ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Battle of Prediction (Wilmar)
19 Nov Afternoon- Market was at $3.63. I boldy predicted Wilmar will fall below $3.63, from this speculative price, in which shareholders only bought at $3, and anything above $3.15 is a speculative amount. Market closed at $3.62. [I warned that market momentum moving well far $3, and into speculative price of $3.15. The market is bound to suffer a major drop in weeks to come despite naive people insisted on uptrend]
20 Nov- Market fall to $3.52. (The first fall and significant losses of $0.11)
On 20 Nov closing: I predicted that there will be several downfalls beneath $3.52. The downfall will continue with a bigger drop awaiting.
21 Nov- Market fall to $3.48
22 Nov- Market rises to $3.55
23 & 24 Nov- I foresee several tornadoes below the " current speculated price" , & dark clouds awaiting.
The downtrend is gathering significant speculated buyers, before it move downwards significantly.
25 Nov- Market closed $3..59 I saw a very high risk at current level.
26 Nov- Market closed $3..58 (a point lower)

Wilmar Financial Data
According to Bloomberg, Current Price/Book 1.2476
26 Sep- Term Loan increased from US1.5 Billion to US2.065 Billion + Interests
11 Jul- Term Loan of US1.5 Billion

(Within 2 months - Debts increased another US 565 Millions + Interests!!!)

What do you think Wilmar is worth?

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Thanks....I'll go to SG talk to look for it.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 21:15) Posted:

I posted my recommended us stock in sg talk. But I play US penny stock, very high risk but good return.

lglg666 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 20:00) Posted:

Can learn from u about US stocks then? The only US stocks I had was option share from my ex company I worked in, all sold when the co shut down its operation here. After that I had no dealing with US stocks. I have joined a couple of news letters there and reading about US stock news only. Good luck with your trading....cheers

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This broker house doesn't state the fact. Let see how Wilmar run wild in 2014. They will upgrade their TP sooner or later

guoyanyunyan ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 21:13) Posted:

Wilmar: Forms China corn starch JV

By Carey Wong
Tue, 26 Nov 2013, 10:28:56 SGT

Wilmar International Limited (WIL) recently announced that it has formed a JV with Tereos Internacional to manufacture corn starch in China ? this is its second commercial collaboration with Tereos. However, we do not see any immediate boost to earnings. Meanwhile, we note that WIL?s share price has done very well (+17%) since our upgrade to Buy on 6 Sep but as WIL looks fairly priced around current levels versus unchanged S$3.55 fair value (based on 12.5x FY14F EPS), we opt to maintain our HOLD rating. We also advocate taking profit closer to S$3.70.

Forms China corn starch JV
Wilmar recently announced that it has formed a JV with Tereos Internacional called Liaoning Yihai Kerry Tereos Starch Technology Co Ltd. The move will see Tereos acquiring 49% of the JV company from WIL?s subsidiary for RMB208m the JV will engage in the operation of a corn starch facility in Tieling (Liaoning Province) with a current annual processing capacity of 700k tons of corn. According to WIL, the acquisition marks the second important step in the development of the major partnership with Tereos in the rapidly growing market for starch-based products in China. However, we do not see any immediate impact on earnings.

Shares already ran up sharply
Meanwhile, the recent recovery in CPO (crude palm oil) prices has lifted plantation stocks (WIL rose as much as 17% after our upgrade to Buy on 6 Sep), but we believe that some of these optimism may be overdone. For one, WIL is still a net buyer of vegetable oil (including CPO) and a continued rise of input prices could result in a margin squeeze for its consumer packs. Note that because cooking oil is an essential food item, it may also be subject to price caps should inflation in China rises faster than the government?s guidance. Secondly, the enthusiasm over the Indonesian government?s doubling of the bio-diesel mandate to 10% blend may be a bit premature. A recent Platts report suggested that the Pertamina tender may not offer as fat a profit margin as what the market is expecting.

Maintain HOLD with S$3.55 fair value
Currently, WIL is trading close to our unchanged fair value of S$3.55 (based on 12.5x FY14F EPS), suggesting that the stock looks fairly priced around here. From a historical perspective, we see that WIL?s valuation is already close to its 2-year average. Hence, we opt to maintain our HOLDrating. We also advocate taking profit closer to S$3.70. Last: $3.58.

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I posted my recommended us stock in sg talk. But I play US penny stock, very high risk but good return.

lglg666 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 20:00) Posted:

Can learn from u about US stocks then? The only US stocks I had was option share from my ex company I worked in, all sold when the co shut down its operation here. After that I had no dealing with US stocks. I have joined a couple of news letters there and reading about US stock news only. Good luck with your trading....cheers!

ynnek1267 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 18:34) Posted:

Wish you all the best.

