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Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Probably Climbed on Tax Credit

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By Shobhana Chandra

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of U.S. previously owned homes rose in May to the highest level in six months as buyers rushed to beat a June tax-credit deadline, economists said before a report today.

Purchases of existing houses, which are tabulated when a contract closes, increased 6 percent to a 6.12 million annual rate, according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. To receive a government incentive worth as much as $8,000, buyers must have signed contracts by the end of April and need to complete deals by the end of this month.

Credit-induced gyrations will make the underlying health of the market difficult to determine over the next couple of months. A slump in builder shares since early May signals investors are concerned the damage caused by the end of government stimulus, mounting foreclosures and unemployment will exceed the benefits of lower mortgage rates.

“There are still a lot of headwinds as we’re making this important transition,” Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. “The real key in all this will be the labor market. You’re not going to see a sustainable housing recovery without job growth.”

The report from the National Association of Realtors is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Economists’ estimates ranged from 5.2 million to 6.5 million after a 5.77 million rate in April.

Demand last exceeded May’s projected level in November, the month the tax break was first due to expire, when sales reached an almost three-year high 6.49 million pace. The smaller jump last month shows the incentive lost power after being extended.

Fed Outlook

Federal Reserve policy makers, who begin a two-day meeting today, are forecast to commit to keeping interest rates near zero to help wean the world’s largest economy off government stimulus. The hazard posed by the European debt crisis, joblessness and a lack of inflation add to the reasons why central bankers will focus on sustaining the U.S. rebound.

Industry reports signal residential real estate is slowing. Housing starts last month dropped by the most since March 2009, and building permits, a sign of future construction, fell to a one-year low, data from the Commerce Department showed. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index for June fell by the most since November 2008.

The number of mortgage applications filed to purchase houses dropped this month to the lowest level since 1997, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Builder Shares

The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilder Index, which includes Toll Brothers Inc. and Lennar Corp., has dropped 27 percent since reaching a 19-month high on May 3. The broader S&P 500 Index is down 8.6 percent from April 23’s 19-month peak.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the largest homebuilder in New Jersey, said orders fell 17 percent in the quarter ended April 30 from a year earlier, and contract signings slowed in May, indicating the tax credit helped pull some sales forward.

“The expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit, the lack of job growth and a potential increase in foreclosures all pose risks to a housing-industry recovery,” Ara K. Hovnanian, chief executive officer, said in a June 2 statement.

Senator Harry Reid, a Democrat from Nevada, this month proposed extending the tax credit’s closing deadline from June 30 to Sept. 30 amid concern that a rush of buyers created too big a backlog for builders to complete projects in time. Senate Democrats on June 17 failed to get the 60 votes needed to move forward with the legislation that includes the proposal.

Slump Looms

The window of opportunity for the tax credit has already passed for purchases of new houses, which are tabulated at contract signings and are considered a timelier barometer of the market. A Commerce Department report tomorrow will show new home sales plunged 21 percent to a 400,000 annual pace last month, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed.

Existing homes account for about 90 percent of the market.

Builders are being hurt by competition from foreclosed properties that are depressing property values. Foreclosures jumped to a record for the second consecutive month in May as lenders stepped up property seizures, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based data seller.

Cheaper borrowing costs are helping mitigate the damage. The average rate on a fixed 30-year mortgage was 4.75 percent last week, just shy of the record-low 4.71 percent reached in early December, according to data from Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance company being supported by the U.S. government.

                        Bloomberg Survey

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21-Jun-2010 16:38

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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x 0

i chose to sit next to them, i won too! but, not that sport cars . I wont be surprised, the sport car might be won buy an indian nationality. kekeke!

freshmind ( Date: 21-Jun-2010 16:18) Posted:

Haha, few Indians win, only than can lure the whole Indians from the village will jump in Smiley

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21-Jun-2010 16:14

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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x 0

hi Hulumus, long time never post? Go banks there and keep on laughing izzit? hahahha!

your buying on dip paid off.

Hulumas ( Date: 21-Jun-2010 15:53) Posted:

SSE >6,000 and STI >3,800, soon!

niuyear ( Date: 21-Jun-2010 15:34) Posted:

i second that. :

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21-Jun-2010 15:56

Ying Li Intl / Ying Li

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x 0

Ans : This tells me that those who didnt buy when STI at its low, missing the boats to sell.

But, like everyone believes, maket never closes it door, there is still chance to buy low again when STI dips to 2600 - 2400.

tanstg ( Date: 21-Jun-2010 14:22) Posted:

If you noticed, in fact almost every counters rebound.....close to 400 counters rises. Think again....what does this tells you.

wishbone ( Date: 21-Jun-2010 11:45) Posted:

Ying Li is surging higher and higher.

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21-Jun-2010 15:53

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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x 0

lately, seen indian nationality appearing more and more at caisno (RWS). Got one lady super lucky keep winning. Another guy also keep winning. hahahha! May be , genting trying to lure them to casino more often.

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21-Jun-2010 15:34

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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x 0

i second that. :)

alooloo ( Date: 21-Jun-2010 15:27) Posted:

Good job / good call...

victorf ( Date: 21-Jun-2010 15:11) Posted:

laughing to the bank now since we reverse our position to a "Buy On Dip" on 25th/26th May 2010 from "Sell Into Strength" on Feb/March 2010...today volume with upside bodes well for STI for this week....good luck :)

NO HINDSIGHT! NO AMIBIGUITY IN CALL! AND REMEMBER MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT!!!

26-May-2010 14:59	Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors Go to Message
x 0 x 0	suggest to "buy on dip"....there will not be another big selloff in the short term....lots of stocks shown short term bottoming signs....missed the chance to buy these few days may mean miss the short term bottom (or even mid term bottom)....good luck :)

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21-Jun-2010 14:47

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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x 0

why it is not the other way round ? as in some ppl sold at low price, and now buying at high price. :)

freshmind ( Date: 21-Jun-2010 14:34) Posted:

Ppl always keep repeat the same mistake - Buy High, Sell Low. If we miss the boat, better don't blindly jump in or will jump into the sea. Wait for the next boat or else will be scarified when the market bursts.

alexchia01 ( Date: 21-Jun-2010 12:59) Posted:

If you want to Buy Genting Sp, you should have brought it in May.

Surprising that Genting Sp actually performs pretty well in May, when the entire market was falling.

Now, it's a too late to Buy this counter.

This is just my personal view. You invest at your own risk.

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21-Jun-2010 14:40

Keppel / keppel Corp

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x 0

Yes, $9.00... may be can poke thru abit . Beautiful!

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21-Jun-2010 14:20

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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x 0

wouldnt you think the rally will last for a while and push the asian stocks into a new high? wont be so far become shark's food lar....

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21-Jun-2010 13:02

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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x 0

The real growth of company comes from new customers, new businesses etc. Is this happening in our Casino businesses? yes.

Also, the 2 new casnios in singapore has opened up new opportunites to those workers who were being laid-off .

We are not at the biggest threat like 2008/2009.

P/s - Any businesses can face upside or downside, so as buying of stocks in other peoples' companies of whom, we may not even know. :)

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18-Jun-2010 18:03

Armstrong / woke up !

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x 0

Now target price is up another bid from o.55 to o.56. :)

18 June 2010
OUTPERFORM Maintained Armstrong Industrial S$0.43 Target: S$0.56
Forging ahead with auto business
Technology ComponentsMkt.Cap: S$221m/US$159m
SINGAPORE
ARMS SP / ARMS.SI Jonathan Ng +65 6210 8650 – jonathan.ng@cimb.com
Auto cruising
Business still brisk; maintain Outperform and target price.
Guangzhou plant earlier this week and came away positive on the progress of its
automotive components business in China. We leave our FY10-12 profit forecasts
unchanged, as well as our target price of S$0.555, still based on 9x CY11 P/E, at a
slight discount to its 5-year historical average to be conservative. We see stock
catalysts from: 1) continuous healthy quarterly earnings; 2) positive newsflow on the
HDD and automotive sectors; and 3) possible pleasant surprises in dividend
payments.We visited Armstrong’s
To triple Guangzhou facilities in three years.
Guangzhou plant will continue to do well, especially with recent news that Volkswagen
will be setting up a new assembly factory in Nanhai district, Foshan city. On 11 Jun,
FAW-VW (JV between First Auto and Volkswagen) held a signing ceremony for the
project, which would involve a total investment of 500m euros, in Foshan, Guangdong
Province, southern China. The new factory is scheduled to start operations in 2013,
with initial production capacity for 300k vehicles. Armstrong also plans to triple the
manufacturing floor space of its Guangzhou facilities from about 10k sf to 30k sf in the
next three years, reflecting its optimism on its southern China business.Management is confident that its
Plans to expand capacity and technology in Changchun.
of the overall auto industry in China, Armstrong will continue to invest in R&D to widen
its product offerings. It plans to set up an automotive technology centre in its
Changchun plant to spearhead auto components development in China, and will also
expand its manufacturing floor space by more than 30% this year from 125k sf to 168k
sf. The Changchun plant has secured a second car-seat project, for which mass
production could commence in 2011.In a bid to charge ahead
Moving westwards.
Tianjin), southern China (Guangzhou), and central (Wuhan), Armstrong is eyeing
western China, which is another automotive-manufacturing hub. According to statistics
from the Chongqing Foreign Trade and Economic Relations Commission, Chongqing
is expected to produce 1.5m units of cars and motorcycles, including 1.2m passenger
cars in 2010, accounting for about 15% of China’s total output. Armstrong plans to
start a representative office in Chongqing, and will be doubling its Wuhan plant this
year to 72k sf to support Chongqing’s requirements. However, it may eventually set up
a facility in Chongqing when business growth justifies this.Having established facilities in northern China (Changchun and
Limited impact from recent production shut-down at Honda plant.
said the recent production shut-down caused by workers’ strikes at Honda’s car plant
in Guangzhou will only hurt marginally as Armstrong only supplies Rmb700k-850k of
products a month to Honda through air-condition suppliers. This represents less than
5% of its auto component sales in China.Management
No further comments on major shareholder’s discussions with third party.
discussions are reportedly preliminary and non-binding, and there is no certainty that
any proposal, offer or transaction will materialise. No further details were disclosed.The
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Fi

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