Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 05-Jan-2007 16:39 |
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SIAS Research Top Pick
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if you look at the fine print beneath the analyst's report, they're part of some MAS (or is it SGX) share coverage scheme. they get paid i believe abt 5k per report. as well as a kind of credibility rating. that's on the govt's part. privately, most companies do hire analysts to do their financial reports, esp when linked to audits. If they're very big, they might have internal ppl. you start off with the stock that is most watched; the blue chips. some newbies will have 'initating/initated coverage'. this means the brokerage house believes the stock will be of interest in the market. THe more coverage a stock has, the more 'blue chip' it is, or the more interest it has in market sentiment. |
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| 05-Jan-2007 16:29 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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20% or more...it means you trade in mainly pennies isn't it? good that you balance it out with the divvy plays then. :) hehe. divvy plays. i've parked my money into macqinf (long term, so dont bother doing a TA on it). at approx divvy yield of ~5%, it's my 'savings account'. haha. POSB gives like a measly 0.25% only... >~< maybank's the best for FDs. |
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| 05-Jan-2007 16:05 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hm. just wondering (a bit premature), but what's on the Fellowship's stock watchlist for jan-feb? elf's positioning for then alr. looking for counters. and hey, let's share. how do you guys decide when to lock in profits etc? For me, i set an actual profit target to be made annually; and then divide that up by the no: of mths. So if i've made 'enough' already--like for jan now--i'll actually 'close shop', esp if i don't trust current market. ya i know, i'm very much a coward aren't i. hahaaaaa... |
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| 05-Jan-2007 15:41 |
SPC
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SPC
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ack, lg1167, genting, i have only one advice: DON'T go in. It's crazily bought/sold and manipulated. but again, it's risk/reward and what you're comfortable with, and haha like i said, this elf's a coward, she only trades in shallow waters. there are better counters lah. look at allgreen. nicely making its comeback. |
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| 05-Jan-2007 15:38 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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or, as Einstein once said, "There are only two constants in the world, death, and stupidity. And I'm not so sure about the former." haha. welcome, welcome all! :))) yep singaporegal, wise words from our Arwen indeed. Gotta get rid of the ring that binds us! giantlow, put it all together: hannibal lecter's in the house and mummy's gone shopping and left her baby unattended. *uh oh* ipunter, sorry to hear you got whacked. no wonder you seemed subdued. hehe. |
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| 05-Jan-2007 13:52 |
SPC
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SPC
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hey lg1167 (another mysterious nick, hey, explain yourself leh...): oh dear, i think punter, jackjames and i have been freaking out the SPC ppl here...apologies... agree with victor_lee. If there's another counter you're eyeing, why not? But note, each person trades accord to his/her own personality. So take only from our advice what suits you pls; don't follow exactly! i dont like to tell ppl what to do with their stocks (since will get blame but never credit haha), but these are the options given for private clients in your shoes; one of following: 1)take SPC as a long term investment; when it bottoms out, buy in amt equivalent to average $5 or less. 'cos long term, this counter is, as punter says, liquid gold. Be prepared to holddddddd.... 2) Cut loss. From 5.7 to 4.28 =>1.42 loss. Find another stock that is currently abt $1 or so on market; and FA target = 1.35 or more (admittedly difficult on this overbought market). with 1 of SPC you can buy 4 of this stock. This way you can make back to overall even out. 3) For the unsure: cut half loss; do both 1) and 2). note these are just the normal options funds take. pls do make up your own mind; i cannot--and will not--tell you what to do, it's gotta be your choice. |
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| 05-Jan-2007 12:10 |
SPC
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SPC
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yah...considering its a share i'm not even invested in. niama....haha. heh. for giantlow lah. he seems quite worried. |
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| 05-Jan-2007 12:10 |
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Market Correction is here?
