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Latest Posts By yipyip - Master      About yipyip
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02-Jun-2009 08:51 Others   /   DOW       Go to Message
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1Jun09  DOW closed 8721.44,  200MA at 8765.67...Very good! Just 44.23pts to clear.. STI will jump high today!

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=3m;indicator=sma(200)+stochasticfast;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
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01-Jun-2009 22:43 Others   /   DOW       Go to Message
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If tonight DOW can close +263pts, the breakout of 200 MA would happen... positive sign of recovery+++ may the bull be with us! 

29May09  DOW closed  8500.33pts ,  200 MA was 8779.73pts
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01-Jun-2009 16:44 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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(BT) 1/6/2009
 
Midas bids for China rail projects

SINGAPORE - Singapore-listed manufacturing firm Midas Holdings said on Monday that it was considering building a fourth production line as it bids for more rail contracts in China.

Patrick Chew, chief executive officer of Midas, told Reuters the firm was targeting winning S$200 million (US$139 million) worth of contracts for high-speed and metro trains in China as the country increased spending on infrastructure projects.

'We are running after several projects in China at the moment,' Mr Chew said in an interview. 'If it comes fast and furious, we do not discount the possibility that we might launch a fourth line.'

Midas, a maker of aluminium parts, expects its third production line to be ready in the first quarter of 2010, which will boost capacity by 50 per cent. -- REUTERS
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28-May-2009 23:56 RafflesEdu   /   Raffles Edu       Go to Message
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(OCBC) 28/5/09 Raffles Education Corp

OUC debt update.
We met up with the Raffles Education Corporation (Raffles) recently to obtain some updates. Raffles confirmed that there will be no interest paid for debt pertaining to its Oriental University City (OUC)
purchase and that the subsequent payments of RMB1.5b would be phased into three tranches. The next major payment of RMB500m will be due on 30 Apr 10. We believe the interest-free deal was struck as a give-and-take agreement due to non performance of "Material Conditions" stated in the Schedule of the original agreement dated 11 Oct 07. In a gist, the main unfulfilled conditions include
(1) transfer of Langfang Vocational and Health Schools (contributes up to 20,000 students) and;
(2) obtaining permits for 1 private college and 2 public-private schools.

Securitising OUC in progress.
Management continues to be optimistic that OUC is a well worth investment to embark on its next phase of growth. The listing plan to pay for this asset took its next step with the recent debt
deferment deal where 60% of OUC debt is to be repaid in full "upon the recovery of the economy from the current global economic crisis." Post listing, the provincial government will likely own a significant part of OUC. While we are uncertain of the provincial government's intention with its shares, we think that it would still keep a stake seeing that it can be a cash producing asset that has now been turned around by Raffles. As education is largely driven by regulators, the government's stake in the listed entity will be seen as an advantage for Raffles.

ORIC update.
Separately, Oriental Century (ORIC) released a 17-page update by PWC on 26 May 09. PWC basically indicated that it would be impractical to trust any of the accounts. While one of the three operating
entities seem to be operationally profitable at this point, PWC warned of possible significant attrition of student numbers due to lack of confidence as a going concern. Raffles has indicated that it could possibly acquire ORIC if it ascertains all its documented and undocumented liabilities.

Paring expectations for the year.
We have pared down our estimates for FY09 and FY10 as we mitigate our expectations on the rate of growth its organic expansion can bring. Our fair value is tweaked to S$0.57 (prev. S$0.59) at 12x FY10F PER. We are maintaining our BUY call and will be incentivised to re-peg when student enrolments exceed our expectations.

 
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28-May-2009 23:44 Golden Agri-Res   /   GoldenAgr       Go to Message
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Comments (CIMB) 28/May/09
Not surprising. Golden Agri had already flagged to the market two weeks ago that it was mulling a rights issue. The amount of funds to be raised matches the amount speculated by the media, of around US$200m. What was new were the two free detachable warrants for every five rights shares subscribed which would be EPSdilutive if and when the warrants are in-the-money. We believe this is to help sweeten the deal. Also, the rights issue price is at a sharp 60% discount to the last closing price against our earlier expectation of 40%. We understand that this is to ensure strong take-up of the rights. Assuming the net proceeds fetch an annual return of 5%, we estimate that the rights will dilute our FY10 EPS forecast for Golden Agri by 12%. We are not computing dilution from the warrants at this juncture as they are out-of-the
money.

Although the news is not a surprise, we maintain our negative take on it given:
1) the earnings dilution;
2) the group’s ability to fund its capex needs with internal funds; and
3) its low net gearing ratio of 0.09x as at 31 Mar 09.


