Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 08-Sep-2008 17:24 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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meh. not even a single gain? 
trading is inevitable, really. if used wisely, it can aid a portfolio.  to me, it is distinct from gambling though. gambling is basically just "whacking", but trading has strict rules, do's and don'ts, and you break these rules at your own detriment. (eg, a stop loss is a stop loss. you don't hold on and wish and hope for it to be different.)
yah. i was thinking (and still thinking and thinking  ) of a course. one section which i shall title "Operation Salvage and Rescue".
perhaps contrary to popular opinion, now's actually the best time to launch a course. cos only when ppl are down will they listen to you. 
desire: in short, it all depends on what you're holding. what's your loss. and your risk appetite. and if you have cash to launch a rescue op. and don't view it negatively, think of it as tuition fees. Without paying it, how will you ever appreciate your success in future? And if you can be so easily scared off, is this really what you want? paths to undertake: learn from everyone but never apply blindly. what's meat to one man may be poison to another, remember that. oh and about the most important rule: when in doubt, DO NOT ENTER. Of course, this is probably sound advice for relationships, careers and everything as well.  |
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| 08-Sep-2008 17:12 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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well, if nothing else, ya can be sure that quite a lot of the vol today was by shortists rushing to cover back.  and hey! i got post 8888! 
i shd expect the DJIA to be up at least 200 pts on open.... |
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| 08-Sep-2008 16:57 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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the last para of my post. Friday was indeed controlled accumulation. Those in for rapids; can hold to tomorrow to sell. at the peak of today's px or so. If you're not greedy, can opt to lock in already. why say no to a gift. :) for longterm, wait for next bottom to buy again. Keep eyes on the goal and do not deviate. why ban shorting: because it is gambling. it creates unnecessary interference and is skewed for the BBs to succeed. Already they have so many advantages: level 2 trading platforms, the ability to see who the players on each counter is, near limitless amount of cash, the ability to control analysts to give favourable reports. Cartels. Why give one more tool to them? there's a difference between selling something you own (which i have no objection to), and shorting--which is to sell something you don't own. The latter is a form of leverage. It is what causes extreme volatility. Especially when groups of BBs combine together to sink a counter dead. How does that "promotes a fair, orderly and transparent marketplace"? http://info.sgx.com/SGXWeb_CORPCOM.nsf/newDOCNAME/Background_On_SGX (as per SGX's own website: section on risk management and regulation)
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| 07-Sep-2008 23:53 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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to follow up from andrew's post; the relevant articles for the interested: 1) the discovery that spurred conservatorship: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/business/07fannie.html?_r=3&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin 2) the news itself: http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/07/news/companies/fannie_freddie/index.htm i kinda thought the effect on the local market would be positive, actually. esp since it appeared to be controlled accumulation on the blues on fri by foreigners. there was tanking, then significant lidding and collecting at depressed prices. (i may be wrong tho). |
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| 07-Sep-2008 23:21 |
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STI will touch 2000 points
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prophecies tend to be self fulfilling. markets move on perception, the perception of the masses. simply be careful not to get caught out by a sudden ramp if you're happily shorting the market now. |
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| 07-Sep-2008 23:19 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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if ya ask me, the entire cause of all this trouble is from the US. No thanks to greedy Wall Street banks and men who thought that, just because they have Ivy League credentials, they can do anything and get away with anything. Well look what happened. They bombed big time at the subprime and debt obligations, with the resultant being that all these foreigners--which our country so wants to attract--majorly sold AND shorted Asia and Singapore to earn back what they lost in the US. I mean really, do you think the STI fell because it "lost value"? Asia was booming. Our market, as it's very open, basically got shorted to death by all these foreigners. To the point that even local BBs are dead or dying. To the point that even longterm fundamental investors cannot afford to hold. What more a small fry? The average investor here loses out not because he's more dumb, or less educated. He loses out because he has less money. We're simply no competition against the likes of Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Citigroup Asia. To put out fires in their own backyards, they start fires in others'. Remember the names above: because when I say foreign BB, I mean one or more of these. These are the "regulars". In the trading circles, we know them by their number tags. Because here's a reality check for the FA folks and those who are puzzling why their counters lost value even if it did post stellar results: You think fundamentals can stand against those who need to make money, who want to make money, and who essentially have a free hand and loads of cash to do anything they want? You think BBs really believe in fundamentals, in "holding for the longterm"? Cosco, for instance. Those of you holding its scrips in your hands, wondering why a company can report 78% increase in net profitability yet tank brutally from 274 to 187 in a single month alone: Merrill Lynch is one of the BBs who played this baby dead. They'll ride it a few more times, to be sure. Flog it til its dead. Squeeze it til its dry. There is one thing that our authorities can actually do to protect local investors, but sure as hell they won't do it, because, their concern is not to rock the boat. Phrased nicely, they'll tell you, "it's open market principles; that is fair." Well, I say it's patently unfair. Small fries can never win against the money of the elite. The one thing that our authorities can do, which they will never do, is what the US itself, that "leader of the free world", did for a while: Ban shorting on the STI. |
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| 07-Sep-2008 22:47 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yuppers livermore, concur with you about the transfer of funds thing. a lot of ppl think if they cut loss, it means they lose. but they forget that losing on one counter doesn't equate losing overall.
and yes, always impt to learn from own mistakes and refine your strat til you get one that works for yourself. :) and hehe, you're more honest here than a lot of other ppl. Most will brag about their gains, but few if ever, will talk about their mistakes. 
the profits thing: i was more thinking of those who have just started out: they'd not have any profit from the previous bull run(s), since they'd not have participated in it. So if they do not risk initial capital, they can't possibly reap returns, can they? These are the ones who have to take a chance. One can't learn to swim just by reading books on swimming. your selling off during uptrend and buy back during correction: yuppers, i do that too. I call it cantilevering. Sometimes i apply it across shares, esp those whose cycles are different: so one stock goes up, sell it. put into second stock that may be on uptrend. Ride til its peak over, go back to stock 1 which is just downtrending and curving up.
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| 06-Sep-2008 22:28 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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on a more lighthearted note. just to share with everyone what i have as the wallpaper of my laptop.
before that, lemme just clarify one point: i'm primarily a trader, in that i follow technicals. but i also make a first cut via fundamentals: ie, i only choose stocks that have reasonable fundamental basics for playing. occasionally i'll scalp, but that's only selectively, and on counters that i know well (eg, knowing who's the BB supporting the counter etcetc). what i play is divided too (portfolio allocation): a % for rapid scalps (lowest % of folio), a % for longer term trading (<3 mths), a % for holding (>6 mths, no problem; high div yielders are in this cat. very strict FA criteria for selection). -------------- 1) NEVER give up longterm gains for short. 2) Do NOT punt. 3) Always have an exit strategy. 4) Have a plan. Know what you are buying, why and how. 5) Do NOT overtrade. 6) When in doubt, stay out. 7) Never buy in the first 15 min of an up day. 8) Always follow the trend. 9) What do the charts say? Do not listen to anyone else. 10) Stay consistent. Stick with the plan. ------------ hope others may find them of use. tweak as necessary. cheers! :) |
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| 06-Sep-2008 22:13 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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"If my guess is right, then averaging down for that stock from $2 to $1.20 is not exactly what I would do. My main point is don't incur huge paper loss if you have no net profit from last bull run. " That really depends on the individual investor. The strategy, the time frame, the stock itself. One cannot say that one method is the best. And if one has to depend on profit from previous runs, how does one become wealthy then? The fact is that life provides no safety nets. It is only in singapore that we always need to be safe before we dare to venture out. No wonder why entrpreneurship never takes off here, but must be a government initiative. haha. there always has to be a chance taken somewhere. to get started. The old Singapore was not built on the backs of people who needed a degree, a stable job, savings, before they ventured out. The old Singapore was built by people who dared to take a chance even when they had nothing. In the end, it is the market who decides the victor. The rest, really, is sound and fury: People can talk all they want about methods, write many TA books, and offer "secrets to success". But it is their portfolio which proves the reality. "Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy." If you don't start to buy in a down market, when does one buy then? In a bull? |
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| 06-Sep-2008 22:02 |
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keke, yuppers, trader88. stupidfool, many ways to invest/trade; it all depends on the person. stick to your way if it's yielding results and works for you. :) on other news: bingo. http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/05/news/companies/freddie_fannie/index.htm in short: they'll put freddie and fannie into conservatorship. bad for them, good for everyone else. Now all we need is KDB to formalise takeover % of Lehman Brothers, and what you have is a V recovery for asia. STI likely recuperate on mon. look for green volume days. May be long process, may be slow. Who knows. the policy for longterm investment is a consistent approach of buying on dips. When all the experts echo in unison talking down the markets, that is when you follow what they are actually doing (as opposed to talking). |
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| 06-Sep-2008 15:07 |
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that would depend on the concept of 'value'. hehe. If we're using FA terms of NAV and book-to-price as value, then, few stocks have even hit their proper value levels. Most would be deemed overpriced even now. If it's price you're talking about though, then yes, a lot of stocks have fallen from the highs that they were chased up to previously. Which only goes to show how Graham was indeed right, when he said that markets swing forever in the pendulum between irrational exuberance and unwarranted pessimism.
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| 06-Sep-2008 14:59 |
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in which case, i would question in the first place, the initial stock selection. You don't do DCA for trading stocks or worser yet, speculative ones. In second place: question the initial buy price. If value is at $1, or $2, why are you buying at $3? Stocks now, though they've fallen so much, realistically, very few are at or below NAV. Strict rules for value investing is first buy px not more than NAV, better yet if a half or a third. Then there are also historical trends to consider, and its current chart. Bottomline: If it is a real 'value' counter, it should not drop more than 50% from your first buy px. because you wouldn't have chosen to buy it at $3. if it was meant as a trading counter, 2.8 would have been a stop loss. Lowest 2.7. Either way, trader or investor, if one followed the rules, there should not even have been the issue of $3 to $1.22, and you're averaging down all the way. That's desperation, not investment.
