Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 14-Sep-2008 17:31 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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with regards to the livermore/stupidfool debate: trading or investing, there's no one wrong way, one right way. lots of traders have made it; lots have failed. lots of investors have made it, lots have failed. what is needed is the consistent application of the chosen strategy. Evidence in the end is borne out by the portfolio. Hard dollars and cents. the rest is merely rhetorical debate. A real winner with his/her own strat will not feel the need to "defend" his/her method in public, or to argue about it. Quite simply: if it works, it works. Far better then to just lay it out for others to see, and let them tweak as suitable, adapt as necessary to their OWN styles. I hold only one belief: no one method is superior to the next. It all depends on the person, the personality, and the right application of the method. As a wise friend once taught me, "Just because the ground isn't good for one kind of flower, doesn't mean it's bad for all flowers." Cheers! |
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| 14-Sep-2008 17:23 |
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hm. for the record, Jim Rogers is actually not highly regarded in the trading markets. He made notable bad decisions including the decision to hold on and further buy china, to buy the USD (when it tanked versus the Euro) and to long commods (when it was at the peak). ------------------ o/w: headsup. rumor or not, forewarned is forearmed: Wild USD ride, not for the faint of heart
A PDF version of this report with graphs is available for free at the Forex Datasource Blog: http://www.forexdatasource.com/Blog/fxblog.aspx EURO Report Current Environment The hasty nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac last weekend was initially well received, but investor fear is back and threatens to unravel USD gains of recent weeks. There are short term factors lending support to the euro, such as crude oil price rises (Hurricane Ike and surprise OPEC production cuts). Then there are more serious fears the market is considering. The rapid rise of US unemployment on Sep 5 along with weak US retail sales last week raise fears that a consumer recession is underway, something that could have longer and deeper implications than recent recessions caused by monetary policy tightening. This time around the Fed and the US Treasury have apparently exhausted measures to solve multiple crises. A deep recession could lead to many banks and companies failing. Besides Lehman, the market is already starting to assume that Merrill Lynch and insurance giant AIG will be next. There are, however, not many strong companies able and willing to purchase these firms. ----------------- cheers! |
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| 13-Sep-2008 15:53 |
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Where to put money if market is like this .....
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where to put money. haha. elfin picks: 1) Property. I personally like Thailand. It's an underwatched market; smart money is going into it. Political trouble only gives potential for depressed prices to buy, and better potential rentals. Check out the sansiri group. 2) Forex. USD is set to appreciate to S$ to at least 1.45. If you'd locked in the low of 1.32, you're on profit already. (leaving aside forex trading). |
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| 13-Sep-2008 15:38 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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to give a perspective on the Mr Choo article: (pls n00bs don't get excited and rush to open forex accounts; it takes technical skills to scalp forex). it may sound impossible but it isn't. It's just perhaps the singaporean employee mentality, that not to have a job = loser. When in reality, if you're skilled, you don't need to hold a regular job. 10,000 a month = 2.5k a week. ie, approx 200 pips on one standard lot. Slightly less actually. So you just need 50 pips 4x a week, that is all. Given that most pairs move by 100-200 pips in a day, those in forex will agree it's manageable. and i'll personally add that given current stock market climates, where the risk/reward is at best 1: 1, forex becomes much more attractive, where a risk/reward can be 2: 5, or higher. (eg, if you play the euro/yen pair, a reasonable 40 pip stop loss and 120 pip profit target is manageable on a daily basis). |
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| 13-Sep-2008 15:31 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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methinks it all depends on the net position of the portfolio at the end of the day. Sometimes, if you have cash, buying in deep returns far better than cutting loss, especially if the stock is already at a bottom/near bottoming. It all depends on method, what you're prepared for. Can't go chasing after all the colourful balloons and neglect the one in your hand. The final aim should determine everything. generally, i agree though: an early stop loss is much better than a DCA. -------------------------- So what is meant by the final aim: ie, basic money management: 1) How much do you need to make for retirement? The quantum sum and the no: of years. 2) Hence, how much must you make every year/month? 3) From there: how much risk do you need to take? And from the above three questions, one outlines a portfolio: allocation, strategy, targeted returns, aims. Try it. For those of you intending to be serious investors for the long run: Don't go for "kopi money" and neglect the big picture. ie, never take unnecessary risk. What is unnecessary? Easy: question for yourself, what is a need, what is a want? Do you want that couple of 100s that can be potentially scalped daily? Sure. We could always do with more money. But, in light of a longterm folio and longterm aims, do you need that couple of hundreds, do you need to take that additional risk, such that you miss the chance of buying your longterm counter, being low in cash and stuck in too many impulsive 'punts'? Because really, how many retailers out there are excellent, consistent day traders? Be realistic, be honest. The answer to the final two questions above determines whether or not you take the plunge each and every time.
