x 1

x 0

STI had broke above last Fri's high n formed a higher high n higher low.

iPunter ( Date: 11-Aug-2009 12:56) Posted:

Sure can survive in the market... hehehe...

Smiley

x 0

Saw my post in "DOW" thread:

Don't Get in Front of a Charging Bull

If DOW is bullish, STI will follow suit, now probably consolidating or completed correcting the overbot condition.

ragmop15 ( Date: 11-Aug-2009 12:21) Posted:

Sorry here is a clearer image.

ragmop15 ( Date: 11-Aug-2009 12:17) Posted:

Hi Richtan, here is another resistance I am watching. Looks like a strong resistance line so I feel bearish until it goes above 50% fibo.

x 0

Trade Summary shows heavy buying up:

SGX

Advanced Search

5GJ (AusGroup)

WEIGHTED AVG PRICE : 0.5826	LAST DONE PRICE : 0.590
SPREAD/PRICE RATIO : 0.0085	AVG TRADE SIZE : 45.375

< />

Last	Trades	Vol	BuyVol	Mid	SellVol
0.575	21	388	388	0	0
0.580	73	2,863	1,156	0	1,707
0.585	39	3,377	211	0	3,166
0.590	19	269	0	0	269
TOTAL	152	6,897	1,755	0	5,142

x 0

richtan
Elite

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m / Posted: 06-Aug-2009 14:50 4Go to Message

x 1

x 0

The below post is aredi a harbinger of run-up for Ausgroup", yet "bo liow" talk rubbish without facts gathering.

richtan ( Date: 06-Aug-2009 10:32) Posted:

This should good news for Ausgroup:

Asian Stocks Advance on NTT Unit Profits, Higher Metal Prices

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By Shani Raja

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, lifting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index for the first time in three days, as Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. said first-quarter earnings at its fixed-line units grew and metal prices advanced.

NTT, Japan’s biggest phone operator, rose 2.3 percent in Tokyo. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, gained 2.1 percent in Sydney. Alumina Ltd. surged 12 percent after reporting a smaller-than-expected underlying first-half loss. Lenovo Group Ltd., China’s biggest personal-computer maker, may be active in Hong Kong also on better-than-estimated results.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 112.49 as of 10:44 a.m. in Tokyo, following a 1 percent drop in the past two days. The gauge has climbed 59 percent from a five-year low on March 9 on speculation the global economy is recovering.

“The market is ostensibly in a bit of a sweet spot,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage $1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “We’ve had huge amounts of balance sheet repair and the economic data’s been stronger than expected at the margin. The momentum in economic fundamentals is improving in terms of global growth.”

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 0.6 percent, while South Korea’s Kospi Index gained 0.6 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 1.4 percent as a report from the statistics bureau showed employers unexpectedly added workers.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.2 percent today. The gauge dropped 0.3 percent yesterday after data from ADP Employer Services showed American businesses cut 371,000 workers from pay rolls last month, more than the average estimate of 350,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

NTT Unit Earnings

The U.S.-based Institute for Supply Management said its index of non-manufacturing businesses fell to 46.4 last month from June, while economists had estimated the gauge would rise. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

NTT climbed 2.3 percent to 4,060 yen. The company said yesterday operating profits at its fixed-line units NTT East Corp. and NTT West Corp. grew at least 76 percent in the three months to June 30. The results of these subsidiaries tend to influence NTT’s share price, Hitoshi Hayakawa, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, wrote in a report yesterday.

BHP gained 2.1 percent to A$38.94 after a gauge of six metals in London climbed 3.3 percent yesterday to a level not seen since Sept. 30. Aluminum prices jumped 4 percent, while copper added 2.5 percent.

Alumina, partner in the world’s biggest producer of the material used to make aluminum, rose 12 percent to A$1.83. The company today reported an underlying loss of A$15 million ($12.6 million) in the six months ended June 30, beating the A$22 million median estimate of three analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

‘Worst is Over’

“It appears that the worst is over,” said Ben Potter, an analyst at IG Markets in Melbourne. “The headline numbers were certainly stronger than expected and obviously we’ve got a 4 percent rise in the aluminum price overnight helping the stock as well.”

