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| 06-Sep-2009 22:07 |
ComfortDelGro
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ComfortDelGro
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INITIATE WITH BUY RATING COMFORTDELGRO CORP LTD Growth opportunities overide near-term concerns We like CD’s fundamentals based on its overseas expansion strategy. CD has established a strong foothold as a key player in the bus services market in Britain and Australia, which will help garner further contracts. At the same time, CD’s toehold in taxi operations across 11 cities in China puts it in a strong position to tap further acquisitions for business expansion. In addition, CD has more potential to tap rail opportunities in Singapore with a growing NEL operation and the likely award of DTL. Despite near-term concerns over earnings volatility from forex fluctuations, the potential from the above opportunities boost long-term growth prospects. Trading at lower end of P/E band, upside 22% At S$1.61, CD is trading at 14.6x FY09, 14.2x FY10 and 13.6x FY11 PEs. This is at the lower end of its historic PE band of 13 to 18x. For its growth opportunities, we think CD should trade up to 18x. Discounting 4% to 18x PE for a 10% forex volatility to overseas earnings, we derive a Fair Value of S$1.96, which is at 17.3x FY10 PE. With share upside potential of 22%, we initiate coverage of CD with a BUY rating. AmFraser Securities Pte Ltd 4 September 2009 |
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| 06-Sep-2009 21:59 |
SPC
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SPC
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Singapore Petroleum Corp (FULLY VALUED; S$6.23; Price Target: 12-Month S$6.25; SPC SP) Final extension of the mandatory cash offer As at 27 Aug 2009, Petrochina’s stake in SPC has amounted to 95.01% and the final closing date of the mandatory cash offer has been extended to the closing of 4 Sep 2009 (the Final Closing Date). And in accordance with the listing rules of the SGX, trading of the SPC shares will be suspended at the close of the Offer. Petrochina stated that it has no intention to extend the offer beyond the Final Closing Date and it intends to exercise its right to compulsorily acquire all the remaining shares and proceed to delist SPC. We recommend investors to accept the offer and maintain our Fully Valued rating with S$6.25 target price based on the offer price. DBS Group Research . Equity 31 August 2009 |
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| 06-Sep-2009 21:56 |
CapitaLand
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Capitaland
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CapitaLand (BUY S$3.71; Price Target : 12-month S$ 4.18 (Prev S$ 4.50); CAPL SP) Awaiting capital deployment • Capital allocation indicates growth strategy execution • China, Vietnam and Ascott earmarked • Maintain Buy with TP of $4.18 Imminent stock re-rating. We believe Capitaland is well placed for an imminent re-rating. After undertaking capital management exercises to strengthen balance sheet and increase its liquidity position, the group is well placed to tap opportunities for its next growth phase with strong cash hoard of $4.2b, reduced gearing of 0.43x and lengthened debt maturity profile of 6.6 years. We expect newsflow on potential new investment activities to materialize over the next 6 months as the group taps opportunities within this property cycle. Laying foundation for growth. Recent $1b capital allocation into China, Vietnam as well as the serviced residence operations indicates areas the group has earmarked to grow. In China, the group is looking at opportunities to replenish its residential landbank, particularly in Shanghai and Beijing and is expected to expand exposure from the present 27% of total assets to 45%. In Vietnam, it is looking at residential projects to ride on the young and growing urban population and positive home ownership policies. Meanwhile, planned asset enhancement activities of its European serviced residence operations should allow the group to rejuvenate this mature portfolio and potentially offer value unlocking opportunities in the longer run. Maintain Buy. We are revising our FY09 earnings to reflect the impact from revaluations and impairments but raising FY10 numbers to factor in a more rapid pace of residential launches. Our RNAV of $4.92 is adjusted to take into account the marginal dilutive impact from the recent $1.2b CB issue. Our price target of $4.18, based on a 15% discount to asset backing, provides 13% potential upside. Maintain Buy. DBS Group Research . Equity 1 September 2009 |