Wish me all the best in today US market. Playing US share don't require cfd, the movement is enough for 1 to 1 leverage. Not like Wilmar can be 1 to 10, therefore causing all people play Wilmar with cfd, movement slow like tortoise since it take much longer time to flush out weak holder

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Wilmar: Forms China corn starch JV

By Carey Wong
Tue, 26 Nov 2013, 10:28:56 SGT

Wilmar International Limited (WIL) recently announced that it has formed a JV with Tereos Internacional to manufacture corn starch in China ? this is its second commercial collaboration with Tereos. However, we do not see any immediate boost to earnings. Meanwhile, we note that WIL?s share price has done very well (+17%) since our upgrade to Buy on 6 Sep but as WIL looks fairly priced around current levels versus unchanged S$3.55 fair value (based on 12.5x FY14F EPS), we opt to maintain our HOLD rating. We also advocate taking profit closer to S$3.70.

Forms China corn starch JV
Wilmar recently announced that it has formed a JV with Tereos Internacional called Liaoning Yihai Kerry Tereos Starch Technology Co Ltd. The move will see Tereos acquiring 49% of the JV company from WIL?s subsidiary for RMB208m the JV will engage in the operation of a corn starch facility in Tieling (Liaoning Province) with a current annual processing capacity of 700k tons of corn. According to WIL, the acquisition marks the second important step in the development of the major partnership with Tereos in the rapidly growing market for starch-based products in China. However, we do not see any immediate impact on earnings.

Shares already ran up sharply
Meanwhile, the recent recovery in CPO (crude palm oil) prices has lifted plantation stocks (WIL rose as much as 17% after our upgrade to Buy on 6 Sep), but we believe that some of these optimism may be overdone. For one, WIL is still a net buyer of vegetable oil (including CPO) and a continued rise of input prices could result in a margin squeeze for its consumer packs. Note that because cooking oil is an essential food item, it may also be subject to price caps should inflation in China rises faster than the government?s guidance. Secondly, the enthusiasm over the Indonesian government?s doubling of the bio-diesel mandate to 10% blend may be a bit premature. A recent Platts report suggested that the Pertamina tender may not offer as fat a profit margin as what the market is expecting.

Maintain HOLD with S$3.55 fair value
Currently, WIL is trading close to our unchanged fair value of S$3.55 (based on 12.5x FY14F EPS), suggesting that the stock looks fairly priced around here. From a historical perspective, we see that WIL?s valuation is already close to its 2-year average. Hence, we opt to maintain our HOLDrating. We also advocate taking profit closer to S$3.70. Last: $3.58.

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Can learn from u about US stocks then? The only US stocks I had was option share from my ex company I worked in, all sold when the co shut down its operation here. After that I had no dealing with US stocks. I have joined a couple of news letters there and reading about US stock news only. Good luck with your trading....cheers!

ynnek1267 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 18:34) Posted:

Wish you all the best.

Wish me all the best in today US market. Playing US share don't require cfd, the movement is enough for 1 to 1 leverage. Not like Wilmar can be 1 to 10, therefore causing all people play Wilmar with cfd, movement slow like tortoise since it take much longer time to flush out weak holder.

lglg666 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 18:16) Posted:

Thanks for your understanding. I sold off in this morning becoz like u, I can't monitor whole day as I gotto sleep. I'm working the night shift. So I put in the order before I sleep or before I go to work. I used KE-CFD and KE pro-trader to do my trades via iPad and hp. If I'm off like yesterday I can monitor longer that is why I think this Wilmar price action would be the same thing as last week. After this then it will run up again....this round it will test the 3.7+ barrier. Good luck to u too

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Wish you all the best.

Wish me all the best in today US market. Playing US share don't require cfd, the movement is enough for 1 to 1 leverage. Not like Wilmar can be 1 to 10, therefore causing all people play Wilmar with cfd, movement slow like tortoise since it take much longer time to flush out weak holder.

lglg666 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 18:16) Posted:

Thanks for your understanding. I sold off in this morning becoz like u, I can't monitor whole day as I gotto sleep. I'm working the night shift. So I put in the order before I sleep or before I go to work. I used KE-CFD and KE pro-trader to do my trades via iPad and hp. If I'm off like yesterday I can monitor longer that is why I think this Wilmar price action would be the same thing as last week. After this then it will run up again....this round it will test the 3.7+ barrier. Good luck to u too.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 17:48) Posted:

No worry bro, based on today trading, you are right and tomorrow may open low since the selling pressure occurred at close and some retailers confidence level may break and sell off at tomorrow open market.

I just can't monitor whole day and catch every single up & down. What I can do is to keep it till it break 4 dollar.

Wish you catch all the up & down in the Wilmar rally in next 3 months

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Thanks for your understanding. I sold off in this morning becoz like u, I can't monitor whole day as I gotto sleep. I'm working the night shift. So I put in the order before I sleep or before I go to work. I used KE-CFD and KE pro-trader to do my trades via iPad and hp. If I'm off like yesterday I can monitor longer that is why I think this Wilmar price action would be the same thing as last week. After this then it will run up again....this round it will test the 3.7+ barrier. Good luck to u too.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 17:48) Posted:

No worry bro, based on today trading, you are right and tomorrow may open low since the selling pressure occurred at close and some retailers confidence level may break and sell off at tomorrow open market.

