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| 20-Jul-2009 21:26 |
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S&P 500 to Post Biggest Gain Since 1982, Goldman Says (Update2) By Sarah Jones and Roger Neill July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. boosted its forecast for the Standard & Poor 500 Index, saying improving earnings will spur the steepest second-half rally since 1982. The benchmark index for U.S. stocks will advance 15 percent from its June 30 level to 1,060 on Dec. 31, an increase from David Kostin’s prior projection of 940. The chief U.S. investment strategist at New York-based Goldman Sachs also lifted his 2009 and 2010 earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies to $52 and $75 a share, which are 30 percent and 19 percent higher than prior estimates. Profits that beat analysts’ forecasts at companies from New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. to Intel Corp. in Santa Clara, California, helped boost the S&P 500 by 7 percent last week, the biggest gain in four months. Since March 9, the gauge has rebounded 39 percent amid speculation the economy is recovering. “Improvement in ex-financial earnings per share, stabilization in profit margins and higher forward EPS guidance all point to a rising market through 2009,” Kostin wrote in a report today. Kostin is now tied with Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG’s Binky Chadha for the second-highest S&P 500 forecast among 10 Wall Street strategists tracked by Bloomberg News. Only JPMorgan’s Thomas Lee, at 1,100, is more bullish. Barclays Plc’s Barry Knapp, who had been the most pessimistic U.S. strategist, boosted his projection a week ago following the 40 percent surge in the S&P 500 between March and June, the biggest gain since the 1930s. Surprising Strength Knapp raised his year-end target 23 percent to 930, saying he’d failed to foresee the size of the advance since the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9. His increase left Kevin Gardiner of HSBC Holdings Plc and Jason Todd of Morgan Stanley tied for the lowest S&P 500 projection at 900. JPMorgan, the second-largest U.S. bank, climbed 14 percent last week after saying profit rose for the first time since 2007 on record investment banking fees. Intel, the biggest semiconductor company, added 17 percent after lifting its forecast for third-quarter revenue. Financial institutions and technology makers have led the S&P 500’s gain since March 9, adding 95 percent and 52 percent. The average year-end S&P 500 prediction among the 10 Wall Street strategists followed by Bloomberg News is now 997. In an interview with Bloomberg Radio today, Jim O’Neill, Goldman Sachs’s chief economist, said the U.S. may return to growth in the second half. He cited government data on employment as showing “we have probably seen the worst.” The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since January, depressed by shifts in the timing of auto plant shutdowns. To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net; Roger Neill in London at rneill3@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: July 20, 2009 08:44 EDT |
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| 20-Jul-2009 18:52 |
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Leading Index May Signal U.S. Economy Nearing End of Recession By Bob Willis July 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading indicators probably rose in June for a third consecutive month, another sign the economy may be emerging from the worst recession in five decades, economists said before a report today. The Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.5 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 46 economists. It would be the first time the index has climbed for three months in a row since 2004. Smaller job losses, rising stock prices and stabilization in homebuilding and manufacturing are evidence that government efforts to stem the financial crisis and lower borrowing costs may pay off. A jobless rate that is forecast to reach 10 percent and falling home values are a reminder that any expansion will be muted as consumers rein in spending and boost savings. “The recession is winding down but the strength of the recovery remains in question,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “The weak labor market is a hurdle.” The New York-based Conference Board’s index is due at 10 a.m. Survey estimates ranged from a 0.3 percent drop to a gain of 1 percent. A widening spread between the 10-year Treasury note, where yields rose based on mounting speculation of an economic recovery, and the overnight fed funds rate will be one of the biggest reasons behind the projected gain in the