Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 29-Jul-2007 20:31 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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haha kid, i can sleep it away precisely cos it's good weather for zzzz...... :P anw, just some maths practice on my part; FA ppl, pls do correct me if i'm wrong on the following: calculations of change in px and strike px for entry when rights are issued: for gen int (since my kitten happens to be in it): current px: 89.5c. PE ratio stated as 85.2x. => EPS is 1.05c. share cap of GIL is 6000mil. there are 2 bond issues which are entitled to the new rights too (3rights for 5 owned shares). 1st bond issue was 673 mil, 2nd issue 363mil. original share cap of GIL as in 1Q07 report was 5894mil. => max share cap of GIL incl all bonds converted = 6930mil. (without = approx 6000mil). So with rights in, share cap = 9600 mil at conservative, 11088mil incl bonds and rights. hence using PE ratio of 85.2x (which is really very high, but ok, since this is a growth stock): fair value estimate of GIL post rights is ~56c at conservative, lowest is approx 48c assuming all bonds and all rights converted. ie, post rights, i'd expect GIL to drop to 48-56c range. likely closer to the higher end, since the 2nd bond issue has a strike px of $1.2, so that means those who bought the bonds are not likely to have converted them. which means if you buy GIL now at 89.5c, with the 3:5 rights to share ratio, right issue px at USD$0.10 (abt S$0.16), your fair px is about 0.62 per share including rights cost. ie, one actually pays a premium now. conclusion: more worthwhile to wait for rights to be issued and traded, and strike in to buy after that. Alt strike px to enter GIL pre-rights is 80c at max. is this correct??? note difficult to ascertain fair px for strike entry since the bonds are in effect a 17.5% dilution of the original share cap, so it's a very big variance factor. |
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| 29-Jul-2007 15:11 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hey kiddo! whatcha doing online now? researching your kantangs? hehe. zzz...perfect weather for sleeping...elfie gonna go nap....or mebbe plonk on the piano. haha. cya! :) monday's gonna be another play day. sit tight and hold fast. haha. |
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| 29-Jul-2007 14:52 |
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What happen if you cannot pay your contra loss?
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yep, well said by investment. :) and yep, bentan, chins up. no point letting worry drag you down. after all, think about it this way: the damage is done already, isn't it? will worry help you solve the problem? as humans we then to think and second guess alot. but then, worry and regret solves nothing. so yep. do what is necessary to help yourself. take proactive steps. most impt is to learn from the mistake. i'm sure you'll be stronger after this. :) with regards to the two counters: starcruises is a definite sell; map if you can hold, might actually have a chance of recovery, but not for a month or so. why i'd say sell is perhaps more for your peace of mind? since, do correct me if i'm wrong, but you're probably very stressed right now, and i don't think you can watch the screen clearly and rationally, whilst working your job and figuring out plan with brokers? ie, unless i'm mistaken, if we were to rationally sort out what's weighing you down, it's three things: 1) map and starcruises (along with watching the market and twitching over every bid movement) 2) loan repayment 3) focusing on your job, which you can't afford to lose. (and you've already said you can't conc on it) in investing, one works with his personality, not against. So the first is one worry which you can cut out straight. in which case, bite the bullet and take the loss; don't look back after. Not because these counters don't have chance of going up, but so that you can conserve strength to solve (2) and (3), which are the more important problems. pls don't take the above as me telling you what to do, ok? elfie's not so presumptuous. am just sharing my approach to problems. so take of it what will help you, yea? :) if the 79 behind your name is your age, then well, elf's actually younger than you. but yea. we all have our own problems, and duties, and responsibilities. me, i'm just taking over the loan for my grandma's flat; and trust me, it's way more than the 25-30k that you're losing. hehe. but well, that's life. we just do the best we can with what we have. When trouble's at your door; all the more one has to keep calm. The key, to me, is to focus and not let things get you down. Am currently investing for my family too; so perhaps that's one guard against greed: if you can think and say to yourself, that this is for them, (or for my own future), then you might be less tempted to give up long term gains for short. whatever it is, it is all part of life. Just as there are downs, there will, always be ups. So keep your chin up, focus on your job, on solving the loan problem. Don't worry or stress; focus on what you can do. and then, just do it bit by bit. You can. :) cheers! |
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| 29-Jul-2007 14:38 |
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AWAKENING OF BEAR
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yea. agree with moneymaking. 4Q of the year is for oil, marine and tech stocks. (nd to be careful choosing the last tho.) keep calm, people. if you are not on contra/overmargin, you can afford to hold the fundamentally sound stocks. elf is actually on margin, but my lines are liquid enough to afford a 20% drop, and i can still buy in and hold. so no prob. pick your counters well, don't give in to panic. pls do try to avoid the speculatives tho. cheers and good luck to all. :) |
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| 29-Jul-2007 14:33 |
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NATIONAL DAY RALLY
