am pre-market opening, the vols lined up for buy/sell: that will give you your clue as to up or down. A lot depends on the GDP data being released tomorrow too. tho, the moment the market hits 3k, i say, run. |
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| 02-Jan-2007 16:17 |
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hahaha why not?? :P hmm...gotta come up with a more evocative title tho...and then we're on our way to the Mountain of Profit! heyhey, singaporegal can be our Arwen! ;) hehe. bwah haha!! anyone else wants in on the journey? haha. :P |
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| 02-Jan-2007 16:08 |
Others
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owning gold value
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hi jinsenlim....when you say 'hold the gold price', do you mean you are buying shares of a gold co/fund like streetracks, or non-allocated gold? If it's the former, you can buy and sell as any other normal shares. Take note tho that just because gold prices go up, doesn't mean that a gold fund's price will always see a proportionate increase. non-allocated gold on the other hand means you buy the cert to the gold, and a bank/other stores the actual gold for you. You need to pay before you receive the gold cert. You'll also have to pay for storage of the gold. The danger here is that you need to find a reputable gold co that isn't going to swallow up your investment, or over-allocate it. the alternative to the two above is allocated gold. i.e., you actually own the physical gold. In which case, you need to buy of purity at least 22 karats; it's worthless otherwise in the trading market. The most easily traded bullion products are gold coins like the canadian maple, american eagle and south african krugerrands, or gold bars (various weights available). These will be sold by purity and weight (measured in troy ounces--dif from normal ounce--usually quoted in US$.). Take note that unless you're selling a large amt, most places won't buy small quantities. go to www.kitco.com. there's a wealth of info available there, as well as gold funds tracked in other countries--if you're using an online broker with access to these countries, you can trade in their shares like a normal co as per their country rulings. website's a bit messy tho. btw, pls take care to factor in the declining US$; it might erode any potential gains you have when you do the currency conversion. good luck! :) |
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| 02-Jan-2007 11:31 |
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hello, yep, hope i can stay in SJ too; have learnt a lot from the people here, esp you, singaporegal. :) hehe. does this mean we could actually be colleagues?? heh heh. job-wise...hm..it does have its perks, but i'm also going in knowing that the slightest miscalculation on my part could very well lead to the deaths of tens, hundreds, or more. so it's a heavy responsibility. just hope i meet up to expectations. on a lighter note: eheh, giantlow, just realised that both of us have taken mythological creatures in our nicks. hehe, wonder if there are any sprites, gnomes, fairies, hobbits etc out there? can form a Fellowship!! whee.... heehee. :P |
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| 01-Jan-2007 16:37 |
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heyho, sorry to disappoint, but nope. Was selected for another thing. classified, so can't say much. has to do with global events tho, and muah haha, i'll not be on the cpf scheme anymore. i'll actually get a pension if i stick with them til retirement. they're so secretive. it's gonna be immensely interesting. hehe. hope i still have time for the market man. sigh. |
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| 01-Jan-2007 12:03 |
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hey pikachu....need to clarify something first: I _used_ to work for one of the big boys--an international fund mgmt co--but not anymore. the govt found me. hehe. and yea, stock manipulation is real. if you want to do TA, stick with the blue chips (and such stocks) with constant vols, less likely to get caught short. Offhand i can name you three counters played in the last few months by institutions and rich private investors: tat hong, hongguo, enviro-hub. Take a look at their charts, the vol spikes, you'll know what i mean. |
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| 01-Jan-2007 02:39 |
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The Posts that iPunter is looking for..