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| 06-Sep-2009 21:51 |
Seatrium
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Sembmarine
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Sembcorp Marine (BUY; $3.12; Price Target: 12-month S$3.70; SMM SP) Hiccup to be easily resolved • SMM terminates Petroprod’s jackup rig contract. • Cash collection on the jackup rig is in line with work done to-date. • There are ready buyers for the jackup rig. • Maintain BUY. Target price of S$3.70 (+19%). SMM terminates Petroprod’s jackup rig contract. Sembcorp Marine’s (SMM) 100%-owned subsidiary, Jurong Shipyard Pte Ltd, has terminated its jackup rig construction contract with Petroprod D&P I Ltd. Petroprod has missed its milestone payments in the last 2-3 months, and SMM has now exercised its contractual rights. Cash collection is in line with work done to-date. SMM has collected 50% of the Petroprod contract value in cash to-date. The revenue recognized to-date is also 50% of the contract value, in line with the work done to-date. Note that SMM has prudently not recognized any profits that could have arisen from this newbuild contract. The initial value of this contract is US$442m. Ready buyers for the jackup rig. SMM has received enquiries on the newbuild jackup rig, which is a harsh environmentdrilling rig (based on the proven MSC CJ70 design) that can operate in the Norwegian North Sea. Notwithstanding that SMM has no contractual obligation to return excess money (vs. construction cost incurred to-date) to Petroprod, we believe SMM would be able to find buyers for the rig at near initial contract value. No change to earnings estimates. We are keeping our recurring net profit forecasts at S$516m in FY09 and S$553m in FY10, as SMM is going ahead with the construction of the jackup rig. Our earnings model has already factored in about US$541m worth of contracts that may be cancelled, and this is more than sufficient to cover the worst-case scenario for the coming rig sale. BUY SMM. Our target price for SMM stays at S$3.70, using SOTP valuation metric. Maintain BUY. DBS Group Research . Equity 2 September 2009 |
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| 06-Sep-2009 21:40 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang
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By Carey Wong Fri, 4 Sep 2009 Yangzijiang (04 Sep 2009) FOCUS Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd: Holding up well in a tough environment Summary: We are initiating coverage on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Yangzijiang), an established shipbuilder in the PRC. The group has a strong order book of 139 vessels worth a total of US$6.1b as at 30 Jun 09. More noteworthy is the fact that management said the group has not received any order cancellations so far, though delivery reschedules have occurred. The group’s margins have also held up with the construction of higher margin vessels, but they are expected to fall in the longer run. Looking forward, new order flows are unlikely to return soon to previous levels but Yangzijiang is proactively branching out into new areas like vessel scrapping. Based on 11x blended FY09/10F earnings, we initiate coverage on Yangzijiang with a BUY rating and S$1.20 fair value estimate. (Low Pei Han) OCBC Investment Research Private Limited |
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| 06-Sep-2009 21:37 |
M1
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M1
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MobileOne - Key breakout suggests more upside potential Thu, 3 Sep 2009 Key breakout suggests more upside potential Key resistance broken. MobileOne is likely to head higher in the days ahead; this after breaking above the $1.74 key support-turned-resistance on heavy volume yesterday. Indicators are bullish. The RSI indicator has just rebounded strongly from the 50% mark and the MACD indicator is now on the verge of staging a bullish crossover. Coupled with a breakout from the Bollinger Band squeeze yesterday, these signals suggest further upside momentum ahead. Initial resistance at $1.85. We peg the immediate resistance at $1.85 (gap formed in Oct‘09), ahead of the $1.92 (peak in Sep’09 and gap formed in Aug’09). Immediate support at $1.74. Below the immediate support of $1.74, we peg the subsequent support at $1.65 (key resistance-turned-support), followed by $1.58 (resistance-turned-support and 9-month uptrend line). OCBC Investment Research |
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| 05-Sep-2009 01:32 |
Allgreen
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Allgreen - Can buy ?