Thirty-four percent of the 369 companies in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index that have reported quarterly results so far have beaten analysts’ profit estimates, while 18 percent have missed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Lenovo reported today a net loss of $16 million for the first quarter ended June 30. The company was expected to post a $54 million loss, according to the median of five analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

To contact the reporter for this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.

x 0

August 10. 2009

New Heights for the Markets

After Friday's job report was released, the market seemed to exhale. Traders breathe a sigh of relief, perhaps. Well, I'm not sure about the bears...they may have been hyperventilating! A close for the SPX over 1000, the Nasdaq over 2000 and the Dow over 9400....all new weekly highs for the year. The money is flowing into stocks now and with bonds getting tripped that money is now directed toward equities. It may be a bumpy ride, though. Some sectors have gone parabolic...witness the financials, homebuilders, casinos and retail. And while most are complaining about being overbought, no correction yet...the one thing I'm not hearing about is the broadness of this rally. Many stocks have broken over their recent May highs and are now trading at highs for the year. Oh sure, we've seen the little speculative names rise from the ashes...that's typical froth and speculation in a bull trend. It sometimes is a sign of marking the end of such a trend, but is not always the case.

SPX Daily Chart
dtw081009spxa

Be Careful Who You Listen To

Endless chatter and cautions, warnings and the like. This is coming from the biased media (don't get me started!) and analysts. Do they have your back? Hardly so, when the outlets are trying to secure ad dollars and the 'experts' are talking their book. Is there a more devious scheme? What is really important is what Mr. Market has to say at all times. How do we do this? By watching the indicators, moving averages, price and volume charts do we really get an understanding of where/when the market is going and perhaps how far. Why is timing so critical? We're option traders, and time is of the essence! We work in smaller timeframes in order to manage risk and time decay and to be in tune with trading trends. The media, analysts, fund managers out there who give us sage advice? The can be wrong for awhile before they get it right...again, stock traders or even talking their book. We cannot be wrong for awhile or we'll lose big-time.

Indicators Tell The Story

Is this a rational market? All depends on your perspective, I guess. John Maynard Keynes once said markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Definitely so for traders leaning the wrong way now. Maybe all the bears have been blown outta the water, perhaps there is a new contingent of bears waiting in the wings to pounce on this market. Whatever the case, it pays little to fight the trend, one that is as strong as we've seen in nearly 30 years, perhaps longer. While the market may seem tired, in need of rest....I make the point: WHO ARE WE TO TELL IT WHAT IT NEEDS? We may get the correction, but I guarantee you most won't nail it right on the timing. The market will tell us when it's ready, and we'll be watching the indicators. For now, the trend is up, volatility is down, money flows are strong and equities are higher. Until that changes, well...

Bob Lang,
BigTrends.com
1-800-244-8736

richtan ( Date: 11-Aug-2009 11:36) Posted:

User Rating: / 2
PoorBest August 10. 2009

New Heights for the Markets

After Friday's job report was released, the market seemed to exhale. Traders breathe a sigh of relief, perhaps. Well, I'm not sure about the bears...they may have been hyperventilating! A close for the SPX over 1000, the Nasdaq over 2000 and the Dow over 9400....all new weekly highs for the year. The money is flowing into stocks now and with bonds getting tripped that money is now directed toward equities. It may be a bumpy ride, though. Some sectors have gone parabolic...witness the financials, homebuilders, casinos and retail. And while most are complaining about being overbought, no correction yet...the one thing I'm not hearing about is the broadness of this rally. Many stocks have broken over their recent May highs and are now trading at highs for the year. Oh sure, we've seen the little speculative names rise from the ashes...that's typical froth and speculation in a bull trend. It sometimes is a sign of marking the end of such a trend, but is not always the case.

SPX Daily Chart
dtw081009spxa
Be Careful Who You Listen To

Endless chatter and cautions, warnings and the like. This is coming from the biased media (don't get me started!) and analysts. Do they have your back? Hardly so, when the outlets are trying to secure ad dollars and the 'experts' are talking their book. Is there a more devious scheme? What is really important is what Mr. Market has to say at all times. How do we do this? By watching the indicators, moving averages, price and volume charts do we really get an understanding of where/when the market is going and perhaps how far. Why is timing so critical? We're option traders, and time is of the essence! We work in smaller timeframes in order to manage risk and time decay and to be in tune with trading trends. The media, analysts, fund managers out there who give us sage advice? The can be wrong for awhile before they get it right...again, stock traders or even talking their book. We cannot be wrong for awhile or we'll lose big-time.

