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There are simply too much liquidities out there and stocks are at very attractive valuations.

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US markets' trade volume likely will be thin tonight given next monday will be a holiday for US. Happy Huat Huat Huat!!!

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Thanks for analysing the analyst's analysis.

cheongsl ( Date: 24-May-2013 07:43) Posted:

After reading this report, it really raise the following concern which is misleading to invester.

My key findings are as follows:

a) the bulk of the Q1-2013 loss came from its associate Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport Co - similar to its loss in Q1-2012 and was due primarily to fewer trains being delivered.
Concern: Why CSR (losses)/profits of an associate is consistence and profitable from 2010 to 2013Q1, but Midas have shown a bad to worst. Is there an unevenly distribution of the profit/losses and how midas is going to due with this. There is no addressing of this issue, if it is fewer trains delivery then CSR associate should also be in a losses which doesn't happen at all.

And the reason given for the Q1 2013 loss is not really the reason, if you compare with Q1 2012, you will discover it is the major increase in financial cost and administrative cost which increase by 40.9% and 27.1% that significantly dragged down the profitability of the company. In fact the Q1 2013 the loss due to associate is much less then Q1 2012. If this report was really a meet up with the management of Midas, then the management of Midas is avoiding the true, or they are unable to analyse their company data.

CSR	2010	2011	2012	2013Q1
CSR	CNY('000)	CNY('000)	CNY('000)	CNY('000)

Share of (losses)/ profits of an associate

611,794

668,034

540,954

119,358

Midas	2010	2011	2012	2013Q1
Midas	CNY('000)	CNY('000)	CNY('000)	CNY('000)

Share of (losses)/ profits of an associate

45,876

8,290

-5,732

-4,049

b) Midas has a healthy order book of more than RMB8bn of which RMB1.5bn is its own and another RMB7bn from its associate Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport Co. In 2013 alone, Midas has secured about RMB400mn in new orders while its associate has secured contracts of about RMB1bn.

Concern: is the order book healthy? RMB7bn from associate that have been reducing in profit from 2010 ~2011 and making a losses from 2012 onwards. Total 1.5bn order book from Midas, which is only around 1.5years of their revenue based on the fast few years. If 5month is almost pass and they have just secured RMB400mn in new orders then the substainability of the revenue is questionable.

c) A typical contract for Midas and its associates lasts about 24 months - so we can expect better revenue and profit in the coming quarters.

Concern: I don't think there should be much different in the contract length, why previous revenue generate loss, how can we expect future revenue to generate profit, that should be the question, this is really a general statement without basis. Unless Midas is a new company then the management can present it that the loss is due to the contract is not yet realise, but Midas have been in the market for so many years, the contract flow and revenue and profit is continouse one.

d) group gearing is now about 34% and should rise to just over 50% in 2013 as its completes its RMB600-800mn capex upgrade

Concern: My calculation of gearing ratio does not produce this result it is higher then 34% base on 2013 Q1, Debt ratio is 38%, Equity ratio is 62%, and Debt to Equity ratio is 61%, but the increase in gearing implies that more servicing of debt is required, irregardless of revenue. Thus this is really a bad news as most likely the financial statement will become more worst.

e) current utilisation is around 40% which gives Midas the much needed capacity to accept and deliver new high speed train orders as and when they are tendered out.

No comment, since investor will not have the chance to visit the factory to really investigate on the factory facilities. but 40% utilisation means that the fixed cost will need to continue to incure, and seems like they are dependend on HSR train tendering, which have delay by almost a year.

f) no issue with its receivables which are usually from the Rail and now Transport Ministries. No provisions are required and they expect that the aging of these will fall back below the 12 month level in 2013 now that the Ministries have been recapitalised.

Concern: If there is no issue with the receivables why from 2010 onwards the trade receivables have been increasing and currently at abnormal high. Midas is getting the money from CSR their main contractor, CSR then from the rail transport Ministries, and now should be railway corporation. Lets take a look at CSR trade receivable, it is also increasing significantly compare to revenue. CSR have also cater for the bad debt allocation which update half yearly, but I can't see any bad debt allocation from Midas, since like Midas is badly prepare for the worst.

Midas	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013Q1
Midas	CNY('000) *	CNY('000) *	CNY('000) *	CNY('000)	CNY('000)	CNY('000)	CNY('000)
Revenue	701,995	722,375	749,965	1,029,858	1,080,736	869,506	202,391

Trade receivables

200,120

337,365

274,670

511,951

697,626

1,007,627

1,076,080

CSR	2010	2011	2012	2013Q1
CSR	CNY('000)	CNY('000)	CNY('000)	CNY('000)
Revenue	64,908,900	80,710,800	90,456,242	19,795,500

Trade receivables

11,124,400

13,689,400

26,618,800

27,114,500

Bad Debt Allocation

572,352

682,664

943,241

g) China Zhongwang is not a direct competitor although its also in the aluminium extrusion business. In terms of capacity its about 20 times bigger than Midas with annual output of up to 1mn tonnes compared to 50,000 tonnes for Midas. Its trading at about 5-6 times PER according to Bloomberg. The initial euphoria surround ZhongWang has subsided and it would appear on valuation terms that its doesnt enjoy the same investor confidence as Midas.

Concern: China Zhongwang have many business of aluminium extrusion. But how can Midas classified it as not a direct competitor? China Zhongwang produce Train car body too, they are " IRIS" certified too. It is really a direct competitors. Have manage to search China Zhongwang annual report. Why China Zhongwang profit margins is improving and Midas is another way?

China Zhong Wang	FY2012 RMB'000	FY2011 RMB'000
Revenue	13,497,170	10,305,694

Profit for the year

1,806,783

1,105,027

Profit Margin

13.39%

10.72%

h) Midas like us.....continues to wait for the release of high speed train orders which are long overdue and behind schedule. The delay is linked to the formation of the new Ministry of Transport and also that new China President Xi Jinping is more concerned with tackling corruption which may in the short term slowdown its pump priming activities.

Concern: Depend on HSR train orders? HSR train order have been scrutinised in News paper and major news media in China last year on the over luxury expense. The news of HSR train tender was there since last year, and they are still cooking and dependend on the HSR train award?? The railway corporation top person, have already mention when he is still in railway ministry that the HSR train tender will not be call, as current capacity is enough.

Conclusion

My key conclusion is that there is no change in the reasons and rationale for recommending Midas which remains undervalued. The Q1-2013 results although reflecting a loss does not detract from its growing and more healthy order book which should start to kick-in in the second half of 2013.

Concern: How can analyse write a counter is undervalued, when the share price have double, and the performance is really getting from bad to worst year after year. This is really my concern with the way that financial analysis are presenting their finding, it either there is some motivation behind, or they are just incapable of doing the proper analysis. Both are dangerous to general investor.

paul1688 ( Date: 23-May-2013 22:27) Posted:

Written by Kevin Scully (NRA Capital) Wednesday, 22 May 2013 07:00

I HAD A good meeting with the management of Midas late last week.

My key findings are as follows:

a) the bulk of the Q1-2013 loss came from its associate Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport Co - similar to its loss in Q1-2012 and was due primarily to fewer trains being delivered.

b) Midas has a healthy order book of more than RMB8bn of which RMB1.5bn is its own and another RMB7bn from its associate Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport Co. In 2013 alone, Midas has secured about RMB400mn in new orders while its associate has secured contracts of about RMB1bn.

c) A typical contract for Midas and its associates lasts about 24 months - so we can expect better revenue and profit in the coming quarters.

d) group gearing is now about 34% and should rise to just over 50% in 2013 as its completes its RMB600-800mn capex upgrade

e) current utilisation is around 40% which gives Midas the much needed capacity to accept and deliver new high speed train orders as and when they are tendered out.

f) no issue with its receivables which are usually from the Rail and now Transport Ministries. No provisions are required and they expect that the aging of these will fall back below the 12 month level in 2013 now that the Ministries have been recapitalised.

g) China Zhongwang is not a direct competitor although its also in the aluminium extrusion business. In terms of capacity its about 20 times bigger than Midas with annual output of up to 1mn tonnes compared to 50,000 tonnes for Midas. Its trading at about 5-6 times PER according to Bloomberg. The initial euphoria surround ZhongWang has subsided and it would appear on valuation terms that its doesnt enjoy the same investor confidence as Midas.

h) Midas like us.....continues to wait for the release of high speed train orders which are long overdue and behind schedule. The delay is linked to the formation of the new Ministry of Transport and also that new China President Xi Jinping is more concerned with tackling corruption which may in the short term slowdown its pump priming activities.

Conclusion

My key conclusion is that there is no change in the reasons and rationale for recommending Midas which remains undervalued. The Q1-2013 results although reflecting a loss does not detract from its growing and more healthy order book which should start to kick-in in the second half of 2013.

I still like the stock and see this weakness as a good medium term buying opportunity. Remains as a Stock Pick.

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I think that teeth53 is very hardworking. Everytime post many info for us to read though sometimes i don't know what he is talking about. But is the effort that counts. Keep posting, teeth53!

GorgeousOng ( Date: 24-May-2013 08:30) Posted:

Hi teeth53, thinking to address you uncle.( someone address you uncle before)....but think.. think ..you can not be older than me right? I am 80 n you????heheee
I have observed that recently uncle become young man ...so youthful n vibrant....hahaaa wish you have a good rest n monday cheong arh!!!

teeth53 ( Date: 24-May-2013 00:01) Posted:

Wishes all players and forumers here in SJ. A Happi Vesak day.

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Markets will resume their climb after this week.

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New Registry Data Confirms Safety of BioMatrix™ DES Family in Over 5000 Patients

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The downturn in commodity markets has prompted some energy and mining companies to defer certain projects.

Ausgroup may run out of work within the year as its current order book of A$215 million will last no more than two quarters.

Earnings comcerns are likely to dominate the relisting revaluation potential.

The way the things are developing, expect Ausgroup to dive into the red this quarter.

Listing in ASX during the downturn in commodity markets which has prompted some energy and mining companies to defer certain projects may not be a good idea for Ausgroup.

The reception may be lukewarm.

Bumpy road ahead for Ausgroup for now.

Investors interested in buying may want to consider carefully.

The RTO story does not bode well for the share price so far.

Even DMG has made a drastic downgrade to Ausgroup's target price.

Other analysts don't even bother to give coverage on Ausgroup.

AusGroup has been badly affected by the hold ups in awarding work at North West liquefied natural gas projects and revenue dropped as bidding for scaffolding, insulation and painting work at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone projects had not yet materialised into contracts.

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US markets steady lar!

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Today only 214 lots shorted...definitely not a good sign...

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Precisely. Those sell-downs are genuine sell-downs. They are investors dumping the shares.

halleluyah ( Date: 21-May-2013 16:28) Posted:

Yes u r right bro....i do checked it yesterday. Like tt how to go up if there's nt much to cover back.

Peter_Pan ( Date: 21-May-2013 16:08) Posted:

The scary part is that the short-sales volume is not that much...

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Goldman Sachs lifts S& P 500 target 5% for 2013

SPX

MADRID (MarketWatch) -- The Standard & Poor's 500 index SPX -0.07% will rise 5% from current levels to reach 1,750 by the end of this year, said Goldman Sachs in a research note dated May 20. A team of strategists led by David J. Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist, said the index will " advance by 9% to 1,900 in 2014, and climb by 10% to 2,100 in 2015." The 2013 return implies a year-end price/earnings ratio of 15 times, which is a one mutiple-point premium to Goldman's fair-value estimate. Improved economic growth, rising dividends -- Goldman expects those dividends to gain 30% between 2013 and 2015 -- and potentially low sustained interest rates are all contributors to the higher S& P 500 forecasts. If interest rates stay low despite better growth then upside to those S& P 500 targets could be bigger than they are currently forecasting, said Kostin.

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The scary part is that the short-sales volume is not that much...

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0.39 may break with high volume selldown.

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More sellers are beginning to come out now..

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Is going to get very ugly.

Peter_Pan ( Date: 21-May-2013 14:18) Posted:

The downturn in commodity markets has prompted some energy and mining companies to defer certain projects.

Ausgroup may run out of work within the year as its current order book of A$215 million will last no more than two quarters.

Earnings comcerns are likely to dominate the relisting revaluation potential.

The way the things are developing, expect Ausgroup to dive into the red this quarter.

Listing in ASX during the downturn in commodity markets which has prompted some energy and mining companies to defer certain projects may not be a good idea for Ausgroup.

The reception may be lukewarm.

Bumpy road ahead for Ausgroup for now.

Investors interested in buying may want to consider carefully.

The RTO story does not bode well for the share price so far.

Even DMG has made a drastic downgrade to Ausgroup's target price.

Other analysts don't even bother to give coverage on Ausgroup.

AusGroup has been badly affected by the hold ups in awarding work at North West liquefied natural gas projects and revenue dropped as bidding for scaffolding, insulation and painting work at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone projects had not yet materialised into contracts.

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Pending Ben's minutes tonight, STI may helicopter tomorrow.

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The downturn in commodity markets has prompted some energy and mining companies to defer certain projects.

Ausgroup may run out of work within the year as its current order book of A$215 million will last no more than two quarters.

Earnings comcerns are likely to dominate the relisting revaluation potential.

The way the things are developing, expect Ausgroup to dive into the red this quarter.

Listing in ASX during the downturn in commodity markets which has prompted some energy and mining companies to defer certain projects may not be a good idea for Ausgroup.

The reception may be lukewarm.

Bumpy road ahead for Ausgroup for now.

Investors interested in buying may want to consider carefully.

The RTO story does not bode well for the share price so far.

Even DMG has made a drastic downgrade to Ausgroup's target price.

Other analysts don't even bother to give coverage on Ausgroup.

AusGroup has been badly affected by the hold ups in awarding work at North West liquefied natural gas projects and revenue dropped as bidding for scaffolding, insulation and painting work at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone projects had not yet materialised into contracts.

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Even the RTO is not appealing at all.

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Ausgroup is running out of revenue...can only tahan for two quarters at most...this quarter is very likely to be making loss.

luketoh ( Date: 21-May-2013 13:25) Posted:

Never trust ANAL Lis

Peter_Pan ( Date: 21-May-2013 13:08) Posted:

DMG's target price of 0.35 is very likely to be hit.

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DMG's target price of 0.35 is very likely to be hit.