Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 10-Sep-2008 18:13 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hot off wire: possible buyout of Lehman. 15 billion. fyi only |
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| 10-Sep-2008 16:50 |
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Forex Junction
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cool. thanks trader88. i shall go experiment. hehe. small elves need small pets. 
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| 10-Sep-2008 16:47 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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trader88, solly, american phrase (a lot of my friends are overseas now). n00bs = newbies. (noobs, as you'd pronounce it). how's the yl ppl doing? was away from comp for a while there. dammit, i shd have put the s/l as range instead of fixed px! my bad there. harhar, smartbear. what you laughing at. :P yah. masochist, to be trading in this kind of market. haha. that's why risk mgmt impt. small % for punts, no prob. if you lose, it's just small change. if can't afford to play, stay out. wiser to go longterm.
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| 10-Sep-2008 15:12 |
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Forex Junction
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sorry, what's ATR? 
cool, your mtd's very dif from mine! new strat to learn, wheee!  |
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| 10-Sep-2008 15:05 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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o/r possible trade to try: NOL. buy 203-204. s/l 195. target 212-218. i like 215. pls note: all these are rapid trades, they are HIGH RISK. so you need to be on screen to watch and throw the moment it ramps or dives. The most impt is the stop loss. MAKE SURE you can stomach it first before you decide to risk a trade. i bear no liability for your loss/gain. rem that this is live. Rapids move fast. |
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| 10-Sep-2008 14:58 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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rapid trade for n00bs to try if interested (pls make sure you can stomach the stop loss first): yanlord. buy 1.38 or less (today). direct if you dare. s/l 1.32. target 145 (modest end of the estimate) trade shd run in 5 days or less. pls do NOT contra tho. make sure you got enough $$ to last the length. caveat applies. live trading. |
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| 10-Sep-2008 14:49 |
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Forex Junction
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hullo, thanks for the reply, singaporegal. ahaha, yuppers, ipunter got it right. i'm a chicken. :P jokes aside: because what i play are the ranges (rather than trending markets), so i currently function ok with stops of 20-30 pips. i should note that my time frames are short too. most trades don't last past a couple of hours. it's been profitable enough... eg, i just took abt 60 pips on the EJ pair. it does however, require constant watching. So was wondering what stops are needed to play trending markets. And trailing stops? advice from any forex experts would be appreciated. thanks! :) |
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| 10-Sep-2008 14:09 |
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Forex Junction
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hi singaporegal, if you play trending markets, does this mean your stop losses tend to be larger? apparently the NZ rate cut is cfmed (internal talk). oil too. supporting 100. |
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| 10-Sep-2008 12:14 |
SPC
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SPC
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fyi only. OPEC has an unspoken agreement to keep oil lowest US$100 per barrel. because a lot of hedge funds and banks lost money in subprime, so they had shifted to oil and commods. shorted it 130s-140s while calling for 200s. And then longed from abt this range (while they're calling for 80s and 90s). huge positions. So if oil drops below a critical level, funds will be forced to take loss and unwind, which is when the oil and CPO counters will crash. methinks they are too desperate to let that happen tho. |
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| 10-Sep-2008 12:06 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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thankee baseer.
and hehe, stupidfool and livermore. good discussion. believe the n00bs would have learnt quite a bit. perhaps to tie it all together: both their approaches can be applied with success. It all really depends on your own preference. The one thing NOT to do though, is to abandon your strat halfway and follow another. If at the outstart you have your entire plan clear (including escape and contingency plans), then it shouldn't be causing indecision or panic. This is perhaps why reading forums can be very unsettling: you may have made up your mind. but one person says another thing. A second, a third. You start to doubt yourself. And then you sell/buy. And regret it. The main thing always is to have your own mind; some people, admittedly, will have vested interests in calling for buy/sell on an open forum. But, esp with regards to technical advice: you need to know first if the person issuing it is a longterm player, or a rapid trader, or whatever. If you're a longterm player, and you follow a rapid trader's advice, you're more than likely to get utterly confused. cheers! |
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| 10-Sep-2008 11:59 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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uic
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an SJ community service fyi. ....
Support levels for UIC: using 3 year charts. 218-223. 208-213. 181-184. Note that UIC tends to have gaps in its price since it's usually thinly traded, as majority is cornered. So volatile movements can be expected when retailers panic (dc16888, there's your ans). O/w, if you look at the data, the institutions in this aren't selling at all. Except for MS who's dunno-doing-what. (-_-")..... You can be sure tho that GKW, esp his rival, will wait in this climate to buy rather than snap it up fervently. This is a buyer's market. |
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| 10-Sep-2008 01:21 |
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http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/09/09/lehman-in-free-fall-again/ --the other macro. LEH currently trading 9.3, down 4.85 for the day. thanks for the wishes leeyaolong. :) and ah, livermore, ok. i had the impression it was all in by 80c. always good to have spare bullets and room to maneouvre. 
lets see if lehman has any effect on the markets tmrw. nites 
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| 09-Sep-2008 22:55 |
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haha, me eez letting you two talk on. believe it's illuminating for others to see the different styles and strats that can be adopted, both with success, in the market. 
eh, livermore: "For some of the stocks that have fallen until about 80c, how much more can they go down?" That is a very dangerous question. If it falls to 40c, it's a 50% loss, remember that. hehe. ok, cheers, lemme enjoy the last hours of my bd. hehe. |
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| 09-Sep-2008 14:56 |
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on market bottoming: generally, a major significant event has to occur before we can say that a market has bottomed (the earliest sign). That has to do with macros and psychology more than TA charts. We had it with the fannie mae and freddie mac (ticker abbr: FNM and FRE) takeover. There's one more thing though: Lehman Brothers. So arbitrarily, I'd say this: If Lehman Brothers can find a buyer--KDB or otherwise--then i daresay that market will more or less stabilise. ie, trend would then change to sideways with bias for up. Up would occur if and when you find green vol days are > red vol days. (credit to CWQuah for this. :) ) If Lehman can't find a buyer though, then it's status quo, since it's one good news, one bad news. But direction will continue in its same way: rangebound downward. Auxillary event to watch for is Hurricane Ike. Because its direction is towards the Gulf of Mexico. If it ravages there and destroys the oil production/refineries there, you can expect a sudden spike in oil/commods/gold, and a sudden down in markets. All this is til, as Newtonian physics go, "Net external force acts to change the direction of motion." To predict would be folly. We simply let the market show us its direction. --------- HLJHLJ, comments later; i need to read their ARs. going out now, cheers! |
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| 09-Sep-2008 12:52 |
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MA crosses can be used as well. Note that they are lag indicators though. ie, they move after the share price moves. The advantage is that it gives a more 'guaranteed' signal (assuming it's not a false breakout). The disadvantage is that there may be some distance between the lowest point, and the point at which the MA gives a buy signal. No indicator is either good or bad per se though. All have their strengths and flaws. It is how you apply them based on your needs and time frame. MAcrosses are excellent for longterm players, with a 3-5year time frame, for instance. The lag in this case is a positive factor, since yes, you may buy higher, but you literally buy the assurance that it is a real uptrend. And if your timeframe is 3-5 years, really, why quibble over 10c? Your dividend yield across the years will more than cover that already. MA however, would not be good for rapid trades. Since it's too slow. And that's just it: no indicator is good or bad. It's all in application. n00bs would do well to master a range of indicators, then apply them as fit, rather than "chuck all indicators, they're useless". That they've been around for so long must show something, isn't it. Who's Robin Ho?
Generally tho, i'd advise newbies to be wary of any "turn $1,000 into $100,000 in three weeks!" adverts. As we laugh about in the trading circles: "Sure, I can double your account in a week....but only after I bust five others." 
Risk and reward are always proportionate. To achieve such high returns, it entails high risk. Ie, one is either hero or zero. Do i do high risk trades myself? Yes. The returns are fast, the returns are big. But I do one other thing, which they won't tell you about: money management. The other thing they do not tell you: you can lose equally fast, equally big. Just ask any local BB who's dying after the foreigners bled them dry. Cosco, yzj, NOL, Straits Asia, STX PO. All the blues, not to mention the pennies. You think they still have profits from the last bull run? And this is exactly it. People always brag about the returns, they tell you "sure-win". but they will never tell you about the loss, or chance of loss. Those of you who are holding onto "sure win" duds now should know exactly what i mean. In the market, trend is everything. What does it say then, that after the boom and bust of so many cycles in the past century, after all these "turn 1,000 into 100,000 in 3 weeks" traders have come and gone, the only one remaining is Warren Buffett and his principle of value investment? A 40 year consistent track record. The market is no place for fairy tales. Anything that sounds too good to be true, is probably just that. Note: I know what i'm saying probably sounds like a damn wet blanket, and very unsexy and uncool. But I can also bet you that i'm one of the few who'd actually call it as it is, rather than airbrush the truth to high gloss and no substance. |
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| 08-Sep-2008 23:27 |
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the ETF is a low vol counter. Generally, if you wish to trade, it must be a liquid counter. For the ETF: If you wish to apply TA, you need to use channels and S/R levels. Williams and BUSD for rapid trades; the rest of the indicators won't really apply. fyi, long term supports pegged at 2.53 and 2.31. Actually, if you're buying the ETF, you are likely looking at very longterm: 1-3 year horizon. If your intention was to get something for a fast punt, you may like to consider individual counters instead. Since by its nature, the ETF is made up of a basket of stocks, ie, for the ETF to really go up, ALL the stocks in the dif sectors have to go up. In a bear market, where the BBs are rotating/churning and moving fast, it's quite hard to expect an ETF to go up. Unless you bought in that many quantities of course. If your buy px is not far from here, a cut may be a better option, actually....conserve capital. if you can't bear to cut, consider getting some STI put warrants instead. trade a small amount regularly (puts + calls = strangles), in order to hedge your position/recoup capital. Trading is aggressive by nature. What you can do tho, is to control the risk exposure by playing small and running fast. choice of counter matters too. Please don't practice trading on something like STX PO or StA, sure become like this: 
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| 08-Sep-2008 22:36 |
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"Learning from books or courses is totally different from actual practice. Even trading with a demo account can be very different from trading with real money. Trading successfully just a few counters might just be too small a sample size to determine long term success. Moreover, psychologically trading with small capital is very different from trading with big capital. But with his knowledge, I must say he has the potential to excel in trading in the long run, if he sticks to his plan with no emotions attached." ---- Agree with trader88 on all the above. The main difference is in psychology. Most people if you ask them, they'll tell you they can *stomach losses*. but the moment their counter dips, they'd panic. And there's one more thing too: often, people who've made consecutive winning trades tend to start getting arrogant: they think their method works, their method's the best, they're infallible. And that, usually, is when the market takes them out. A few trades isn't an indicator of success, to me. It could very well just have been luck: the way in the bull run last year, practically every tom, dick or harry made money. longterm record is more important. I do concur with trader88 tho, that your friend is probably on the right track. :) eh, desire, i said rapid trades. (ie, intraday to <5day trade). If your view is longterm, you should be looking to buy on dip instead. It all depends on what you're holding tho. and if you have spare cash to back it up. if you have some duds, it may be wiser to cut, so that you can buy in cheaper. i really won't hold much hope for an election rally....i think more likely a range bound phenomenon. 2800 is critical to break, it becomes a very strong resistance now. |
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| 08-Sep-2008 18:14 |
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Dead cat bounces
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bwah, if they give you a bad post tick, i'll give you a good post tick in return. concur, singaporegal. unless proven otherwise, people should not be lulled into taking a rally as anything other than shortterm. must admit, it is quite a relief tho.
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| 08-Sep-2008 17:37 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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heehee, no lah. i was post 8888 on this thread at 1657 hr. i'm a pantang kantang. sorry.  .
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| 08-Sep-2008 17:34 |
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anyhow, on a more serious note: updates on today's market: for rapid trades, your entry should have been on friday. i gave a hint that it was controlled accumulation on the blues. so your exit is today or tomorrow, wed latest, since i expect the DJIA to be up at least 200 pts tonight, which should give a filip to our poor STI. but for longterm holders tho, do NOT in any circumstances be tempted to buy from today to wed. Basic logic: you do NOT buy on an up day. You buy on a down day. Traders lose nothing if they lock in 'too fast'--since really, 'too fast' is said with the benefit of hindsight. You can always take advantage of the dips to go long again. Longterm holders lose nothing by going slowly. Consistency is the key. Have a plan and stick to it. If you need to go by feelings: when you're feeling totally crappy and lost and wanna sell out everything and just never look at the market again, that is when you should be buying. Do not view a rally as any more than shortterm unless proven otherwise. The charts will show bottoming. There is wisdom in waiting for the signal, then moving. And if this rally should somehow last til the US elections (tho i think Ike may cause some disturbance): just when you think it's up and all's sunshine and everyone is getting lulled, that is when you sell. note: STE--ML and MS changed hands on it at its peak today (~2.75-2.77). So i should expect some further upside tomorrow, cap at 2.92 max. methinks 2.86 tho. |
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