Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 02-Aug-2007 14:25 |
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It seemed Fewer Contributions in this Forum...?
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hullo daffodil (pretty flower!): sorry to hear you got stuck. what counters are you holding? if you know how to read ARs (annual reports), then i suggest going to sgx website, download the last FYE AR of the company you're vested in, and read through to see if their current px is justified. if it is not, cut. If it is, can hold. cos this is going to be a cruel market where the fundamentally sound ones will hold and later go up (in accordance with their value), but speculatives will drop. so there's a need to return to value. Briefly, in the ARs, looks for: EPS, NAV, cash flow (shd be positive). see if any news to justify further profits yoy. NAV shd not be more than 2x what your current stock px is. (eg, if NAV is 10c, then the stock is worth 20c at a 2x book to price ratio.). EPS--for the PE ratio--is a bit more tricky: you need to see with the stocks in its own industry, to derive a fair estimate for the trading ratio (eg, props are btwn 8x to 30x--so take approx 15-20x as 'fair value'), then multiply the EPS by that. so if your EPS in the AR is 0.8c for instance, and the ave PE ratio in the industry is 20x, then a 'fair value' for the stock is 20 x 0.8 = 16c. ie, 0.16 is its fair trading px. additionally, if you want to take a gamble, then techs will tell you if momentum is sustainable longer term. if what you are holding are all speculatives tho, then perhaps better to cut. nevermind if it goes up after; hindsight is perfect. capital protection is more impt. anw, if this is all too confusing for now (do learn to read all the ARs and/or techs tho, its very useful), name me yr counters, i'll try to give the reading on them. pls not too many tho or i'll pengsan! :P ok back to wk; perhaps later tonight. :) |
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| 02-Aug-2007 13:53 |
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It seemed Fewer Contributions in this Forum...?
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hm nope baseerahmed; not great at all. just a regular kid trying to survive in a tough world. yea, agree with go_francis. blue black man. sigh. :( |
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| 02-Aug-2007 13:47 |
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What happen if you cannot pay your contra loss?
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kilroy, how abt a 10-15% loss (which is the std stop loss for techies)? markets very soft. >~< trust you had a good night last night with the GBP/USD pair? hehe. |
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| 02-Aug-2007 13:44 |
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NATIONAL DAY RALLY
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hullo myehub! mid 08 refers to mid 2008: ie, post beijing olympics. pls note tho that all of what i said are just my opinion; i'm not trained in finance, or economics. so i might very well be wrong. and well, if i'm wrong, i'd just say so and realign portfolio accordingly. ain't pretending to be expert or whatever. I guess at the end, the market is not about theories, or speculations, or who's right and who's wrong in 'predictions'. cos no one can ever fully predict the market. so yea. as ipunter/manikamaniko says, follow the trend. no need for pride and posturing, or arguing TA vs FA, or 'my method's the best!'. quite silly cos there's no best method. the market's the dictator and final arbitrator: any match you play will be a one-on-one: you vs the market. and that's the reality. zero sum game. so always be prepared to run. the one thing you can definitely expect tho: volatility. higher highs, lower lows. so be prepared to ride it out. sti is dropping a little too much for my liking. sigh. ok, ostrich mode time! *elf goes into hiding* cheers to all. :) |
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| 02-Aug-2007 13:31 |
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sigh. i echo tanglinboy...what happened btwn 1130 to lunch break? elfie gonna go into ostrich mode liao. no more watching markets for the next two weeks. batten down the hatches. :( |
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| 02-Aug-2007 11:17 |
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NATIONAL DAY RALLY
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hullo noobie, (hey, i like your nick! noobie noobie!!! oop yet another bimbo moment. keke)... fundamental-wise, most companies started turning around after the sars period (2003), so give abt 6 mths for recovery, means about mid 2003 the best companies started turning around. tech-wise, the actual recovery--time lag from FA since market needs to factor in the results (half year results, rem) plus recover sentiment, plus laggards--started first half of 2004. if you look at the STI ETF100 as a general guide, the buy signal was crossed in May 2004, which is right about when things started picking up. The real bull run started Jul 06 tho: from the double W bottom and the breakout. Look at the steepness of this uptrend cf to 04-06 period. it hasn't quite stopped since. and if you look at charts, for practically any counter: if you had bought in may-jul 06 (may 06 if you dared, altho the real buy signal only came in jul 06), held til now, you'd easily have doubled your holdings. That's how good the spore market is. Right now, the run up is excessively high (this mth alone), but the fundamentals are there. just gotta pick carefully; look for earnings justified. 