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Strategy - uobkayhian 24 August 2009 Key Highlights Of Teleconference With Las Vegas Sands We had a teleconference with Las Vegas Sands on its subsidiary Marina Bay Sands (MBS), one of the Singapore’s two integrated resorts (IR) currently under construction. Opening in mid-February, potential visitorship of 14m-15m in first year. MBS targets opening in mid-Feb 10 and is anticipating a visitorship of 14m-15m in the first year. Investors remain skeptical on the impact of Singapore’s IRs, but the man in the street believes otherwise, judging from the astounding residential property sales over the last three months (with Singaporeans forming the bulk of the buyers). This suggests that the stock market possibly has not fully recognised the benefits of the IRs. Stock Picks IR operators. We prefer Genting (GENT MK/BUY/RM7.60) over Genting Singapore (GENS SP/HOLD/S$0.95) given the former’s cheaper valuations. We also recommend investors to look for better values in indirect plays to the IRs which include the following sectors. Property stocks. The IRs were the major catalysts of the last property boom in 2005- 07, creating buzz for Singapore's transformation into a top global city in which to live, work and play. We see the property sector as the largest IR play by market capitalisation. Our top stock picks are Ho Bee Investment (HOBEE SP/Target: S$1.65), City Developments (CIT SP/BUY/S$12.70), Allgreen Properties (AG SP/BUY/S$1.75) and Wing Tai Holdings (WINGT SP/BUY/S$2.55). Tourist arrival recovery plays. We forecast tourist arrivals to rebound 20% in 2010 after a 12% contraction in 2009. MBS and Resorts World@Sentosa will require external room supply to support their businesses. CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT SP/BUY/S$1.55) is among our top 10 stock picks for 2H09. As the opening of the IRs looms close, we expect investor interest to shift to other hotel stocks such as Amara Holdings (AMA SP/NOT RATED), Fragrance Group (FRAG SP/NOT RATED) and Hotel Properties (HPL SP/NOT RATED). Media. A recovery in advertising spending from the multiplier effect of the IRs on the property and services sectors will be positive for Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP/BUY/Target: S$4.40). Other services. Transport plays will also benefit. We prefer non-airline stocks such as SMRT Corporation (MRT SP/BUY/S$2.00), ComfortDelgro (CD SP/BUY/S$1.85) and Singapore Airport Terminal Services (SATS SP/NOT RATED). Nancy Wei (65) 6539 8480 nancy.wei@uobkayhian.com |
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| 04-Sep-2009 10:30 |
Midas
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Midas
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I guess the "1 lot" seller is plot to pull Midas' 15days EMA to cross below 30 days EMA. *&^%$# As at 3Sep09 15 days EMA $0.840 30 days EMA $0.834 50 days EMA $0.788 |
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| 04-Sep-2009 09:39 |
Allgreen
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Allgreen - Can buy ?
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28 August 2009 Allgreen Properties Ltd S$1.21 Target: S$1.50 Source: Company, CIMB-GK Research, Bloomberg Insights from company visit Mkt.Cap: S$1,924m/US$1,335m Property Devt & Invt Valuation and recommendation: Raising RNAV estimate and target price; maintain Outperform. We raise our ASP assumptions for Allgreen’s Singapore and China projects, based on the latest guidance. In particular, our China ASPs have been raised from Rmb10,000psm to Rmb12,000-14,000psm, to reflect optimism on China properties. Our estimates are still 10-15% below guidance. Our FY09-11 core EPS estimates have been raised by 8-30% as a result. We raise our end-CY10 RNAV estimate and target price (parity to RNAV) from S$1.38 to S$1.50 to factor in the above, offset by lower capital values for Allgreen’s investment properties. While the stock is up 134% YTD, we believe positive take-up of planned launches in 2H09 could lift its valuations further. Allgreen is best positioned to capitalise on rising sentiment for mass-mid-tier properties, in our view, given its large inventory in this segment. Maintain Outperform. |
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| 04-Sep-2009 08:39 |
Allgreen
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Allgreen - Can buy ?
