Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 14-Jun-2007 23:49 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hi da gege, yeps, got that abt the residential vs commercial deed. oh ok then. fits into picture. rem what i emailed you before, abt the % of UIC in public and private float? that my guess is that they're close to a GO since at least 78% of UIC is in private hands alr (the AR)... if you look at the time of the share buying and the rates of conversion, there's another party, Telegraph Developments. they buy mostly same day as Gokongwei. i believe they're on his side? MS, i'm not sure. kingmaker, definitely. 11% of UIC is in their hands. As a corporate entity, they probably will side no one (from time of announcements tho, if they're siding someone, it's Wee CY), but will let the two fight it out, and reap the 25% premium of ave last 5 days when UIC is taken private. worth a gamble, really. rem the target i called for you? looks like this might happen. |
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| 14-Jun-2007 18:04 |
Hiap Hoe
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Looks like on an Uptrend
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hm, actually, i think confidence (or rather, overconfidence) is a dangerous thing to have in a market. rather just suspend all hopes, expectations, thoughts, and just see the market for what it really is. win some, lose some. that's the name of the game. no need to get so caught up in winning everything, or catching all the peaks and all the troughs. just do what's possible, find a system that works for yourself, and in the end, the portfolio must turn out more greens than reds. that's all. win the war, not each individual battle. :) |
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| 14-Jun-2007 17:56 |
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ah. before i forget. sporeguy/shplayer: bollies are tight for UIC and tech signs show breakout upward. did also say that UIC's breakout if it does occur will not be a one day thing, but will consistently track the upper bollie for days. that appears to be happening now. be careful of macrotrend swinging it tho. why it's rangebound is due to the FA/psych reason: the sale of UIC building. they had intended it for commercial (or was it residental?) use, but the authorities do not allow it, so the sale of the building hangs in the balance. if they manage to successfully convert it to the landuse allowed, UIC will break out upward. if they cannot, the breakout will be downward. so in that sense there, techs might be less accurate than the news. of course, insiders always move a few days before the news are released. so just follow the lead techs there. busd your best guide. cheers! :) |
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| 14-Jun-2007 17:48 |
Hiap Hoe
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Looks like on an Uptrend
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keke. dragon, if can't wait, when it does a one day spike up to abt 1.10-1.13, cut out some then. it's ok to take a bit of loss sometime. all your own decision tho. if after that shoot up to 1.20 plus, don't kick me ah. all dep on personality, really. |
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| 14-Jun-2007 17:46 |
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aieeee....stressed with work. meh. sighhhh,..... no prob sandbox and since77. gotta ask qns to learn. and hey since77, you're older than me! :P jerome, a lot can be told from the busd. it's not just a matter of seeing red (sell down) or blue (buy up). it can be manipulation by the BBs for instance, you can see all red, when in fact it's passive accumulation. The clearest sign to sell a counter is when you see small lots buying, big lots selling. that means the BBs are distributing. rather difficult to just say this way tho. if you have a busd data of interest, could perhaps post it out? the way eastonbay (?) posted out StA, which is how we can deduce BB fight BB there. that's why that counter has such large intraday swings. perfect for momentum scalping really. hehe. k, byes for now. btw, singaporegal, go bintan...hm. didn't think of it leh. mebbe next time. :) |
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| 14-Jun-2007 12:35 |
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heya sandbox, no prob, all of us start out as newbies, heaven knows, i've made a heck of lot of mistakes myself before too, and am still making them. hehe. UTAC: chaikin is in fact peaking already while a/d is still increasing (rememebr, c/o leads a/d). meanwhile, px of UTAC is still heading up/constant, so what you're in effect seeing is a divergence in lead techs and price already. the bollies are actually not that tight yet, but can see lower bollie is getting closer to the line. as well, MAx gives a clearer picture: the long is headed for crossing of the short, ie, sell signal will be expected sometime later, if this trend continues. (note: most impt thing is to watch for macrotrends that will shift your techs). note however that longer term techs: MACD: shows UTAC still on uptrend in long term. when