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Latest Posts By elfinchilde - Elite      About elfinchilde
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22-Jan-2007 13:22 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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institutional call: resistance level for STI is 3200, support is 2400. weigh the risk/reward ratio and see if it's worth. most likely in this kind of climate, STI will break 3,200. thereafter is anyone's guess.

personally, not worth buying when everyone's rushing to buy. need to do serious FA work to unearth undervalued counters now. most are overpriced. see your vol price charts to know who's buying and who's selling; that's your clue to the entrance or exit.   

must say, it's pretty to see when everything's green tho. hehe.
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22-Jan-2007 13:15 Chartered   /   CSM Q4 Results (26th Jan '07)       Go to Message
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giantlow, choose contra plays wisely... if you wanna contra, don't do it on csm. the upside's not worth the risk.

pick sgx, allgreen or capitaland instead. Just make sure they didn't break their upper bollinger band yet--i can't do charting at wk so can't give info here.  
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21-Jan-2007 19:14 Others   /   SHAREJUNCTION LUNAR NEW YEAR DINNER?       Go to Message
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hehe ed88ks, even hardcore traders need to take a break now and then. :) if you'd noticed tho, there are a lot of online surfers browsing the site.

think most savvy investors (or anyone with sense) would be a little unsure and nervy now, actually. we've all been calling bear for so long now that when the bull keeps running, we don't know whether to trust our cautious instincts, or follow greed and keep punting.

DJIA has dropped 3 days in a row, and US sentiments are turning bearish--Apple managed to drop even tho it posted good earnings. would be interesting to see how this stacks up against MM Lee's declaration of tax cuts.
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21-Jan-2007 19:09 Chartered   /   CSM Q4 Results (26th Jan '07)       Go to Message
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ok peeps, have analysed the vol price charts for csm for friday.

total of 54 sells (ave lot size 167) vs 212 buys (ave lot size 17). Might have missed out a figure or two but the indication's clear enough; institutions were selling and retailers were buying.

no go for me for this baby.

ace6868, 'cos csm's fundamentally unsound as well. so perhaps see if you can take advantage of the market exuberance and sell out mebbe ard 1.30+ this week? i should expect it to go up monday. tho it's your call, of course. :)  
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21-Jan-2007 17:10 Others   /   SHAREJUNCTION LUNAR NEW YEAR DINNER?       Go to Message
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hehe tanglinboy, i like your suggestion. :P

and haha, it's such a slow sunday on SJ, and what's the point of being an elf if i can't stir up some mayhem/interest....

singaporegal, if you'll go, i'll go too.

muahahhaaaaa! ;P
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21-Jan-2007 17:06 EDMI   /   EDMI and parent SMB: What's the potential?       Go to Message
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hey victorian,

would like to express my thanks for your exhaustive, educational and well-researched posts, not just in this thread but the rest as well. Even if by no one else, it's much appreciated by this elf.

thank you! :)
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21-Jan-2007 12:30 Chartered   /   CSM Q4 Results (26th Jan '07)       Go to Message
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hey singaporegal,

yep, i know it's a longterm downtrend, right now, if i do play this counter, it's for a short uptrend on a downtrend. risky and swift movement necessary. am currently waiting for fri's price/vol charts before i make a move, if any.

thanks for the warning. :) will wanna get out of market by 1st week feb, if not next week alr. risk/reward ratio not worth for me already.  
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21-Jan-2007 01:05 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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hey lausk22, nice to see a fellow trader with the same sentiment as myself. or perhaps, in view of your seniority and experience, i should say i share the same thoughts as you. :)

yeah, for me it's all a game too--not in the sense of a mindless children's "whack the donkey! chiong ah! must win! everyone else die!" sense, but a beautiful, considered strategy of chess, where a nameless pawn has every equal right as the king to take the game. It's the endlessness of permutations and possibilities.

So yea, even if i had no money in it, i'd still play on, for love of the game alone. :)

'cos, if we call it right, we earn. if we call it wrong, we learn.

either way, it's a win. and this is the true, rare spirit of grace. :)

nites, all, sweet dreams!
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20-Jan-2007 13:10 SPC   /   SPC       Go to Message
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hey victorian, excellent post! :) btw, never really 'spoke' to you before but have been reading your posts. i like yr analysis. :)

yep, def not a multibagger, like i said, it's purely for divvy for me.

and haha, explorations are increasing but they're in fact finding less. that's why they're stepping up explorations. hm. mebbe we shd be buying rigging cos. haha.

but this isn't the main thing, it's your last point that interests me. Mind recommending some value plays? :) 
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20-Jan-2007 12:58 Others   /   SHAREJUNCTION LUNAR NEW YEAR DINNER?       Go to Message
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erm...tonersweat, i think you mean treat and not trick?

poor mr ngiam if it's the latter... he'll so boot us out! :P
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20-Jan-2007 12:56 SPC   /   SPC       Go to Message
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hang on...before i get questioned yet again:

when i say 'Asia's markets', i mean Asian equity markets.
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20-Jan-2007 12:41 SPC   /   SPC       Go to Message
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hehe, you know the people here are savvy investors when they demand specifics. haha.

giantlow, ipunter and victorian: i meant for 3-5 years.

yes, a lot of alternatives coming up; i want SPC 'cos first reason: dividend play.



2nd reason: macro world pic: oil appears to be bottoming out. The current hot money in Asia's markets is funded primarily from liquidity flowing out of commodities and developed markets, and because real estate is rated as being too overpriced to buy, plus latin america (the other 'emerging market') is focused mainly on commodities.



So the only place that global money has to go to? Asia. Specifically, India is weighed as a negative buy. Thailand has kicked itself out of the global game. Malaysia is so-so. Indonesia and Philippines are in a mess. Vietnam has to contend with the bird flu. Which leaves: China, Singapore, HongKong. This is why the STI and HSI have been going up. The hot money is here.

But once commodities, in particular oil, start their reversal for upwards, the money's going to flow OUT of Asia. Which is how you have some analysts talking about a sharp, swift correction.

When that happens, counters like SPC will be defensive against the other equities.

Victorian, i don't get what you mean by two year run up for oil-related stocks? which specific counters do you mean? SPC has been downtrending for at least 6 mths. Plus, most ppl look at oil as an equity. But we have to remember that it's also a commodity.

Aside: resistance level for STI is 3,200. Its support, however, is 2,400. STI is currently at 3072. You weigh the risk/reward for yourself, and decide if it's worth punting overvalued counters now. :)
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20-Jan-2007 10:27 Macquarie Intl   /   On uptrend       Go to Message
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sama sama innoval. no one seems to be interested in macq in this forum?

vested at 0.995.

i like this counter 'cos high divvy yield (~$85 per lot). Its book value is 1.01, FA target: 1.21. FYE in march.

additional info: analysts don't really like it 'cos they think it's too diversified, so difficult to predict FA value for it, unlike its fellow reits. But this to me only means that it has less concentration exposure (to only one/a few areas), value is more constant and less susceptible to volatile swings.

kinda like the SMRT of the reits/prop industry.

yep, it's building up. :)
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20-Jan-2007 10:18 Innovalues   /   Buy Potential       Go to Message
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Is no one in this counter? consistent uptrend since mid nov. and yah. can't do leading TA on it. i see this guy's movements by its wave patterns and MACD.

vested at 1.07.

FA forecast--one year target: 1.51.  
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20-Jan-2007 10:09 Chartered   /   CSM Q4 Results (26th Jan '07)       Go to Message
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hold your horses people....

giantlow, true that there are large vols of buys--some of them in thousands of lots, but watch your vol trades closely. they are preceded by sell lots of almost equal no, or larger. the closing at 17:05:08 gives bid of 2579k and ask of only 674k.

big time play on this counter. chartered is expected to post single digit decrease after its rivals in the field released similar bad results. could be a kneejerk sell down yesterday.

the thing is that its leading TA indicators are reading up? singaporegal, mind helping me confirm? A bit puzzled 'cos lag is reading sell, lead is reading consistent up.

watch this baby closely on monday. the bid/ask vols. if sells consistently happen, don't go in. But if the buying occurs in large vols, hehe, it's play time.

giantlow, 'BUY' rating on what EPS ratio, and what target? it'd be useful to convert to the s'pore context as a rough gauge.
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20-Jan-2007 09:57 Others   /   SHAREJUNCTION LUNAR NEW YEAR DINNER?       Go to Message
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yea singaporegal....prefer casual too...but if i were to try wearing jeans for CNY, the dirty looks from my mother would probably kill. haha.

hm, considering the site is free, it'd actually be more gracious of the members to pay for mr ngiam (any relation to a brandon???) and co...hm. mebbe he has a personal nick/account here, rather than 'admin'. wonder how to find....

hehe yes waterfalls, i click on the ads every now and then. :P
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20-Jan-2007 09:51 SPC   /   SPC       Go to Message
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x 0 		actually, i'd like to keep this stock for the long term, rather than short TA trading. as part of core holdings. should like to accumulate it if it drops further.
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20-Jan-2007 09:48 Others   /   Dow       Go to Message
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partly accurate, billywows...

Markets: Full Coverage
DJIA -2.40 12,565.53
NASDAQ +8.10 2,451.31
S&P 500 +4.13 1,430.50
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19-Jan-2007 17:42 Others   /   SHAREJUNCTION LUNAR NEW YEAR DINNER?       Go to Message
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sharejunction...if i havta pay for you, i'm not gonna use you. hmph. >o<

hehe ooh yea, i think singaporegal will be all sophistication and class. :)))))

lunar new year cannot lah! have to be with family. it's very formal. the ladies will kitted out in cheongsams or similar. either we're odd or we just love dressing up. mebbe both. haha.

ooh, if ahbear comes as a bear and bunbun comes as a bunnie it'd be sooo fun! *visions of huggable teddy bears and little poofy white bunnies* :)))) 
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19-Jan-2007 17:36 Others   /   The Shark and state of the market.       Go to Message
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ooh. a puzzle. i might be absolutely wrong but hey, where's the fun if you havta be right all the time. haha. mister newmoon, lemme see if i can put your words in plain english...or haha i'm reading the tea leaves upside down and it's all a joke *splat on elf's face haha*

(altho hehe nextdoor, yea, i agree he's high. :P)


1st two lines: the big boys are saying it's time to consider the factors controlling the market in the near future, which are

3rd line: oil and gold--these move in tandem, and so their decline (could weigh down market)

4th: all the scandals and cover up and Fed warnings and red herrings making market nervy. captured rings--the spate of M&As???

5th: prop stocks all the rage; US housing defying expectations and going up (with reason, or just sentiment?)

6th: no cut rates! we're all gonna go down! wheee!

haha ok now i sound like i'm high. haha.



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