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eh?? beg to be different on the STI prediction, or the random posting? was wondering how come punter didn't seem to be talking to his elf anymore. weh. haha. hope all your vestings are fine man. :) |
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| 05-Jan-2007 12:04 |
Genting Sing
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outlook
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hey aloha, yea, was expecting from last night for genting to end up in the 80s range. think it's a crazy counter to even trade in. lg1167: long position: buy low sell (hopefully) high. short: sell high, buy back low. giantlow. nope, didnt short this counter; can't do that, don't have margin acct. but rem, i did tell you as a day trade for the gutsy. hehe. just for interest's sake (so everyone can see how wrong i am later haha): if i could short this counter, i'd have sold first thing in morn at opening price, and simultaneously queued a buy at 85-86c. semipro: dif cat of big boys: rich private investors (10 mil above liquid assets), fund mgmt institutions, banks, hedge and equity funds. For pennies esp, it includes the directors and major shareholders themselves. The psychology of each is slightly dif, and sometimes they'll 'war' between each other. apologies i don't get what you mean by naked short/not (i trade only long positions). but if you have access to queue vols and prices you can prob find what you want to know. if you see a closely timed queue (like yesterday) for sell at $1.2 and buy at 95c (for eg); it means a lot of shortists in hopeful action. yes it's definitely bought and manipulated, by both big timers and small. do you mean SGX actually buying, or as a deal maker? for the 2nd: certain fund houses etc have privileges; they can do married deals with other houses/whoever interested. esp when its directors changing holdings. if both buyer and seller willing, it's a done deal. |
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| 05-Jan-2007 11:47 |
SPC
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SPC
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if you follow its trend, wld expect SPC to drop to ard 4.25 by today. |
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| 05-Jan-2007 11:40 |
SPC
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SPC
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giantlow, sometimes, it is good to cut loss. I once took loss of 10k at a shot. but made it back in two subsequent trades. (you bought both the mother stock and the warrants?!) don't think big boys all the time pls...think i might have put a 'trust no one' mentality into some forumers here. hehe. SPC's vols are too low for its share price. that means that institutions are not interested in it. Institutions trade via FA rationale mainly. => for whatever reason, they think SPC is not fundamentally sound already. What i meant by complicated: SPC has a lot of businesses in different areas: discovery, refinery, aviation etc. All these are affected by different factors, so a rise/drop in crude does not necessarily equate a rise/drop in SPC. eg, crude prices rise => oil product prices rise (as Livermore rightly pointed out). But then, SPC is a _business_. Can it afford to let the price of its _own_ oil products rise, when other competitors are keeping them low? It's supply and demand. If i were a client of SPC, i'd simply switch suppliers. One more error in thinking: tourist arrivals in singapore increase, yes, but then, is SPC the only supplier of this aviation fuel? As long as it does not have a monopoly (Not too sure on this), tourist arrival doesnt affect, not if the no: of planes each time is the same. (empty plane or full plane still req same amt of fuel?? not a driver myself so don't know this). that's what i meant by SPC complicated biz. one increase could very well be cancelled out by another; they're exposed to too many risks. heh. i don't trade warrants. good luck with them. your chance is in april with the nigerian elections. it will determine the oil sentiment in the world. |
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| 05-Jan-2007 11:29 |
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Market Correction is here?