Figure 1: Impact on EPS and target price
Tuesday's closing price (S$ per share) 0.45
Rights price (S$ per share) 0.18
Theoretical ex-rights price (S$ per share) 0.41

Current number of shares (m)        10,375 x 0.45 =  a. $4,668.75
17-for100 rights issue (m)                1,764 x 0.18 =  b. $317.52

Total shares after rights issue (m)   10,375 + 1,764 = c. 12,139

After dilution :  (a.$4668.75 + b.$317.52) / c.12,139 = $0.411
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28-May-2009 23:18 Genting Sing   /   Genting moving up fast.       Go to Message
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By Carey Wong OCBC
Thu, 28 May 2009, 10:30:02 SGT

Two major shareholders of Genting Singapore (GTGS) – controlled by the founding Lim family - have pared their stakes in the company after selling a total of 834m shares at S$0.72 each. Other than the sharp 16% discount to the previous day’s close, we do not think there are any major negative implications behind the move. Instead, we continue to view the gaming market as very promising and should bode well for GTGS when its Resorts World @ Sentosa opens in 1Q10. As the news of the discounted share sale has resulted in GTGS’s share price tumbling 17.9% yesterday to S$0.71, bringing it 6.6% below our recently revised fair value of S$0.76, we upgrade our rating to HOLD. However, the near-term outlook for GTGS has not improved – we are still expecting its UK operations to languish for the rest of this year. We would be buyers closer to S$0.60 or so.

Two shareholders pare stake. Two major shareholders of Genting Singapore (GTGS) – controlled by the founding Lim family - have pared their stakes in the company. According to the company’s filings, Lakewood Sdn Bhd sold about 265.809m shares and Golden Hope Limited sold 649.073m shares today, all reportedly done at S$0.72 each via placement agreements through JPMorgan Chase and UBS AG. In total, the two parties sold nearly 9% of the outstanding 9637.8m share capital to raise S$615m. However as these were vendor shares, GTGS will not be getting any of the proceeds.

No negative implications behind the sale. Other than the sharp 16% discount to the previous day closing price of S$0.865, we do not think that there are any major negative implications behind the move. For one, reports suggest that the placement was made to close to 40 parties, including specialist gaming investors, long-only Asia funds and deal players who liked the big discount. As mentioned in our earlier report, the outlook for the gaming market in Asia remains very promising – industry watchers expect the market to grow by 15.7% CAGR for the next five years.

Lim family eyeing Mirage Macau asset? And the third reason for the stake sale could be related to talks that the Lim family is raising cash for a possible investment in MGM Mirage’s Macau casino. Parent Genting Bhd and sister company Resorts World earlier bought a combined US$100m of secured notes sold by MGM Mirage. But given the link to Pansy Ho, the daughter of Stanley Ho, the investment could be quite a sensitive issue with authorities in Singapore. As such, we suspect the Genting group may not want to be directly involved.

Upgrade to HOLD. The news of the discounted share sale has resulted in GTGS’s share price tumbling 17.9% yesterday to S$0.71. As the share price is now 6.6% below our recently revised fair value of S$0.76, we upgrade our rating to HOLD. However, the near-term outlook for GTGS has not improved – we are still expecting its UK operations to languish for the rest of this year. Although we continue to expect a net loss in FY10, the opening of Resorts World @ Sentosa in 1Q10 could prove to be a wild card. Nevertheless, we would be buyers closer to S$0.60 or so.

 
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27-May-2009 22:47 SPC   /   SPC       Go to Message
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Singapore Petroleum Co -250509-DBS VICKERS SECURITIES
Singapore Petroleum Co (SPC)
May 25 close: $6.05
DBS VICKERS SECURITIES, May 25

ACQUISITION by Petrochina: Keppel announced yesterday that it had entered into an agreement to sell its entire 45.51 per cent stake in SPC to Petrochina for $6.25 per share, or US$1.47 billion in cash.

Generous offer: The offer price is at 24 per cent premium to last Friday’s closing price and implies 15.7 times 2009 PE and 11.6 times 2010 PE, and 1.8 times and 1.7 times P/BV, respectively.

The offer price is generous and valuations are significantly higher than regional peers’ average of less than 10 times PE for 2009-10 and 1.1-1.2x P/BV.

But for Petrochina, the price tag implies EV/refining capacity of US$16,000/bpd including SPC’s distribution network and E&P assets, which is still lower than the estimated refinery replacement cost of US$20,000/bpd.

Upgrade to ‘buy’ with target price of $6.25: The share sale should trigger a tender offer. In our view, the offer price is attractive and we recommend investors accept the offer.

With this tender offer, SPC’s share should rise to $6.25, which implies 24 per cent upside.
BUY
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27-May-2009 22:43 SIA   /   A380 A Great Way to Fly       Go to Message
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S’pore Airlines -260509-Credit Suisse
S’pore Airlines
$12.00 | Outperform

Credit Suisse keeps rating and raises target price to $15.07 from $13.00. Says “SIA looks attractive on a risk-reward basis and investors should start to position for a cyclical recovery”, While operating data could still be weak in next two to three months, sequential improvements in traffic, yields and profitability from H2 ’09 will lift share price, brokerage says.
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27-May-2009 11:29 Genting Sing   /   Genting moving up fast.       Go to Message
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May 27, 2009, 11.17 am (BT)
 
Owners sell 9% Genting S'pore for US$425m
* Shares in Genting Singapore fall as much as 21%
* Sellers are entities owned by family that owns Genting
* Sale aimed at boosting liquidity in shares: source

The family that owns Malaysian gaming firm Genting sold about 9 per cent of shares in its Singapore unit to institutions on Wednesday, raising S$615 million (US$425 million), two sources with knowledge of the deal told Reuters.