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hm...rogue_trader, never read your self-intros before, but i guess i can relate to that determination and hunger to do well for yourself, coming from a complicated background myself (don't even ask man..). But hey, never let bitterness or envy get you down, yea? Afterall, if we come from the streets, then, like wildflowers or weeds, we'll survive anywhere, any way. :) So keep positive yea, i believe you'll do well in anything you choose. :))) |
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| 01-Jan-2007 01:58 |
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hihi one and all, happy new year! gonna go sleep off the alcohol after this hehe. rickytan, no prob. just ask away, it's the only way to learn. i've asked some very stupid qns in my own time too, and i'm still asking them. :) ehhhh....misters bunbun (bunnyboy! heehee), zhuge_liang, giantlow & tanglinboy.... thorny guys, or horny guys? :P focus on the market lah! sheesh. haha. cheers to all! ;) |
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| 31-Dec-2006 17:26 |
Ho Bee Land
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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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hullo...what i meant by 'before sept' is because, if you look at the current market, it is (in my opinion), unjustifiably high already. Which is fine if global trends support it, but current global climate is extremely unstable: there's the timebomb of Iraq, the US presidential elections in 2008 (which neither the republicans nor the democrats want to win, since whoever wins needs to clean up the hellhole Bush made of Iraq), Nigerian elections in April 2007 (africa's largest oil producer), bird flu, declining US dollar, skittish russian investors, etc etc. Plus, markets tend to move in quarter cycles (FYE march, june, sept, dec): so if you assume a wavelike pattern, you'd expect STI up before march, down june, final up in sept. not to mention that investors, like gamblers, are a superstitious bunch. the no: 7 and october spooks them. (New york crash, oct 1929. asian financial crisis, 1997 etc). In a local context, really, how long can the exuberance over casinos and rising property prices last? plus, those investors who made loads of cash would want to lock in profits already, esp if they're switching to buying actual land. so by my guesstimate, i don't think the STI can continue its bull run (sorry for being such a little bear hehe) indefinitely. Personally, i'm expecting to complete all my trading positions by sept, and the rest will be long term stocks that i'm holding as investment. but we'll see how. just follow the trend man! |
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| 31-Dec-2006 17:12 |
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heyho...rickytan...eh....elf's a she not a he...don't make me go for gender reassignment surgery leh. haha. :P aiyah, no such thing as stupid questions. learning's a two-way process. From the mouths of babes come words of wisdom. Even if the questions are basic, it forces those of us who think we know what we are doing to re-examine our foundational knowledge, and that can only be good. :) as for your qn: depends on what method you're comfortable with. If you're versed in the A/D chart, then, you don't have to look at the time/sales of vol/price, since A/D takes that into acct mathematically. But if you want added security or if the charts appear confusing, it's a more direct and obvious indication of buy/sell. |
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| 31-Dec-2006 13:46 |
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heyhey singaporegal, happy new year to you too! so glad to have you here in this forum. hehe i think females need a stronger presence here...the boys tend to get rowdy, don't they. *bemused* punter, i wouldn't exactly call myself selfless. But i know what it's like to be a newbie in the dark, and everyone either ignores you or treats you with contempt. And well, i don't see the need to pass on such behaviour. Plus, I've also seen the best. Ppl with loads of cash, status and experience, who'd actually listen to you and help you along. Learning is a two-way process. I'm simply paying it forward. Plus, it isn't exactly costing me anything. hehe. btw, everyone, pls note. Everything i say is strictly from my view. I do NOT claim to be an expert and i do NOT guarantee profit if you follow everything i say. caveat emptor. it's the nature of the market. :) |
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| 31-Dec-2006 13:30 |
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hi pikachu, i wouldn't dare claim to be experienced, since i'll not make the mistake of underestimating the market. but i guess i'm lucky in that i got the chance to learn from the best in both retail and institutional mgmt, at a time when i was still too young to trade. ie, lucky enough to learn the stock market purely for its own sake, with no greed/money vested in. It affords a certain rational detachment. in reply to your qn (pls excuse, i cannot name actual companies or ppl 'cos of the confidentality clause we all have to sign upon entrance/exit--but rest assured, all i say is from firsthand fact): yes, fund mgmrs do this often. like, daily, in fact. Whether over a day or a few days depends on the nature of the counter: blue chips like singtel are normally bought over a few days, while pennies will be manipulated in a single day. some of them are even day trades. And yea, as i said somewhere else before, it is not just one co buying. they like to call their friends from other cos, and all buy or sell together. it generates buzz in the market so that others will buy what they are selling, or vice versa. Being professional 'hunters' tho, all in all, they prefer movement as fast as possible. but companies don't always get along as friends; some will try to outsmart their competitors. that's when it gets interesting. hehe. One will mop up whatever the other is selling, and in this way, they control the market til someone gives up. it's showhand poker. and oh yea, they don't buy at just one price. they'll space it out within a small price range (what singaporegal astutely observed as large vol with small price change)--again, this is to avoid alarming the market. It's what i call 'white noise'. |
