Latest Posts By elfinchilde
- Elite
About elfinchilde
|
|
| 20-Sep-2008 16:01 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
 Go to Message
|
||||
 x 0
 x 0
|
concur. same reading for me via techs and macros. :)
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 20-Sep-2008 15:53 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 3
x 0
|
well, with the current market turnabout, me guess i don't havta say anything, eh? hehe. this is why it's always important to keep cool and to keep rational. if you don't personally have the stomach for risk---as those of you who were enveloped by panic the past week should know by now--then, simply, DON'T take that risk. Put it this way: if you watched the market from monday to friday, you'd have seen it tanked from ~2570 to lowest ~2301 and back to 2559. Heartstopping rollercoaster ride, likely to induce panic and mistaken buy/sells. BUT if you were a longterm investor? Last friday, 2570. Yesterday, 2559. (i can't rem the exact figures). What's the change? -11.6pts only. So where's the panic? 
Frankly, if you ask me, most singaporeans, even though they love gambling, aren't suited to be shortterm traders. They're better suited to be longterm holders. Just ask a couple of questions and you'd know already. 1) If your friend asks you, "let's go for a weekend holiday in malaysia next week and go bungee jumping and skydiving!", do you go "Yes, let's!  " or do you go, "eh, you siao ah?!!  "
2) Do you play 4D, ToTo, horse racing, soccer betting (without hedging. you guys should have seen my analysis sheet for the world cup  ) etcetc gambling?
If your answer to (1) is the former and to (2) a "no", then, you're likely suited to be a trader. If you're of the "eh, siao ah!" and "yes, buy 4D/Toto/etc" camp, then, you may not be suited to trading. those wondering when market will recover, the answer is: not so soon. but has bottom been reached? my personal opinion is that it's in the process already. now we wait for the TA signal: a higher low to be formed. That is the earliest sign of a reversal of the downtrend. oh, and the USD must strengthen and hold. if above criteria is fulfilled, we have an up in the works! (of coure, not a straight line up). cheers! |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 19-Sep-2008 02:12 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 2
x 0
|
i can't sleep. 
am when i should be  . damn it.
watching the DJIA. it's hilarious. goes from -100 to positive in like, a few minutes. meanwhile, gold is shooting through the roof--largest one day rise in the past 10 years yesterday--as panicked investors pile in like mad cattle. it has moved something like 11 standard deviations out of the norm. Banks are falling over themselves to merge, and even in s'pore, we have a run on poor AIA. 
Certainly extraordinary conditions. For those who haven't lost their heads yet and are puzzled at all this, (alternatively you're one of those who have lost their heads and have bailed out of your insurance policy plus sold off all your counters).....what you're seeing here is pure psychology: Fear. Quite simply, people aren't thinking any more. they're just stampeding with the herd. And throwing out quite a few babies with the bath water. Above TA and FA is the factor of market psychology. In Graham's words (i can't remember the exact phrase), that "The market is a pendulum that swings forever between unwarranted pessimism and irrational exuberance." Greed, fear, blind hope. You understand these three and their dynamics, you understand the basic instincts that rule the market. So general advice to all (my mailbox is kinda swamped, apologies if i take longer to reply): step back, take a deep breath. Really--and i mean really--look at your portfolio. Are they dud stocks, or good stocks? What makes you say so? What is your plan? And if you don't have one, it's time to start devising one. When fear controls the market and everyone is behaving like mindless sheep or stampeding lemmings, the way to counteract is through pure, cool rationality. Had said many times before, that anyone can profit in a bull market. But the true test of a trader/investor is in a bear market. How cool are you in the face of mass hysteria? This is exactly what will determine your profit level. So really. Am putting out here a call for calmness and rationality. Mindless stampedes are for cattle, not investors nor traders. cheers! |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 18-Sep-2008 19:24 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
oh and i still think that if SGX was really concerned about "market openness and a fair playing ground", then they should take a leaf out of the US right now and ban naked shorts. You can be sure more than half the vol of SGX will be gone. which is precisely why they won't do it. haha. cheers! |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 18-Sep-2008 19:18 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
oh yea. the trend is your friend indeed. the trend not only of the market, but of your own personality. look closely at the market: the STI is down, that's for sure. Most stocks aren't done downtrending yet. But are all stocks down? Are there some which have consistently resisted their bottoms, even and especially today? The trend is not only the general market's trend. Bear markets are approx two years on the STI. The depth is in the middle. If we count Oct 07 as the start of the bear, where are we now at? But of course, follow the trend. Don't second guess. A support's a support if and only if price pings off the line. If not, it's just another blip on the chart. You wait. It pays, however, to know what you are waiting for, and when, and why. "The best time to buy is when there is blood on the streets." til then, it's time for the elf. when ppl are panicking and running about like headless chickens, why do you join them for? Waste of energy. 