leading index, according to Michael Englund, chief U.S. economist at Action Economic LLC in Boulder, Colorado. Stocks Rise A 2.6 percent gain in the average level of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index in June from the prior month also contributed. The stock index has soared about 39 percent since March 9 -- when it reached its lowest level in more than 12 years -- as data signaled the worst of the downturn has passed. Stocks have continued to rise this month, with the S & P 500 adding another 2.3 percent since the end of June, on stronger-than-expected bank earnings and more signs the economy is stabilizing. The leading index probably got more support from a decline in average weekly initial jobless claims in June to 616,000 from 627,000 in May, as firings slowed. Increases in home construction will also contribute. Building permits rose 8.7 percent in June from the prior month, the biggest gain in a year, the Commerce Department said last week. Brighter Outlook Economists surveyed by Bloomberg from July 2 to July 8 projected the U.S. economy will grow at an average 1.5 percent pace in the second half of the year after falling at an estimated 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter. They also said the jobless rate will surpass 10 percent by early 2010. Seven of the 10 indicators for the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and supplier delivery times. The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital goods, and the money supply adjusted for inflation. Bloomberg News
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LEI
MOM%
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Date of Release 07/20
Observation Period June
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Median 0.5%
Average 0.5%
High Forecast 1.0%
Low Forecast -0.3%
Number of Participants 46
Previous 1.2%
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Action Economics 0.5%
AIG Investments 0.5%
Aletti Gestielle SGR 0.8%
Ameriprise Financial Inc 0.4%
Argus Research Corp. 0.7%
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 0.2%
Bantleon Bank AG 0.6%
Barclays Capital 0.5%
BBVA 0.8%
BMO Capital Markets 0.4%
BNP Paribas 0.5%
Capital Economics 0.5%
Commerzbank AG 0.3%
Credit Suisse 0.6%
DekaBank 0.5%
Desjardins Group 1.0%
Deutsche Bank Securities 0.5%
Deutsche Postbank AG 0.3%
DZ Bank 0.4%
First Trust Advisors 0.9%
FTN Financial 0.6%
Helaba 0.5%
HSBC Markets 0.8%
IDEAglobal 0.4%
IHS Global Insight 0.9%
Informa Global Markets 0.4%
ING Financial Markets 0.5%
Insight Economics 0.8%
Johnson Illington Advisor 0.6%
Landesbank Berlin 0.3%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc 0.5%
Merrill Lynch 0.2%
Moody’s Economy.com 0.8%
Morgan Keegan & Co. 0.8%
Morgan Stanley & Co. 0.5%
Nomura Securities Intl. 0.5%
PNC Bank -0.3%
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 0.7%
Schneider Foreign Exchang 0.0%
Stone & McCarthy Research 0.5%
TD Securities 0.5%
UniCredit Research 0.8%
Wells Fargo & Co. 0.8%
WestLB AG 0.5%
Westpac Banking Co. 0.4%
Woodley Park Research 0.8%
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To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 20, 2009 00:00 EDT |
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| 20-Jul-2009 18:50 |
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Stocks, Oil Rise on Optimism Earnings Show Slump Is Bottoming By Justin Carrigan July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks, oil and emerging-market currencies rose, sending the yen and the dollar lower on optimism improved corporate earnings will show the global economy is bottoming. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index climbed more than 1 percent as of 9:44 a.m. in London, gaining for a sixth straight day, the longest winning streak since March. Crude oil added 1.5 percent for a fourth day of gains. The ruble strengthened 1.9 percent against the dollar, leading a rally in emerging-market currencies. About 76 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index that have reported earnings since July 8 beat analysts’ estimates. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., India’s largest software exporter, climbed 16 percent after its earnings topped estimates. Stocks also gained on optimism lender CIT Group Inc. will get emergency loans from creditors to avert bankruptcy. “Corporate profits are beating expectations by their widest margins in a year, pushing most equity markets within a whisker of new year-to-date highs and the dollar toward its 2009 lows,” John Normand, head of global currency strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London, wrote in a research note. The yen fell 1.7 percent against the New Zealand dollar and 1.6 percent against the Australian dollar. It dropped 1.5 percent compared with the pound. The U.S. dollar declined against every major currency except the yen, and Normand said he expects the U.S. currency to extend its drop this month. Emerging Markets All 22 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg except Israel’s shekel advanced against the dollar. Malaysia’s ringgit led gains in Asia, rising 1 percent, while South Africa’s rand appreciated 0.9 percent on the rally in commodities and after Absa Group Ltd. Chairwoman Gill Marcus was named as successor to central bank Governor Tito Mboweni. Emerging-market stocks climbed for a fifth day, the longest stretch of gains in 10 weeks. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased 2.2 percent to the highest intraday level since June 3. Tata posted the steepest advance in the 22-country gauge after saying first-quarter profit rose 23 percent on lower costs and a weaker dollar that boosted the value of overseas earnings. Oil for August delivery rose 93 cents to $64.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Refiners in China, the world’s second-largest oil user, raised their operating rates to a 16- month high, according to CBI China, a Shanghai-based commodities researcher. Six-Day Gain The MSCI World Index, a measure for 23 developed nations, climbed 0.7 percent as basic-resource producers and financial firms increased. The gauge is up for a sixth straight day, the longest stretch of gains since May. Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.3 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan jumped 2.8 percent. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Caterpillar Inc., Microsoft Corp. and American Express Co. are among companies scheduled to report results this week. Analysts forecast that earnings in the S&P 500 dropped 33 percent on average in the second quarter. Treasuries fell for a second day, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up 4 basis points to 3.69 percent, the highest level since June 22, as traders bet an index of U.S. leading indicators increased in June for a third month. The Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months probably climbed 0.5 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 46 economists. It would be the first time the index has advanced for three consecutive months since 2004. CIT Jumps The U.S., Europe and Japan are grappling with their first simultaneous recessions since World War II after the collapse of subprime mortgages two years ago froze credit markets, spurring about $1.5 trillion in losses and writedowns at financial firms. The U.S. economy will shrink 2.5 percent this year, after growing 1.1 percent last year, according to the median of 61 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg News. CIT, which failed to win additional financial support from the U.S. government last week, jumped 80 percent in Frankfurt trading, following a 54 percent slump last week. Expectations of a deal between CIT and its bondholders “has helped lift investor confidence further after positive earnings reports from the U.S. last week,” Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London, said in a report today. Improving sentiment in European credit markets sent default swaps on the high-yield Markit iTraxx Crossover index down by 17 basis points to a five-week low of 685, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices. Credit-default swaps, which are used to hedge against losses and speculate on credit quality, also declined for banks and insurers, with the Markit iTraxx Financial index dropping 5.5 basis points to 101, the lowest since the gauge started trading in March. To contact the reporter on this story: Justin Carrigan in London at jcarrigan@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 20, 2009 05:20 EDT |
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| 20-Jul-2009 18:44 |
China Sports
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China Sport
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Not only is CSI bullish, so is Hongxin, as it had broke out of the bullish contracting triangle continuation patter n formed higher high n high low with a string of bullish indicators (see Hongxin thread)
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| 20-Jul-2009 17:51 |
China Sports
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China Sport
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It is definitely not a bearish flag. A bearish flag occurs in a downtrend with up-sloping channel, if u dun get wat I mean, google "Bearish Flag pattern". In fact, looking at the chart, it is a bullish flag bcos it uptrend since 16/3 with a down-sloping channel since 18/5.
