Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 11-Jul-2007 01:17 |
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heylo rogue, yep it's ok puppie, both of us got taken for a ride... guess we're both quite stupid/trusting eh. *haha. bleah*. but i think, the impt thing is to move on? gotta look on the bright side. :) aft all, enough troubles in life already. >~< missy elf won't be on SJ very often either. really need to focus on work now... just passed my 6 mth probation, so got quite a lot more responsibilities now. you take care yea? and do keep in contact ok? wld hate to lose a friend like you. :) sama sama to the rest of the fellowship! ok nites, just got home. shacked liao. impt meeting tmrw. gotta get some rest. nites to all! :) |
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| 10-Jul-2007 13:56 |
SPC
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SPC
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wah, haven't been in this thread for a long time. glad to see the SPC-ers doing well. one of the oldest threads around man! speaking of spc...wonder how giantlow is doing.... chinkiasu, no idea where my godpa is actually. haven't heard fr him recently... anw, back to topic. yea. PE ratio for SPC is low, cf to most other blues now. qn is how high it can hit....woah, 32c divvie is certainly something not to be sniffed at. at current px, that's a yield of ~5% for this period alone... note, elf not vested in this ah. |
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| 10-Jul-2007 11:06 |
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keke, yeps grandma, elfie ok. or even if not, will get there. :) hugs to you! and hm. mebbe all the females shd get out one day together eh? let's dump all the men and just us girls! keke. hugs to singaporegal too :) |
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| 10-Jul-2007 10:14 |
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haha, it's ok, shplayer. well said, anyway. this is why you're one of those i respect a lot. :) and keke, yes chinkiasu! i second those pompoms! :))))) ok, elfie really got to work now. this is too distracting. market is very, very good. ironic to be arguing in such a time. let's focus on it. enough for all, be you TA, FA or whatever. :) going forward (as usual, just my opinion ah): i'm expecting market to be up for now til the results in aug. then likely a slight dip in sept/oct. perfect time to pick up undervalued counters then. keep for year end rally to likely abt june next year, time of beijing olympics. i've actually cut out of more speculative counters (yeayea, live chicken, not dead tiger) and am parked a portion into defensive counters already. difficult, esp when i see the pennies and everything cheonging, but i guess, the first principle is to protect your investment. too risky for me currently. as per usual, caveat emptor. just my opinions. :) aie, ok, gotta go! bossie calling! |
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| 10-Jul-2007 09:28 |
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yeps, concur with esmiley, chinkiasu, tanglinboy and so many others here. very unpleasant episode, saddened by it. but yea. let's move on. c'mon ppl, i'm sure we can agree to disagree, isn't it? keep friendly, harmless and fun. :) oh and of course, educational. chinkiasu, keep those emoticons coming! they sure do help to brighten up the mood here. :)))) oh and yea. let's not abuse the privileges of SJ yea. We can do that by simply being responsible. It's really a good site. So c'mon, admin, take heart! Cheers to keejang and the rest of the team! 
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| 07-Jul-2007 13:17 |
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for newbies and whom might be interested in investing philosophy. as ipunter rightly points out, one's enemy in the market is exactly that, yourself. So perhaps, it is best to work with and not against your own nature. That means learning what style best suits you, and modifying existing styles to suit your own profile. No need to be a blind graham adherent, or tech adherent, or whatever. Think, and adapt. The following are the common profiles of investors: (just brief summary) 1) Value investing: Perhaps the best example would be Graham Benjamin. The Intelligent Investor. Go read. Quiet, no flash, no splash, hold a counter for years. Once it hits fair value, sell. That is all. When it drops, you buy more. The idea is constancy, an aim of 10-20% pa over a period of more than 15 years. Which is fair, when you consider that in bear markets, every single market in history has given up all their gains of the bull years. 2) Growth investing: The continuation of the value phase. Which is when you pick the fastest growing counters, normally at high PE ratios. Which is presumably justified by its future spectacular earnings. High risk, high reward. Eg, Cisco Systems (US stock). was growing in the 1990s at 30-50% pa for almost a decade. The PE ratio was >100x. But people still bought. Then one day, it crashed. From $80 to about $13. But note, if you get in at the right time, it can be very, very profitable. Think buying Yahoo, Coca cola (one of the buffett stocks, incidentally), procter and gamble, in a time when no one else would have. Or in our local context, buying genting int at its IPO, and still holding on now. 3) Momentum investing: The philosophy behind this is the 80-20 adage. ie, stocks move 80% up/down in 20% of the time. Momentum traders aim to catch this. You'd seldom hold beyond a month. Requires constant watching, fast cutting in and out. That's why a lot of momentum trading is dependent on techs, and not FA (as the 1st two are). Because only techs can map out the psychology and sentiment behind it. Excellent for this year's market. But not likely to succeed in a peaking or bear market. You'd be scrapping the barrel. 4) Technical investing: Rather like momentum, except the holding period is longer. A variety of tools used here, as well. The aim is perhaps less the adrenalin rush of 80-20, but a more sustainable 10-50%, depending on the risk profile of the techie. So yea. that's about it. 4 types of investors. Again, nothing either right or wrong. it's simply finding the style that best suits yourself. not about TA vs FA, or whatever. Most ppl are not just one single type, anyway. They tend to be a mix. So use what suits you, taht is all. Perhaps the most impt thing: don't be buying/selling just because someone says buy/sell. That, is the perfect market trap. Which explains why most retail 'investors' lose long term. In one word: Greed. |
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| 07-Jul-2007 13:01 |
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re to vic/joeman and whoever else of the two sentiments: 1) the market, as victorian pointed out, is a zero sum game. newbies, or old hands, must realise that whatever advice you choose to follow, no one made the buy/sell call for you but you yourself. As such, accept responsibility for your own decisions. Because, unless in a very, very rare instance which is unlikely to happen in singapore, no one is holding a gun to your head to force you to call your broker and buy a counter. 2) when one makes, all is fine and dandy, esp in the market of the last two weeks: practically any penny you buy will go up. doesn't take an expert or whatever to do the probability stats. But question if it is fair on your part to either worship or blame the person who gave you that 'tip'. After all, if you did not do due diligence, who's to blame but yourself? 3) The trouble with this current crazed market, is just that. Crazed. Don't be ruled by your emotions and easy money. "The intelligent investor" needs to be exactly that. Intelligent. Qn: how many really know what the market is about? how many have really mastered their TA, or FA, or psychology? Or have you just been depending on 'hot tips'? Of course, it takes years to master a skill. And ultimately, the faith of an investor has to be in only one person alone: himself. Make your own minds. 4) SJ Admin has been very, very kind to give a site for free. Let's not abuse the privileges. No defamation, or legalities or such threats. It is a jungle world, yes. Which is why, there are also codes of honour. If you cannot agree, then, agree to disagree. Behave like gentlemen and men of honour, and not petty schoolboys kicking up dirt in a kindergarten schoolyard. 5) ghlau935, really, you do not need to apologise, or feel bad. i was in your situation once, too. but then, i realised. no one forces another to buy/sell. The market takes its own. Zero sum game is exactly that. No place for recriminations, or joy, or megalomania. It's a simple thing: profit, or loss. So yea, no need to apologise, either on your own behalf, or ray's or whoever. Because the simple fact is, none of us have ever claimed to be 100% accurate. it is and always will be, caveat emptor. |
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| 04-Jul-2007 15:03 |
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hugs to my kitten, puppy and godpa. and of course, singaporegal and grandma choohian. :) hey kittie, bring your missy out for a date sometime. ;) bunnie MIA cos quit job already, so happily hopping free. keke. market's crazy. so much easy money. just keep sane lah, people. *think zen* calm water...stay unmoved....*zennn* hehe. and aie. pup and godpa, be good, ok? elfie just needs peace.... cheers to you all. :) |
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| 02-Jul-2007 14:23 |
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lol. relax lah puppy...you shd know by now that your missy never means any harm. right? :) just take care lah. elfie just very tired out....need to focus on recovering. peace to all; let's keep this a friendly and helpful forum, yea? like what admin posted on etiquette. we're here to help each other. it's tough enough already, being a small fish in a big pond. no sense for small fishies to fight each other. stay cool! 
k need to work, byebye. :) |
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| 02-Jul-2007 13:55 |
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hi all, thanks to singaporegal, shplayer, esmiley, fruitty and all else for their words of encouragement. much appreciated. :) just tired out handling family stuff lah. haven't had much time to watch market recently, to be honest. just swallowed up in work and stuff. in any case, market appears to be topping out. divergence between index and pennies cheonging already. like before the feb crash, remember? do take care, all. frothy markets are difficult to predict. better a small gain in hand than risking too much. k, byes for now. and puppy, do be good, ok? no biting now. good boy. :) |
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| 01-Jul-2007 06:45 |
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singaporegal... *hugs* hey to esmiley too *hugs* :) elfie just very tired out and heartsick by recent events. lots of stuff have happened. need to focus on recuperating my strength. investors and traders, just remember one thing: in your rush for profit, never lose yourself. Because at the end of day, money is just that: money. Sure, it can buy you lots of stuff; but you can never buy a single true friend, or a single thing of real value, with money. Because at the end of day, there's only one thing a person needs: a clear conscience. Crazy markets bring out the worst in human nature. Greed, envy, impulse. But money is a tool. Master it, and not be its slave. |
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| 28-Jun-2007 16:19 |
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geez, godpa, pet, peace now...dun gotta be so antagonistic leh... focus on the market... yesterday was perfect for picking... hm...godpa's likely back during august, that's when vic's course is, too. you two can meet then...wanna meet up with elfie then? keke. |
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| 28-Jun-2007 11:57 |
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oh yah. and elf will be going for vic's FA course. will likely take a back seat unless nece tho. must let my gege shine. keke. you guys here, do consider going for it. mebbe not for the course, but yea, considering how much we're making off the market, perhaps it's good to be kind to those who have less....must always think of the ppl around, and not just self... singaporegal! *hugs* grandma! *hugs* keke. ok, gonna go for lunch now. haven't been able to keep my food down. sigh. weh. |
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| 26-Jun-2007 14:24 |