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ack. just realised what i wrote sounds like a cheap backhanded self-compliment. how annoying of me. Sorry. what i really meant: as a female, it isn't funny, nor complimentary to be forcibly manhandled, little old ladies or not. eh. giantlow. mebbe we should set up a thread for all these random postings (The Fellowship?? :P), so that we can let serious conversationalists carry on without distractions. :) the correction's here. expecting the STI to drop below 3k by today. |
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| 04-Jan-2007 22:57 |
SPC
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SPC
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hahaha...negative news...so you can sell first right? ...spoken like a true trader. haha. :P ok, will try to be a mole. :) erm. SPC is primarily an oil refinery company. not an oil discovery company. Which means they buy some oil for refining. So if crude prices go up, their profit margin will actually drop. but you won't see it moving proportionally or inversely proportionate 'cos of other complicating factors. |
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| 04-Jan-2007 22:51 |
Genting Sing
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outlook
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yep, need a CFD acct. (what's SBL?). nah, stay out of it then. huge temptation yes, but not worth to me. don't know about intraday, but am pretty sure it'll drop from opening to closing tho. i think i said it in another post somewhere: at least one category of the big boys have completed/will soon complete their trades on the market (pls don't ask source etc). The rest will follow. I'm serious here. If you want to track if its Temasek: find another counter that they bought into recently. See their buy patterns (vol, time, price range). compare it with Genting's. If it's similar, it's prob them. 'cos people move in familiar patterns; they can be traced. Don't personally think temasek will buy genting at $1 plus tho. not unless there's some info we don't know. but hey. look at it logically. who benefits the most if genting's share price increases? (never mind the drop aft, since they'd have sold it by then) that's all i'm saying. :) |
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| 04-Jan-2007 22:37 |
Genting Sing
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outlook
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mm yea...otherwise known as the greater fool theory. ("it climbs higher and higher and who gets caught in the end?") eh. it's way above its FA fair value lah, even taking into acct casino win and UK venture. plus, look at its volumes and sudden price changes. crazy to even try TA or FA on it. it's pure sentiment, pure manipulation. the retailers are causing the 'noise'. Sieve the big guys out from them, you'll see the actual trend. |
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| 04-Jan-2007 22:14 |
Ho Bee Land
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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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bedoop, no prob singaporegal. :) wouldn't say i understand you very well, but it's just that a lot of your trading philos are similar to mine (consistent profits, specific counters that 'pass' criteria, caution of vol/price surges etc); esp when i do pure TA trades, so yea. :) hm. act, if you look at the mathematics of it; then, realistically, TA is a better tool than FA. the only problem, to me, is that you have to really read what IS, and not take every faintest little blip to mean it's going your way (when all other signs say otherwise). that to me is the most difficult thing to master in TA. (oh dear, this should perhaps go in the 'common investors' thread) |
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| 04-Jan-2007 21:28 |
Ho Bee Land
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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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hm...ok cr_kai, if i may just offer my take here? i think what singaporegal means when she says she trades often is that she buys and sells within a short period of time (each trade). Most TA people would move fast, because the aim of TA is to follow the trend. I'm using a mix of TA/FA/sentiment (purists from all sides would scream at me), so to the best of my limited knowledge: what TA tracks, no matter what indicator/chart, is the actual price and volume. In that sense, to me it is the mathematical picture of sentiment. It attempts to put into a readable format what FA guesses at. And in this way it tracks the _trend_ that is _actually happening_. FA on the other hand is the extrapolation based on presumed ratios and averages (PE/NAV/premiums/etcetc) etc. It attempts to predict based on fundamnetal value of a company (as opposed to TA, which sees what directly _is_--ie, accounting for sentiment as well). THis is the research that most people do. _neither TA nor FA claims to be perfect/right_. The aim of each is simply to _increase_ the odds of you guessing rightly, and hence increase your chances of winning. Which is why, there are parameters within which each must exist. e.g., TA is not accurate on low vol stocks, pennies etc. For TA, it is all about the trend. Like simple mathematics: if you see that 1+2=3, and 1+3=4, then necessarily, 1+x must equal to something higher, assuming that x= all real positive nos (this last being the parameter without which TA would be wrong). and heh. tarot reading can be very accurate. but really. at the end of the day, it's all about profit. If you can find a method which works for you, does it matter if its TA or FA or fortunetelling? The reality of the market is only one thing: profit. Anyway, whatever way. |
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| 04-Jan-2007 21:14 |
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keke, don't keep your hopes up. if i get any wind of news earlier, you wanna know? :) |
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| 04-Jan-2007 21:12 |
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Market Correction is here?
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i'm small sized, yea. and i tend to flit around *haha*. ..and what is it with little old caucasian ladies?! each time i go to the US or Europe, they like to come up to me and grab me by the hand/face and coo, "ooh, what a beautiful little oriental girl!" like i'm some kind of doll or what....>o< oop paiseh, digression here. hehe. apologies to all reading. :) |
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| 04-Jan-2007 20:56 |
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Market Correction is here?
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hehe, apologies, just curious here. if you don't mind, brandonharrist, why that as your nick? and why's singaporegal called singaporegal? did you use to be in SQ? :P |
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