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Latest Posts By Peter_Pan - Supreme      About Peter_Pan
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05-Jul-2013 16:39 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
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AusGroup: A Few Little Fish, Where's The Big Tuna? (SELL, SGD0.37, 
TP: SGD0.33)
Lee Yue Jer (+65 6232 3898, yuejer.lee@sg.oskgroup.com) 
Jason Saw (+65 6232 3871, jason.saw@sg.oskgroup.com) 
AusGroup announced that it has won an AUD36m contract extension for 
a calciner overhaul and maintenance project with Alcoa of Australia for 
the next 39 months. While the recent series of small order wins is 
encouraging, the orderbook still suffers from a lack of visibility. After 
taking the recent plunge in the AUD and 4QFY13F earnings risks into 
account, our TP drops further to SGD0.33. Maintain SELL. 
Another in a series of small contracts. AusGroup has won a number of 
small contracts recently (all under AUD50m) but so far we have not seen the 
large (> AUD100m) contracts that will really give the orderbook the necessary 
boost to strengthen the outlook. The orderbook now stands at AUD252m, up 
from the AUD215m reported at the end of 3QFY13. However, this is still less 
than half a year of revenue visibility. 
AUD sinks to 4-year low. The AUD has collapsed to a level not seen since 
July 2009 (See Figure 1), pressured by weak commodity demand from a 
slowing China. This looks like a structural issue, and is unlikely to see a major 
reversal in the near term. Investors are buying into weaker earnings 
denominated in a weakening currency. 
Potential risks to 4QFY13F earnings. The Karara Mining client nonpayment issue is a key concern because AusGroup may have to take 
provisions on the receivables. With revenues having slid for four consecutive 
quarters, this might be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back, sending 
AusGroup into the red for the quarter. In any case, the full-year figure will be a 
sharp drop from FY12’s strong AUD23.3m profit, which may catalyse another 
retreat in the share price. 
Fundamentals eroding. Maintain SELL, with lower SGD0.33 TP. Low 
visibility, structural pressures on the functional currency, and a clear risk to 
earnings are strong reasons against attempting to bottom-fish at this price. 
Technical analysis may also fail given that the prices of the last four years 
were all based on a much-stronger AUD. Our TP is lowered to SGD0.33 
based on 0.8x P/B (-1SD from its 5-year average See Figure 2). Maintain 
SELL.       (OSK-DMG)
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05-Jul-2013 16:30 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Will Dow rally 200+ points!   or     -200+ points!       ??????
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05-Jul-2013 14:50 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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Lai Lai Lai !!! Yi Ren Yi Ge, Kan Qin Bu Shan !!
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05-Jul-2013 14:45 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		US markets will rally tonight after positive European markets rally and Egypt market rally. The game-changer will be the non-farm payroll and unemployment datas due later.
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05-Jul-2013 14:39 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Looks like European markets continue to be green green later.
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05-Jul-2013 13:15 Vard   /   Vard Holdings       Go to Message
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x 1 		Next thursday. But prices may also shoot up. This is a trade for risk-takers.

JarolLo      ( Date: 05-Jul-2013 13:08) Posted:

Bro, when is the announcement?

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 05-Jul-2013 12:07) Posted:

Price likely to stay depressed/lower prior to earnings.
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05-Jul-2013 12:07 Vard   /   Vard Holdings       Go to Message
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x 0 		Price likely to stay depressed/lower prior to earnings.
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05-Jul-2013 10:31 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
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x 0 		Ausgroup: SGD0.37 - SELL (TP: SGD0.33) A Few Little Fish, Where's The Big Tuna? - DMG
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05-Jul-2013 10:08 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
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x 0 		Yah, they lowered the target price again.
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05-Jul-2013 09:49 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
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Good for short-term rebound trade bah. DMG just cut its target price again. 
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04-Jul-2013 23:13 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Your prata flipping skill will determine how long you can stay in the game..lol!
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04-Jul-2013 23:10 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Volatility is the name of the game.
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04-Jul-2013 21:03 Vard   /   Vard Holdings       Go to Message
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x 0 		The Europeans are now eating Huat Kueh ah!!
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04-Jul-2013 13:07 Vard   /   Vard Holdings       Go to Message
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x 0 		Yes can preserve as Kiam Heee...the kiam kiam bah woo is very nice also..!

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 04-Jul-2013 12:54) Posted:

Do you think can preserve it as salted fish?
CMZ became Kiam Chai at .92 ... now off and on up few cents ... not bad at all!
If Vard becomes salted fish can have the same faith as CMZ...???
Porridge with salted fish lagi best!!!
Cheers!!!

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 04-Jul-2013 12:14) Posted:



200-Year-Old Fish Caught Off Alaska

200-Year-Old Fish Caught Off Alaska



 


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04-Jul-2013 12:14 Vard   /   Vard Holdings       Go to Message
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200-Year-Old Fish Caught Off Alaska

200-Year-Old Fish Caught Off Alaska



 
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04-Jul-2013 09:39 Vard   /   Vard Holdings       Go to Message
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x 0 		No leh! I want to hoot more on dips!!!

halleluyah      ( Date: 04-Jul-2013 09:34) Posted:

Bro Peter, hv u taken yr profit?? If drop, then will play in the 80cts range loh. 

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 04-Jul-2013 09:12) Posted:

hor lor
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04-Jul-2013 09:12 Vard   /   Vard Holdings       Go to Message
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x 0 		hor lor!

WanSiTong      ( Date: 04-Jul-2013 08:57) Posted:



you are lucky!  " in hor ter Fu" !

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 03-Jul-2013 17:12) Posted:

Siao liao!!! Matched at 0.89!!! Tomorrow jialat liao!!!
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04-Jul-2013 08:50 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Also treated ah ben Starbucks Kopi to wash the Huat Kueh down his big tummy.

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 04-Jul-2013 05:44) Posted:

Good morning!
I guess Ah Ben n companies have received Green Huat Kueh from our CEO Pan! Cheers!
Have another "cardiac stress test" today!!!

Good luck to all willing buyer n willing seller!!!🙈 🙉 🙊 🙊 🙉 🙈

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03-Jul-2013 23:20 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		This liulian bao jiak!

LoveToInvest      ( Date: 03-Jul-2013 18:15) Posted:

Don't know whether oil will tumble, still early to say..this is too ridiculous , some unknown hand is manipulating the oil market.. Guess who? Wish everyone Huat time time,发 大 发 小 都 是 发 ， 加 油 ！ 加 油 ， 再 加 油 ！ 😊

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 03-Jul-2013 18:08) Posted:

Is time to pick liulian..kekeke
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03-Jul-2013 18:08 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Is time to pick liulian..kekeke
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