you look at the bar chart from may 16th onward, it is uptrend. Rem that trends are likely to continue unless a macro force works to skew it the other way. so all in all, what the picture reads is short term stagnation, long term uptrend. Be careful of a break below 0.995c, that's the cue to cut. For uptrend to continue, there must be a sustained and consistent break above 1.05. (ie, if break above it, but keeps hovering and going up/down around hte px, that's not considered a true breakout). Meanwhile, short term, candlesticks show resistance of uptrend to continue. So my guess for UTAC is range bound between 1.02 to 1.07 for this period of time. additionally: your tech target for this round is to high of ~1.18. pls note, i don't usually like to give px target, since must always watch out for macro trend. plus, there's a tendency that once targets are out, ppl are likely to keep it in their minds as fixed targets. think of px targets more as moving targets. always, you take what the market gives you, not what you want out of it. eg, for utac, if i'm vested, and i see consistent selling pressure at 1.1, i'd sell out at 1.09 instead of insisting on trying to hit the 1.18. the idea is profit. plus, time taken to wait for the 1.18 might be better spent in another counter. hihi since77 (your birth year, eh? keke): erm. i'm using from LP2 screen, right click on the counter of your choice, and select 'time and sales'. you get the minute by minute detail of busd. that's all. the rest i use are from SJ. candlesticks, bollies, a/d, c/o, williams, rsi, MACD, MAx, bar chart. these are my tools. i dont use stochs. i shd like market depth tho. keejanngggggg!!!!! *wail wail wail noise noise noise* muahahhahaha. :P and yea. most impt of all, if you're doing techs, make sure it's a stock that responds to the techs you use! not all stocks respond to all techs. learnt that the hard way. haha. cheers to you all! good luck trading. :) be cautious during this period tho. insane market. |
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| 13-Jun-2007 14:30 |
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lol. yes. esp since i'll be on hols too. :P |
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| 13-Jun-2007 09:15 |
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rayphua, of course i'm sweet. *muacks* keke. but yea, agree with him. busd not so on-the-surface to read. sometimes, just because a stock reads sell down all the way, doesn't mean it's being sold down. if you see a/d line going up and all busd is sell down, might be passive accumulation going on (ie, buyers waiting for sellers to throw to their price). time of trade impt too. vols as well. quite a lot to learn to read and interprete. for a start, the blues are easier to learn. and belatedly, shijiez/jerome, you don't need to buy expensive software to start learning TA really. all i'm using is poems busd, and SJ charts. all free. seriously. what i would like tho, is market depth. keejang!! you reading this? :P hm. my ksw is doing very prettily. keke. |
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| 12-Jun-2007 23:21 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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oh yea. just confirmed uptrend. touching upper bollie. abt to break out. had read it wrongly for shplayer actually. pai seh. i thought was going to break down. hahahaha. (cf singaporegal's post on 9th june) hm. 4.08. with likely a good interim divvie, worth considering. hm....... |
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| 12-Jun-2007 23:18 |
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singaporegal. *hugs* sigh. elf v stressed with work and all. :( not going kl, trip got scuttled thanks to bird flu. but anw, still going to take off. figured out, one day shopping, one day alcoholing, one day sunbathing at sentosa, final day slack, sounds like a perfect vacation. ahh. keke. hm. seeing a lot of new members. the rayphua effect? keke. blackjac: just a brief list of acronyms for the newbies: note, explanations given are generally only. note that note all indicators are accurate for all stocks. a/d = accumulation/distribution. it's a tech chart that measures buying and selling pressure. a/d up => more ppl are accumulating the stock. c/o = chaikin oscillator. like a/d, it's a lead indicator. ie, both a/d and c/o move before the share price moves. c/o leads a/d as well. which is why a 'perfect buy' signal is when c/o is up, a/d just turning/not yet, price range bound and bollies tight. bollies = bollinger bands. i call them bollies 'cos it makes them sound cute. haha. (yeayea ok, bimbo moment. :P) BB = big boys. the ones who move the market, who cause the tech patterns you see. which us hay bees try to track. choohian had an extremely good definition, see if you can find it. keke. take note BBs come in different classes too. their patterns of movement are different. you'd see it on the busd differently. like right now, if you look at charts, consistently what you'll find is local BBs. foreign funds are only in very few of local stocks now. busd = buy up sell down data. which is one of the most basic but best tools for seeing what's really going on. MACD = moving average convergence divergence. a lag indicator. better for newbies and solid stable stocks. same as MA crossover (MAx) in a way. it'll cross a buy signal when the short crosses the long, and sell when the long crosses the short. lag indicator so movement more definitive, but since it moves after share price moves, if what you want is a breakout, you'll likely miss it on the MACD/MAx. hm. what else is there? oh. 'Analyst: recommended: BUY.' = better consider twice. haha. and rogue! good puppy! *patpat* keke. k all, nites! :) |
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| 12-Jun-2007 17:52 |
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niama...jerome, dare to ask the elf to pay up...i get my puppy to bite you then you know..... muahahhahaha. ok knocking off work soon. had a lousy day at office man. gonna go tiffany's or alcoholing. kaoz. |
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| 12-Jun-2007 17:36 |
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no prob rayzor. :) as ipunter wisely pointed out, dif ppl have dif needs, so they have to trade differently. pick the style that best suits you/create your own style. that's the best way to be successful longterm investor. :) scotty, my godpa is happily in aussieland counting his moolah in both ASD and S$, on his porch watching the sunset and river in front and mountain behind. siggghhghhhhhhh. :P |
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| 12-Jun-2007 17:17 |
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hm. just for the sake of forumers here, perhaps better clarify: vic is a pure FA kinda guy. he'll dig up dirty, grubby ol' kantangs from heaven-knows-where, and buy them in and sit in for months. that's how he can double or more his investments each time. Perhaps at breakout point, he'll do some fast punts, but primarily, he's a buy and hold kinda guy. elf trade by a mass of methods, i simply follow what the market dictates. now's a trending market and a trending market for pennies, so i'm in them. note however that some of the pennies i took position in months ago already. sometimes i scalp trades, but entirely depends on the charts (and what my job allows). But basically, i don't do contra. rayphua on the other hand is a contra-ist's dream. and not a dry one. :P momentum trading mainly. so more likely than not for the T+5. note that i never guarantee that i'm accurate 100%, nor do call myself a guru/expert etc. i believe neither of my bros do, either. it's always caveat emptor; as an investor, you must always make up your own mind. which is why on our part, we're more keen that ppl learn to fish rather than just ask for fishes. think wealth growing, ppl, something for a lifetime, not brief feasts. |
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| 12-Jun-2007 17:06 |
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yep ipunter, thanks for that bit of advice. :) rayzor, traditionally, det breakout via bollingers, c/o and/or a/d up, price range bound. because c/o leads a/d, so a classic buy signal is when price is stagnant/down, a/d still down or dithering, c/o up, bollies tight. you can look at price momentum too. and candlesticks. hgm is showing this pic. c/o very strongly up for past days. vols getting higher each day too. bollies prob best signal of breakout. but note that bollies can mean breakout downward too: the other signals tell you up or down. MA and MAx are lag indicators, so you'd not normally catch a breakout on these signs. if you prefer pure charting, look for the W formation (perhaps ipunter and other chartists could better elaborate here?): a higher low, higher high and sustained break above the previous peak on increased vols denotes breakout likely. the breakout pt for hgm is actually 47.5c: primarily because the control is here. witness the 2000 lots queuing to sell at that px. Not ready to run yet. |
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| 12-Jun-2007 17:00 |
HG Metal
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HG Metal another Gem
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hey sporeguy, thanks for the info. which puts upside til abt 1st week august then. am fine with that. had estimated sept actually, since that's when their Q/FYE results will be. ek, ksw, hgm all same then. keke. hm yea, note for forumers/newcomers: elf doesn't play contra. if i'm scalping as momentum, i'd tell. but i don't usually do momentum trades 'cos can't watch all the time. so if i highlight a trade, pls, the same advice of not for contra holds. yep, concur with rayphua. don't have the charts he does but yes. poised but not breaking out yet. don't think BB ready to let this guy run. very strong control at 47.5c. if you're doing as a contra, wait for positive break of the 47.5c. resistance will be at the previous high of 51 (or was it 55?). |
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| 12-Jun-2007 14:41 |
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hm ok. elf foresees a possible swarming of ppl on hgmetals, now that vic and ray have cfmed that they've bought it too. reposting what i posted on the hg thread here. note current data shows 2000 lots plus selling at 47.5c. they're depressing the counter now. perhaps the BBs not ready for breakout yet; alt early buyers cashing in. no access to busd so can't tell. caveat emptor -------- erm, ppl, please please DON'T just jump in 'cos you see vic, ray and my name 'supporting' the counter! do carry out due diligence. eg, even when vic told me abt the counter, i still checked up the AR, announcements AND the TA before deciding a buy. and note that our trading styles are very different ah. unless i'm far mistaken, rayphua is likely to scalp this counter at breakout. i'm having a wait and see attitude. if the breakout appears sustained to me, i might keep the stock. its FA is solid. believe vic is on same thoughts with me abt this (not sure tho, check with him). note, i don't like to give buy/sell details, but in case of swarming, just fyi: my vested px: 46.5 Am putting a stop loss at ~43.5. it's not the upside that is impt, it's the stop loss. |
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| 12-Jun-2007 14:37 |
HG Metal
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HG Metal another Gem
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erm, ppl, please please DON'T just jump in 'cos you see vic, ray and my name 'supporting' the counter! do carry out due diligence. eg, even when vic told me abt the counter, i still checked up the AR, announcements AND the TA before deciding a buy. and note that our trading styles are very different ah. unless i'm far mistaken, rayphua is likely to scalp this counter at breakout. i'm having a wait and see attitude. if the breakout appears sustained to me, i might keep the stock. its FA is solid. believe vic is on same thoughts with me abt this (not sure tho, check with him). note, i don't like to give buy/sell details, but in case of swarming, just fyi: my vested px: 46.5 Am putting a stop loss at ~43.5. it's not the upside that is impt, it's the stop loss. |
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| 12-Jun-2007 12:13 |
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ahahhaha! choohian, if i can have an SJ grandmama, why not? :P *hugs to you* :P ok, gotta go now, see ya! |
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| 12-Jun-2007 12:09 |
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hi sporeguy, the drop on feb 5th was due to exercise of warrants into shares. techwise, HG is ready for breakout, that's for sure. FA-wise, details as follows: 1) HG metals is in the steel industry. namely, construction, ship building and ship repair. manufacturing as well. but the 1st three are the current boom industries. 2) there's been active conversion by parties from loan agreemnt/buying on open market into shares. 3) The new indep director appointed, samuel hon, used to be senior exec VP of institutional banking in UOB. they appear to me to be professionalising their co. 4) financial details as follows: cash flow (from quarterly results, 331/307 cf to 31/3/06, in S$'000): 18,190 cf to 12,170. Recorded an increase of 23% in returns, 214,041 from 173,129. PAT increased, 7,790 cf to 4,609. Liabilities have went down, net current assets up, 80,567 cf 53,706. (31 mar 07 vs 31 sept 06). Debt has significantly decreased. NAV is 29.47 vs previous 32.94c. note however that this apparent decrease in NAV is not due to a decrease in earnings, but an increase in share float: 262mil cf to 176mil previously. PAT has in fact went up by 67%. The diluted EPS, perhaps a fairer gauge: 3.77 cf to 2.63. Gearing has reduced from 2.02 to 1.38 currently, cf period is FYE to 31/3 1st Q. shareholders funds significantly increased. currently holding 77.3mil cf to 58mil as at 30/9/06. note: all figures taken from their AR. do check to confirm them tho, in the event i made a type error. :P but all in all, looks quite solid FA to me. techs good too. wld you be able to calculate a wave target for this baby? |
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| 12-Jun-2007 09:33 |
Others
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Squeeze Breakout Buys
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hullo rayphua, i posted on fellowship but in case you're too busy to go over there *haha*: rayphua, apologies, can't join your group 'cos its msn. if anyone in there has a longer term focus and shd like help on that aspect tho, feel free to ask the elf via the ray. :) i could perhaps help in structuring an appropriate portfolio for you, customised on your own risk appetite and personality? 'cos i used to do both retail and institutional fund mgmt. rather than just doing contras only, which are essentially a short term measure, for trending markets. But markets don't always remain trending. THere are bulls, and then there are bears. Investing, however, is for all seasons. Although i understand that there are many different personalities on the market, so this is perhaps only for those with a longer term perspective? no harm learning more for the future. wealth growing is about years, not days. :) |
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