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Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Earnings-decline overhang

Written By Stock Fanatic on Wednesday, November 13, 2013

YZJ?s stock could be range-bound after its 21% appreciation since our upgrade in Aug on the back of stronger orders. Although we believe its order momentum can be sustained in the next six months, lower earnings and margins in FY14 could limit further near-term upside.

We downgrade the stock to Neutral from Outperform. 9M13 net profit was in line at 70% of our FY13 forecast though above consensus at 85%. 9M13 order book was US$3.87bn (wins of US$2.1bn by 1 Oct). We raise our EPS for FY15 on higher revenue recognition and roll over our target price to end-FY14, still based on 1.4x P/BV (-1 s.d. of its 5-year mean).

High tax in 3Q13 more ?other income? in 4Q13

3Q13 revenue declined 17% qoq as YZJ delivered eight vessels vs. 11 in 2Q13. Gross margins of 22% were slightly ahead of our 20%. 3Q13 net profit would have been higher if not for a high tax rate (29%) from withholding taxes for Chinese subsidiaries? distributable profits and higher taxes for its new yard (25% vs. 12.5% in FY12). 4Q13 revenue could dip qoq with fewer high-value vessels scheduled for delivery. Net profit, however, should still be on track as YZJ expects to receive government subsidies in compensation for yard relocation and tax incentives.

Strong order outlook

Our 2013 order target is still US$2.5bn, although management is bullish that YZJ may close 2013 with more than US$3bn of orders. YZJ has 28 outstanding options (US$1.36bn). Its order strength has in fact encouraged management to reopen its Changbo yard (shut in 2012), adding 10% capacity to handle smaller vessels (60k dwt bulkers and 1,000 teu containerships).

Payment terms have also improved to 30/70 or 40/60 from 20/80.

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

Weak FY14 before a recovery in FY15

YJZ may lack further near-term catalysts in view of weaker quarterly earnings widely expected for FY14 as it executes lower-margin vessels with most of its high-value pre-GFC vessels delivered in FY13. (Read Report)

Source : CIMB Research

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13-Nov-2013 21:18

F & N / F&N

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Fraser & Neave Ltd. - FY results above on timing of development profits

Written By Stock Fanatic on Wednesday, November 13, 2013

FNN reported stronger than expected FY13 core PATMI of S$545m, above our FY13 forecast of S$463m on higher than forecast development profit recognition in 4Q. Development profit recognition picked up following a slow 9MFY13.

A 12 cts/sh dividend was also announced.

Beverages portfolio rises on favorable sales mix, Myanmar Beer

The beverages division continued to report strong growth, with FY13 revenues rising 10% on improved sales mix and distribution, while FY13 PBIT rose 17% YoY. Myanmar Beer maintained its market leading position, and record- breaking sales. However, FNN provided no further comment on the dispute over Myanmar Breweries. While the dairies division experienced sustained competition in Malaysia which drove down revenues 6%YoY.

The division as a whole achieved a 7% rise in revenues and threefold increase in PBIT to S$60m. This was driven by the recovery of Dairies Thailand to pre-flood levels, cost containment, sales mix and lower raw materials prices.

Looking ahead, FNN plans to explore expansion opportunities in Southeast Asia for its soft drinks accelerating its Indochina penetration and growing market share in Thailand for dairies.

Properties division ahead on timing of recognition

4Q earnings were boosted by the TOP of Park Lane, Suzhou Baitang Phase 2, and the Esparina EC project. In addition, the company also handed over additional units at One Central Park which achieved TOP earlier in the year. The sale of legacy assets also provided a minor boost to earnings. Sales momentum in Singapore remained firm in 4Q, with 265 units sold in the quarter (vs. 270 in 3Q).

Meanwhile overseas sales improved to 195 units over 4Q in Australia vs. 130 in 3Q on the back of firm take up for its Putney Hill, Queens Riverside and Central Park developments. Moving forward, the company plans to deliver its overseas pipeline, with a target of 1000 units p.a. in Australia and China. FNN also plans to recycle capital for its Commercial property division (retail/office), and inject its pipeline assets into its REITs.

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

Demerger on the horizon, Maintain Hold

The next significant event for FNN will be the demerger of its Consumer and Properties division. The company has been granted a conditional eligibility to list FCL shares by way of introduction by the SGX.

