Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 07-Jun-2007 22:31 |
Hiap Hoe
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Looks like on an Uptrend
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very strong support at 1.00 and 1.01. techwise, need abt a 15pt increase in williams, coupled with a pinching in of the bollies (esp the lower), when px stays steady with only abt a 0.5-1c change, for a sharp breakout to occur. Not time yet. keep a watch on general market sentiment. could aversely affect this counter. |
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| 07-Jun-2007 22:29 |
Eastern
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Eastern Holdings Ltd
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Hullo, elf just played eastern, so perhaps i could shed some light on the counter? FA-wise: EH is a publishing company. However, it owns 11 properties for rental and leasing. In other words, this counter is an unnoticed proxy prop play. Not covered by brokerage houses. Likely to receive coverage soon tho, since it was in top gainers. haha. Extremely small float of only 100 mil shares, of which at least 70% is sewn up in the top shareholders' hands. which is why when EH moves, it only takes a few lots to move the price by a lot. (which is also why i had hell selling it yesterday. >~<...traders need to be careful of such stocks, since selling might prove a problem) Tech-wise, the run up from 42c showed count to 63c. Day before yesterday showed further upside to 72-73c possible, of which it hit 72c intraday high. it is consolidating now. Stock does not do a fibo retracement, so i expect it to rest at about the 63-65c range, depending on general market sentiment. Short term, tmrw might have some slight upside possible. But back to stock split: for EH, this is a good thing as it improves the liquidity to 200 mil shares. It also makes it more affordable for retailers. As abc2xyz noted, you'll expect the price to split commensurately. I'd put fair value at approx 30c support level post split, which is what the BBs in this counter seem to be aiming for. Normally, stock splits for such counters only occur when they are expecting good news. If you've seen the AR of EH, they have quite solid cash flow, EPS has been constant/going up. And proxy prop play, which is why the px can potentially rerate higher, even with the stock split. Perhaps your best comparative tech/FA wise for stock split is innovalue. 1:2 split, previous target value given was 1.50. Upon split, the new target is now 90c. (ie, at original undiluted = 1.80 fair value. A 20% upside from the first target). Allgreen is another example. The counter last traded before split at ~1.85, dropped to ~1.5 after split (can't remember what the division was), but it's now at ~$2. Basically, if you should like to keep this counter for the long term (ie, to end dec), it's a good one to keep. Esp if you had vested at below 0.52c. It's certainly not one of the suspect counters like gems, starcruises, etc. good luck! PS: i know the stock is cornered, but do still keep out a look on macrotrends yea. :) |
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| 07-Jun-2007 17:40 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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haha. on the subject of a DJI correction, elf will leave it to singaporegal, or perhaps a better candidate, rayphua to answer. on the subject of 'tackling' and waist size speculation however, the elf politely declines the generous offer on singaporegal's behalf. haha. cheers to you, singaporegal! *hugs* :) |
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| 07-Jun-2007 10:28 |
Others
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Question on Married Deal
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hm...i see rogue is everywhere...haha. the following is just from my own knowledge, so do correct if wrong: married deals are only significant if the vol 'married' is high, since that indicates BBs in action. if it is low, then it just means a broker matched the quote in the SGX and sealed the deal before/after the opening/closing bell. it is not necessarily true that in a married deal, the buyer/seller know each other. esp so for small retail sales. sometimes 'married deals' you see at the end, esp for speculative counters, are SGX forced selling/buying. for shortists and contra-ists. intraday, if you see an X on the bid/ask column, it means someone sewed up consecutive quotes, esp if you see a funny figure. eg, 0.663, as opposed to 0.66 and 0.665. eg, if there are 50 lots on queue at 0.66 and 50 lots at 0.665, and i'm impatient and want to buy 100 lots, i can instruct my broker to sweep up the 0.66 and the quote after (the 0.665). So what's reflected on your screens will be 0.663, 100 lots, X. They round off to 3 dec places on the screen, but your actual charges will be accurate to the cents (reflected in your statement). the brokerage charges are as applies. they take the no: of lots at that price, and the no: of lots at the other price(s), add them up, and charge brokerage+fees on the total sum of the whole trade. not on part by part. hope this helps. :) |
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| 07-Jun-2007 10:16 |
EngKong
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Eng Kong - Wrts issue
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ooh yea kilroy, come join in the fun here. keke. don't you dare cause a whipsaw tho! elf will box you! 