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| 31-Dec-2006 13:14 |
Ho Bee Land
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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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heya, no prob, all of you. :) hohokit, wish you luck in all your trades! btw, would expect the market to correct the moment it hits 3k, so for beginners, pls don't get caught up in the current exuberance. might be good to exit as soon as the charts start changing. tanglinboy, hehe, what's gone is gone; no point looking at ho bee anymore lah. at 1.45 its upside is limited. (Note of warning to all vested, it has almost hit its FA target already, one year in advance.) there are others to watch now. hehe. |
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| 31-Dec-2006 03:15 |
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hi rickytan....generally, the term 'big boys' will refer to people who have large enough sums of money to manipulate a counter--by manipulation we mean a significant price change--so these 'big boys' can be anyone from overseas fund managers, to banks, to private investors, to company directors themselves. penny stocks tend to be very liable to manipulation as they are cheap(by all the categories above, esp the last two), which is why most canny individual investors will actually avoid them: true, you can easily double your profit, but it can easily turn the other way too. it's a risk/reward ratio you need to choose to be comfortable with. as per singaporegal's words, vol is your best indicator of manipulation, esp sudden surges (take a look at hongguo's charts). If Ac/Di is still unclear to you, then a clearer indication might be vol itself: A standard trick which fund managers use: they'll buy a large vol up, and sell a few down so as to avoid major price changes all of a sudden and alarming the general market before they've made their purchase/sale. e.g, what you'll read in vol is something like 100000 buy up 2000 sell down 500000 buy up 1000 sell down etc... this is a clear indication of manipulation, esp if the trades are spaced just minutes apart. hope this helps. :) |
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| 31-Dec-2006 02:59 |
Ho Bee Land
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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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haha yes tanglinboy, ho bee's surge was hugely enjoyable. but try being out of the country and having the price surge man. missed the sell off. >~< tho as the punter says, not to worry, another counter will always have its turn. it's the nature of the market. :) hohokit, i'd expect the market to be very fluid and volatile in 2007, what with the current instability in the world. Move fast, and try to hit your profit target by end sept. Current climate is way too uncertain. |
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| 31-Dec-2006 02:53 |
Ho Bee Land
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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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hey...i've only been gone a short while...since when did the forum degenerate into this? :( hehe...this elf quotes romeo and juliet: "a rose by any other name would smell as sweet...."--really, does it matter what others call you, as long as you know what you are doing and your purpose in the stock market, which is to turn a profit? I mean, day trader, investor, punter, gambler etc, these are all just labels. Let's look beyond that. The bottom line is only one thing: profit. And as i said once, there are lots of ways to make a profit. The important thing for each investor is to know his/her own weaknesses and strengths, and adopt a suitable strat accordingly. e.g., singaporegal and ipunter use TA almost purely, which necessarily means they have to move fast, and their stocks have to be of a certain min price in order to be more accurate. Whereas i (for instance) use a very odd blend of TA+FA, which means i can pick up cheaper stocks, but also that i prob hold for a longer period. No one method's superior, it's just what realistically suits your needs and temperament, that's all. let's have a modicum of grace and agree to disagree, yeah? :) |
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| 29-Dec-2006 17:46 |
Ho Bee Land
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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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*grin*, punter, you must be happy now. haha. elf vested in ho bee and allco too. ;) here's to a happy new year man! charts not loaded yet, but will expect ho bee to go up 3rd jan and thereafter sell off. |
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| 28-Dec-2006 00:54 |
Wing Tai
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Wing Tai
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heya, yep punter, noticed vol was low so didn't really trust a pure TA call on it. have done my tarot like a good little girl *haha*; all positions vested for the new year already, am closing my books as will be away til 31st. ok all, be good, keep your money safe and happy new year in advance! :) |
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