The EGM is slated for Nov 13. While FNN is currently trading at a 30% discount to NAV, wider than its long term average of 18%, we maintain our Hold recommendation with restructuring and claim on Myanmar Breweries an overhang.

Source : Deutsche Bank Research

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13-Nov-2013 16:23

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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Asia Stocks Drop on China Plenum Disappointment, Fed Bets

By Yoshiaki Nohara - Nov 13, 2013 2:31 PM GMT+0800

Asian stocks fell after China?s leaders failed to outline steps to curb state dominance of the economy and amid bets the Federal Reserve may start reducing U.S. stimulus next month.

Banks slumped in Hong Kong after a communique at the end of China?s four-day plenum made scant mention of financial reforms. Tencent Holdings Ltd., China?s biggest Internet company, fell 2.8 percent after a news report quoted its chairman saying the company?s valuation is ?scarily? high. Noble Group Ltd. lost 4.6 percent in Singapore after Asia?s largest commodity trader by sales said profit slumped. Pioneer Corp. surged 22 percent after the Japanese maker of car stereos reported an unexpected first-half operating profit.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.8 percent to 138.63 as of 3:10 p.m. in Tokyo, heading for its first decline in three days. All 10 industry groups on the measure fell.

?Quite a few people put on their positions ahead of the communique, expecting actionable moves to be made, but that?s not the case,? said Andrew Sullivan, director of sales trading at Kim Eng Securities in Hong Kong. ?The market is just disappointed.?

Hong Kong?s Hang Seng Index plunged 1.91 percent, poised for the lowest close since Sept. 4, as financial shares led declines. China?s Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.3 percent. Japan?s Topix index lost 0.1 percent after a report showed the country?s machinery orders dropped in September.

Regional Gauges

Taiwan?s Taiex Index slid 1.1 percent and Singapore?s Straits Times Index lost 0.5 percent. Australia?s S& P/ASX 200 Index dropped 1.4 percent, while New Zealand?s NZX 50 Index rose 0.1 percent. South Korea?s Kospi index fell 1.6 percent as Samsung Electronics Co., which gets 43 percent of its revenue in America and China, slid 2.5 percent to 1,419,000 won.

China stopped short of unveiling detailed policy shifts after President Xi Jinping oversaw the gathering of Communist Party leaders in Beijing. Instead, they said the role of markets would be elevated in the nation?s economic strategy.

The nation will make markets ?decisive? in allocating resources, according to yesterday?s communique from the third full meeting, or plenum, of the party?s 18th Central Committee. At the same time, the state will remain ?dominant? in the economy, indicating limits on reducing government involvement.

Investors Disappointed

?It underwhelmed, replete with visions but short on details,? Hao Hong, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co., said in an e-mail. ?Judging from investors? response, they are disappointed.?

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. sank 3 percent to HK$5.19. China Construction Bank Corp., the second-biggest mainland lender, declined 2.4 percent to HK$5.83.

Tencent lost 2.8 percent to HK$397.60 after Chairman Pony Ma told Ming Pao Daily News its valuation will fall if the company doesn?t keep up with trends in technology and Internet businesses.

Noble Group declined 4.6 percent to S$1.03 after third-quarter profit dropped 70 percent as the company booked a non-cash loss related to its stake in coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd.

Futures on the S& P 500 lost 0.4 percent today. The measure fell 0.2 percent yesterday as corporate earnings and an improving economy fueled speculation about the Fed?s timetable for reducing stimulus.

Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said yesterday a reduction in U.S. bond purchases ?could very well take place? next month.

Fed?s Outlook

?Tapering is obviously back on the agenda as data in the U.S. continues to be strong,? said Donald Williams, Sydney-based chief investment officer at Platypus Asset Management Ltd., which oversees about A$1.6 billion ($1.5 billion). ?Maybe that?s enough for a small correction, but I think with rates at very low levels and likely to remain low, it?s still a good environment for equity markets.?

Investors will scrutinize U.S. economic reports this week on jobless-benefit claims and manufacturing in the New York area. Economists forecast the central bank will delay tapering asset purchases until its March meeting. Policy makers will probably pare the monthly pace of bond buying to $70 billion from $85 billion at that time, according to the median of 32 estimates in a Bloomberg survey on Nov. 8. The Fed next meets Dec. 17-18.