but seriously, yea. the small vol is a worry for traders when it's time to sell. the adv tho, is that if you had bought it low, you can afford to sell down the quotes when it's time to sell, and still lock in substantial profit. no hurry tho. entire market's down; am expecting tmrw to be down too. can stalk this guy and wait for people to sell down to you perhaps? note that one mil trading vol daily might not be possible for this baby. As of last AR, the 20th shareholder held ~0.2% of the stock. 1mil trading vol corresponds to 0.48% of the float. So to expect 1mil trading daily is expecting the last few of the top 20 shareholders to keep trading their shares everyday, which might not be really possible at this stage of accumulation... eastern. HEEHEE. 'nuff said. ok, back to work. byebye. |
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| 06-Jun-2007 00:12 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hullo choohian, yep, spc is a defensive stock and a dividend play. so not really the stock for a trader, since by value per dollar invested, it isn't worth, esp now. if you're looking long term as FA tho, then yes. it's a good stock to hold. even if there's no capital upside, the divvie year on year already will be more than good. having said that tho, some of the reits could prob equal in divvie yield or exceed SPC. but they're dif industries. so always good to hold a range. that's the basis of a defensive portfolio. act if you read my post carefully, what cks says is nothing different from mine. my 1st pt was SHORT TERM. he's lkg mid to long term. Oil, like i said, if they strike it, it's gold. that's a chance no one knows. so yea. gotta decide by your own personality first perhaps? what do you want from your stocks? if it's fast returns, then no, not SPC. if you want long term, then yes, SPC is a good one to hold. prob not enter yet tho. a bit too high. techs show signs of peaking. ard $5 or less would be good. but follow trend and see; don't set fixed targets. those are false things. good luck anyhow! elfie can't be bothered to argue protractedly on the merits of a stock or not. haha. elf's a realist. ie, the market proves the final point. keke. ok, just home from night out; gonna go zzz. hopefully can wake up early tmrw for work. nights all. |
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| 05-Jun-2007 14:33 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hi choohian, this one's for my favourite SJ grandma. keke. with regards to 1402's post in the SPC thread: in simple english: 1) the chairman's aim is acquisition: ie, short term costs will go up (bad for share px) 2) looking for potential oil targets (a big question mark: will strike gold if find viable oil source, if not, it's just money spent.) 3) not so interested in growing their refinery biz (damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario: refinery has traditionally been their strongest profit grower--less emphasis on this = bad. but even if they do so, there's greater competition in the refinery biz as well. ie, long term, this is a sunset industry/steady industry. which possibly explains why they're taking a risk by venturing into oil exploration instead.) all in all, not a rosy picture. qualification: only my interpretation of the chairman's msg. i know there are a lot of rabid SPC supporters out there. don't kill the messenger, or in this case, the translater, hor. haha. ok, busy day at work. byes for now. market losing momentum. UIC watchers be careful; breakout might not occur if macrotrend changes; it's currently seesawing. |
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| 04-Jun-2007 23:52 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hey colorado, apologies missed your post in this fast moving thread: why watch out for UIC: because its bollies are tight and breakout appears imminent. going by its previous data, a UIC breakout is worth abt 20% upside. However, the caveat is a holding period of at least 15 trading sessions for this value to be realised. note elf not vested yet ah. also note that current macrotrends are very weak. Yes the STI went up, but market is in fact mixed, and losing momentum. If you're vesting in UIC for a breakout, be prepared that the prevailing macrotrend (unease over shanghai and looking to dow for cues) may very well mess up this breakout; the way a macrotrend messed up HB's breakout in Feb. all very time-dependent now. as for when the bears will come. haha, don't havta see who's right lah. ultimately it's abt making money. right or wrong doesn't much matter. besides, let's not speculate. gotta see what is. |
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| 04-Jun-2007 23:39 |
EngKong
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Eng Kong - Wrts issue
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tech updates for the vested: ek going as expected. rayphua and i were actually expecting a slight consolidation for today. long term def uptrend, as shown by MACD getting stronger. short term (ie, next few sessions for the week, esp tmrw): consolidation in order. Candlesticks show resistance of uptrend to continue. the pivot is 25c. So if no sBB bugs the counter, that's what it shd naturally fall to. if BB itchy and want to play, expect 25.5-26c. either way, snail taking a break. better this way for the long termers: slow upgrowth is sustainable, not rapid spikes. cheers! |
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| 04-Jun-2007 23:33 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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bunnie! *hugs* yeps, my kitten and bunnie are very well behaved. rogue is a class all his own. keke. like them all tho! mineee! haha. :P singaporegal, depends on why i go on the hols for. if it's backpacking (ie, to see the place), that's budget, but if i'm going on a luxury tour, then i'll spend. spa...ooh....hokkaido onsens (hotsprings) in winter....in a cedar wood tub, or hot spring, with the snow falling all around you, and a mountain scene before you...ooh. *envy rayphua* sigh....mebbe get my fren to bring me there. hahahahaa. spas are lovely...you just soak there, as alfian sa'at says, 'the skinlessness of water', and just soak in all the peace and heat. ahhhh.....and with some good alcohol....double ahhhhh. *hahahaaa* :P btw, anyone got into eastern, as per my sunday post? shplayer (thanks da gege) just informed me, 2 for 1 split. heehee. elf very happy. heehee. |
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| 04-Jun-2007 16:37 |
EngKong
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Eng Kong - Wrts issue
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don't push so fast! slow down, snail! my margin acct not open yet! haha. |
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| 04-Jun-2007 16:19 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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lol. oh puppie....as though i would. but hahaha, you see, with pets, gotta keep them on their toes at times. if they think you really really like them, then they're likely to run riot on you. esp the rogue. hahahahaha! ahhh...jerome, you see, it's not only a qn of the mammoth, it's a qn of the right mammoth. ommmmm.... :P rayphua, eh, my hp is normally on sotto voce mode lah. so can't hear in crowded places. but yes, a new hp wld be good. am just hoping mine can tahan the 5 mths left to end of contract. but hhhmmmm....betting with my pets/pet's friend no fun. must increase difficulty level. haha. hows abt you and i have a bet instead? *grin* that'd be fun for the popcorn crowd. :P altho, taht means we need to find a counter where we disagree on, whcih might be difficult! *grin* there there puppy, missy sayang you, ok? *patpat* haha. |
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| 04-Jun-2007 16:09 |
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btw, is anyone looking at StA? it's beautifully chionging up now. eastonbay and trymyluck? this baby's a swinger's dream. hehe. ooh. elfie's gonna get a hp soon. eastonbay, shaking yet? hahahhahaha! |
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| 04-Jun-2007 16:04 |
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rogue: yes dahling, whatever you say, dahling. hahahahhaha! :P hey, jerome, elfie makes a preemptive strike: i'll broker a deal with you first: if you ever find the mammoth, we work together and i'll shove the pup in front of me when the mammoth comes charging. :P heehee. |
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| 04-Jun-2007 15:57 |
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jerome, that depends on your definition of 'bully'. :P oh, i know you're totally without skills *haha* but since you get along so well with rogue, thought the pair of you would make an excellent attraction in my zoo. two squabbling furballs. haha. hm....looks like my zoo needs a name....elf or elfin zoological gardens? suggestions, anyone? heehee. hmm...must figure out how to bait you now...you have been warned. hee. man, this can't possibly get any cornier. haha. |
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| 04-Jun-2007 15:40 |
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haha. rogue. a scamp = a rogue = a ragamuffin = a scurvy scallawag. different names for the same puppy. hahahahaa. and don't worry lah, the way you're practising your CBA, can afford a good life for you and your gf next time lah. wish you luck on that. :) jerome, no betting today, elf's comatose man....zzz...can barely function. besides, rogue no fun to bet with leh. no challenge. :P hmm...mebbe i shd bet with you instead? then can add to my zoo collection. haha. what will you be, a My Little Pony? hahahahhahaha! 
btw, choohian, an excellent definition of BB! lol. couldn't have said it better myself. haha. rogue, so school boy kuai meh? i'd have thought your motto would be "jing zao you jiu jing zao zui, ming ri you chou ming ri chou." haha. |
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| 04-Jun-2007 14:43 |
Others
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Squeeze Breakout Buys
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haha. gotta love this puppy of mine. haha. cyjjerry, if i may take your qn: when we talk abt ek, note that ray, vic and i are in it, and we're dif styles of investors. vic is in for long term, i'm for august for this counter (see the thread), rayphua as we all know, is abt the squeeze breakout. the tech targets i gave on the thread are actually for long term (august, if not later). but ok, short term targets, as per what rayphua warned (not to go in if you're not already vested): based on candlesticks and busd, momentum: thurs and friday broke out. that's day 1 and day 2. honestly, from a techie's perspective (i'm taking a short 1-4 days perspective now), you would not expect day 3--ie, today--to continue chionging. on probability, it is not likely to. what i'd expect instead is a consol to abt 25-26c level. for a few days, then cont upwards slowly. long term if you look from feb, it's pivoting upwards. in fact, it has gained momentum already. the new pivot pt is 25c, theoretically, now. ek is a snail; if the snail starts moving too fast before its ready, then it'd be primed for a big collapse. not what i'm lkg for. plus, considering its report is going to be released in aug, no sense if it chiongs ahead of its time. hope this helps... if you're lkg to square up, then well, from my view, i'd lk to buy in abt 25-25.5c. alt is to wait for 2nd wave, consol abt 27, then that's when i'd lk to enter. not now really, if i'm not vested yet. note above just my views, elf doesn't like to give px targets actually, since targets are an artificial concept to me; so do make up own mind yea. caveat emptor. |
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| 04-Jun-2007 14:31 |
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lol. oh my goodness, rogue, you're not only a scamp, you're also a language all your own! elf used to dance, but now i'm never gonna look at the word 'ballroom' in the same way ever again! hahahahahhaha. man. really wanna zzz liao....zzz.. thanks for the update on shanghai, pup. but as for effect on the sti: expect sti to keep going up, until someone panics and sell, then you'll see all red. but likely only temporary. |
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| 04-Jun-2007 09:39 |
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ooh. pretty pretty day on the market today. all green. ooh. keke. trymyluck and eastonbay, watching StA? keke. be careful of whipsaws tho (new phrase learnt by yours truly!) rogue my pet, the last time i backpacked cambodia, i spent abt S$1400 for 17 days, inclusive airfare, entrance to angkor, guide/car for the place (you need this), insurance, etc. Didn't just do angkor tho. i went to phnom penh (the pics of tuol sleng sure brings back the distaste of memories there. >~<) and south to the beaches in sihanoukville too. if you just do angkor, it's likely cheaper. altho haha, note that i went really basic. go sihanoukville. beach place. just slack and eat seafood. yabbies at 4 for US$1, sotongs at 6 for US$1. wash it all down with angkor beer. yumyum. gotta try frogs legs there too. with khmer spices. damn, getting hungry liao... k, elf was wkg last night til abt 430 am, now hyper and and at work. busy x3. gonna *poof* for the day, byebye! have a happy day on the market! damn ek chionging too fast! |
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| 03-Jun-2007 21:00 |
Hiap Hoe
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Looks like on an Uptrend
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sigh. ipunter, agreed lah. but ppl tend to mix up long term with short term. so there's convenient short hand for them. (ie, TA stocks= short term, FA stocks = longer term. aka, at least 2 mths) o/w, yea, honestly i don't draw such distinctions amongst my stocks myself. like i said, i'm a mixed bag of nuts. hahahaha. |
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