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28 August 2009 Allgreen Properties Ltd S$1.21 Target: S$1.50 Source: Company, CIMB-GK Research, Bloomberg Insights from company visit Mkt.Cap: S$1,924m/US$1,335m Property Devt & Invt Valuation and recommendation: Raising RNAV estimate and target price; maintain Outperform. We raise our ASP assumptions for Allgreens Singapore and China projects, based on the latest guidance. In particular, our China ASPs have been raised from Rmb10,000psm to Rmb12,000-14,000psm, to reflect optimism on China properties. Our estimates are still 10-15% below guidance. Our FY09-11 core EPS estimates have been raised by 8-30% as a result. We raise our end-CY10 RNAV estimate and target price (parity to RNAV) from S$1.38 to S$1.50 to factor in the above, offset by lower capital values for Allgreens investment properties. While the stock is up 134% YTD, we believe positive take-up of planned launches in 2H09 could lift its valuations further. Allgreen is best positioned to capitalise on rising sentiment for mass-mid-tier properties, in our view, given its large inventory in this segment. Maintain Outperform. |
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| 04-Sep-2009 00:01 |
Hyflux
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Hyflux
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3 Sep 2009 DBS Hyflux, Clearer visibility, stronger funding: Upgraded price target to S$3.50 • Visibility clearer than ever, thanks to a firm and growing orderbook • Potential for asset divestment strengthened by JBIC collaboration and lower cost of funding at HWT • Divestment will provide earnings boost; recycle capital to drive further growth in MENA, India • Reassessment of Hyflux’s BOT valuation raises SOTP value to S$3.50. Maintain Buy, with 22% upside. We have upgraded our price target to S$3.50, as we raised FY09/10 earnings forecast to account for higher margin. The recent hike in water tariffs in China’s main cities, and an improving investment climate, has also resulted in a higher valuation for Hyflux’s BOT portfolio. We maintain our BUY call on Hyflux with 22% upside to TP. We believe recent developments have raised the company to a whole new level, as outlined below. Firstly, earnings visibility is clearer than ever. This is underpinned by a firm orderbook of S$952m to be realized over the next 18 months. This is excluding the potential S$1.1bn worth of projects from Libya pending finalization and financial close. When these are officially awarded by early 2010, earnings visibility will extend to 2013. In the meantime, Hyflux is actively bidding for jobs in new markets such as India and more countries in the Middle East including Tunisia and Morocco. As such, we expect Hyflux to impress the market with yet more contracts from new locations. Secondly, Hyflux’s financial backing has grown stronger especially after its collaboration with the Japan Bank for International Co-operation (“JBIC”). Funding is not only critical for project executions; the ability to monetize completed projects is imperative for further growth. As more plants are being completed in China, we believe Hyflux would have a critical mass of water plants by next year, ready for divestment. It also helps that HWT – with a lower cost of capital following the market recovery – is in a better position to acquire yield accretive projects. Divestments will provide an instant lift to earnings in 2010. |
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| 03-Sep-2009 18:30 |
Allgreen
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Allgreen - Can buy ?
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Allgreen Properties: BUY ; TP: S$1.39; AG SP Geared To Go · Recent meeting with Allgreen management cements our positive view on company · Management comfortable with gearing ratio of 0.65x, which gives it c.S$500m of debt headroom · Four launch-ready projects in mid-tier segment · Top mid-cap pick; Reiterate BUY, TP of S$1.39 All Ready To Go. We met Allgreen management recently and came away assured that it remains in a good position to take advantage of current momentum in the mid-tier segment, given its enviable number of launch-ready projects. Net gearing remains low at 0.46x and management indicated it would be comfortable gearing up to 0.65x. Based on its 2Q09 balance sheet, it provides debt headroom of c. S$500m for any potential acquisitions. Its participation in the Chestnut Ave tender shows it is not averse to supplementing its landbank. Visibility Improving. While FY09F earnings from its development properties segment will largely be underpinned by revenue recognition from Cairnhill Residences (TOP end-09), Cascadia and Pavilion Park, recent success at One Devonshire and VIVA will provide earnings visibility going into FY10F and FY11F. Potential launches in the pipeline will also contribute, as will its share from JV projects in China, which we believe could boost earnings from late FY10 onwards. BUY, TP S$1.39. With four launch-ready projects in various locations, we believe Allgreen is poised to capitalise on buoyant sentiment in the mid-tier segment and realize its fair value. Any success in subsequent mass-market land tenders will likely be RNAV-accretive and provide a further catalyst for the stock. Allgreen remains our top mid-cap pick, with a TP of S$1.39. DBS Group Research . Equity 24 August 2009 |
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| 03-Sep-2009 15:59 |
Allgreen
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Allgreen - Can buy ?