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| 20-Jul-2009 16:46 |
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European Stocks, U.S. Futures Advance; Shares in Asia Rally By Daniela Silberstein July 20 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks climbed for a sixth straight day, the longest stretch of gains in almost four months, as commodities prices increased. Asian shares and U.S. futures advanced. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, rose 3 percent in London as copper rallied to a nine-month high. Lloyds Banking Group Plc gained 5.2 percent after a report the lender may report a first-half profit. CIT Group Inc. jumped 84 percent in Germany as a person briefed on the board’s deliberations said the 101-year-old commercial-finance company may announce a financing agreement. The MSCI World Index advanced 0.6 percent as of 8:31 a.m. in London. The gauge of 23 developed nations surged 6.6 percent last week, the biggest rally in four months, after U.S. companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Johnson & Johnson reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 0.9 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index increased 2.8 percent, set to close at its highest level since September. Japan is closed for a holiday. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.3 percent. A report that may show the gauge of leading indicators in the U.S. climbed for a third consecutive month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. BHP, Rio Tinto BHP Billiton gained 3 percent to 1,486 pence. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, climbed 2.9 percent to 2,217 pence. Copper in Shanghai increased for a fifth day, heading for the longest rally since March, on optimism demand for the metal will pick up as the global recession eases. Peter Hambro Mining Plc increased 5.2 percent to 629.5 pence after the second-biggest producer of gold in Russia said first-half output gained 54 percent from a year earlier. Lloyds advanced 5.2 percent to 71 pence. The bank whose largest shareholder is the British government may post a profit for the first six months of the year after accounting rules allowed it to write back billions of pounds of sub-prime investments, the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information. British home sellers raised asking prices this month to meet increased demand from buyers, Rightmove Plc said. The average cost of a home rose 0.6 percent to 227,864 pounds ($372,000) after falling 0.4 percent in June, the operator of the U.K.’s biggest residential property Web site said today. Prices in London had the first annual gain of the year so far. CIT Rallies CIT Group surged 84 percent to $1.29. The 101-year-old commercial-finance company seeking to ward off bankruptcy may announce an agreement for $3 billion in financing from bondholders as soon as today, said the person, who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential. CIT needs time to strike deals with bondholders to reduce debt after the U.S. declined to give the firm a second bailout. The funds would give the New York-based company a chance to restructure its debt outside of bankruptcy, the person said. Total SA added 0.8 percent to 38.91 euros as crude oil rallied above $64 a barrel. The cheapest valuations in at least 14 years are making oil companies too alluring to pass up for UBS AG and Guggenheim Partners LLC, even though earnings in the industry may fall 48 percent this year. Oil and gas producers in the MSCI World traded at $7.84 per dollar of profit this month, less than half the average of $17.10 in the gauge of developed markets and the widest gap since at least 1995, data compiled by Bloomberg show. UBS, Guggenheim and Cohen & Steers Inc. are buying stocks from Exxon Mobil Corp. to Transocean Ltd. because an economic rebound will lift the industry after it generated at least 50 percent more profits than any other group in the past year. To contact the reporter on this story: Daniela Silberstein in Zurich at dsilberstei2@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: July 20, 2009 03:33 EDT |
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| 20-Jul-2009 15:48 |
Sakari
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Straits Asia
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1. Formed a bullish flag n broke above the upper channel resistance line. 2. Now formed a higher high n higher low. 3.Price above the 3 emas (15, 25 n 65ema) 4. MACD cut n turned up. 5. RSI still neutral at 50% |
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| 20-Jul-2009 15:40 |
China Hongxing
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Good News for China Hongxin
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1. Volume as at 3.30 pm had aredi surpassed last Fri's vol. 2. Formed higher high n higher low candle. 3. Price above the 3 emas (15, 25 n 65 ema), 4. MACD cut n turned upwards n 5. RSI turned upwards, cutting above the 50% line. All these bode well for Hongxin. Dyodd |
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| 20-Jul-2009 15:34 |
AusGroup
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AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m
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1. Volume as at 3.30 pm had aredi surpassed last Fri's vol. 2. Formed higher high n higher low candle. 3. Price above the 3 emas (15, 25 n 65 ema), 4. MACD cut n turned upwards n 5. RSI trending upwards, cutting above the 50% line. All these bode well for Ausgroup. Dyodd
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| 20-Jul-2009 11:37 |
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Most - S-Chip get ready to get 10-20% Price Hike
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Hi ronleech, I had gone the route u take now, I too started by following my instinct, listening to friends news, rumours, forum noises except short of using tools as I was too lazy n tot can make easy money using such short-cut but it was a short-cut to misery n I end up very miserable, though at times I do make but net still huge losses, trust me as I speak from my heart n sincerity as I do not wish to see u n newbies repeat the same misery route I had taken. I m not selling u any koyok, so u need not be apprehensive of my genuine advice. Remember, logic tells us tat every workman needs tools to do their work, hence, TA is a trader's tool just as satellite navigation is to ships n planes. However no trading tools is 100% guaranteed, hence, TA is not infallible, thus why I always advocate newbies to read the 3 golden mantras (do a search on my posting) n remember by heart, it will stand u in good stead. For your n fellow newbies convenience, I shall repeat the 3 golden mantras: 1. The trend is your friend., ie dun go against the trend. 2. Plan your trade n trade your plan - ie. look at the chart. search for buy indicators, time your entry but must set stop-loss point. 3. Cut losses short n let profit runs - we need to max our profits to cover all those losses n make net profit.
