ShareJunction - Member Posts

x 1

x 0

Alwaays remember, wat is overbot can be even more overbot n wat is oversold can be more oversold, the key (general rule) is to see cut-up above 30% line to buy n cut-down below 70% to sell

ozone2002 ( Date: 23-Jul-2009 10:07) Posted:

past 2 days down bar on low vol..indicating no sellin pressure

however technicals looking over bought..

x 1

x 0

Also forming a bullish falling wedge continuation pattern on the weekly line chart.

richtan ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 17:05) Posted:

Forming a bullish flag continuation pattern on daily chart.

x 2

x 0

Japanese Exports Fall at Slower Pace as Slump Eases (Update3)

Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Jason Clenfield and Kyoko Shimodoi

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports fell in June at the slowest pace this year as demand picked up worldwide, helping the trade surplus widen for the first time in 20 months and setting the stage for an economic recovery.

Shipments abroad declined 35.7 percent from a year earlier, after dropping 40.9 percent in May, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The surplus widened to 508 billion yen ($5.4 billion).

Faster growth in China is propping up sales for Japanese manufacturers including Komatsu Ltd. and Nissan Motor Co. The recovery in shipments from the record collapse spurred by the financial crisis probably helped the economy grow for the first time in more than a year last quarter.

“There’s no doubt China has been a driving force for Japan’s exports,” said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “Manufacturers will probably continue to increase production amid the improvement in exports, and that’s good for the economic outlook.”

The Bank of Japan last week raised its assessment of the economy for a third month, citing rebounds in trade and factory production. “Economic conditions have stopped worsening,” the central bank said.

The yen traded at 93.69 per dollar at 10:08 a.m. in Tokyo from 93.59 before the report was published. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.1 percent to 9,711.14.

Economists predicted exports would decrease 35.1 percent. From a month earlier, shipments rose 1.1 percent.

Economy Grows

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict the world’s second- largest economy expanded an annualized 2.4 percent in the three months ended June 30, growing for the first time in five quarters. Gross domestic product shrank a record 14.2 percent in the previous three months.

Demand picked up in all regions. Exports to China fell 23.7 percent last month from a year earlier, the smallest drop since October. Shipments to the U.S. declined 37.6 percent, the least since December, and sales to Europe slid 41.4 percent, also the best this year.

The International Monetary Fund said this month the global economic rebound next year will be stronger than it predicted in April, raising its forecast for world growth to 2.5 percent for 2010 from an April estimate of 1.9 percent.

China, which grew 7.9 percent last quarter, has surpassed the U.S. as Japan’s biggest export customer. Government subsidies to encourage consumer spending and investment in building projects have benefited Japanese manufacturers.

Most Important

“The bottom line is that China’s strong growth will continue to drive Japan’s exports,” said Kiichi Murashima, chief economist at Nikko Citigroup Ltd. in Tokyo. “Exports are the single most important factor for the economic outlook.”

Tokyo-based Komatsu, the world’s second-biggest maker of earthmovers, said last month its sales in China probably beat expectations in the quarter ended June 30. The company expects the market to grow to about 15 percent of total sales this business year, compared with 10 percent in 2008.

Nissan, whose Chinese sales rose 18 percent in the first five months of the year, will have to increase shipments of engines and transmissions from Japan to feed higher output at its factories in Guangzhou and Hubei, according to Tokyo-based spokeswoman Pauline Kee.

Japan will still need demand to pick up from the U.S. and elsewhere because about half of Japan’s exports to China are parts and materials used to make products that are re-exported, according to Nikko Citigroup’s Murashima.

“About half of Japan’s export to China eventually go to other industrial countries after assembly,” Murashima said. “So we’re a bit cautious about connecting the strength in Japan’s exports to China to resilience in total exports and the overall economy.”

The central bank will release a report later today showing trade volumes on a month-on-month basis, data which correlates closely with the export component of GDP, according to London- based Capital Economics Ltd.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net; Kyoko Shimodoi in Tokyo at kshimodoi@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 22, 2009 21:22 EDT

x 0

Japan Futures Climb on U.S. Housing; Australia Falls on Oil

Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Patrick Rial and Satoshi Kawano

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stock futures climbed as a gain in U.S. housing prices provided evidence the world’s biggest economy is stabilizing, while a dip in oil prices pushed Australian futures lower.

U.S.-traded receipts of Toyota Motor Corp., which generates more than a third of its sales in North America, rose 0.6 percent from the closing share price in Tokyo yesterday. Those of Sony Corp., the maker of PlayStation game consoles, advanced 0.7 percent as U.S. home prices unexpectedly climbed in May from the previous month. American depositary receipts of BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, declined 1.3 percent as crude snapped a five-day winning streak.

“Housing is no longer the drag on the market that kept pulling everything down,” said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees the equivalent of $522 million at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. in Tokyo. “Volumes remain light though, so shares are likely to remain range-bound until we can get some new sense of direction.”

Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average expiring in September finished at 9,755 in Chicago, up from 9,730 in Osaka and 9,725 in Singapore.

Futures for Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.2 percent in Sydney. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index lost 0.1 percent in Wellington.

In New York, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent yesterday as better-than-expected earnings from companies including Apple Inc. were offset by a report from Wells Fargo & Co. that nonperforming loans are rising.

U.S. Home Prices

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has rallied 19 percent this year and now stands at the highest level since October. Shares in the gauge are valued at 24 times estimated earnings, compared with 16 times and 14 times for U.S. and European benchmarks.

Average U.S. home prices rose 0.9 percent from April, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said yesterday. Prices were forecast to drop 0.2 percent, according economists.

Additionally, General Motors Co. said yesterday second- quarter sales in Asia surged 38 percent, helping to offset a decline in Europe and North America.

Crude oil for September delivery dropped 0.3 percent to settle at $65.40 a barrel in New York after the U.S. Energy Department reported a smaller-than-expected decline in inventories.

To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net; Satoshi Kawano in Tokyo at Skawano1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 22, 2009 19:33 EDT

x 0

Forming a bullish flag continuation pattern on daily chart.

x 0

STI on candlestick daily chart, looks more like on consolidation, still uptrending above the 15ema, 25ema n 65ema, may or may not pullback to the emas in the next few days

x 0

6 ft underground.... haha Smiley

maxcty ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 16:45) Posted:

B3?? haha

cathylmg ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 16:00) Posted:

B1 already. :

x 0

U r right, shaking out the weak n those impatient holders, patience has its virtue.

des_khor ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 15:38) Posted:

This time round really test your patient,if can't take it and sell away will be regretted later!

x 0

Escalator is aredi considered very good, slow, lucky not bubble lift down, very heng aredi

maxcty ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 15:39) Posted:

yup..and now is heading to G floor soon...

cathylmg ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 15:35) Posted:

Escalator up, elevator down.

x 1

x 0

Asian Stocks Advance for Seventh Day on Earnings Speculation

Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Masaki Kondo and Shani Raja

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for the seventh day, the longest streak of gains for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index since January, as Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. sought to raise prices and BHP Billiton Ltd. pumped a record amount of crude oil.

Shin-Etsu, the world’s largest maker of silicon wafers, climbed 4.9 percent in Tokyo after saying its unit will start talks with chipmakers to boost prices. BHP, Australia’s biggest oil and gas producer, gained 2 percent as new fields helped fourth-quarter output reach an all-time high. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the country’s No. 1 refiner, rose 10 percent in Shanghai after Nomura Holdings Inc. said the company’s first- half net income may more than triple.

“The market is pricing for a recovery,” said Matt Riordan, who helps manage about $3.2 billion at Paradice Investment Management in Sydney. “The underlying economy is better than people anticipated.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6 percent to 107.21 as of 3:45 p.m. in Tokyo, taking its climb in the past seven days to 9.3 percent. The gauge has surged 52 percent from a five-year low on March 9 amid speculation stimulus policies worldwide will boost global economic growth.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 2.4 percent, the most in Asia today, to a 13-month high. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 0.3 percent. Nippon Signal Co., which makes traffic signals, jumped 12 percent in Tokyo, while Nexen Tire Corp. climbed 6 percent in Seoul as brokerages set higher target prices for the stocks.

Melbourne-based BHP Billiton led the S&P/ASX 200 Index’s 0.4 percent advance. Gains were limited as lenders fell on plans by National Australia Bank Ltd. to sell shares.

‘Tentative Signs’

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent. The gauge gained 0.4 percent yesterday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the country’s economy is showing “tentative signs of stabilization.”

After markets closed, Apple Inc. became the latest U.S. company to report better-than-expected profit. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which assembles Apple’s iPhone, gained 2.3 percent to NT$113.5 in Taipei.

Shin-Etsu Chemical climbed 4.9 percent to 4,740 yen, while closest rival Sumco Corp. rose 4.6 percent to 1,579 yen in Tokyo.

Shin-Etsu Chemical said today Shin-Etsu Handotai Co., its wholly owned subsidiary, will start negotiations with chipmakers to raise prices for silicon wafers. The Nikkei newspaper earlier said the company will seek a price increase of as much as 40 percent.

Toshiba Corp., Japan’s biggest chipmaker, jumped 5 percent to 378 yen. Apple paid $500 million to Toshiba for flash memory chips, according to the transcript of Apple’s earnings teleconference.

Investor Survey

Optimism for a rebound in corporate profits has helped drive the MSCI World Index up by 6.6 percent in the week through yesterday. The average valuation of companies in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen to 24 times estimated net income, higher than the S&P 500’s 16 times and 14 times for Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index.

The first Quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of financial investors and analysts showed more than a third of investors see greater opportunity and are taking more risk. Two-thirds of respondents say they are optimistic about India’s prospects, as are 70 percent on China.

India’s finance ministry said on July 2 the nation’s economy may grow by as much as 7.75 percent this year. China said last week its second-quarter gross domestic product expanded 7.9 percent from a year earlier, accelerating from its slowest growth in almost a decade.

Australia’s economy is looking better than the central bank forecast a few months ago, Guy Debelle, an assistant governor at the country’s central bank, said in Melbourne today.

Sinopec, BHP

Materials and energy stocks posted the biggest gains among the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 10 industry groups today. The two groups are the gauge’s best performers this year amid speculation an economic rebound will boost commodities demand.

BHP, the world’s biggest mining company, added 2 percent to A$36.90. Fourth-quarter oil production rose 4 percent from a year earlier.

“People are snapping up companies that are sensitive to the global economy in anticipation of an earnings recovery,” said Hiroshi Fujimoto, a fund manager at Tokyo-based Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, which manages the equivalent of $5.7 billion. “It’s getting more certain the U.S. is bottoming out, while China is firming up ground through large-scale public spending to accelerate its growth.”

China Petroleum, known as Sinopec, rose 10 percent to 13.38 yuan following Nomura’s prediction on earnings. The company, China’s No. 1 refiner, is scheduled to report first-half earnings on August 24.

Nippon Signal, Nexen

Nippon Signal surged 12 percent to 904 yen in Tokyo. Nomura rated the stock a new “buy” with a price estimate of 1,000 yen, saying railway upgrade projects overseas will increase demand for the company’s products. Rival Kyosan Electric Manufacturing Co. gained 9.9 percent to 411 yen.

Nexen climbed 6 percent to 6,500 won after a surge in second-quarter profit prompted Good Morning Shinhan Securities Co. and Korea Investment & Securities Co. to raise their share- price estimates.

In Sydney, Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second- biggest bank by market value, fell 2.4 percent to A$19.82, while Commonwealth Bank of Australia lost 1.6 percent to A$39.10.

National Australia Bank said it will raise A$2.75 billion ($2.24 billion) from selling equity to help it weather rising bad loans and finance potential acquisitions. The lender’s shares were halted from trading today.

Japanese Developers

Property developers were the biggest drag on Japan’s Topix Index today on concern the country’s economy won’t stage a quick recovery. NTT Urban Development Corp. slumped 4.5 percent to 88,800 yen. Tokyo Tatemono Co. lost 2.6 percent to 457 yen.

“Real estate is among the industries hardest hit by the recession,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, a senior strategist at Tokyo-based Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co., which oversees about $52 billion.

Tokyo Tatemono President Makoto Hatanaka said in an interview with the Nikkei published July 20 that Japan’s economy will not have a “V-shaped” recovery and office vacancy rates are likely to continue rising outside of Tokyo.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net; Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: July 22, 2009 02:48 EDT

x 1

x 0

The Dow Will Hit 10,000 in 2009

by Dr. Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist

Three reasons why the Dow is going up.

Insights from Jeremy Siegel.

Why the Dow 10,000 in 2009 isn't crazy.

Dear Investment U Reader,

Wall Street has been debating the huge run-up in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Was March the beginning of a huge rally that will take the market to new highs? Have we witnessed the proverbial "dead-cat bounce?" The prognosticators have been unsure, uncertain and uncommittal about what they see coming next...

So let me make it clear where I stand: We are in the beginning of a new bull market that will carry us to 10,000 on the Dow by year's-end - and new highs within a couple of years.

Yes, the recovery will be volatile. But now is the time to buy, despite the big run up.