Among stocks that rose, Pioneer surged 22 percent to 202 yen after posting an operating profit of 569 million yen ($5.7 million) for the six months ended September, beating its forecast that it would break even. The shares advanced the most since May 14.

The Asia-Pacific gauge traded at 13.6 times estimated earnings as of yesterday compared with multiples of 16 for the Standard & Poor?s 500 Index and 15 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Of the companies on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index that have reported quarterly earnings this season and for which Bloomberg compiles estimates, more than 50 percent exceeded analysts? profit expectations.

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13-Nov-2013 15:39

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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SE Asian Stocks to Watch: ARA, Ausgroup, Banyan Tree, Biosensors, City Dev, Comfort Delgro, Courts Asia, EnGro, F& N, Lion Gold, Noble, Petra Foods, REX, See Hup Seng, SIA, SGX, UE, Universal Resource

Singapore
* ARA Asset Management (ARA SP): YTD net S$52.1m
* Ausgroup (AUSG SP): 1Q loss A$15.1m vs A$6.3m profit yr ago...
* Banyan Tree (BTH SP): FY2013 profit seen higher than FY2012
* Biosensors (BIG SP): 2Q net income $11.3m vs $28.2m yr ago
* City Developments (CIT SP): 3Q net -10% y/y to S$121m
* ComfortDelGro (CD SP): To report 3Q earnings
* Courts Asia (COURTS SP): 2Q gross profit S$63.5m vs S$73.3m
* EnGro (EGCL SP): 3Q net income S$3.8m vs S$1.8m yr earlier
* F& N (FNN SP): FY rev. up 22% to S$4.34b
* Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): 3Q net $30m vs $86m yr earlier
* LionGold (LIGO SP): 2Q loss S$47.8m vs S$1.2m loss yr earlier
* Noble (NOBL SP): 3Q net -70% y/y to $22.9m
* Petra Foods (PETRA SP): 9-mo. branded consumer net $44m vs $40m y/y
* Rex (REXI SP): 3 mo. pre-tax loss $1.58m
* See Hup Seng (SHS SP): 3Q net income +44% y/y to S$2.5m
* Singapore Airlines (SIA SP): 2Q net +78% y/y to S$161m cut to neutral from outperform at Credit Suisse
* Singapore Exchange (SGX SP): Introduces 3 new Asian Index Futures for investors contracts to start trading from Nov. 25
* United Engineers (UEM SP): Signs S$309m secured loan facility agreement
* Universal Resource (URS SP): 3Q net S$1.7m vs S$3.6m yr ago

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13-Nov-2013 15:34

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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Singapore Q3 2013 Corporate Earnings: Reuters

DATE COMPANY NAME RIC PERIOD
Nov 13 HTL International Holdings Ltd Q3
Nov 13 Haw Par Corporation Ltd Q3...
Nov 13 CSE Global Ltd Q3
Nov 13 Comfortdelgro Corporation Ltd Q3
Nov 13 Yanlord Land Group Limited Q3
Nov 13 Hong Leong Finance Ltd Q3
Nov 14 Global Logistic Properties Q2
Nov 14 Olam International Ltd Q1
Nov 14 SingTel Ltd Q2
Nov 14 Midas Holdings Ltd Q3
Nov 14 Ho Bee Investment Ltd Q3
Nov 15 WBL Corporation Ltd Q4

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13-Nov-2013 15:26

Others / Any Stocks Also Can Discuss Forum

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Lol ........This is the phoenix stk ............

10. A commentary at the date of the announcement of the significant trends and competitive conditions of the industry in which the Group operates and any known factors or events that may affect the Group in the next reporting period and the next 12 months.

.......................On 21 August 2013, the Group announced a proposed name change, subject to shareholders? approval, to Blumont Phoenix Corporation Ltd., to reflect its new business direction. ...........

ace333 ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 16:11) Posted:

u nid a phoenix stk to balance the yin and yang.....lol

Netengineer ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 16:08) Posted:

lol. in this case. i also wan another counter. this one too fast ard..

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13-Nov-2013 13:16

Elite KSB / Elite KSB

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Trade with care ! Those BB are very cunning....

aj2invest ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 13:09) Posted:

Think worth shorting?

