ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Below is my daily chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd.

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Below is my daily chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd.

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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Excluding Cars, Planes (Update2)

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By Bob Willis

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods, excluding automobiles and aircraft, unexpectedly rose in June, signaling manufacturing may expand in the second half of the year.

Excluding transportation equipment, demand for goods meant to last several years climbed 1.1 percent, the most in four months, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Total orders fell 2.5 percent, the first decrease in three months.

The durable-goods figures used to calculate economic growth indicate companies plan to boost investment in coming months, adding to evidence the worst recession in five decades is starting to ease. Caterpillar Inc. is among companies seeing steadier demand as government stimulus plans here and abroad start to kick in, signaling an economic recovery is in sight.

“The manufacturing recovery is happening now,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, who predicted a gain in orders excluding transportation. Shipments of durable goods “are likely to grow in the third quarter, and that’s an important reason why we expect the overall economy will begin to grow.”

Stock futures, which fell earlier in the day, remained lower and Treasuries stayed higher. Contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index were down 0.7 percent at 969.1 at 9:26 a.m. in New York. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes slipped to 3.62 percent from 3.69 percent late yesterday.

Economists’ Estimates

Economists expected a 0.6 percent drop in orders, according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, after a previously reported 1.8 percent gain in May. Estimates ranged from a decline of 2 percent to a gain of 2 percent.

Excluding transportation equipment, orders were forecast to be unchanged, according to the Bloomberg survey. Commerce revised the May figures in this category to show a 0.8 percent gain, down from the 1.1 percent increase previously reported. after an initially reported 1.1 percent gain the prior month.

Orders for transportation equipment were down 13 percent, with commercial aircraft dropping 39 percent. Plane bookings had jumped 60 percent in May.

Automobile demand dropped 1 percent after an 8.7 percent decrease in May, today’s report showed. Factories at General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC were closed for at least part of the month, worsening the slump in bookings for autos and parts.

Military Orders

Orders excluding defense equipment decreased 0.7 percent as bookings for military gear slumped 28 percent.

Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which economists consider a proxy for future business investment, rose at a 0.4 percent annual pace in the third quarter after plunging at a 44 percent rate in the first three months of the year.

Shipments of those items, used in calculating gross domestic product, fell at a 16 percent three-month annual rate in June, less than half the decrease in March and signaling that the decline in business investment eased last quarter.

Ongoing inventory drawdown in manufacturing is setting the stage for future growth. Stockpiles fell at an $87 billion annual rate in the first quarter, the biggest drop on record, according to figures from Commerce. Companies cut inventories by 0.9 percent in June, today’s report showed.

The economy will grow at an average 1.5 percent rate in the last six months of the year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of July. That follows a projected 1.5 percent decline in the second quarter and a 5.5 percent rate of contraction in the first three months of 2009.

‘Slowed Significantly’

“The pace of decline appears to have slowed significantly, and final demand and production have shown tentative signs of stabilization,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress last week.

Caterpillar, the biggest maker of earthmoving equipment, posted second-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ highest estimate and raised its full-year forecast, saying stimulus programs are starting to support global demand.

“We are seeing signs of stabilization that we hope will set the foundation for an eventual recovery,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said in a statement July 21. “Fiscal policy and monetary stimulus have been introduced around the world, and we are seeing signs, particularly in China, that they are beginning to work.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 29, 2009 09:28 EDT

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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Excluding Cars, Planes (Update2)

Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Bob Willis

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods, excluding automobiles and aircraft, unexpectedly rose in June, signaling manufacturing may expand in the second half of the year.

Excluding transportation equipment, demand for goods meant to last several years climbed 1.1 percent, the most in four months, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Total orders fell 2.5 percent, the first decrease in three months.

The durable-goods figures used to calculate economic growth indicate companies plan to boost investment in coming months, adding to evidence the worst recession in five decades is starting to ease. Caterpillar Inc. is among companies seeing steadier demand as government stimulus plans here and abroad start to kick in, signaling an economic recovery is in sight.

“The manufacturing recovery is happening now,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, who predicted a gain in orders excluding transportation. Shipments of durable goods “are likely to grow in the third quarter, and that’s an important reason why we expect the overall economy will begin to grow.”

Stock futures, which fell earlier in the day, remained lower and Treasuries stayed higher. Contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index were down 0.7 percent at 969.1 at 9:26 a.m. in New York. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes slipped to 3.62 percent from 3.69 percent late yesterday.

Economists’ Estimates

Economists expected a 0.6 percent drop in orders, according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, after a previously reported 1.8 percent gain in May. Estimates ranged from a decline of 2 percent to a gain of 2 percent.

Excluding transportation equipment, orders were forecast to be unchanged, according to the Bloomberg survey. Commerce revised the May figures in this category to show a 0.8 percent gain, down from the 1.1 percent increase previously reported. after an initially reported 1.1 percent gain the prior month.

Orders for transportation equipment were down 13 percent, with commercial aircraft dropping 39 percent. Plane bookings had jumped 60 percent in May.

Automobile demand dropped 1 percent after an 8.7 percent decrease in May, today’s report showed. Factories at General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC were closed for at least part of the month, worsening the slump in bookings for autos and parts.

Military Orders

Orders excluding defense equipment decreased 0.7 percent as bookings for military gear slumped 28 percent.

Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which economists consider a proxy for future business investment, rose at a 0.4 percent annual pace in the third quarter after plunging at a 44 percent rate in the first three months of the year.

Shipments of those items, used in calculating gross domestic product, fell at a 16 percent three-month annual rate in June, less than half the decrease in March and signaling that the decline in business investment eased last quarter.

Ongoing inventory drawdown in manufacturing is setting the stage for future growth. Stockpiles fell at an $87 billion annual rate in the first quarter, the biggest drop on record, according to figures from Commerce. Companies cut inventories by 0.9 percent in June, today’s report showed.

The economy will grow at an average 1.5 percent rate in the last six months of the year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of July. That follows a projected 1.5 percent decline in the second quarter and a 5.5 percent rate of contraction in the first three months of 2009.

‘Slowed Significantly’

“The pace of decline appears to have slowed significantly, and final demand and production have shown tentative signs of stabilization,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress last week.

Caterpillar, the biggest maker of earthmoving equipment, posted second-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ highest estimate and raised its full-year forecast, saying stimulus programs are starting to support global demand.

“We are seeing signs of stabilization that we hope will set the foundation for an eventual recovery,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said in a statement July 21. “Fiscal policy and monetary stimulus have been introduced around the world, and we are seeing signs, particularly in China, that they are beginning to work.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 29, 2009 09:28 EDT

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Extracted from Lim & Tan Securities:

1. The key point to note is that the FTSTI 200-day MA is only starting to trend up, which implies

therally may have more to run in the near-to-medium term.

2. Rising bullishness is an understatement today. We heard from a private banker in a

European bank that their strategist yesterday recommended “

which implies 100% allocation to stocks, ie nothing in bonds and cash.

massive overweight” in equities,

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Europe now in +ve territory.

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Sure, I dun mind, it is good to exchange opinions.

I too think, it could probably be some consolidation, looking at today's candle pullback from its low toform a long shadow n not braking below yesterday's low.

But. as to whether STI will reach 2650 again by tis week or early nx week, tat I really dun know.

petertan4949 ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 17:02) Posted:

I hope you dont mind, and rich tan also dont mind,

just look at the way market go for today, and you already got the answer, dont need to ask,

i dont know about blues chips, but for penny and s chip , just look at them today,it is obvious, if u still doubt,then it is yours to lose.

foucs6900 ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 16:41) Posted:

hi Richtan,

U tink STI will reach 2650 again by tis week or early nx week ? Tks

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I really dun know, I m a day to day TA trader, except those MFT, if chun also by luck.

foucs6900 ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 16:41) Posted:

hi Richtan,

U tink STI will reach 2650 again by tis week or early nx week ? Tks

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Yea, this probably shows tat STI is still very resilient, only knee-jerk reaction to SSE 7 % correction on tightening of bank lending, which I think is good to prevent easy money which will lead to speculative bubble burst later.

DnApeh ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 16:34) Posted:

high also higher than yesterday leh.

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STI so far still looks very strong despite profit-taking as at this point in time, today's low still did not break below yesterday's low but instead recover from the low to form a long lower shadow.

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Hi upforever,

Many thanks for your appreciation, but remember my post is based on my personal unbiased interpretation

of the chart n I might be wrong at times, so important to dyodd.

upforever ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 12:01) Posted:

I agree with Tianchi. Many thanks richtan.

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Ooops. sorry, typo error, should be Hang Seng and SSE (not DOW) correct between 3 to 5 % today, so should be healthy correction.

richtan ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 15:01) Posted:

Yah, HS and DOW correct between 3 to 5 %, so I think is very healthy correction.

dealer0168 ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 14:40) Posted:

But STI seems follow Hang Seng & Dow more..

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Yah, HS and DOW correct between 3 to 5 %, so I think is very healthy correction.

dealer0168 ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 14:40) Posted:

But STI seems follow Hang Seng & Dow more..

richtan ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 14:10) Posted:

Nikkei still holding positive now:

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Nikkei still holding positive now:

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HSI daily chart shows upward breakout of the bullish expanding triangle continuation pattern,

the breakout resistance line should now becomes the support but TA is not infallible, so dyodd.

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Many thanks for your appreciation. Smiley

I post based on my unbiased and my factual interpretation of the chart based on my knowledge of TA.

I warmly welcome alternative views as long as it is constructive, the aim of posting my chart is to exchange pointers to cover any grounds tat I may missed.

Tianchi ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 11:19) Posted:

Great of you, richtan to share your chart. There are many silent majority who appreciate and regularly reads what you wrote. There will always be people who will like to knock down your view. Just ignore and stay focus. Have a good trading day.

richtan ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 10:46) Posted:

Below is my daily chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd.

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U r right, I fully agree with u.

petertan4949 ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 11:14) Posted:

I believe the rally is not done, but i know correction for sure but by how much, i dont know, so i will hold and maybe buy more.

but we must have a stop loss, so even if it correct and hit my exit price, then i still got to sell.

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, have to pray to GOD for the answer loh.

Zelphon ( Date: 29-Jul-2009 11:07) Posted:

Wow...

Every stocks all moved up already..

The rally has been going on for 2 weeks...

Time for a correction ????

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STI this am still very resilient, bouncing off from the low 3 times, so far so good, hope it keeps up the momentum.

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Below is my daily chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd.