Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 25-Sep-2008 16:40 |
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New rules for Naked Short Sell starting 25Sep2008
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good post, ekekeg.  it is for this same reason that i avoid stocks like biosensors.  sure to be left like this: 
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| 25-Sep-2008 16:36 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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ah, ok. thanks, guys. basically that means shortist has to pay the higher of the two pxes + 2 bids lah. lkg at the yl sell queue, shouldn't be a problem for them then. which also means we can expect concerted effort to push down yl's px tmrw and mon. haha. if sellers are smart, they'll redraw sell queue and force the shortists to buy up higher. cos current queues for yl are atypically large. i see false queues all the way..... which also means those false queues need to be extremely careful on tues, because if you short to the shortists then and fail to deliver, the penalty under new SGX's ruling is $50,000. note: am personally not vested in the counter. |
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| 25-Sep-2008 13:51 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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buy in is T+3 i believe....(perhaps the more experienced shortists can shed light). in any case, lkg at yesterday's BUSD data, appears the shortists had gotten wind of it earlier; there was sudden massive buys btwn 1400 to 1436 hrs. so i wouldn't think more than 500 lots got caught actually.... |
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| 24-Sep-2008 17:39 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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here we go: http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/explanation-of-sgxs-new-ruling.html i've read and explained the short selling rules, for those who are still puzzled. my sources tell me yl today will be enforced with the penalty. let's see if it's real. if so, the lifting of the TH will be a good opp to unload for the longterm. I'm waiting to see the vol of ppl caught. 
follow it and see how high it spikes to though. 1.47 will be the near term resistance. may spike beyond that, because there was an extraordinary vol sold before the TH today; lots of 100s. which is atypical for this baby. |
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| 24-Sep-2008 17:06 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yl is actually an old bribery case from more than a year ago; but just that it now is awaiting court decision after the official kena for corruption in other cases. yl is being blamed for 'substantially offering a discount to market price", but then, EVERYONE does that. look at the HPL case involving the lee family. same also wat. besides, it's normal for property owners to offer discounts of 7% or so on soft launches to VIPs; up to 15% is also regular practice in the global industry. so let's see if they can worm their way out. odds are in their favour actually, assuming they didn't do more hanky panky, or that the discount wasn't something ridiculous like 50% or whatever. The Chinese govt can be unpredictable though: if they decide to make a case of yl, then you can expect it to be indicted. But rationally, if you look at it closely: it's not yl they're after, but the official. the funny thing to me is naked shortists today on the counter. it was being played. then they surfaced the rumors (which was actually an old thing), double shorted, and now i think they're major screwed if the TH doesn't lift by today. SGX has every right to ask for penalty then on naked shorts, since the buying in is tues.
so it all depends on SGX's mercy now, whether they want to enforce the rules, or let these ppl go. Apologies if the above sounds harsh, but i think everyone should know that i've always been against shortists, for the same reason that i do not believe in contra: bad money management. you do not play with money you do not have. cheers! FA-wise tho, yl's NAV is abt 53c. THey have new shares coming up which will dilute it; offer px of 92c. 2012 has convertible notes, tho at a px of 2.71. But longterm that means dilutory, coupled with slower growth on the horizon. so run on any bounce, really. FA-wise, i wouldn't hold this counter. |
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| 24-Sep-2008 15:02 |
Yanlord Land
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Lord of the China property market
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yl TH. must be nerve wracking for the shortists. lol. generally in such situations, longs have a better advantage. assuming you're not on contra. |
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| 24-Sep-2008 13:40 |
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New rules for Naked Short Sell starting 25Sep2008
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good. finally they start taking action. i had written in about it before to them, months ago, only to receive a typical, high-handed govt response of "it is all part of the market cycle blah blah blah". And now after London, Sydney and New York does something about it, THEN they take action. typical civil-service "don't rock the boat" mentality; only know how to follow others; so that they only react when events catch up to them or oh! there's a lead to follow! Ha. |
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| 24-Sep-2008 13:35 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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well, 700bil rescue plan, borne by taxpayers. ("A country where gains are privatised and losses, socialised....") assume 1/2 population of america are taxpayers, that's about 200mil. So every citizen of America is long DJIA with USD$3,500!!! 
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| 24-Sep-2008 13:31 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/yanlord-for-day.html those in yl to be careful. serious case, this one. fundamentally, i wouldn't touch this counter. now technically to see if its backer will support it. if not, there's byebye to yl as it relegates to the range play ranks of cosco and yzj. jchongli, no hurry to touch stocks now. longterm or shortterm, today's not a buy day. local BBs are out and about. |
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| 24-Sep-2008 13:29 |
Yanlord Land
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Lord of the China property market
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lol. nice timing. i just posted abt yl on my blog. not just the bribery case. if someone can explain to me why the new shares issued don't tally, i'll be much obliged, too. lets see if the yl backer will hold this baby up. haha. note that the sellers are strong; not willing to give up even at 102. when news spread, likely the usual panic and dumping. it's a common thing tho, for prop owners to give either apartments or heavy discounts to prominent people. we have it here too in s'pore. all hush hush cases. haha. |
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| 23-Sep-2008 14:29 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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paiseh. the proper link http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/importance-of-backers.html and hey, who posted something so big that the screen is awry? let's move up this page, folks! hehe. |
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| 23-Sep-2008 14:27 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/importance-of-backers.html oops. paiseh. the proper link. if it doesn't work, just scroll and find my latest post. especially for ppl who are struggling with what to buy, what to play etcetc. just a *sense* of possibilities for you guys. You'll havta do the work and hunt it down yoruself though. hehehehehe. |
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| 23-Sep-2008 14:25 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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reposting from my retailers thread. fyi only. heehee. ------------- something which i've been dying to do but didn't dare to on SJ (cos open forum). http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/importance-of-backers.html 
sure to send people into a tizzy.
and yes, it's a real counter, and yes, like black swans, such things do exist, and no, i will NOT name it. elfin mischief on a dull day. 
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| 23-Sep-2008 14:23 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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something which i've been dying to do but didn't dare to on SJ (cos open forum). http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/importance-of-backers.html
sure to send people into a tizzy.
and yes, it's a real counter, and yes, like black swans, such things do exist, and no, i will NOT name it. elfin mischief on a dull day.
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| 23-Sep-2008 13:38 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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edit: http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/market-update-for-day.html here we go. me gots a bloggie now! 
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| 23-Sep-2008 13:35 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yah. pay per view as soon as i figure out how. 
http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/market-update-for-day.html updates for some of the counters today. (for rapids only). capland very funny. buyer and seller fighting. lol. |
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| 23-Sep-2008 13:20 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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fight going on for capland today. warzone 373-375. seller looks stronger; the buyer may have fizzled out his bullets too early in the game ard the 380 range. lol. watch 370 support. seller is foreign. not sure about buyer; may actually be local. o_0 caveat applies. |
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| 22-Sep-2008 22:23 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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belated notes: expected trading direction for this week is sideways with downward bias. be careful of a burn the shorts phenomenon. all depends on who took more positions which way. if locals start shorting too much, don't be surprised if foreigners buy up the STI instead. Equal likelihood however that it may just go back down. Likely to be mixed, as i'm seeing some divergence amongst the blues. key STI resistances at 2,570 then again at the psych level of 2,600. Pullbacks should pref not go below ~2,450. watch the blues as weathervanes: capland and the banks. i've been getting questions by quite a lot of folks seeking to understand the entire subprime crisis and how the banks could topple overnight. The Straits Times had excellent articles on it on sunday. But if you prefer tracking it by the global flow of money, what really happened, i've written up the brief explanation on my bloggie, so feel free to take a look. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/short-chronicle-of-collapse.html. May hopefully give some who're still scratching their heads the idea of how money is interlinked, and the real things that happen are never quite reported in the media. Pls note that whatever's in my blog is entirely my PERSONAL opinion. I'm writing things that you'll likely never find in the accredited media, so it's important for me to emphasise this; don't wanna get SJ in trouble.
But really. I don't expect you guys to just read it and agree with me. We all have our own minds, and i'm sure we all are capable of assessing situations and facts. So read it, look at the facts of what has happened, especially, the charts and data; and see if, to you, it makes more sense than what analysts and the media have been saying. In a nutshell, collapses do not happen overnight. |
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| 22-Sep-2008 16:32 |
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ok! i've gots a bloggie! finally! 
http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/ purely for trading/investing stuff. am calling it The Money Plant. double meaning. As plants, since the money plant is a plant that can survive the toughest conditions of drought and no sun. Plus, money generator. will in future be posting the longer analyses and readings there. some will be here as well of course, but i thought it's better to have one source for everything together. i need to keep track myself.
besides, with some of the stuff i'm posting, better not get SJ into trouble. cheers! |
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| 22-Sep-2008 13:12 |
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notes for the day: be careful of window dressing. today-wed is not the time to buy. those in commods to beware: Lehman bros has massive long commods positions; when they unwind for bankruptcy, it may cause a drop in the global commods market. esp be careful if you suddenly see a rash of buy calls from global analysts. fyi only; usual caveat applies. |
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