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| 05-Sep-2008 15:57 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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JPM is the main BB controlling this counter today. fyi only. |
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| 05-Sep-2008 15:23 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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notes for today: foreigners selling/shelling the market. JPM, ML and MS chief culprits. the run up for some counters in consequent days will be fast because the sell queues are actually thin. |
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| 05-Sep-2008 15:01 |
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thanks for the swift reply. am thinking it's a good idea actually. start from the real basics--it may be unsexy and uncool--but there's something to be said for a solid and sound foundation. esp in a bear market. in a bull market, anyone can make money. but the real test is always in a bear. am happy to note that my counters have amazingly held up. o_0 separately, with regards to what to buy, what not to buy. anyone looking at STE? (no one shot whack pls.  )
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| 05-Sep-2008 14:48 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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eh, relax lah people. market so heated already, what's the point of raising one's own blood pressure? regardless of my personal opinion on this counter, i'll note this about bengster: he's always been factual, he's always cited sources. And yes, he may be overenthusiastic, but he's also said to buy at your own risk, isn't it? No one has the power to force another person to buy/sell; and each investor is ultimately responsible for himself/herself. If you buy just because you read one post on a forum, and then the counter goes down, whose blame is it really? and can we just make the observation that the ENTIRE market is tanking; so really, a biosensors fall isn't out of the ordinary here. Don't gotta kill the messenger. cool it, folks. Let's keep things friendly. :) |
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| 05-Sep-2008 14:43 |
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edit: and in a time like this, what to buy, what not to buy? how many here actually wld like help on such stuff. |
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| 05-Sep-2008 14:41 |
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juz a qn: leaving aside the question of temperament/personality: how many here do not know precisely what the other sifus and i mean when we say proper money management and asset/portfolio allocation? and about stops and how to use them and such. wld teaching such stuff be useful? just wondering. |
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| 05-Sep-2008 14:10 |
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may i add one point: books will teach you how to do TA, but there's a need to note that they are just general things. You'll have to practice live in order to make TA work. It isn't a dead thing to just be applied with rule all the time. Rules need to be bent and shifted according to the market place. So it's more a case of learning the principles, and then applying them as deem fit. Rather than a regurgitated application of it each time. eg, "when chaikin goes up, it means there's accumulation". True, but what's the time period? what's your time frame? Importantly, what kind of stock is it? is it actually a controlled distribution? Live eg: capitaland. It's a rapid trading counter (to me). Esp in this current market. If you wait for chaikin to go up three days in a row, the ramp up is done and gone by the time you buy. This is perhaps why people say TA is inaccurate, and it doesn't track the BBs rightly. Methinks it's not the tool itself that is wrong, but the parameters of application are wrong. And yah, before ppl start wanting to be gungho traders, it may be wise to learn how to go longterm first. baby steps, then walk, then run, before you fly. 
o/w, be prepared for crash landing as the market sure doesn't suffer fools. 
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| 05-Sep-2008 13:58 |
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good posts, stupidfool and HLJHLJ. yuppers. it's what i've been saying all along: the most important thing is money management. your portfolio should be clearly allocated: what's for longterm, what's for midterm trading, what's for shortterm. And if one doesn't have the temperament for shortterm trading, then don't. Because ultimately, we can't go against personality. And really, are all those sleepless nights worth it? Lemme put it this way: i can call the charts for intraday scalps and contra scalps, but even then, i rarely play them. When i do, it is less than 10% of my total folio. For the very simple reason that i know it's not me, and that longterm, doing something against myself will only result in losses. Lest i've been giving the impression that i'm a gungho trader : i'll be the first to say that i'm a coward. But it is as i've said: Think live chicken, not dead tiger! 
My own folio is strictly divided: a very small sum for rapid trades (currently i've cut that out totally already); majority is currently in sit-and-hold counters now, actually. And the benefits of proper money management is this: Despite all the downturns and shock downs, I have never once gotten a margin call. And that, to me, is what investment means. You do not play with your money. It is a tool for increasing wealth. It is hard work, it is discipline. Never believe those who tell you it is easy. Easy is merely luck: you check their track records for 20 years, then tell me if they survived. as traders, we need to know, very realistically, where we stand on the scale of things; what knowledge we have, what capability, and importantly, how much funds. Where is the wind blowing. Not going against the trend also means not going against your own niche in the entire hierarchy of the market. It means playing the way the market is going. As i've been saying for almost two months now: in this market you either go intraday or longterm. Which you choose is determined by your personality, skills and funds. Admitting you can't play one way is what lets you live. Pride does not help one to live; realism does. I'm small. I'm just a hay bee. I can't fight the big boys. And admitting this is precisely what enables me--and other retailers--to survive in this shark pool. cheers! |
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