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| 20-Jul-2009 11:11 |
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Most - S-Chip get ready to get 10-20% Price Hike
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Read Sunday Times article pg 21 (World section) by Mark Mobius: China "to overtake Wall St in 3 years" |
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| 20-Jul-2009 11:04 |
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Most - S-Chip get ready to get 10-20% Price Hike
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Hi ronleech, No offence intended, just my sincere sharing, trust our own TA analysis, plan our trade n trade our plan, dun listen to all these "friend's news, rumours, blah...blah.. blah...", can be played to "holland". I m telling u from my personal experiences, end up losssing a lot of money listening to such tips from watever sources, remember, nobody owe us a living, we cant claim our losses from them. If u are a newbie, click on my nick n read all my sharing, past experience, advice , 3 golden mantras n the thread "Learning TA". I wish u all the best
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| 20-Jul-2009 10:49 |
AusGroup
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AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m
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As at the price now, forming a higher high n higher low, MACD cutting n turning upwards n RSI trending upwards, cutting above the 50% line n in less than 2 hrs of trading, volume is aredi catching up with Fri's volume. All in all, this should bode well for Ausgroup. Dyodd
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| 20-Jul-2009 10:43 |
China Hongxing
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Good News for China Hongxin
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Also, in less than 2 hours of trading, volume is almost catching up with Fri's volume.
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| 20-Jul-2009 10:41 |
China Hongxing
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Good News for China Hongxin
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As at the price now, forming a higher high n higher low n MACD cutting n turning upwards n RSI also turning upwards, touching the 50% line. Dyodd
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| 19-Jul-2009 22:57 |
China Sports
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China Sport
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Hi lsj840428, Dun mind I correct your mistake. It is definitely not a bearish flag. A bearish flag occurs in a downtrend with up-sloping channel, if u dun get wat I mean, google "Bearish Flag pattern". In fact, looking at the chart, it is a bullish flag bcos it uptrend since 16/3 with a down-sloping channel since 18/5.
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| 19-Jul-2009 17:19 |
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Most - S-Chip get ready to get 10-20% Price Hike
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Ooops. so sorry. forgot asking for S-chips.
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| 19-Jul-2009 16:23 |
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Most - S-Chip get ready to get 10-20% Price Hike
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Maybe Midas  Dyodd |
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| 19-Jul-2009 16:22 |
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Most - S-Chip get ready to get 10-20% Price Hike
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Maybe Ausgroup
Dyodd |
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| 19-Jul-2009 13:20 |
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Most - S-Chip get ready to get 10-20% Price Hike
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Hi petertan4949, Many thanks for your kind advice, however, I feels there is a need to set the records straight, thus the need to rebut lest those unwary forumers may be misled by those distorted posts or abuse of the rating system.
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