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because current market is sentiment driven, and badly affected by dow, what is key to the sti's recovery is less the earnings reports of s'pore companies coming up (which will mostly be stellar), but the movement of the dow, and china. if dow can keep above 13,000; sti will stablise as investors calm down. the other lynchpin is china: it resisted the dow's fall on friday. if china goes up, asian region will likely go up, if not, at least stablise a little. you'll likely see a divergence in stocks now tho; rather than a broad falling/rising. ie, some local stocks are going to go up (the ones with sound fundamentals and low PE, plus good dividends/half year reports), while the speculatives, esp those with trading curbs, are likely going to go down--these latter will be affected too as if their half year results are in Aug and it doesn't show what everyone was speculating will happen, the px will be driven down even further. wld expect bleeding on mon, tues to latest friday tho, due to contra T+5,6,7 trap. those who rushed in last wed morn will have to settle latest this coming fri; so if they don't have cash to hold the counter, wld expect forced selling on quite a few, esp the pennies. margin calls then set in for those who are at the 130% mark. beyond that; losses should be stemmed. unless of course the dow decides to really drop further. basically, make provisions for a 20% drop in your portfolio. if you can handle that; hold. stocks will go up after. part of the cycle: we've had a very good run. so what goes up, must come down. but too, what goes down, must go up. meanwhile it's blood on the streets so the buying opps are here; but gotta choose carefully and cautiously. cowards live longer than heroes. haha. :P (note, above all just my opinion; caveat emptor) |
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| 28-Jul-2007 15:48 |
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What happen if you cannot pay your contra loss?
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and ok, mebbe a bit late, but as what singaporegal, myself and a lot of other old hands have always been saying: never play contra. |
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| 28-Jul-2007 15:46 |
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What happen if you cannot pay your contra loss?
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hi bentan, perhaps you could speak to giantlow (on fellowship thread, likely) abt his experiences? might help. o/w, techs as follows for starcruises and MAP, hope they'll aid your decision. note not vested in either myself; please do make up own mind, and just take the following as an aid, not a 'must do'. they are just my tech reading, k? starcruises: peak was 24th jul at high of 59.5c. thereaft is down. been consistently sold down since then, vol is decreasing too. wld advise an immediate cut since if vol decreases too low, might gap down further. as for px, you have a potential of up to 54c on mon, but on back of negative sentiment, and since this is a highly speculative loss making stock (ie, not fundamentally supported), my advice is to cut at opening px, and nevermind if it goes up one, or two cents aft, because your risk of fall is to 51c: from market depth, the support for this counter dries up at 51c; thereaft the fall is to 45c. note queues to sell outnumber queues to buy. a total of approx 13mil lots queuing to sell between 53.5 to 58c, but buy queue to 51c is only 5.5mil lots. from fri's busd and depth data. MAP: too new to do much charting on, so solely from busd data and bid/ask as of friday: weed out lots of 200 and above: they are selling. 'nuff said. less drastic than starcruises tho: for retailers: appears as tho quite a lot are still hoping for 64 to 70c to sell. depends entirely on what px they are willing to let go at: if they choose to sell down, the buying can only be supported to 58c. thereafter, it thins out to 55c. upon which a freefall to 35c is the next likely move. momentum decreasing on decreasing vol; need to be cautious. wld expect opening at 61, possible slight up to 63, thereaft down. depends entirely on the sellers at >64c now, when they'll give up. tentative support at around this px of 58-61c. advise cut immediately if drops to 58c. ---------- note to correct a common misperception about busd data: you need to weed out large lots and watch the time of trade as well, to really see what direction things are moving in. more often than not, you'll find large lots selling, small lots buying. clear sign of insitutions bailing out, but retailers chionging in. pls do make up yr own mind tho; caveat emptor. good luck tho! :) |
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| 27-Jul-2007 16:13 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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agree with jkbk! china is one class act! amazing...juggernaut alright. |
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| 27-Jul-2007 15:47 |
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techs: dow support was at 13,500. that's broken as of yest. the next support is 12,800. if it drops below that; the freefall is to abt 10,800. rough gauge, count 80% of the counter you want as of yesterday's closing, and that is a viable strike price for entry. so not yet. follow trend tho. if ppl keep selling, no pt buy up one shot. caution always better. sti: 3,500 was the support. we've broken that. the next support is 2,800. |
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| 27-Jul-2007 15:41 |
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fwah. just stepped back into office. sea of red man. fwah. don't bottom fish yet because in US time, this is a thursday; there is one more day to go: tonight. DJIA might drop further. If it does, today is not hell yet; monday will be the real drop. if instead dow goes up, then mon morn is perfect for buying back. but whichever way, don't bottom fish today, because you try to catch on the first upswing of a reversal, not on the way down, since it can very well continue down. true, you lose some upside, but well, live chicken, not dead tiger! *elfin motto hehe* i'm with cks and hohokit. :P can i be the little emoticon sitting between the two? heheheee. |
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| 27-Jul-2007 08:30 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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market will be down today. but keep cool, people: for the long term investor, it is just another day in the part of the cycle. in fact, it presents an opportunity to accumulate (not today tho). for the scalper/momentum trader: time to lock in profits, scale back. wait. don't start bottom fishing yet. it's a war, not a single battle: you can afford some losses if your overall portfolio is gain. lock in and cut back now. most important, think rationally. really evaluate your portfolio to see if you're holding a speculative or a fundamental. cheers to all! :) |
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| 27-Jul-2007 08:23 |
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Squeeze Breakout Buys
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agree with rayphua (good to see you back :)) no need to panic. but time to cut back. lock in profits, reduce losses if any. if you have holding power and are in on some good counters since long ago (and your aim is to hold long term), continue holding. for a long term investor, this is all just part of the cycle. advise to avoid props if you're bottom fishing for this period tho. (but try not to bottom fish today! don't catch a falling knife) |
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| 26-Jul-2007 21:55 |
C&G Env Protect
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Hongbao share
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yep, bollies tightening. signs actually mixed; but direction is likely up. needs to break sustained above 0.72 for confirmed uptrend tho. be careful of macrotrend though. dow's down; might affect sentiment for entire market. plus, sgx is softening. macro trend changing means techs change for counters. keep checking yr techs to see. good luck! :) |
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| 26-Jul-2007 21:50 |
Federal Int
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Federal
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stock appears to be sold down. red hangman on candlesticks; expect tmrw slight down. longer term trend (MACD) is up tho. be careful of break below 79.5c. fyi; not vested. |
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| 26-Jul-2007 21:37 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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oh boy. dow's down. market's softening quite a bit.. |
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| 25-Jul-2007 22:43 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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dang. dow appears to be giving up its gains. Marketsclose in 5 hrs, 18 mins
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| 25-Jul-2007 22:40 |
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shplayer...regarding diet/health: sigh. used to it already lah. have never had regular meal times and sleep times anw. i like kaya roti and eggs too! and haha. sama sama: i dip the kaya bread into the eggs +soya sauce too! :P yakun is nice. dun get to go there often tho. if you like your kaya bread real crispy and thin with thick butter and kaya (the brown bread), go to this corner coffee shop at ann siang hill; the guy's called ah wee. very good. :)))) and haha, sometimes he even has stock tips. o_0 advise to just eat the bread and drink the kopi. :P yah. nonya food at malacca. either bibik neo, or that other place...i can't rem the name offhand. their buah keluak is unstuffed tho; just the raw ones; good if you like it bitter. chinchalok eggs! yumyum. oh, and the sambal udang petai too. :))))) or luak! my favourite! working up an appetite. hehe. |
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| 25-Jul-2007 22:03 |
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ahhhhh!!! giantlow!! *hugs!* so glad to see you back!  elfie missed you! welcome welcome welcome! 
lots have happened since you were gone. but glad that you've recovered. and yep, keep the bright attitude. money's not the most impt. character is. :) ok, gonna go have dinner... |
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| 25-Jul-2007 20:32 |
Trading Techniques
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Do valuations really matter?
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no. in a momentum market, valuations don't matter. because the play is not on FA-driven stocks, but on growth (like cosco), TA and momentum plays. So simple thing: will cosco keep going up? Yes. Does its book to price etc matter? right now, no. look at its busd data, large lots are buying. Look at Jade Tech. EPS loss tripled from FYE 05 to 06, to -0.17c, yet it's worth 45c on current market. There's essentially nothing fundamental sustaining it. valuations only matter when markets return to sanity. what investors need to do, is to watch for signals of the drop. There are always signs. it's whether you can be rational enough to see them or not. grossly overvaluations cannot be safely ignored, for the only reason that there is no safety in the market. it is only an illusion; even FA valuations. in any crash, not just second board, markets have always given up almost all their gains. That's nothing unusual. it's just part of the cycle: you see it in 1929, again in the 40s, then '97, 2003. like the other thread on contrarian investors: the best time to buy is when there's blood on the streets. That's for the value investor. meanwhile, the game goes on. Smart money is punting the blues now for half year results. Quite simply, there are no value plays left in s'pore. So for the value investor (like OHL), it's cut out. Alt, follow, and play techs. nothing much to wonder about. a risk/reward and personality assessment, that's all: is it too hot for you? if yes, get out. if no, play on. Just be responsible for yourself, and willing to take all losses. that's all. |
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| 25-Jul-2007 14:36 |
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hugs to you, YJ. and haha, you can't pray for money perhaps...just work harder and smarter. am sure you can. :) amid the crazy partying. :P eh? what's bunnie doing in china? i thought you said europe last time...anw, if there, just enjoy lah... cks (very well travelled yea) seems to have highlighted an interesting travel itinerary. :) ok, gonna go zzz. wk tiring; cleared probation so kena near doubled wk load plus other restrictions kicked in. sigh. |
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