5 years is the US market lah. Can't just quote data blindly. So for our local context, based on data, there you have it: our bull run started abt may 04, til now, that's 3 years and 2 mths. Real run is only one year old. my estimate is approx same as victorian: mid 08 can start running. expect down in 09 (scoop up time!), then up as the casinos start. but general, long term, it is up. (unless, of course, net external factors change the trend.) it's a simple thing: if not equities, where is the money going to go to? Not just US pension funds money; how about China's, how about Europe's, how about all the new millionaires here? China already has so much liquidity that they are looking to put their money out of china so that the market there doesn't rush up too fast. You're talking about a country that can support 50-100% growth in PE ratio yoy. (look at cosco as a proxy). If not asia, what else, for now? The fact remains that the time now is Asia's. Of course, gold is good too. hehe. ok long story. zzz. back to work. zzz. |
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| 02-Aug-2007 11:00 |
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sigh. daffodils, these guys are fooling around. haha. BB actually stands for big boys. ie, all your foreign fund houses, rich local investors etc, who can swing the market due to their huge purchasing power and at times, advanced notice of news. in a market situation, it's usually BBs vs retailers (ie, hay bees like us. haha). since zero sum game: when someone wins, someone has to lose. usually retailers will lose since we don't have the news, and most buy on speculation. |
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| 02-Aug-2007 09:34 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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ok, slight recovery on the way. pls take it slow tho. advise to stagger your buys, either by lots, or by dollar. better safe than sorry. sentiment is still very fragile and volatile. wld expect the pennies to recover before the blues. because the rout of the blues is due primarily to foreign institutional money flowing out (ie, big BBs); but the pennies are supported by local as well as foreign hedge funds, private investors etc (ie, small BBs). That was why the selldowns are more volatile than in the past years: the new sBBs in (private hedge funds) skew the pic a lot. never quite elaborated on this before but some idea now: your standard foreign fund house (big BB) tends to play only long, and in the blues, or in the companies where there are analyst reports generated. These funds are also diversified: ie, exposed to the US subprime crisis. (note strictly from my experience, some might have changed by now). so they might pull out of asia to support the fall in the US: entirely a money management issue, nothing to do with the fundamentals of the companies at all. Whereas small BBs like hedge funds, be they foreign or local, do not have to nor do they play 'by the rules'. ie, they can go both long and short; they can play the mids and pennies too. They tend to be less exposed to subprime situation, since they focus on one region, or market (eg, asian value plays, or SGX/Bursa plays). Esp so for the local sBBs: who account for most of the penny momentum, not foreign institutional funds. so now that the pic has cleared up a little: yesterday drop can be separated out for clarity: the blues (STI) dropped due to selling by the bBBs. But the pennies dropped even more, due to sBBs selling, panic selling by contra players, AND further shorting by both punters and sBBs alike. That's why STI drops ~5% but sesdaq drops 10%. Esp for recent Edge calls and highlighted pennies, since that brings them to the attention of retailers, which makes them more susceptible to premature rush ups and downs. so anw. from now onwards, actually from before, the parameters of the game has changed: expect higher highs and lower lows. This was why earlier last week, i had said to prep for a 20% drop in portfolio: this dow drop was expected to be 10-15%, but give an extra buffer due to sBBs and punters both selling and shorting. one very good lesson i learnt from victorian tho: cornered stocks with good fundamentals. because when a stock is cornered, assuming the major stakeholders don't sell (which they will not, IF your research has shown that the fundamentals are solid and there is profit yoy to justify the px), then recovery will likely be swift, as any drop will be due to punters and perhaps some sBBs playing; but the fact remains that fundamentals of the company are still good, and the major stakeholders hold most of it. ok, time to work! byebye! cheers and good luck! :) |
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| 02-Aug-2007 09:15 |
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Time To Bottom Fish?
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hey, kb-ing seems to work on the dow! hehe. the answer to your qn, kilroy: you can recognise a person by his/her voice. :) slight recovery today; but pls ppl, don't go chionging in at one shot. stagger your buys. |
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| 01-Aug-2007 23:19 |
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hey fruitty! *hugs* :))) em...ndp standby....basically, whenever this country has large functions, there is a team of us to make sure nothing untoward happens. ok, that's telling enough liao... howl!!!! dow, go uppppp!!!!!! kbkbkbkbkbkkbkbkbkkbkbkbk!!!! sigh. ok, this is exhausting. elfie will be good. byebye. :) |
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| 01-Aug-2007 23:15 |
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you actually bother to change your font. o_0 howl! dow! go up!!!! kbkbkbkbkkbkbkbkbkbkkbkbk!!! hm. mebbe if i whine enough, it'll go up? if you can't win by reason, go for volume. haha. argh. okok, enough crapping and irritating the forumers here. hehe. i've really GOT to go to sleep. sigh. nites mister kilroy (and sporeguy and livermore too). don't twitch too much as the currencies twitch ok? *grin* |
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| 01-Aug-2007 23:06 |
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bleep bleep. well, it's going in tandem with the dow. bleep bleep bleep. argh. perhaps the best method to adopt now is ostrich mode. haha. stick your head in the sand and dun surface til two weeks later. how come kilroy has a different font... |
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| 01-Aug-2007 23:03 |
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sigh. ok. dow looks like it's gonna close down. elfie gonna zzz already. stupid market. :( and on standby til NDP weekend over, too. :((( weh weh wehhhh... sigh. nites all. |
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| 01-Aug-2007 22:58 |
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STI
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hey sporeguy (mushroom! hehe), yep, get your pt. and yep, if vol goes highest and on way down, sti is likely down. macd does show sti peaking alr tho...sigh. respective busd data for the counters: from poems. or any trading platform if you have it? dow will drop. it's only a matter of time. my qn is asia. have we delinked enough? the massive resources are not just from the US anymore. it's china, it's russia, it's european money. china just released funds for outside investment, remember that. |
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| 01-Aug-2007 22:45 |
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hi sporeguy, had wanted to ask: you estimated the support for sti at 3,400. would it be possible to give the support level below that? |
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| 01-Aug-2007 22:43 |
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hehe paiseh, am blur with the median volume thing... anw, what's clear is that this selling is actually overdone. but yea, pls, no rushing in to buy. livermore's strat is a good one for this period. stagger your buys. rather small profits than lose big. just my opinion tho! |
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| 01-Aug-2007 22:38 |
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lol. hahahhaa kilroy, heart attacks both morning and night, eh? ;) sporeguy, what i meant was, what do you mean when you say that if the vol of 6 mil lots repeat, sti will undergo a correction? what's the significance of median volume anyway? shows how heated the market is? alt a picture of who's in, which i guess can be deduced from the respective busd data? |
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| 01-Aug-2007 22:32 |
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hullo giantlow! SMB: relax lah. i'm still vested in it too. it dropped abt 10%, but look at sesdaq, also dropped 10%. so it's just in line. nothing out of the ordinary. the drop this time was more furious than expected tho; primarily because The Edge published an article calling a TP of 54c on it. so with the bull run last week (til wed), a lot of contra players had rushed into the counter, ramping it up to 51c at its highest. So this drop is actually expected, due to the contra T+5 trap. It was a premature rush, hence the retracement. if you look at busd data tho, there's very strong support at 41-42c. In FA terms: SMB's NAV is approx 23c, excl this year's results. They've recently disposed Oculus shares for a cash profit of abt 8mil, which is stated 'to be distributed to shareholders'. The profit yoy this time (FYE is 14 aug) is expected to be abt 38%. div distribution estimating 70% of cash given out, is 1.9c this time around. note smb owns edmi and yanlord as well, while its own switchgear biz is doing well. Doing a count of shareholders, the top 20 shareholders hold about 70% of SMB. So it's cornered. In my opinion, recent movement is not from these stakeholders, but from the small timers who rushed in due to the general bull sentiment and the edge's article. Weed out this white noise. You'll notice that the moment SMB hits 41-42c, sudden large lots appear to buy. Appears to me as tho stakeholders are taking the chance to increase their holdings, not decrease. So in terms of FA or TA, it's simple: hold. regret not locking in some at 47-49.5c tho. i thought from previous data, it doesn't swing below a 3c range, which didn't make sense for trading, esp since i can't watch all the time since at work. but sigh. who's to know. my bad; should have counted the contra volumes to estimate market depth and sell price to. erk. |
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| 01-Aug-2007 22:05 |
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and the dow begins its zigzag.... DJIA13,225.15 +13.16 0.10% NASDAQ2,542.55 -3.72 0.15% |
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| 01-Aug-2007 22:02 |
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hi sporeguy, could you pls explain what you mean? how about that 9mil vol day last wed? |
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