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hey all, am back. but excuse, will be just this long post. elfie's been (trying) to help vic through this period, that's why no time even to watch market or post. so eastonbay/choohian, you were right; a lot taken in private; but do excuse. some things, like grief, are perhaps better kept in the dignity of one-to-one communication. anw. market update: did say there's a bull trap last week alr. today's T+6. so those on speculatives, if you haven't cut yet and can't bear to; the other option is to wait for T+8. ie, thurs. On syndicated counters, they will run up on the T+8 and after because that is when all contras, even of the sBBs will have been forced depressed/sold. Your risk however, is that it is not a forced depression, but a genuine distribution (ie, won't go up after). so watch your counter carefully. The dow drop and fed jitters are helping the BBs in this case here. Timing of the contrarian sell call on s'pore market is not a coincidence, if you realise. Like federal. highly speculated counter. sell signal actually on 19th jun. stop loss was at 67.5. that has been breached. one of two options for those still in: cut straight, or wait for T+8, but be prep that it might go lower. other matters: pls excuse vic for not posting as much as he did before. there's really no way a person can do so. anw, for his kantang updates, feel free to ask me. i won't be able to give as detailed FA as he does; but the TA is no problem, as i've completed for the set of 20 for 4Q already. Have also been keeping an eye on his current kantangs act, whether i post in the thread or not. Do find me in this thread tho; am seriously too tired to go hunting for various kantang threads. on the new kantangs: we were not going to release it too early, as we wanted to help ppl avoid speculation and frenetic buying: you guys know vic's style, as well as mine: everything on facts and not on 'recommended: BUY' philosophy. which is related to the FA course he's doing now. We really believe in educating people as investors, and not just giving out 'tips'. cos at the end of the day, in the market, you can only depend on yourself. so anw. the first thing he's doing is just a tester. elf will likely facilitate as assistant instructor in the session. note: i'm not going to give out 'hot tips' tho. I'd rather people learn how to see the signs for themselves. yea, FA course. so what i'll assist vic in, is in the visualisation aspect: eg, from SJ charts (no need expensive software): how to tell that a stock is cornered; how to tell if it's in phase 1 of accumulation, or growth phase, when it is likely to gap up; when it is a good time for T+3,4,5 accumulation, etc. k, gotta go, boss calling. |
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| 21-Jun-2007 22:17 |
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hey vicly187, don't do contra. don't buy on 'tips'. remember that if the 'hot tip' has reached you, it's probably passed through a gazillion other people already. learn either TA or FA. it's the skills you need to learn. the stock market is not a get-rich-quick place, even if it seems that way. If you approach it with that mentality, you're likely going to lose in the long run. btw, contra is dangerous precisely because you'll fall into the BB T+3,4,5 trap. |
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| 20-Jun-2007 20:25 |
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Eng Kong - Wrts issue
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hey kilroy, one last thought: they may be increasing ek float size because it's too cornered, so need to avoid the 80% ruling to avoid having to make a GO. which is not part of the game plan. |
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| 20-Jun-2007 20:23 |
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Eng Kong - Wrts issue
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hey kilroy, don't expect the placement to have much effect on fair value target, since the dilution for the top shareholders is less than 0.1% of their holdings. (see sgx announcements today) whole market wise: ek original float was 233mil. with the new 418,000 shares in, the dilution in effect is only 0.17% of the original. NTA-wise, the change is only ~0.1c. ie, at book-to-price of 2x, fair value target shifts by 0.2c. A negligible difference, really. esp since by sgx regulation, the pennies move by 0.5c bid size for trading! currently seeing quite a bit of sell downs, likely a kneejerk reaction to placement. plus contra profit taking. but then, no dif from the initial peak-to-consol that i called. in fact, i'm not expecting ek to do a complete retracement. don't believe it'll drop below 31c, actually. but see how. think the new converted warrants were likely mainly owned by the top directors: see sgx announcements a couple mths ago: the directors had been converting their warrants like crazy since then. logical pattern follows through. and what does mister kilroy thinks? :) |
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| 20-Jun-2007 12:15 |
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lol yea pet. if you want to bait a pet, you gotta do it slow and gentle. cannot just whack. they must come to you willingly. ok, elfie got sudden errand to do. gotta log off now. byebye. |
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| 20-Jun-2007 11:52 |
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hahahhahah!!! so rogue, i see you've decided on the species of pet that jerome's gonna be? :P sure sure no prob, you're my pet, so he can be my pet pet. ie, your pet. 
hm. dowan a tortoise leh....don't like reptiles. wombat? quite cute....hm. see what he says first. if he doesn't want to play then no need. keke. haha, breathe in cold air. sure. haha. |
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| 20-Jun-2007 11:47 |
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shijiez, when you buy a stock, you don't look so much at its price than at its potential rate of return. if for instance, jade (penny stock at abt 20c now) can only return you 5c (ie, 25%), but yzj can return you 50% (ie, $3--the way cosco is): which would you buy? assuming your funds enough of course. gems quite easy to read. no fun for bet. must take something more interesting. heehee. rogue, your best friend went into hiding already eh? :P |
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