Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 01-Aug-2007 22:00 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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fwah heng ah....if singaporegal is away for NDP holiday, with this current market, we'd all just 
hey, this emoticon is new...... so sweet!! ahhhh..... 
hehe. sorry, bimbo moment. anw, back to biz. most of the contras should have been cleared off today; so should hope that this is the end of it. tmrw and fri will still have forced selling for margin players tho. so hopefully that can be stemmed/is a light one; or it'll turn into a vicious cycle and drag prices even lower, as margin players 'tekan' even more margin players, who have to sell, dragging counters down, forcing more forced sells. gah. at this pt in time, considering 1014 counters down vs 110 counters up (which i'm sure are mainly the put warrants!), a holiday sounds good man. sigh. eheh. 1014 and 0110. 4D numbers, anyone? 
singaporegal! if you're at sentosa, go have a meal at The Cliff at Beaufort Sentosa. beautiful and ultra romantic place! |
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| 01-Aug-2007 18:02 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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and hm. pls note tho, follow macrotrend. if everything drops, no matter how fundamentally sound a counter is, it will follow and drop. so pls decide your risk/reward ratio accordingly. as sporeguy pointed out in anr thread tho: if you want to sell, you shd sell beginning of a drop. now somewhere within it, mgiht be a bit ptless to sell. so just hold. (on assumption you're holding onto a stock with some fundamentals) oops, gotta go. bye! |
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| 01-Aug-2007 17:58 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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hey novice and simonking, no prob sharing. i had actually bought achieva earlier at 18c a couple of weeks back, but then it got caught up in a speculative rush, so i sold it as it was running too far ahead of value (the time it chionged up to 28-29c). but fundamentally, the story is the same. NAV 12.5c, yoy profit increase is 30%. Can't recall the EPS offhand, but yep. If you look at busd data and market depth, the support for this counter is at 17c. from two weeks ago, the buy up was very strong: can't just be small timers, because the lots bought were in the 1000s. Just that now, the picture is skewed because of general bad sentiment, plus it got caught up in a speculative rush. so wait for the rush tide to clear, this counter will likely go up. (will have a lot of resistance along the way tho, as scared players get out--pls have no illusions of a straight cheong up). but either way, if you're not on contra/forced margin, can just hold. i'm still lkg to enter more. but will take it slow. this period is really too volatile. note: not an inducement to trade. pls do make own decisions. good luck to all of us tho! :) |
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| 01-Aug-2007 17:51 |
Others
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What happen if you cannot pay your contra loss?
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hey bentan, as fairygal and snoothie say, respects to you! you have my admiration; not many will dare to admit their mistakes so openly and ask for help the way you did. That shows the good side of your character. So you're definitely NOT a useless person: if you were, you'd not have dared to own up to your mistakes, isn't it? So yup! take heart! at the very least, you've sold off all your counters already (?) and avoided today's crash. that's something good already. And yup! i'm very sure you'll stand up again, so take heart. :) do take kilroy's suggestions on reading abt money management etc. i'm still very much learning myself, from all the people here and books and all. knowledge is always good. :) |
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| 01-Aug-2007 16:50 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hang on, ppl. expect sudden drop last 10 min. esp at closing bell. clearing out the margin and contras. |
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| 01-Aug-2007 16:45 |
SPC
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SPC
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kilroy, what do you mean by risk % of each stock in deciding your portfolio weightage? how do you ascertain that? for me, i allocate via risk/reward count. ie, for each potential dollar lost, what is the reasonable potential upside i can gain. i go for a counter only if the ratio is 2.5x or more. diversification, definitely, but overdiversification also dilutes profit! and erm, perhaps shd shift this to fellowship or some other thread...don't wanna annoy the spc-ers... |
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| 01-Aug-2007 16:33 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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fwah. you know it's a bad day on the markets when you look at the top gainers, and they're all put warrants! >~< nickyng must be having a field of a day, until too busy to post. haha. it's def a good lesson to learn tho, even if painful. keep calm. |
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| 01-Aug-2007 16:26 |
SPC
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SPC
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seconding jkbk...what's wrong with this pg... |
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| 01-Aug-2007 16:15 |
SPC
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SPC
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ehhh...if you're making money, what's the 'hate' doing there? :P can always choose to trade half day what. haha. momentum scalps. heehee. elfie's doing fine. current trading portfolio down abt 4%. excl locked in profits. i'm actually on margin, but my lines are liquid enough for a 20% drop in all my counters. (this little chicken had kept at 230% before this crash; so now margin % abt 180-200% with drops factored in. still ok). starting to pick up some. some stocks have bottomed out. look at market depth you'll know. some still dropping tho. so pls everyone, be careful. no more 'cheong ar!' pls....watch the data very carefully; choose on fundamentals. cheers all! don't be downheartened. it's all part of cycle. just resist panic, and realign portfolio as necessary. :) |
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| 01-Aug-2007 15:59 |
SPC
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SPC
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haha. kilroy, i had thought you were a trader. now i see not so. :) you're beginning to sound more and more like a friend of mine; he believes investments should be boring and plain. haha. i think 5.5 is possible actually. perhaps not now but sometime later this year. |
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| 01-Aug-2007 11:52 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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achieva holdings: NAV: 12.5c. profits increased 30% yoy from FYE 05 to FYE 06. for those who bought without knowing anything: it's in motor vehicles. This FYE will be likely be good. owned by 6 brokerage houses. 90 day MACD support: 13c. 2x book to price gives fair value 25c at least, without accounting for this year's results. but WAIT to buy. was ramped up last week and previous. Afternoon will be a bloodbath for most pennies, esp closing hour. So force the throw. pls go slow and keep light tho. |
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| 01-Aug-2007 11:00 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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ooh. we've got ourselves a perfect storm. dow dropped major last night; today's T+5 contra trap. The contras have to sell; but almost no one's buying: look at market depth. Queue low and force a throw. ie, squeeze the contras. there's blood on the streets. anyone buying yet? hehe. go slow and go small tho. bit by bit. esp margin players. take care, ppl! caution always better than overrisk. kilroy wrote a very good post (in the bentan thread) on risk/trade management, and the value of knowledge. fully agree with him there. need to understand concept of risk vs reward. You do not risk 10,000 for 1,000. one always must keep in mind the larger objective. cheers and good luck to all! :) |
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| 01-Aug-2007 00:36 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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ah, alcohol. my favourite topic apart from stocks. muah ha. eh, baseerahmed, tonic is a carbonated drink you add into gin and other hard liquors lah.... if they're hard liquors, then normally it's 30-40% proof. whisky and vodka and such. wines are between 12-15%. beer is a measly 3-5%. there are some hard liquors which go up to 70% proof tho. think quite a few of hte chinese wines are very high in content; not very sure of that tho. i like sake! cleaner taste than wine actually. mebbe it's the asian in me talking. haha. calorie content: haha. don't bother asking. very high. like chocolate. "Ah, chocolate! A moment on the lips, a lifetime on the hips!" :P argh, i should be asleep! dang....ok, byebye ppl! :) |
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| 01-Aug-2007 00:25 |
Others
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NATIONAL DAY RALLY
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lol. well winstontkl, while most were running into the market last week mon to wed, i was pulling out alr...live chicken! :P aug to nov will be volatile lah. dow's up now. so spore will likely be up after this period of contra trap. the sustaining factor is the earnings reports of the local companies. you can expect good ones from sembcorp, sembmar, the props, and the usual suspects. all it takes is a few misses tho. i'm expecting the misses to come from the tech companies. CSM was a miss already. then post divvie, likely to be a slump/dull period sept to oct before final pickup for year end. that's just my guess tho. and i'm perfectly willing to change it as the wind blows. hehe. watch out for macro stuff like bird flu, or oil prices sudden spike up (in which case, the SPC-ers can cheer), other major US funds die on their investors etc. these are the unknown constants which will swing the market. to be honest, i think the US subprime problem is bigger than what bernanke is admitting to. but locally, it looks to me as tho asia is decoupling from the US. of course, when the dow sneezes, asia catches a cold (as the saying goes), but i do think we're more immunised to it than before. there are a lot of local investors who've made it on the market this past year, who can more than afford to take over the place left by the foreign funds. if you track techs, a lot of counters are not falling to their retracement levels: it's a sign that ppl are buying up. current vols mon and tues have been low. that's because most investors are on the sidelines. the ones now in are mainly shortsellers and scalpers. as well as those who have to sell. if you look at market depth for a lot of counters, esp the good ones, ppl are not buying nor selling. (ie, hold). plus, if you talk abt money flow from the US, then remember that they have their pension plans. the biggest lot are due for payment in 2010 and beyond: the babyboomers. these pensions have been invested by funds. they HAVE to look for returns. Asia and russia are the only growth stories. US market is weak. Europe is ok. The end story is the same: long term for asia (not just singapore) is up. volatile, yes, because hedge funds and private investors (small BBs) skew the picture a lot. plus, all that irrational sentiment with cheong ah, huat ah! sure, all of us would love that, but there's a need to exercise caution: valuations in singapore are up. it's getting very, very tough weeding out the wheat from the chaff. if you play only sgx, you're scrapping the bottom of the barrel (talking from the viewpoint of a value investor). but long term, at least, til mid 2008, it is up. investing involves a lot of sentiment, yes. but then, the sentiment should be other people's. Esp in such a crazy market, it's all the more necessary to stay detached and rational. note above all just my opinion ah. usual caveat emptor. i'm just sharing my perception. not an inducement to trade. hehe. PS: think you've actually answered your own qn. what comes after an up? :P |
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| 01-Aug-2007 00:04 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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whee, the dow's nicely green. 13445 pts, up 86. :) ok set. just need to wait for contras/margin to be cleared up. elfie in slow collection mode. hehe. aiyah, i think, as long as one takes things in moderation, it'll be fine. after all, if you don't drink soft drinks, don't drink alcohol, don't eat fatty/oily/calorie laden stuff, don't laze around, don't do nuts, then, i don't think life is longer. it just SEEMS longer. :P anw, just for fun, checked up the chemical formula for aspartame, methanol and formaldehyde. aspartame apparently does convert to methanol in the small intestine. approx 10% by mass of it. from methanol to formaldehyde is a simple removal of one H ion, so theoretically, it is possible. shd note that a lot of our food and hair products etc contain formaldehyde tho. it's a standard preservative in low quantities. altho, haha, no wonder the rate of cancers is higher in developed nations than undeveloped ones! ok, nites all! :) |
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| 31-Jul-2007 23:06 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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fwah, what's all this talk about soft drinks....dunno. elf doesn't take soft drinks. never quite took them as a kid, and well, don't much like them now. they taste funny. can taste the acid and saccharine. >~< plus, all the bubbles. the only bubbles i like are in my bath and in my champagne. muah ha. now, drinking champagne while in the bubble bath.....
shplayer, belated thanks for the lesson on PE ratios; was wondering how ppl calculate forward earnings and how to estimate possibility of return; now i know. :) anw, for those who were wondering why market diverged today: contra T+3,4,5 trap from last wed. wld expect tmrw to be the last of the forced selling; so by friday it should be a clearer picture. weeding out the contras. ok, byebye, time to sleep! happy hunting tmrw! i see kilroy is having a good time, as is nickyng. haha. |
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| 31-Jul-2007 22:58 |
Macquarie Intl
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MIIF
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shplayer, i believe the divvie for macq this year is 8c in all. am vested in this myself; but as farmer pointed out, not for trading. it's a long term holding for divvie. |
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| 31-Jul-2007 15:24 |
Others
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NATIONAL DAY RALLY
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hi winsontkl, i agree with newmoon actually. if s'pore stocks do rally near national day, then it's just a localised feel good factor; but overriding is still the dow. yesterday closed up, but that was a rather wishy-washy up, in my opinion. i wldn't want to predict up or down, since well, just see what happens and act accordingly. too volatile and riding on too many factors. sector: haha. perhaps zooming in less on sector, more on individual stocks. esp since a lot have ran already. for 4Q of year, it's tech, marine and oil in the local market. cyjerry (if you're here): today a lot of countesr wld be down cos it's T+4, so a lot of the speculative/recent run ups will go down as ppl sell off. a better picture would be past friday. |
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| 29-Jul-2007 22:34 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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tickets to the ndp....more like permanent standby for duty since the rehearsal yesterday. niama. there's a very good spot to watch the fireworks tho: at the IR area there. gotta get through the construction area but you'll have front row 'seat' by the water to watch the fireworks. :) singapore and its obsession with records. bwah. ok, just had dinner; gonna watch some tv and veg out. nites and sweet dreams. :) |
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| 29-Jul-2007 22:04 |
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singaporegal! *hugs* well....the singapore flag is red and white. now, let's think. what else is red and white? wine. HEEHEE. anyone with me? :P |
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