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 18-Sep-2008 19:06 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0
|
was out today. just reposting here from the capland thread, where there was an ongoing discussion about banks collapsing and stocks going down to zero cents etc. just for the nervy people. ...pls, when market is panicking and the alarms are going off and everyone is going die, die, die, the ONE thing you need to do: KEEP COOL. don't throw the baby out with the bath water. geez. relax lah. 
-------- erm. i think you guys need to properly understand the concept of 'banks'.... s'pore banks are deposit-focused. They have capital requirements and stringent rules. Eg, foreign banks operating here are required to ring-fence their money from their overseas branches. investment banks--like MS, ML, Lehman, GS--derive most of their money from shareholders. What they also do is to provide 'soft' services, like financial advisory etc. But most of their income is from one source: proprietary trading. 60% of their income is from there. So they have a pool of shareholders giving money, they take huge leverage on that, 200x, 400x, and they play the markets (yen carry trades sound familiar to anyone?). Essentially, they're big time gamblers. Straightaway: is that a sound business model? And then: are asian banks the same? Are other counters here the same? You really think a company with solid NTA can go to zero the way these fellas did? Judge for yourselves. This is FA. When markets are irrational, all the more ya gotta keep cool. If you really know your work, you shouldn't be panicking. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 18-Sep-2008 19:02 |
CapitaLand
/
CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
erm. i think you guys need to properly understand the concept of 'banks'.... s'pore banks are deposit-focused. They have capital requirements and stringent rules. Eg, foreign banks operating here are required to ring-fence their money from their overseas branches. investment banks--like MS, ML, Lehman, GS--derive most of their money from shareholders. What they also do is to provide 'soft' services, like financial advisory etc. But most of their income is from one source: proprietary trading. 60% of their income is from there. So they have a pool of shareholders, they take huge leverage, 200x, 400x, and they play the markets (yen carry trades sound familiar to anyone?). Essentially, they're big time gamblers. Straightaway: is that a sound business model? And then: are asian banks the same? Are other counters here the same? You really think a company with solid NTA can go to zero the way these fellas did? Judge for yourselves. This is FA. When markets are irrational, all the more ya gotta keep cool. If you really know your work, you shouldn't be panicking. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 17-Sep-2008 16:15 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 2
x 0
|
two what?? 