No doubt there's plenty of bad news out there - rising unemployment with no end in sight, threatened tax increases on capital gains and dividends, anemic corporate profits, commercial real-estate insolvency, federal deficits, continued threats from the Middle East and Afghanistan, the specter of inflation and high interest rates among others...

This list goes on and on. But as the old saying goes, "Wall Street climbs a wall of worry."

It's all for naught - and I encourage you to look past these sideshows and distractions. I'm convinced the stock market is headed higher - a lot higher. I'll share my reasoning and tell you why Jeremy Siegel feels the same way.

Three Reasons the Dow is Going Up

Over the past few months, three things have been sticking out to me like huge blinking aircraft landing signals. Here's why we're going to keep moving up..

The Fed. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are pulling out all the stops to stimulate the economy. Since September 2008, the money supply (M2) has been growing at an incredible 13% rate, one of the highest in the post-World War II period.

As Milton Friedman has demonstrated time and time again, after a lag of between six and nine months an easy money policy will cause a sharp recovery in the economy and stocks. Economists call it the "Friedman Effect."

Mortgage support. The Obama administration has been working hard at bailing out all the unstable banks, bad mortgages and bad assets in the economy through massive deficit spending. Essentially, the government policy is putting a floor under the residential real estate market, which will keep it from collapsing any further.

History sides with the bulls. Last month, I had dinner with Jeremy Siegel, professor of economics at the Wharton School and author of the bestseller "Stocks for the Long Run." He is a firm believer in looking at historical trends, something that many investors and Wall Street analysts have forgotten. And right now, the trend favors the bulls.

Well, guess what? The lag is over, and the "Friedman Effect" is taking full effect. We can expect higher stock prices and a recovery in the economy by year-end. And as a result of the administration's efforts, housing sales are on the rise and real estate prices are stabilizing.

It's why I'm so interested in real estate lately. Take a look at may last column, "Real Estate: The Buy of the Century."

http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/April/buying-real-estate.html

Adding more fuel to my position, when I sat down with Wharton's Wizard he showed me an interesting long-term chart of the S&P 500 Index.

The Wizard of Wharton's Long-Term Outlook

You'll note that every time the market hit the bottom of his long-term chart, it rallied - sharply. And that's exactly where it was in late February when I met with Professor Siegel - at the bottom.

Sure enough, in early March Wall Street rallied - and it hasn't looked back. It's now up 30% from its lows. Between you and me, he called the exact bottom of the stock market within weeks. (Of course, so did a few of our analysts as well.)

How far up can it go? I asked this precise question to Professor Siegel last month.

He told me that he has just completed a study of how well stocks do after a major crash like the one we just experienced (falling 50% from its highs). His conclusion was pretty striking: After a major bear market, stocks on average rebound 24% the first year of recovery. And just as nice, the average annual return over the next five years is 18%.

Since the Dow was around 8,300 at the first of the year, it could climb back to 10,000 by year-end. (And 18,000 by 2013.) We could comfortably hit these numbers with an additional 19% gain.

Although many believe the "easy money" has been made - and they may be right - the market will still offer plenty of profitable opportunities in the coming months. It'll be volatile, but it's certainly not too late to get aboard.

Good investing,

Mark

street ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 14:57) Posted:

Yes. I believe based on the TA analysis, DOW will break 10000 in the 2nd half 2009.

Please see the reason at: http://www.street.com.sg/stock-analysis.php

x 0

I fact, it had aredi broke up from the bullish contracting triangle continuation pattern (11/5 to 15/7 - slightly more than 8 wks).

By definition, pennant is for timeframe less than 8 weeks.

I dun see any subsequent pennant after tat bullish contracting triangle, can kindly post the chart to share n show where is the pennant. Thks.

richtan ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 12:36) Posted:

Hi erictkw,

Thks for the info, my oversight as I looked at the latest, didn't trace back.

All in all, tats good news.

erictkw ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 12:13) Posted:

Yes, but it was after 2 even higher transactions of buy-up at 3018 and 4512 lots at 10.32am. As of now, buy-ups outdo sell-downs by over 9000 lots. Watch out for the pennant. Smiley

x 0

Hi erictkw,

Thks for the info, my oversight as I looked at the latest, didn't trace back.