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| 13-Sep-2008 15:07 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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i passed by a bank yesterday. they give computer terminals for people to watch their markets. looking at the group of old retirees staring at the screen, with their notebooks beside them, can only say that i felt sorry for them. all clutching at losses. and the irksome thing is this: yes, it's partly their fault, greed for getting into "hot" stocks. but can one blame a child for reaching out for a sweet, when he's not been told that there are wolves around? just thinking: if they knew the truth of the market place, isn't that better. But i guess. that's the pecking order of the market place. Retailers are bottom-feeders. the BBs need to keep them dumb, keep them stupid. Because only then can they win. To follow the trend is to follow the global flow of money. Just speaking for Asian equities alone now: So Freddie and Fannie are bought and sold out. Lehman has collapsed. Oil and gold are collapsing. What are we to make of all this? In the backrooms of power, kingmakers decide where the money will go. There are princelings, there are kings, and then there are kingmakers. Who ultimately controls and possesses the most money? The near-sudden collapse of the Euro, the collapse of oil and gold are no coincidence. I've been watching it since July. Federal intervention has its marks all over. And only the wilest of the banking institutions managed to ride with the trend. Quite simply it is this: governments are kingmakers. the foreign BBs--hedge funds and legit banks--are kings. the local BBs are princelings. To shore up the all important US economy, it is necessary that the USD strengthens, it is necessary that oil and gold goes down. So government acts against the BBs. Where will oil fall to? As i posted earlier before: Hedge funds have taken massive longs on commodities, to make up for subprime losses. What they did not count on was government selling them out. When--at its peak--96% of funds have taken longs, if you have the funds, and need to raise funds badly, what do you do? You short down the market. The critical point is oil at 100. Because most funds have put stop losses at 95-98. So what the kingmaker needs to do: short oil down to below US$95. This will cause massive unwinding of positions by the hedge funds. And the ball passes. So the kingmakers have made their money. The kings hold losses. What will they do? Asia is a free market. Two choices: short, or long. The easiest way for kings to make money is to pass the buck onto princelings. So what you can likely expect in the local market in the coming two months: a further tanking, alternatively, a very, very rapid recovery, that then peters out. Which way it goes will be determined by the volume. if more local people are keen to sell, you can expect a ramp up. If more local people are keen to buy, you can expect a selldown. What i am sure of is this: if it is a ramp, most retailers will miss it. So what retailers, as bottom feeders, need to make sure of: do not get caught out by the princelings. Because the one rule in trading is this: Never be left holding the baby. And yes, crazy_fave. There is money in one place: forex. Stocks do not give an adequate risk/reward ratio any longer. At best you get a 1: 1 risk/reward ratio. So the simple choice is to stay out, wait for long term. The way if, you bought in 2004, and sold in 2006-7, you'd be a winner no matter what you bought. Keep eyes on the longterm goal, and ignore the rest of the sound and fury, opinions that you *should* do this, or *should* do that. What matters is longterm: what is your net position.
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| 11-Sep-2008 20:03 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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Support levels as per request: SPC: 4.46 (it's about there now), 4.10, then 3.65. Ezra: 1.34, 1.15, 0.85, 0.6 Note that SPC is very closely related to crude oil plays. And crude is currently a very dirty game: the big hedge funds and banks who lost money plowed massively and leveraged into long commods, but fed intervention is keeping oil down (so as to raise dollar and hence the US economy: because the DJIA historically never goes down in an election year). So oil at 100 is a critical level for the funds. If they unwind, you can expect oil at 80 and hence, SPC will go down. Very brutal game; i've been following it on another global forum i go to. Note not time to buy them yet. After the US elections, when they hand everything over, that is likely when they'll let it go to the pits. |
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| 11-Sep-2008 19:57 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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trader88, good post. :) yea, for me, S/R levels are just that, suggestions. ipunter: we all have our own ways of playing. it's all about what's sufficient, and what's proper money management for oneself. I don't use CFD because i have margin (so theoretically, you double/triple your plays each time), and i also play warrants. puts and calls. So what's the need to take on additional risk by going short? yea, a lot may say i'm stupid for not taking advantage of the chance. but then, it goes back to the basics: right money management, right risk management. Do I need to take additional risk? No. Hence, do i take it? No. The long term goal must always be kept in perspective: What is your own aim, 30, 40 years down? How much do you need to make a month, a year then? Back calculations. you do not give up longterm goals for shortterm gains. Simple as that. If one swings to what others say, one can only be a puppet. And i guess, rather than trading tips and whatnots, this is the principle that i should hope n00bs can learn til it becomes second nature. Find something that works for you, stick with it. Does ipunter make sense? Sure. As do livermore, and the rest. They are all different trading systems, different personalities. One needs to find what works for them, and ignore the rest as white noise. cheers! |
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| 11-Sep-2008 15:11 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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btw, who needs support levels for counters, just lemme know. if nothing else, at least one can be psychologically prepared for lows rather than being shocked each time. (pls don't give a list of 10+ counters tho. haha). cheers! |