the big 5 were (in order from 1 to 5): Goldman sachs, morgan stanley, merrill lynch, lehman brothers, bear sterns. The last two have collapsed, ML sold itself to BoA. Left standing are GS and MS. The first, especially, by virtue of an exceptional team of prop traders. can't beat them on the markets. Note that MS and GS control the ICE exchange (which trades oil). GS' balance sheet is better than MS, because they wisely side-stepped the subprime loan. Essentially, these 'investment' and 'wealth management' banks generate income by massively overleveraging and in essence, punting on the global markets. Which was why i had said that to put out fires in their own backyards, they short Asia. Easiest way to make income. imagine: they have billions, we have millions. Queues are thin. Who wins? So of the foreigners eventually left to play the game: GS, MS, UBS and Citi. Good. because ML is one of the biggest shortists around. They were one of those who tanked cosco to its pitiable state today. The less of these big guns there are, the better it is for real investors. Plus the lesson to them should make them more wary of overleveraging now, which is why, i suspect, once all this is over, you'll find more stable markets since less foreign BBs to rampantly and blatantly short/ramp up counters. at least, i should hope so. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 17-Sep-2008 13:48 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
usually, when there's a sudden scrambling to buy and a very rapid rise in share price within a few minutes. eg, the capland "bounce" yesterday from about 394 to 408 within one hour. it tends to happen because of a chain effect: px suddenly ups a couple of cents, ppl panic and rush to cover back (esp if external news trigger). because queues both ways are thin, so it's very easy for BBs to catch out both shorts and longs. shorts are especially vulnerable if they're only doing intraday shorting. cheers!
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 17-Sep-2008 13:34 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0
|
macros so of the 5 biggest banks, 3 have collapsed. There is left Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley. A large reason why these 'banks' collapsed is because they overleveraged. Essentially, they were the biggest traders globally, and they lost, because they did not manage their risk. Should offer comfort to the small fries: if even these 'Big Boys' don't know better, how about retailers? hehe. The interesting thing is forward looking. What are the implications then, for the STI/Asia? Note that more than 60% of their revenues came from trading, and not 'investment', as they always like to claim. So with 3 of the biggest gone, if i may venture a guess, it is this: you'll see more stable trading ahead, since there are only a couple of foreign BBs left (aside from hedge funds); which means the local BBs--once they recuperate--will likely rule the roost. What this means for traders: more predictable patterns, and more volatile, contained spikes. You'll likely see the pennies and second-liners, especially the ones favoured by local BBs--'decouple' from the main STI. So value hunters should stick to the blues. When all bad news are out, and everything is oversold and everyone is saying "doom doom die", it can only mean one thing: markets are close to the end of pessimism. And hence, the chance to buy for longterm is good now. After all, if you look long term: in end-2009, 2010, to 2012. Where do you think the market will be then? Everything moves in cycles. What's oversold will become overbought; what's overbought will become oversold. Go slow and go small, though. Always have more bullets, always have an exit plan. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 15-Sep-2008 17:52 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
novena, the buy is given by candlesticks, not just by touching the line. also, can use shorter term charts to determine the entry (too much to put out in one post). keep in mind i gave the weekly charts, not daily. The upper channel was formed 99 to '00; the prediction of the lowest low (formation of the 2nd channel) can be calculated by FA and/or fibo. But basically, if you're DCA, and the channel broke, you choose then not to buy nor sell, but to wait for the low to form. And then, pattern resumes. and talk about a crazy market. Newsflow now is that fed may cut tonight even. Oil is down to 97, the UJ is tanking to kingdom come, BUT the Euro/USD went down too. Ah, market shenanigans. Gotta love the market.
livermore, no prob! happy trading! |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 15-Sep-2008 15:24 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
watch at 745 line, if break, wait for the 5 or whenever it turns. If it turns up from here (keep in mind, these are WEEKLY charts, not daily), it's a buy. Again: "support" lines are just lines. They are psychological barriers more than anything. The movement of a trader is on the confirmatory candle after the line. If it's under, it's a short, if it holds, it's a buy. Not so simple as every line = buy/sell. pointer: depends. the aim of the fed was originally to keep inflation in check. but the banks went into excess greed--all this trouble, really, had nothing to do with asia. it was the US which packaged their subprime mortages, it was the US which sold toxic bonds, it's the US which is failing. and hence dragging down everyone else with them. So now it's decision for the Fed. Keep inflation down, or shore up the market? Time and again they've made their decision clear: shore up the market. Why else would they step into Freddie/Fannie/Bear Sterns, and now offer a life line to the banks? Did you guys know, there was a top secret meeting between the Fed, the heads of UBS, JPM and Citi on Sunday evening? http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=106253 It is from these movers and shakers that markets will take their direction. and you can bet that when they're on loss, what's they'll do is to screw everything else to save themselves. If they do cut, they're essentially driving their economy into the ground to bail out the excesses of wall street. Creating a divergence: USD down, stocks hold. Oil prices may not go higher: It is possible to have a deflation scenario. What i like is how greenspan is out there talking crap now about "more than 50% chance of a recession", when in the first place, he was the one who created all this by giving cheap loans to people who can't afford it. Ah, the greed of the rich knows no bounds.
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 15-Sep-2008 14:43 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
ah thanks. i couldn't rem what they had averaged it down to. haha. i'd say they were lucky more than smart. but it shows very well how DCA can work for those with deep pockets. (our money wat....) be careful of fed rate cut tmrw. see if it'll actually come true. haha.
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 15-Sep-2008 14:36 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
ok, i'm very realistic. for me, the charts are everything. So here's a live eg of what i mean by DCA, and why, especially for retailers who dno't have time to watch the markets and who have no appetite to trade everyday, a consistent, longterm strategy pays much better. The following is the 10 year, weekly chart of OCBC. One of the best counters to do longterm DCA on. Notice how, in 10 years, you only enter five trades and exit once. If you buy accordingly, assuming same no: of lots, your ave buy px is 4.066. Your sell is 8.95. That's more than a 100% return in 7 years. Excluding dividend yield, which is on average about 5% p.a. It works out to a comfortable approx 20% return p.a. That's for just doing 6 trades in 7 years. Quite simply, buy at channel bottom when indicators show oversold. Sell only at channel top when indicators are overbought. Remember: the frame is LONGTERM: 5 years at least. All that is needed is nerves and consistency. Follow the charts. Do not get distracted by intraday noise. 
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 15-Sep-2008 14:17 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
good post, derricktan. thanks! :) juzztrade, DCA = dollar cost averaging. It's what a lot of financial advisors will tell you to do: set aside a monthly sum, and keep putting in whether market goes up or down. So that in the end, you have an average buy price, which is like what Goldilocks would say, "not too hot, not too cold". Not too high, not too low. There are advantages and disadvantages to this method, which is why, when the topic of it crops up, inevitably you'll find a lot of passionate arguments about it. hehe. Perhaps to give a more unbiased view, i'll just lay out its pros and cons, so other forumers can decide for themselves if it's a good strat for themselves or not. Advantages: -It allows you to have reserve capital, so that when a stock goes down, you still have reserves to buy in. Can be highly profitable. Eg, if you'd bought at Aug 17th last year, the day of the big crash, you'd have reaped rewards of 20% or more barely a month later on most of the blues. -Best applied as a longterm strategy, really, rather than rapid trading. Applied rightly on good counters, bear years, your loss is limited by dividend gains. Bull years, you lock in capital gains + dividend gains. Most suited for those who can ride out intraday/month volatility, and who have a 3-5 year time frame. Disadvantages: -sometimes, esp in bear markets, you may be sitting on huge paper losses. Not everyone can take this. The difference is this: Because it is DCA, you'd always have reserve cash. So down markets are actually buy opportunities. (ie, those who DCA, but find themselves out of cash and the stock still going down: you may have applied the strat wrongly. Alt, was not thought out correctly) -DCA does NOT work for all stocks. Which is why time and again, i've emphasised on right stock selection. FA principles need to be your guide, DCA only works on companies with a long track record and history of consistent recovery in bear markets. Eg, OCBC is a good DCA stock. ST engg can be DCAed. As can sembcorp. What should NOT be DCAed--Any of the rapid trading counters. Including china counters and CPO plays. If you mount a DCA operation on those, make sure you're prepared to take a steep loss as well, when in the end, a cut may be warranted. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 15-Sep-2008 13:54 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
to tie together everything (macros): newsflow today has been fast and furious, which is why markets and forex has been chaotic: guys in forex will know what i mean. the pairs have been hilariously confused, since EVERYTHING is weak, and it's a guess of what is weaker. Lehman has filed for Chapter 11 (bankruptcy protection). ML--intelligent move--is selling itself to BoA for 29 per share. AIG is going to raise 50bil. Oil meanwhile, has quietly snuck below 100 per barrel. Remember what i had said earlier: Fed intervention, they need to drop oil below 95 per barrel to flush out the longs the hedge funds had on commods. Expect europe to open with bloodshed, thereby dragging STI down further. May be endgame soon. Oh and one more thing being whispered about in the inner trading circles: Sept 16 Fed meeting. Rate cut. cheers! |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 15-Sep-2008 13:40 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
news update as per pasted below. always keep an eye on the news, because traders react to it. so foreknowledge is forearmed. and haha. livermore/stupidfool, i'd appreciate it if you both could just state your point and leave it as that. arguing til the cows come home on whether paper loss or riding it out is better, isn't going to change the facts of the game, ya know. Besides, you guys are talking on generalities. A key missing point in the equation is stock selection. There are some stocks you can do DCA on, there are some stocks you can have a paper loss in. BUT, there are also some stocks that are immediate trading cuts, and which longterm loss is not acceptable. (eg, it is why i put the stop on yl and had emphasised on it.) In this kind of market, really, you'd be hardpressed to find a trader or investor who's not sitting on loss. real or paper. So the question then for you two: arguing simply for sake of ego, or genuine learning? If it's the latter, good. If it's the former, cease and desist. For the record though, may i say this (strictly my own opinion): paper loss is real loss. It is only a question then: where can the stock go? Your timeframe comes into play. And between a DCA and an early stop loss, a stop loss is always better. Peace, peeps. Raised tempers and egos don't help trading or investing. Cheers! ----------- American International Group will announce an asset sale or capital injection as soon as tonight, or sometime tomorrow, CNBC has learned. The insurance giant, which declined comment, is pursuing a three-part plan to raise $50 billion in liquidity. It is trying to raise billions from private equity firms, and is also in talks with Warren Buffett, CNBC has learned. Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., the third- biggest U.S. securities firm, is in merger talks with Bank of America Corp., people with knowledge of the negotiations said. Wall Street seemed to be preparing for a bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers Sunday as a special trading session for credit default swaps was called. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 15-Sep-2008 12:24 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
eh. wait. jj, temasek bought ML at 48, didn't they? (-_-).......sian, no wonder MRT fares all go up. hahahahaha. | ||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 15-Sep-2008 12:08 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
If you try a strategy and it is a wrong one, one needs to analyse what went wrong and change accordingly. Consistent application of a wrong strategy will lead to consistent losses. Eh. I meant chosen strat that works for you. for those who've been around, their strats are tried and proven already, and more often than not, losses result because one deviates from the strat. There is also a need to keep longsighted. HLJ pointed out rightly: paper loss may not always be paper loss. it all depends on how well you've researched your FA counter*. The fact remains that 95% of all traders lose. For retailers without much technical skills and sources of news, frankly, i advocate going longterm (longterm trading, or FA holding). Overtrading dilutes profit. *having said that: there's also a need to realise that very few counters here can be considered to be solid FA counters. Even with this fall, few of the blues are at or below their NAV. ie strictly speaking, by FA terms, they are still expensive. Oh, and china and CPO plays are NOT value counters. They are growth stocks. cheers! |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 14-Sep-2008 17:48 |
Others
/
Forex Junction
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
haha. of course there are sharks. but there's a VERY big difference living with sharks in a small drying pond, and living with sharks in a big wide ocean. The aim is survival, isn't it? if you'd read my retailers thread, you'll know i spoke of EU manipulation since jul. ;) cheers!
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| First < Newer 201-220 of 2759 Older> Last |