All in all, tats good news.

erictkw ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 12:13) Posted:

Yes, but it was after 2 even higher transactions of buy-up at 3018 and 4512 lots at 10.32am. As of now, buy-ups outdo sell-downs by over 9000 lots. Watch out for the pennant. Smiley

x 1

x 0

Trade Summary shows heavy volume buy-up at 11:06:37 of 1000 lots at 0.185

Dyodd

BR9 (China Hongx)

DAY HIGH : 0.190	NET CHANGE : 0.000	TOTAL VALUE : 2,750,985
DAY LOW : 0.180	LAST DONE : 0.185	VOLUME : 14,923

< />

Time	Last	Vol	Buy/Sell
11:54:19	0.185	300	S
11:46:01	0.185	7	S
11:45:14	0.185	30	S
11:44:17	0.185	40	S
11:40:26	0.185	100	S
11:40:21	0.185	10	S
11:33:39	0.185	15	S
11:32:37	0.185	75	S
11:31:14	0.185	20	S
11:31:02	0.185	7	S
11:31:01	0.185	30	S
11:29:59	0.180	100	B
11:28:06	0.185	40	S
11:27:14	0.185	30	S
11:21:52	0.185	100	S
11:19:46	0.185	200	S
11:16:05	0.185	1	S
11:10:41	0.185	20	S
11:07:59	0.185	50	S
11:06:37	0.185	1,000	S

x 0

Trade Summary shows heavy volume buy-up at 11:51:27 of 1127 lots at 0.555

Dyodd

5GJ (AusGroup)

DAY HIGH : 0.560	NET CHANGE : 0.005	TOTAL VALUE : 3,891,890
DAY LOW : 0.545	LAST DONE : 0.555	VOLUME : 7,046

< />

Time	Last	Vol	Buy/Sell
11:52:02	0.555	2	B
11:51:27	0.555	1,129	S
11:43:20	0.550	9	S
11:43:08	0.550	1	S
11:42:24	0.550	190	B
11:40:25	0.550	20	B
11:32:23	0.550	3	B
11:31:50	0.550	10	B
11:26:57	0.550	15	B
11:21:41	0.550	100	B
11:19:39	0.550	20	B
11:17:48	0.550	87	B
11:15:13	0.555	1	S
11:14:29	0.550	86	S
11:14:26	0.550	50	S
11:14:12	0.550	50	S
11:13:35	0.550	12	S
11:12:49	0.550	1	S
11:11:36	0.550	10	S
11:08:09	0.550	28	S

x 1

x 0

Investors Willing to Take on More Risk, With Best Bets in Asia

Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Robert Schmidt

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Most investors are shaking off the world economic crisis and many are willing to take on more risk as they hunt for opportunities, especially in China and India, according to a survey by Bloomberg News.

The first Quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of financial investors and analysts singled out stocks and commodities as offering the most promising returns over the next year.

“I’m actually pretty positive on the longer horizon,” says respondent Anthony Gibbs, a bond broker with Vantage Capital Markets LLP in London. “The global marketplace has got bigger, the Chinese are getting richer and richer, and the West is going to benefit by being able to export stuff to China.”

The survey shows skepticism about the recovery in the U.S. and Europe, with 44 percent of respondents saying Europe poses the greatest risk for investors and 20 percent citing the U.S.

“These investors see more downside than upside in the current investment climate in the U.S,” says J. Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm that conducted the survey. “Opportunity appears brightest outside” the country.

The poll was conducted between July 14 and 17 of investors and analysts on six continents. It’s based on interviews with a random sample of 1,076 Bloomberg subscribers, representing decision makers in markets, finance and economics. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Pessimistic on Europe

These investors say they are most disheartened about the major economic regions. Seventy-one percent are pessimistic about Eastern Europe, 67 percent about Western Europe, 62 percent about Japan and 55 percent about the U.S.

Overall, 18 percent say they see the world economy getting back to normal and 35 percent see greater opportunity and are taking more risk. That contrasts with 46 percent who say they are still hunkering down.

Uzi Zimmerman, who runs a hedge fund in the Los Angeles area, counts himself among the pessimists, drawing his conclusions mainly from evidence like home foreclosures and unemployment in the region.

“California is nearly bankrupt,” says Zimmerman, whose firm, Ventura Capital Management LLC, manages $14 million. “I see what is going on here, and things continue to get worse.”

Emerging Markets Focus

Caution dissipated on emerging markets, where 40 percent say the most profits can be made. Two-thirds of respondents say they are optimistic about India’s prospects, as are 70 percent on China.

“The Chinese economy is run by the government, managed by the government, helped by the government,” says Omri Beer, an options trader at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Tokyo. “It’s easy to be bullish.”