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| 11-Sep-2008 15:08 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yah. in a way, although the $$ loss is a lot, as investors we should be thankful for the lessons learnt. if the market had just been a bull throughout, how many of us will learn proper money management, and risk management, and about ourselves: what loss we can really afford to take, as opposed to just *thinking* about it. more often than not, what i realised is this: most people will say that they can take loss, but when real loss hits them, they can't. and they hold on. that's how big losses happen. So for the punts that i had called (both died, of course.) but you can see how the s/l saves, which was why i had repeatedly emphasised that make sure you can take the loss first, and that the s/l was the most impt. Anyway, since we're here: logic for the two scalps, and why one calls those levels: NOL: because its NAV is US$1.38, and its 66% temasek backed. 202 was also the lowest it had dipped to. so compared to other prices, it was a 'safer' level to buy for a long. And likewise, a cut was entailed at below that, 1.98, since it'd mean support broken. Trade was scuttled today because UBS is the BB shorting this counter today. But we'd cut anyway, because never go against a foreign BB. YL: because 1.34 is its Nov 06 support. ie, there was a probability of rebound from there, and because the s/l is tight, if you had played it, your losses is only in the hundreds. Risk reward was about 1: 1. So that's ok. Longer term: It's right now hovering 1.26 or so because this is the second of its supports dated from Sept 06. Final support is 1.08, from its Jul 06. Longer term still shows downtrend intact. if you're waiting to average in, you may like to wait longer. be psychologically prepared for a low $1 level though. note yl has a backer. i don't know who, but they have one. ------- oh believe me, during this past year, i've cut loss like nobody's business. it hurts each time. but now, when i look back, i can only be glad that i've cut. some of them have dived more than 50% from my cut. at least now, when things are finally done bottoming (whenever that occurs), i'd still have capital to go in. |
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| 11-Sep-2008 13:34 |
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Forex Junction
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can't remember if i said it before, but thanks cashiertan for introducing me to forex. a key reason i got into it was because of your 'promotion' about it.  you were right that forex is very suitable for techies.
and in this kind of stock market, where it's shark eating shark, personally, forex actually comes as a relief; since it allows for trading; whereas the local equity market is kinda like, shorted to near-death already, and good only for long term plays. meanwhile, it's back to steady scalping. small money builds up to small fortunes. 
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| 11-Sep-2008 12:45 |
ShareJunction
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It is time to buy Now!!
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yea derrick, same here. i bet if we were to compile a list of analysts' reports and targets, we'd most likely find that 90% of them are wrong and they'd be out of jobs. an illuminating article you'd be hardpressed to find elsewhere amidst all the talk about 'fundamentals' and whatnots. http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=105619 follow the flow of money, not the talk. case in point: anyone remembers when, just a month or less ago, freddie and fannie said they were "adequately capitalised"? and three months back, all the Wall Street men from Citi, Goldman, MS etc, all came out with that marvellous phrase of "the worst is over"? haha. |
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| 11-Sep-2008 12:42 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=105619 good article. follow the flow of money, not whatever the hell the BBs say. |
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| 11-Sep-2008 12:14 |
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Forex Junction
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thanks for the explanation, singaporegal. and baseer, good stop loss. 
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| 11-Sep-2008 12:06 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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i believe it's with the mentality of "the worst is over". the way asian and global markets rallied on the Freddie/Fannie bailout, even though it's actually bad news.
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| 11-Sep-2008 12:04 |
ShareJunction
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It is time to buy Now!!
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if it's longterm, i'd advise either to buy selectively and over a period of time, alternatively not buying. must note here that i was kinda laughing to myself when i read the recommendations in today's newspapers. kinda like, they are the ones playing those counters they recommended. (-_-").... for the foreigners, currently this holds true: the bigger the losses they're reporting, the more they're shorting Asia. NOL today kena by UBS. NAV of US$1.38, 66% backed by Temasek. Also kena shorted, no dif. |
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| 11-Sep-2008 12:00 |
Golden Agri-Res
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GoldenAgr
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well, the saying goes that the bull climbs by the stairs, but the bear jumps out by the window. *freefall* . another forumer had requested the support levels for GAr, so am posting it out here for all as well. Pls take as guidance only, and not as fixed. 3 year weekly charts for GAr: Support at 39.5, then 30, then 17.5. Note that GAr is currently resting on one of its major supports now (the 39.5-42.5 pivot). Which is why you may see select buying. A breakage of this level would be bad as this was its Aug 17 07 support (the day of the major crash). 30c is back to Sept 06, about just before the start of the bull run. fyi only. |
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| 11-Sep-2008 11:43 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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sian. there goes the punts. 
well, at the v least, newbies get an idea of stop losses now. logic being: rather lose in the 100s than in the 1000s. And rather lose in the 1000s than in the 10,000s. etc.
 market. thank goodness for forex. i'm back to 
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| 10-Sep-2008 19:59 |
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update on LEH: it's officially out. http://www.tradethenews.com/stock-news/Financials/Lehman-Brothers-Holdings-Inc/LEH/456605 they're selling majority stake in newberger berman plus a further 4bil to blackrock. there goes an old institution... |
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| 10-Sep-2008 18:14 |
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hot off wire, int talk: possible buyout of Lehman. 15 billion. fyi only |
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