I just can't monitor whole day and catch every single up & down. What I can do is to keep it till it break 4 dollar.

Wish you catch all the up & down in the Wilmar rally in next 3 months.

lglg666 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 17:27) Posted:

Sorry bro to be too detail about my trading set up plan. It wont happen again. One thing for sure.....Wilmar will do better than last year 3.90 and who knows this could be the start for a rally for all commodity stocks with Wilmar leading the pack.

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No worry bro, based on today trading, you are right and tomorrow may open low since the selling pressure occurred at close and some retailers confidence level may break and sell off at tomorrow open market.

I just can't monitor whole day and catch every single up & down. What I can do is to keep it till it break 4 dollar.

Wish you catch all the up & down in the Wilmar rally in next 3 months.

lglg666 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 17:27) Posted:

Sorry bro to be too detail about my trading set up plan. It wont happen again. One thing for sure.....Wilmar will do better than last year 3.90 and who knows this could be the start for a rally for all commodity stocks with Wilmar leading the pack.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 11:46) Posted:

Haha with selfish attitude, I hope it won't drop back below 3.6

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Sorry bro to be too detail about my trading set up plan. It wont happen again. One thing for sure.....Wilmar will do better than last year 3.90 and who knows this could be the start for a rally for all commodity stocks with Wilmar leading the pack.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 11:46) Posted:

Haha with selfish attitude, I hope it won't drop back below 3.6.

lglg666 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 11:39) Posted:

That's for sure....this year's run has just started and it will run much higher than it did last year. I bet my last $ on that....since everything is near its best condition in the past 2 years. CPO has improved and still improving, and all biz sections are doing well too. China and India are buying more. I will monitor this one very closely for potential entry set up. May not drop to the last drop level of 3.48.....this round my entry it will be around 3.53 to 3.55 level

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There is strong cash in Wilmar account in this quarter. Hopefully it is used to kill the shortist and create a year end runniny

rayyeo ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 17:18) Posted:

Confirmed bro..!

I met Robert Kuok in my dream yesterday, he say no above $4.00, no sell.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 17:15) Posted:

Wilmar face the resistance as what noble facing these few days. Put the faith with her, it will break it and move up soon.

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Dont worry the stock need to rest first before making the next wave up mah.

Octavia ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 12:18) Posted:

Last Tuesday have big vol..might see some selling from contra players.

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Confirmed bro..!

I met Robert Kuok in my dream yesterday, he say no above $4.00, no sell.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 17:15) Posted:

Wilmar face the resistance as what noble facing these few days. Put the faith with her, it will break it and move up soon.

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Wilmar face the resistance as what noble facing these few days. Put the faith with her, it will break it and move up soon.

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Rally on hold on 3rd day. Can't break 3.6.

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looks like the commodities rally still have leggs.....surely it is volatile in the short term..prices go up and down...just keep your eyes on CPO prices and fundamentals affecting it.....Don't focus on the stock prices...so long uptrend is intact..just hang on...and Both FA and TA are just getting better.

cheers,

Jason at http://myfcoach.com/ and http://millionaire-investors.blogspot.sg/

myfcoach ( Date: 19-Nov-2013 18:58) Posted:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch upgraded Wilmar from $3.90 to $5.00.

what triggered it?

A recent call for tender by Indonesian's state oil company Pertamina to buy 3 million tonnes of biodiesel in 2014. " The lastest biodiesel policy will benefit it greatly" , but cautioned that a quicker than expected rise in palm oil price or a sharp decline in diesel price would pose risks.

From :Shareinvestor.com news.

cheers,

Jason at http://myfcoach.com/ and http://millionaire-investors.blogspot.sg/

myfcoach ( Date: 19-Nov-2013 12:33) Posted:

as you can see, stocks doesn't go up in a straight line....Up retrace abit...forming a higher lows along the way...

Fundamentals and Technicals are improving....looks like will retest $3.90...if can break.. hold, cannot break.... sell....also depend on what happens later whether fundamental support for palm oil and sugar still good or not......

China is re-stocking in anticipation of Chinese NewYear...India as well...

More catalyst is China govt already said to let " markets" have a bigger role...meaning govt will control less.....Do you know that palm oil and sugar prices are depressed in China due to govt control for many years...so wilmar had a hard time......Volcano would erupt if the govt lid is removed...then commodities firms with exposure in China will really have a sustainable rally...in fact, most of the big players supply to China.....Noble, GAR, Olam(cotton) etc.

cheers,

Jason at http://myfcoach.com/ and http://millionaire-investors.blogspot.sg/

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Run willy run ! Touch 3.9 quickly so can have merry xmas n happy new year for everyone..huat ah!

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Dont mention it,Sista Gorgeuous.

GorgeousOng ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 12:21) Posted:

Thank you Sista !!!

Octavia ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 12:18) Posted:

Last Tuesday have big vol..might see some selling from contra players.

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Thank you Sista !!!

Octavia ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 12:18) Posted:

Last Tuesday have big vol..might see some selling from contra players.

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Last Tuesday have big vol..might see some selling from contra players.