Developing nations led the rally in global stocks this year, posting nine of the 10 biggest gains among benchmark equity indexes. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of 22 countries has surged 42 percent.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 5.7 percent in 2009, erasing a decline that reached 25 percent on March 9. The benchmark index for U.S. equities rallied 41 percent over the past four months, led by a 95 percent rise in financial firms.

Treasuries have tumbled on speculation the supply of new debt to finance the U.S. budget deficit would overwhelm demand. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note ended Tuesday at 3.48 percent, up from 2.21 percent at the end of 2008.

Best Returns

The poll results were generally similar for Bloomberg customers who identified themselves as working in either fixed income or equities.

A big difference came when respondents were asked to identify the asset classes that would produce the best returns over the next year: Thirty-nine percent of those who said their business was equities chose stocks, as did 27 percent of those in fixed income. Only 10 percent of those dealing in stocks chose bonds as offering the highest return, compared with 27 percent of fixed-income investors.

Thirty-nine percent of equity respondents said they were taking more risk, while 30 percent of those in fixed income said they were.

These financial leaders also predict that the Chinese yuan and the U.S. dollar will appreciate the most over the next year, which suggests relations between the two countries will remain stable. Twenty-five percent see the yuan as rising the most, while 22 percent choose the dollar.

Forty-two percent of the respondents say the dollar will weaken against major world currencies in the next six months. A third say the U.S. currency will strengthen and 22 percent predict it will vary little.

Downplaying Inflation

Investors downplay inflation concerns, with about half predicting the three-month London interbank offer rate, or Libor, the interest rate banks charge each other for loans, will vary little.

In another indication that investors aren’t worried about inflation, 40 percent pick real estate as the investment that will have the worst return over the next year among five asset classes tested.

While bonds are seen by 29 percent of the investors as offering the worst returns, 18 percent say they present the opportunity for the highest. Of those who favor bonds, about two-thirds say corporate debt is best. Twenty-two percent choose government bonds.

Bill Siegel, a Florida hedge-fund manager, says corporate bonds of higher-rated companies may be a good investment, as could government debt.

Fiscal Responsibility

“Government bonds are offering an excellent real return, with the caveat that governments are able to retain a semblance of fiscal responsibility,” Siegel says.

About a third of respondents pick stocks as the asset class offering the highest potential returns, while 28 percent choose commodities, reflecting an emerging confidence in a recovery.

London bond broker Gibbs says he’s bullish on commodities because of growth in countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China and their need to buy goods.

“The world population ain’t going down, it’s still expanding,” he says.

Almost half the investors estimate the prices of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond, crude oil and gold will be higher in six months. Forty-one percent say the same of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Schmidt in Washington at rschmidt5@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: July 21, 2009 17:59 EDT

x 1

x 0

Most Asian Stocks Rise; Shin-Etsu Chemical Gains, Banks Retreat

Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Masaki Kondo and Shani Raja

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Most Asian stocks rose, led by material producers after Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. said it will seek a price increase. Banks fell as National Australia Bank Ltd. said it will sell stock.

Shin-Etsu Chemical, the world’s largest maker of silicon wafers, climbed 5.1 percent in Tokyo after saying its unit will start talks with chipmakers for a price increase. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which makes Apple Inc.’s iPhone, gained 1.4 percent in Taipei after Apple’s earnings beat analyst estimates. Sydney-based Westpac Banking Corp. sank 1.5 percent, while National Australia Bank, the nation’s largest lender by assets, was suspended from trading.

Five stocks rose for every three that fell on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which added 0.3 percent to 106.96 as of 11:27 a.m. in Tokyo. An 8.7 percent increase in the past six days lifted the measure yesterday to its highest close since Oct. 2. The gauge has gained 52 percent from a five-year low on March 9.

“The underlying economy is better than people anticipated and the market is pricing for a recovery,” said Matt Riordan, who helps manage about $3.2 billion at Paradice Investment Management in Sydney.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.5 percent, while South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 0.1 percent.

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.3 percent. The gauge gained 0.4 percent yesterday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the country’s economy is showing “tentative signs of stabilization.”

Silicon Wafers

Shin-Etsu Chemical climbed 5.1 percent to 4,750 yen, while closest rival Sumco Corp. rose 4.5 percent to 1,577 yen in Tokyo.

Shin-Etsu Chemical said today Shin-Etsu Handotai Co., its wholly owned subsidiary, will start negotiations with chipmakers to raise prices for silicon wafers. The Nikkei newspaper earlier said the company will seek a price increase of as much as 40 percent.

Hon Hai gained 1.4 percent to NT$112.5 as Apple became the latest U.S. company to report better-than-expected earnings. Apple’s third-quarter sales and profit beat analysts’ estimates, as the iPhone and cheaper computers lured customers.

Optimism of a rebound in corporate profits has helped fuel a global stock rally in the past week. The average valuation of companies in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen to 24 times estimated net income, higher than the S&P 500’s 15 times and 13.7 times for Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index.

The first Quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of financial investors and analysts showed more than a third of investors see greater opportunity and are taking more risk. Seventy percent of participants in the survey are optimistic about China’s prospects.

Westpac fell 1.5 percent to A$20.01. National Australia Bank said it will raise A$2.75 billion ($1.63 billion) from selling equity to help it weather rising bad loans and finance potential acquisitions.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net; Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: July 21, 2009 22:28 EDT

x 0

The Dow Will Hit 10,000 in 2009

by Dr. Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist

Highlights in this issue:

Three reasons why the Dow is going up.

Insights from Jeremy Siegel.

Why the Dow 10,000 in 2009 isn't crazy.

Dear Investment U Reader,

Wall Street has been debating the huge run-up in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Was March the beginning of a huge rally that will take the market to new highs? Have we witnessed the proverbial "dead-cat bounce?" The prognosticators have been unsure, uncertain and uncommittal about what they see coming next...

So let me make it clear where I stand: We are in the beginning of a new bull market that will carry us to 10,000 on the Dow by year's-end - and new highs within a couple of years.

Yes, the recovery will be volatile. But now is the time to buy, despite the big run up.

No doubt there's plenty of bad news out there - rising unemployment with no end in sight, threatened tax increases on capital gains and dividends, anemic corporate profits, commercial real-estate insolvency, federal deficits, continued threats from the Middle East and Afghanistan, the specter of inflation and high interest rates among others...

This list goes on and on. But as the old saying goes, "Wall Street climbs a wall of worry."

It's all for naught - and I encourage you to look past these sideshows and distractions. I'm convinced the stock market is headed higher - a lot higher. I'll share my reasoning and tell you why Jeremy Siegel feels the same way.

Three Reasons the Dow is Going Up

Over the past few months, three things have been sticking out to me like huge blinking aircraft landing signals. Here's why we're going to keep moving up..

The Fed. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are pulling out all the stops to stimulate the economy. Since September 2008, the money supply (M2) has been growing at an incredible 13% rate, one of the highest in the post-World War II period.

As Milton Friedman has demonstrated time and time again, after a lag of between six and nine months an easy money policy will cause a sharp recovery in the economy and stocks. Economists call it the "Friedman Effect."

Mortgage support. The Obama administration has been working hard at bailing out all the unstable banks, bad mortgages and bad assets in the economy through massive deficit spending. Essentially, the government policy is putting a floor under the residential real estate market, which will keep it from collapsing any further.

History sides with the bulls. Last month, I had dinner with Jeremy Siegel, professor of economics at the Wharton School and author of the bestseller "Stocks for the Long Run." He is a firm believer in looking at historical trends, something that many investors and Wall Street analysts have forgotten. And right now, the trend favors the bulls.

Well, guess what? The lag is over, and the "Friedman Effect" is taking full effect. We can expect higher stock prices and a recovery in the economy by year-end. And as a result of the administration's efforts, housing sales are on the rise and real estate prices are stabilizing.

It's why I'm so interested in real estate lately. Take a look at may last column, "Real Estate: The Buy of the Century."

http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/April/buying-real-estate.html

Adding more fuel to my position, when I sat down with Wharton's Wizard he showed me an interesting long-term chart of the S&P 500 Index.

The Wizard of Wharton's Long-Term Outlook

You'll note that every time the market hit the bottom of his long-term chart, it rallied - sharply. And that's exactly where it was in late February when I met with Professor Siegel - at the bottom.

Sure enough, in early March Wall Street rallied - and it hasn't looked back. It's now up 30% from its lows. Between you and me, he called the exact bottom of the stock market within weeks. (Of course, so did a few of our analysts as well.)

How far up can it go? I asked this precise question to Professor Siegel last month.

He told me that he has just completed a study of how well stocks do after a major crash like the one we just experienced (falling 50% from its highs). His conclusion was pretty striking: After a major bear market, stocks on average rebound 24% the first year of recovery. And just as nice, the average annual return over the next five years is 18%.

Since the Dow was around 8,300 at the first of the year, it could climb back to 10,000 by year-end. (And 18,000 by 2013.) We could comfortably hit these numbers with an additional 19% gain.