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13-Nov-2013 10:50

Golden Agri-Res / GoldenAgr

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Golden Agri-Resources Ltd ? Weak 3Q13 results on low CPO price (Nicholas Ong)

Recommendation: Neutral

Previous close: S$0.565

Fair value: S$0.50

· 9M13 results below expectations

· 0.585 SG cents interim dividend declared

· Maintain Neutral

Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

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13-Nov-2013 09:59

Others / spotting a pump and dump stock to SHORT

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If I remember correctly.....his cost is less that 50c...big Huat to him...Lol

joseeng ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:41) Posted:

bro, maybe sam is also one of the sellers......lol

Siwomp ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:39) Posted:

Congrates on tthe profits. Tot u know special infor. this is Sam's counter afterall....

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13-Nov-2013 09:56

Elite KSB / Elite KSB

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sorry........ex today

WanSiTong ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:55) Posted:

Ex yesterday

Simpsons ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:54) Posted:

And exit offer is today??

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13-Nov-2013 09:55

Elite KSB / Elite KSB

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Ex yesterday

Simpsons ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:54) Posted:

And exit offer is today??

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13-Nov-2013 09:52

Elite KSB / Elite KSB

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That is why I also don't understand....... but understand from my broker that some players " were playing" this counter. The last one who hop the baby will be burnt chiow tar.

Simpsons ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:46) Posted:

If exit and becomes zero, why are people still buying? Make no sense..

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13-Nov-2013 09:49

Elite KSB / Elite KSB

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As I mentioned b4, after distributing 7.8c to the SH , in fact left ZERO to the SH. Small amount of money set aside enough for payment of expenses relating to liquidation of the Co.

WanSiTong ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:43) Posted:

Those who buy today will not entitle the 7.8c

aj2invest ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:40) Posted:

Wait, i thought they will pay 7.8 cents per share?? Then the shares themselves are at 3.8 cents at the moment?? Do they now pay the lower value or the stipulated 7.8? Cuz if still 7.8, and it is a guarantee, what's to lose? haha I'm not getting the logic, obviously...anyone help? Thanks!

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13-Nov-2013 09:43

Elite KSB / Elite KSB

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Those who buy today will not entitle the 7.8c

aj2invest ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:40) Posted:

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13-Nov-2013 09:22

Elite KSB / Elite KSB

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still got 3.3c.....lol.....after ex, should be worth ZERO

Octavia ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:10) Posted:

open 2.9c...that what i said b4,those ppl push up high to lure ppl in.

Octavia ( Date: 11-Nov-2013 11:59) Posted:

I think those SSH cld have caught off guard by the exit offer.Now they creating false buying interest so that they can un-load their shares to " un-suspecting" investors.Best to stay clear.

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13-Nov-2013 09:21

Others / What?s Happened to Blumont, Asiasons and LionGold

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no sweat........

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13-Nov-2013 09:20

Others / What?s Happened to Blumont, Asiasons and LionGold

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Sorry! post to the wrong thread.....

WanSiTong ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 09:19) Posted:

still got 3.3c.....lol.....after ex, should be worth ZERO

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13-Nov-2013 09:19

Others / What?s Happened to Blumont, Asiasons and LionGold

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still got 3.3c.....lol.....after ex, should be worth ZERO

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13-Nov-2013 06:22

F & N / F&N

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FCL DISTRIBUTION EXEMPT FROM NEW ZEALAND OVERSEAS INVESTMENT ACT CONSENT REQUIREMENTS

Unless otherwise defined, all capitalised terms and references used in this Announcement shall have the meanings ascribed to them in the announcement dated 27 August 2013, 27 October 2013 and 28 October 2013, the Circular to Shareholders dated 28 October 2013 (the " Circular" ) and the Introductory Document to Shareholders dated 28 October 2013 (the " Introductory Document" ).

The Board of Directors ("

The Board is pleased to announce that the OIO has clarified that it is of the view that the FCL Distribution is exempted from the relevant requirement for approval of the OIO under the OIA.

Board" ) of Fraser and Neave, Limited (the " Company" or " F& N" ) refers to paragraph 4.2.3 of the Circular which states that the FCL Distribution and the completion thereof is subject to, inter alia, the approval being given by the New Zealand Overseas Investment Office (the " OIO" ) in relation to the overseas investment (as a result of the FCL Distribution) in certain land held by the FCL Group that is classified as " sensitive land" under the Overseas Investment Act 2005 (the " OIA" ).

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