A total of 853.8 million Genting Singapore shares were sold at S$0.72 a share, a discount of around 17 per cent from its last closing price. Shares of the firm dropped as much as 21 per cent in early trade, inviting a query from the Singapore Exchange about the sharp movement in its share price.
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27-May-2009 10:18 Genting Sing   /   Genting moving up fast.       Go to Message
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http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/marketplace/mp-en/listed_companies_info/company_announcements/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gTn1DXUFNLYwMLtwA3AyMvZ3Mf09AAA_dAc6B8JE55A3czArq99KPSc_KTgPb4eeTnpuoX5EZUOjoqKgIAFOdGOQ!!/dl3/d3/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/
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26-May-2009 23:34 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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my est 0.81~0.815
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26-May-2009 23:10 Others   /   DOW       Go to Message
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I guess the occurrence of intersection of DOW and 200-day MA will form very soon.... like 7 to 10 days..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=m200&a=&c=
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26-May-2009 11:27 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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The current resistance level at $0.68, if breaking , Midas will test the next resistance level.
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26-May-2009 10:57 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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Midas train is moving up ...
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24-May-2009 17:57 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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Midas : 50 days MA,100 days MA & 200 days MA

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=5EN.SI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m50,m100,m200&a=&c=
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22-May-2009 14:19 STXPO 100   /   STX Pan Ocean       Go to Message
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Valuation and recommendation

Maintain UNDERPERFORM and SOP target price of S$8; earnings under review.
We believe that further share price upside is limited and investors should take profit at
the current price. Our target is based on a 50% discount to its RNAV, and without the
discount our target would be around S$15, which suggests limited upside from the
current share price. We are also concerned about the dilution of a potential rights
issue. Our earnings forecasts are under review, and we may widen the 2009 loss but
narrow the 2010 loss.

Dry bulk pullback? The BDI has risen to above 2,700 points on the back of record
Chinese iron ore imports. While some of the Chinese ore imports were driven by iron
ore traders speculating on a continued rise in iron ore spot prices, there is also a
genuine substitution of imports for domestically sourced ore due to price and quality
considerations. Nevertheless, Chinese port inventories of iron ore have risen to almost
70m tonnes, near its record highs during mid-2008, and some pullback could be
possible.


CIMB 22May09
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22-May-2009 14:12 SGX   /   SGX       Go to Message
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SGX

Upgrade target price from S$5.67 to S$7.84; upgrade stock to Outperform from
Underperform. Our higher SDAV assumptions raise our DDM-based target price
from S$5.67 to S$7.84 (WACC 9.0%, terminal growth 3.8%). Our new target implies
20x CY10 P/E and 5% dividend yields. SGX’s P/E now looks more attractive than
other Asian bourses. Markets are starting to pull back after a strong 10-week rally.
Having underperformed somewhat in the past month, SGX looks good for one to
position for the next wave. Upgrade to Outperform.

• Derivatives could also recover. Rising equity markets tend to sooth most
concerns. Tracking the four key index futures contracts in SGX’s derivatives stable,
March and April volumes have already recovered from Nov 08-Feb 09 levels.
Trading has been particularly strong in MSCI Taiwan futures contracts. Activity in
Nifty 50 contracts is likely to surge in May as well. Our previous fear was that the
slowdown in SGX’s derivatives business at the turn of the year hinted at something
more structural. That concern seems overblown.

CIMB 22May09
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22-May-2009 14:06 COSCO SHP SG   /   CoscoCorp       Go to Message
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Offshore and Marine Sector
DMG & PARTNERS SECURITIES, May 21


WE are upgrading our offshore and marine sector from Neutral to Overweight.

Macro environment appears to turn for the better. With general strengthening in commodity and the rally in global equities markets, oil prices have climbed 70 per cent from the February lows. We believe crude oil price will trend higher, driven by Opec production cuts and signs of recovery of consumer demand.

While both Keppel and SCM have outperformed the STI, we believe that there is further upside, especially from secular earnings growth and strong new order momentum. We also note that both Keppel and SCM are currently trading at undemanding valuations even after the recent price rebound. Upgrade Keppel to Buy, Cosco to Neutral and reiterate Buy on SCM.
OVERWEIGHT
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20-May-2009 23:51 Sinotel Technolo Rg   /   Sinotel IPO       Go to Message
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Sinotel Technologies
May 19 close: $0.22
WESTCOMB SECURITIES, May 19

There are some positive developments for Sinotel during Q1 2009, particularly the rapidly growing telecommunication industry in China, swelling order book and new credit facilities secured. The capital expenditure for wireless network enhancements in China is estimated to be 33-50 billion yuan. Its order book, currently at 390 million yuan, is expected to swell. The new credit facilities secured recently ease our concern over lack of capital to finance its growth plans. We peg at PER FY2009 of four times (previously three) to derive a target price of $0.33.
BUY
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19-May-2009 14:01 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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The occurrence of intersection of the 50-day MA and 100-day MA is likely to suggest upside potential... wat's your view?
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