Although many believe the "easy money" has been made - and they may be right - the market will still offer plenty of profitable opportunities in the coming months. It'll be volatile, but it's certainly not too late to get aboard.

Good investing,

Mark

x 1

x 0

Hi petertan,

I m so sorry, I normally dun like to make recommendation, better to dyodd as I would not feel good if later my recommendation cause u to lose money as TA is not infallible.

petertan4949 ( Date: 22-Jul-2009 01:21) Posted:

Dear richtan, can recommend some pennies stock.thanks.

x 2

x 0

The Dow Will Hit 10,000 in 2009

by Dr. Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist

Three reasons why the Dow is going up.

Insights from Jeremy Siegel.

Why the Dow 10,000 in 2009 isn't crazy.

Dear Investment U Reader,

Wall Street has been debating the huge run-up in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Was March the beginning of a huge rally that will take the market to new highs? Have we witnessed the proverbial "dead-cat bounce?" The prognosticators have been unsure, uncertain and uncommittal about what they see coming next...

So let me make it clear where I stand: We are in the beginning of a new bull market that will carry us to 10,000 on the Dow by year's-end - and new highs within a couple of years.

Yes, the recovery will be volatile. But now is the time to buy, despite the big run up.

No doubt there's plenty of bad news out there - rising unemployment with no end in sight, threatened tax increases on capital gains and dividends, anemic corporate profits, commercial real-estate insolvency, federal deficits, continued threats from the Middle East and Afghanistan, the specter of inflation and high interest rates among others...

This list goes on and on. But as the old saying goes, "Wall Street climbs a wall of worry."

It's all for naught - and I encourage you to look past these sideshows and distractions. I'm convinced the stock market is headed higher - a lot higher. I'll share my reasoning and tell you why Jeremy Siegel feels the same way.

Three Reasons the Dow is Going Up

Over the past few months, three things have been sticking out to me like huge blinking aircraft landing signals. Here's why we're going to keep moving up..

The Fed. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are pulling out all the stops to stimulate the economy. Since September 2008, the money supply (M2) has been growing at an incredible 13% rate, one of the highest in the post-World War II period.

As Milton Friedman has demonstrated time and time again, after a lag of between six and nine months an easy money policy will cause a sharp recovery in the economy and stocks. Economists call it the "Friedman Effect."

Mortgage support. The Obama administration has been working hard at bailing out all the unstable banks, bad mortgages and bad assets in the economy through massive deficit spending. Essentially, the government policy is putting a floor under the residential real estate market, which will keep it from collapsing any further.

History sides with the bulls. Last month, I had dinner with Jeremy Siegel, professor of economics at the Wharton School and author of the bestseller "Stocks for the Long Run." He is a firm believer in looking at historical trends, something that many investors and Wall Street analysts have forgotten. And right now, the trend favors the bulls.

Well, guess what? The lag is over, and the "Friedman Effect" is taking full effect. We can expect higher stock prices and a recovery in the economy by year-end. And as a result of the administration's efforts, housing sales are on the rise and real estate prices are stabilizing.

It's why I'm so interested in real estate lately. Take a look at may last column, "Real Estate: The Buy of the Century."

http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/April/buying-real-estate.html

Adding more fuel to my position, when I sat down with Wharton's Wizard he showed me an interesting long-term chart of the S&P 500 Index.

The Wizard of Wharton's Long-Term Outlook

You'll note that every time the market hit the bottom of his long-term chart, it rallied - sharply. And that's exactly where it was in late February when I met with Professor Siegel - at the bottom.

Sure enough, in early March Wall Street rallied - and it hasn't looked back. It's now up 30% from its lows. Between you and me, he called the exact bottom of the stock market within weeks. (Of course, so did a few of our analysts as well.)

How far up can it go? I asked this precise question to Professor Siegel last month.

He told me that he has just completed a study of how well stocks do after a major crash like the one we just experienced (falling 50% from its highs). His conclusion was pretty striking: After a major bear market, stocks on average rebound 24% the first year of recovery. And just as nice, the average annual return over the next five years is 18%.

Since the Dow was around 8,300 at the first of the year, it could climb back to 10,000 by year-end. (And 18,000 by 2013.) We could comfortably hit these numbers with an additional 19% gain.

Although many believe the "easy money" has been made - and they may be right - the market will still offer plenty of profitable opportunities in the coming months. It'll be volatile, but it's certainly not too late to get aboard.

Good investing,

Mark

Highlights in this issue: