Latest Posts By elfinchilde
- Elite
About elfinchilde
|
|
| 21-Feb-2007 18:31 |
Sembcorp Ind
/
FA and TA
 Go to Message
|
 x 0
 x 0
|
not sure when the actual report was given, but it's in the analyst report sent to me by my broker, dated today. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 18:06 |
Sembcorp Ind
/
FA and TA
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
eep. PE ratio seems high, esp since foward is being used already. looks as tho it's fully valued? if we were to use your figures: assume a simple average gives 'fair value' at 5.55. Take lower end for PE of 22x = 5.28. tech: if we take abt june 13th to dec 15 as 1st wave, then fibo gives next target at 5.3. sporeguy...would like your opinion on support/resistant level? the following from DBSVB: SembCorp Industries Marine will drive earnings in 2007 Ø Story: FY06 results were higher than our estimates due to higher contribution from 'Others' segment as a result of better income from industrial parks and land sales. The key utilities division was in line with our forecast. Ø Point:Net profit, ex EI, rose 36% to S$347m led by Marine (+76% to S$129m) and Utilities ex SMOE (+18% to S$201m). Ø Relevance:We expect SembCorp Marine a deliver another strong performance in FY07, underpinned by its record order book of S$7.1bn and six jackups that will be delivered this year. Utilities will continue on its stable growth path. SCI's target price revised to S$5.15 taking into account the higher target price for SMM (to S$4.50 from S$4.08) . Our target price for SCI is S$5.15. Maintain Hold. ---------- all in all, it dovetails to btwn 5.15 to 5.3 as estimated target? |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 17:39 |
Allgreen
/
Allgreen
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
eep, godpa, i still maintain that ppl MUST make their own buy/sell calls.... having 'followers' can be scary, since no one is ever 100% right on the market. and i mean, make $$ no prob, but if lose *touch wood*, likely to get blamed. :( don't want that leh....i'm just sharing what limited info i know. so pls ah ppl....make your own minds up....i'm just one opinion only! bunnie, you tell BB movement from the actual buy up sell down time/vol/price data that you can get from poems (for instance). eg, 16:39:20: $1.68, 20 lots, buy up. 16:38:19: $1.68, 30 lots, sell down etcetc. i don't know what UOBKH provides so can't tell ya there..what you need is the buy up sell down (abbreviated: BU/SD) Need to make judgement calls at times. Large lots are easily spotted: like for AG, the discrete lots btwn 1632 and 1638 hrs @ 282, 78, 50, 486 and 113 lots resp. confirmed institutional buying--common sense: how many man on the street retailers can buy AG 200 lots (the ave of the 5 nos above) at one go? the difficulty is when they split their lots up. How you can roughly estimate is if the lots are spaced less than a minute apart, and are even sized, eg,: 10 lots at 16:15:21 buy up, 20 lots 16:51:30 buy up, 10 lots 16:51:35 buy up. these are likely to be one trade. i.e, 50 lots. esp if they're traded at one price. sometimes give and take: you can estimate one wrongly but another will be right. they're rough figures, but it gives a gauge. that's why i put the phrase "insti/likely insti BU/SD". alt you can just tot up all the buy and sell vols resp, and count ave lot size. if buyers outweigh sellers, and lot size bigger for buyers, it's a hint of buy. might have white noise from retailers tho, esp for punting counters like genting and SC a while back, which can be misleading. one last thing: BBs like to move btwen 1130 am to 1215, and again from 1630 hrs to close. (you can see this from AG's data today). esp at early stages of accumulation. this is perhaps to minimize the chances of retailers interfering with them i guess... |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 17:23 |
Entertainment
/
Fellowship of the Shares
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
godpa, i meant in the case of writeoff years (exceptional gain) vs years with no writeoffs: if it is based on net profit, to the investor, it would appear as tho divvy drops from the first case to the latter? not sure...i just see via divvy yield for my divvy shares.... china and india buying uranium. that likely means nuclear weapons, in direct contravention of the BWC pact that was signed. o_0 should buy, really, godpa. China and india are looking to build nuclear capability. they'll buy from whatever source they can. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 17:15 |
Allgreen
/
Allgreen
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
ok peeps, final data for AG today: insti/likely insti BU/SD: BU: 1956 lots via 22 buyers, ave size 88 lots. SD: 399 lots via 10 sellers, ave size 40 lots. The above excludes the final trade of 144 lots that is not shown as bu/sd. last traded price: 1.72. beautifully done. :) |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 17:04 |
Sembcorp Ind
/
FA and TA
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
shplayer...possible. that's why i said not sure if depressing or distributing. can always wait a couple more days and see. don't have last week's data, which in any case is likely to be skewed 'cos of CNY break.... what's the FA fair target for sembcorp? i know semb mar target is 4.5. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 16:57 |
Entertainment
/
Fellowship of the Shares
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
yepyep da gege, that's why i like macq. appears* to be one of the cleanest mgmt i've seen. i prefer it to be on cash flow anyway, this way you get less yes, but it's stable. since anyway, you don't play macq as a TA trade....like i said, it's a singpost. can wait for march collect 4c dividend liao. (i use appears since you never really trust any BB in the investing world. keke.) |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 16:43 |
Allgreen
/
Allgreen
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
whee, l_tan888, are you with me? the BBs are super buying this counter now. btwn 1632 and 1634 hrs alone got three big buys at 282, 78 and 50 lots resp. 1638 hr got two large buys spaced 1 sec apart at 486 and 113 lots resp. keke. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 16:35 |
Entertainment
/
Fellowship of the Shares
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
hm yea. i like macq 'cos it has comms and transport infrastructure amongst its holdings: these are some of the sectors forecasted to do well for this year and the next in asia at least. fyi, a lot of analysts don't like macq 'cos they say it's too diversified. i like it tho. parent co--as geojam has pointed out--has sterling mgmt and consistent results; likely to carry same mgmt to this offshoot. Excellent mgmt team that has posted consistent profits yoy. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 16:30 |
Allgreen
/
Allgreen
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
tech update for the vested: very strong buying thus far. buyers outweigh sellers abt 2.6 to 1. institutions starting to come into play. Insti/likely insti BU/SD data as follows, accurate up to 1617 hrs: BU: 872 lots via 15 buyers, ave lot size 58. SD: 315 lots via 7 sellers, ave lot size 45. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 16:12 |
Entertainment
/
Fellowship of the Shares
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
sorry godpa, cityspring's an IPO, so out of my trading radar for the next 6 mths at least. what infrastructure is it in specifically? roads, water works or what? they hived off from hyflux... macqinf is the singpost of the global equity world in terms of stability. aussie based co if i'm not mistaken. they own props and warehouses around the globe, notably, looking to expand asian holdings. so there's room for growth there. *kaching* divvy yield at approx 8%. incidentally godpa, for portfolio, macqinf would have been my 'fixed deposit' counter for you. for stable growth to balance the riskier trades. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 16:05 |
Sembcorp Ind
/
FA and TA
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
shplayer, TA-wise: co has been down 3 days in a row, longer view gives a down since 6th feb. AD going up/stable tho, so there's divergence. RSI and williams actually dropping, MAxover crossing sell signal soon, using 3 and 10 day. actual BU/SD data: instit/likely insti plays: buy up: 2162 lots via 35 buyers, ave size = 62 lots. sell down: 1388 via 20 sellers, ave size = 69 lots. a lot of institutional play: sell down vol has one lot thrown at 200, buy up has up to 150 lots at one go. i'm not sure if they're depressing or distributing actually....is there any news on this counter? |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 15:26 |
Celestial
/
worth going in
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
hey pet, theoretically, fibo gives a sell at abt 1.84. my advise is to monitor and follow trend tho. when's your contra period up anyway? try not to get too distracted by intraday movements... stock appears to be on an uptrend. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 15:02 |
Celestial
/
worth going in
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
pet. missy here free today so can keep eye on celestial for you... tech data so far: institution/likely institutional plays: buy vol 2366 lots via 21 buyers, ave size 112 lots. sell vol: 608 lots via 10 sellers, ave size 61 lots. so clear sign of institutional buying. sit tight. :) |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 14:49 |
Entertainment
/
Fellowship of the Shares
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
keke, shplayer, we both just joking lah. elves and bunnies like to play. we just make a lot of noise, so don't take it to heart! no offence ah. keke. SMB's a good buy. and yep. i'm playing one last time before correction comes. :) |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 13:58 |
Ho Bee Land
/
Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
tech update on HB for those vested: Institutional play. Both retail and institutional punting HB today. Very strong buy AND sell vols. For morning session, stands at: 1047 lots bought via 57 buyers, 1007 lots sold via 65 sellers. Ave lot size = 18 vs 15 (buyers vs sellers). But for large lots (defined as above 20lots): note up to 170 lots thrown at one time. =>clear sign of institutional play. Buy up is an auspicious 888lots by 21 buyers (ave = 42), sell down = 720 lots via 15 sellers. (ave = 48). So trend likely indeterminate. appears as though ppl are contra-ing and some shortists with T+30 in action... |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 13:51 |
Allgreen
/
Allgreen
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
hm, l_tan888, i can't tell you what to do, since it has to be your own call... but for me, i'm playing AG as a short trade. Currently looking to out friday, or monday when its results are out. all depends on the trend tho. In actual technical terms: If its results are going to be spectacular, you'll see run up tmrw and friday with little/no late afternoon selling, as BBs always get the new first. that's your cue that monday and aft likely to go up still (ie, good results expected).But if friday late afternoon/mon morning you start to see dumping, that's your cue to run too. Track the large buy/sell vols. Does anyone know what time AG releases its results? BBs starting to play (think they were in HB this morning and starting to shift attention now...), so let's see what they do. :) for today, good to sit and wait, perhaps. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 13:23 |
Allgreen
/
Allgreen
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
hm, and just a thought to add on to l_tan888's post.... Track the BB's movements via actual price/vol charts. Follow what they do, not what they say. and keke, most props and banks are way over the analysts' price targets now really. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 13:20 |
Allgreen
/
Allgreen
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
hullo jasjasjas.... you can sell whenever you think profit is enough, really. :) just some tech updates for this counter: BBs are starting to play. One buy order of 115 lots just in at ~11.57 am today. Very strong buying vol. Even excluding the 115 lots, buyers outweigh sellers abt 2 to 1. Elf vested at 1.68. Make your own calls, people! And good luck whichever way. :) |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| 21-Feb-2007 13:14 |
Entertainment
/
Fellowship of the Shares
Go to Message
|
|
x 0
x 0
|
keke, bunnie pet, good luck with indofood, i certainly hope i'm wrong on that counter for your sake. :)))) and ya, shplayer, no jokes on my bunnie's expense, i'll kick anyone who dares to! *hiyah!* :P yep at home. shiok man. :) Not really interested in HB...it's up 'cos of news that revised target is 1.8, which at its current price gives limited upside. i don't like sudden spurts anyway...they're too volatile and require really close monitoring, which i can do today but not tomorrow or days after at work. So no go for practical reasons. plus, can't be too greedy. Normally i'll id quite a few counters, then i'll force a judgement call to buy only a few--one or two, at most three at one time. Will buy based on what i think has the most upside potential. can't overstretch my funds. |
| Good Post Bad Post | |
| First < Newer 2241-2260 of 2759 Older> Last |