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Breakout from key resistance suggest further upside: Positive breakout. Allgreen Properties is likely to reach higher after breaking out of the flag pattern and above the key supportturned- resistance level of $1.09 on heavy volume. Upside momentum intact. With the RSI trending higher towards the overbought region and the MACD indicator signaling a strong bullish crossover recently, these seem to suggest strength in the current upside momentum. Target price at S1.33-$1.38. Should the breakout materialize, we expect the target price at around $1.33-$1.38 (also happen to be a key support-turned-resistance level). Subsequently, we see the next resistance at $1.66 (peak in Dec ‘07). Initial support at $1.09. Beyond the immediate support at $1.09, the subsequent supports are pegged at $0.87 (Jul ’09 low), followed by $0.63 (key resistance-turned-support level). http://www.ocbcresearch.com/pdf_reports/technical/Technical%20Analysis%20-%20Allgreen%20-%20090724.pdf |
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| 03-Sep-2009 15:43 |
Allgreen
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Allgreen - Can buy ?
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A commentary at the date of this announcement of the significant trends and competitive conditions of the industry in which the group operates and any known factors or events that may affect the group in the next reporting period and the next 12 months. April/May 2009 witnessed the beginning of an improvement in buying sentiment as buyers responded positively to favourable pricing by developers in new launches and relaunches. 4700 units were transacted in 2Q 2009 vs 2600 in 1Q 2009, together exceeding the 4264 units transacted for the whole of 2008. Allgreen benefitted from this improvement with more units sold in various developments in 2Q 2009 vs 1Q 2009. We also took the opportunity to launch One Devonshire in June 2009 with 148 units out of 152 sold to-date. On 3 August 2009, we relaunched the 235 units condominium, Viva, at Suffolk Walk, with 162 units sold todate. With the increased property sales and barring unforeseen circumstances and excluding fair value adjustments, Allgreen is expected to have an improved 2H 2009 over 2H 2008. |
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| 23-Aug-2009 02:08 |
Midas
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Midas
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What should you do if you have information concerning specific instances of market misconduct? If you have information concerning an instance of market misconduct, including information on insider trading or market manipulation, you can inform SGX by writing to: Market Surveillance & Enforcement Department, Risk Management & Regulation Group, Singapore Exchange Limited, 2 Shenton Way #19-00 SGX Centre 1, Singapore 068804 or click here for feedback. It would be useful for our investigation if you can provide the dates of the alleged market misconduct, the securities or derivatives products concerned, and the names of parties involved and their relationships. http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/corporate/cp-en/regulation/lodging_a_complaint |
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| 20-Aug-2009 10:01 |
Midas
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Midas
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JMO, Midas may regain ground above 15dEMA today. As at 19Aug09, Midas' EMA as follow: 15days EMA $0.846 25days EMA $0.835 50 days EMA $0.792 |
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| 18-Aug-2009 23:59 |
Midas
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Midas
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Normally i used leverage buy and sell based on FA, ema, william%, stochartis and bollinger bands. Midas' TA look good to me. |
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| 18-Aug-2009 23:39 |
Midas
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Midas
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Today Midas closed $0.850, has slight breakout 15ema ($0.849 indeed), (25ema is $0.836) and hold above $0.835 supporting level ! |
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| 17-Aug-2009 09:18 |
Midas
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Midas
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From OCBC Mon, 17 Aug 2009, 08:53:19 Market Pulse: Midas, Wilmar, Golden Agri, Tat Hong, PAH, Foreland, Hotel Grand, KS Energy, Rickmers & Z-OBEE (17 Aug 2009) FOCUS Midas Holdings Ltd: Buttressed valuations. Maintain BUY. fair value is S$1.05 Summary: Midas Holdings (Midas) posted 2Q09 revenue of S$37.8m (-2% YoY, +20% QoQ) and bottomline of S$9.4m (+10% YoY, +11% QoQ). Maximum utilisation and current favourable cost-plus contracts aided its performance. Midas will be building three downstream fabrication lines for a total of ~S$45m that will be able to process 1000 train cars/year. The three lines are part of Midas’ strategy to cement its dominance and sustain margins in the domestic railway industry as it transforms into one-stop shop for aluminium train profiles and components. The company’s RMB1.4b order book will likely be filled more when the PRC government awards its 2nd phase of train contracts for 4000+ train cars. Today, Midas’ firm order book and more anticipated contract wins in Sep-Nov 09 for both NPRT and itself will serve to under-gird valuations. We have pegged Midas at 20x (prev. 18x) FY10F PER and our fair value is S$1.05 (prev. S$0.93). Maintain BUY. (Kelly Chia) Wilmar: 2Q09 results mostly in line Summary: Wilmar reported its 2Q09 results last Friday; revenue was down 27.0% YoY at US$5,712.3m, but net profit rose 22.7% to US$407.2m. On a sequential basis, revenue rose 15.2%, which was 9.9% ahead of our estimate, while earnings rose 7.2%, about 0.5% below our forecast. For the half year, revenue fell 28.7% to US$10,670.4m, meeting 42.0% of our FY09 estimate, while net profit gained 16.6% to US$787.1m, or nearly 60.8% of our full-year number. Management remains upbeat about its 2H09 prospects. We are raising our FY09 and FY10 earnings estimates by 18.9% and 14.4%, respectively, to reflect its better profitability. This in turn improves our fair value from S$5.78 to S$7.28, still based on 20x blended FY09/FY10 PER. Maintain BUY. (Carey Wong) Golden Agri-Resources Ltd: Maintain HOLD Summary: Golden Agri Resources (GAR) released its 2Q09 results on Friday; revenue was down 30.7% YoY but rebounded 37.2% QoQ to US$565.6m; net profit tumbled 64.7% YoY but was up nearly 543.0% QoQ to US$55.1m. Operationally, it appears that the worst of the previous tree stress (due to the drought in 2006) has passed; management is hopeful of seeing better production numbers in 2H09. And while there may be a possible El Nino effect this year, management believes that the impact will probably be felt some 12 months later. We have also raised our CPO assumptions for this year from US$600/ton to US$620/ton, and this in turn bumps up our FY09 revenue forecast by 6.8%; but only raised our net profit estimate by 4.2% as GAR will still need to work through the excess fertilizer that it had bought at a much higher price late last year. Using a higher 12x blended FY09/FY10 EPS valuation (vs. 10x previously), our fair value will rise from S$0.35 to S$0.45. Given the limited upside, we maintain our HOLD rating. (Carey Wong) |
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| 14-Aug-2009 08:03 |
Midas
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Midas
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From DBS 12Aug09 Target price raised to S$1.10, maintain BUY. Strong order book and bidding for more contracts: With an order book of RMB1.5bn to fulfill from 2Q09 onwards, Midas’ aluminium extrusion lines (including the 3rd line) are already fully booked until the end of 2010. The Group is also bidding for more contracts as China continues to spend on developing its railway system. At the same time, Midas’ associate Nanjing Puzhen* (NPRT) also has a strong order book of RMB4.5bn and is gunning for more projects in various cities........ *Midas holds 32.5% equity stake in Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport Co., Ltd (NPRT) which is one of only four rolling stock companies licensed to undertake metro projects in the PRC on a nationwide basis. http://www.midas.com.sg/corporate/structure_g.aspx |
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