Indicators Tell The Story

Is this a rational market? All depends on your perspective, I guess. John Maynard Keynes once said markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Definitely so for traders leaning the wrong way now. Maybe all the bears have been blown outta the water, perhaps there is a new contingent of bears waiting in the wings to pounce on this market. Whatever the case, it pays little to fight the trend, one that is as strong as we've seen in nearly 30 years, perhaps longer. While the market may seem tired, in need of rest....I make the point: WHO ARE WE TO TELL IT WHAT IT NEEDS? We may get the correction, but I guarantee you most won't nail it right on the timing. The market will tell us when it's ready, and we'll be watching the indicators. For now, the trend is up, volatility is down, money flows are strong and equities are higher. Until that changes, well...

Bob Lang,
BigTrends.com
1-800-244-8736

Alemak, very sick of this cut n paste always gets jumbled up, another retry:

Don't Get in Front of a Charging Bull

Written by Bob Lang

Written on Monday, 10 August 2009 09:49

x 0

richtan Elite	Posted: 05-Aug-2009 17:27 Contact richtan * Quote this Post!
x 0 x 0 * Alert Admin	Saw from OCBC Securities daily 'Mkt Pulse" calender, MIdas report on 14/8, ie, next Fri

richtan ( Date: 11-Aug-2009 11:03) Posted:

This is good news for Midas n in fact foreseen and known eversince the China's domestic stimulus spending mostly on infrastruture.

pasttime ( Date: 11-Aug-2009 10:12) Posted:

according to news reported on shanghai securities news:

铁道部：未来3年铁路投资每年至少7000亿

x 0

China’s Industrial Output Growth Accelerates on Record Loans

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By Bloomberg News

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s industrial output growth accelerated on record loans and stimulus spending.

Industrial production climbed 10.8 percent in July from a year earlier after a 10.7 percent advance in June. Urban fixed- asset investment for the seven months to July 31 rose 32.9 percent. Consumer prices fell 1.8 percent last month. The statistics bureau released the figures at a briefing today in Beijing.

China’s economy will grow 9.4 percent this year, topping the government’s 8 percent target, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said yesterday. Policy makers are wrestling with how to avert property and stock bubbles and bad loans after first-half lending tripled to $1.1 trillion as banks backed the government’s stimulus package.

“A lot of officials fear a significant slowdown if they withdraw stimulus too early,” said Ma Jun, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong. The government will “fine tune” monetary policy in the short term by selling central bank bills to mop up excess liquidity, and guiding loan growth, Ma said.

Interest-rate increases and lending quotas are not likely until there are “more serious signals of inflation and overheating,” he added.

The gain in industrial output was less than the 11.5 percent median estimate of 23 economists.

Retail Sales

The rise in urban fixed-asset investment compared with a 33.6 percent gain through June and a 34 percent median estimate. Retail sales rose 15.2 percent in July, more than the 15 percent expansion in June.

Producer prices dropped a record 8.2 percent, compared with a 7.8 percent fall in the previous month.

The credit boom and a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package drove an acceleration to 7.9 percent economic growth in the second quarter from a year earlier and helped General Motors Co. to report a 78 percent increase in vehicle sales in China in July.

Infrastructure spending also aids companies including BBMG Corp., Beijing’s biggest cement supplier, which saw its shares surge 56 percent on its first day of trading in Hong Kong on July 29 on expectations China’s stimulus will spur asset investments and housing demand.

The Shanghai Composite Index has rallied almost 80 percent in 2009 and real-estate prices have rebounded, fueling concern that loans meant for infrastructure projects are being used for speculation. The measure fell by the most in eight months on July 29 amid concern that the central bank would rein in liquidity.

The central bank said Aug. 5 that it will use “dynamic fine-tuning” and guide “appropriate” lending growth.

China will maintain its current macroeconomic policy stance aimed at bolstering domestic spending as the nation continues to face difficulties including an export slump and industrial overcapacity, Premier Wen Jiabao said Aug. 9.

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at khamlin@bloomberg.net; Last Updated: August 10, 2009 22:00 EDT

x 0

This is good news for Midas n in fact foreseen and known eversince the China's domestic stimulus spending mostly on infrastruture.

pasttime ( Date: 11-Aug-2009 10:12) Posted:

according to news reported on shanghai securities news:

铁道部：未来3年铁路投资每年至少7000亿

x 0

Singapore’s Economy Expanded More Than Expected Last Quarter

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By Shamim Adam

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s economy expanded more than initially estimated last quarter as manufacturing and services improved, reinforcing the nation’s emergence from its worst recession since independence 44 years ago.

Singapore’s gross domestic product gained an annualized 20.7 percent last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking a revised 12.2 percent between January and March, the trade ministry said in a statement today. Second-quarter growth was more than a July 14 estimate of a 20.4 percent expansion, and compares with the median forecast for a 19.2 percent gain in a Bloomberg survey.

Governments worldwide have pledged about $2 trillion in stimulus to counter the worst global slowdown since the Great Depression, helping stabilize sales by Asian companies including Nissan Motor Co. and Frasers Centrepoint Ltd. Singapore’s economy is “now in a stronger position,” Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said last week.

“We are expecting a better second half for Singapore,” said Alvin Liew, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore. “The global outlook is improving and there is some return in demand.”

Asian nations from China to Malaysia have reported smaller declines in exports as the slump in demand eases. China’s economy grew 7.9 percent last quarter from a year earlier, while South Korea’s expanded at the fastest pace in almost six years from the previous three months. Samsung Electronics Co., Hyundai Motor Co. and LG Electronics Inc. are among exporters that reported increased profits last quarter.

Singapore’s $182 billion economy contracted a revised 3.5 percent last quarter from a year earlier. That compares with the 4 percent decline predicted by economists in a Bloomberg News survey and was better than the July estimate.

‘Less Bad’

The economy is recovering after contracting 6.5 percent in the first half of 2009 from a year earlier, a decline that was “less bad than we feared,” Lee said Aug. 8.

Singapore raised its 2009 economic forecast on July 14, after the manufacturing industry posted its best performance in five quarters in the three months to June. The government expects the economy to shrink between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, compared with a contraction of as much as 9 percent predicted earlier.

It is still “too early to celebrate,” Lee said last week. “The outlook remains clouded. The advanced economies are not expected to bounce back soon.”

Manufacturing, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, fell a revised 2.4 percent from a year earlier, after sliding a revised 24.1 percent in the three months ended March.

Exports Slump

The government said last month the recent improvement in drugs and electronics output may falter, preventing a quick recovery. Exports have dropped for 14 consecutive months, while industrial production fell for the first time in three months in June.

“Our exports remain much lower than last year, and companies like Singapore Airlines Ltd. are still facing very tough conditions,” Lee said.

Singapore Air, the world’s second-biggest carrier by market value, may consider further capacity cuts amid a decline in demand, Chief Executive Officer Chew Choon Seng said July 31. Visitor arrivals to the island have slumped as the global slowdown curbs business and holiday travel.

Seagate Technology, the world’s largest maker of hard-disk drives, will close one of its factories in Singapore by the end of 2010, affecting as many as 2,000 employees, the company said Aug. 4. Singapore’s economy lost 18,600 jobs in the first half.

‘On Guard’

“We might see another wave of retrenchments later in the year,” Lee said. “We must stay on guard for more challenges to come.”

The island’s services industry declined a revised 4.8 percent last quarter, after shrinking 5.1 percent in the first three months of the year. The construction industry gained a revised 18.6 percent from a year earlier as real-estate developers rushed to complete hotels and office towers.

Genting Bhd., Asia’s biggest publicly traded casino operator, may open its S$6.6 billion resort in Singapore before the end of 2009, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. said Aug. 4 after a recent visit to the site. Las Vegas Sands Corp. is targeting to open its casino-resort on the island by February.

“As the integrated resorts open, the prospects for the services industry will be much better,” Standard Chartered’s Liew said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Kuala Lumpur at sadam2@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 10, 2009 20:00 EDT

x 0

Thanks for posting your chart analysis for sharing.

Looking at the chart, it may or may not pullback to 2420 (previous resistance and lower up-sloping channel suuport on daily chart)

or 2250 (21W ma and centerline of bollinger band).

ragmop15 ( Date: 11-Aug-2009 00:23) Posted:

Thanks for your opinion. I am not a trader so I just check the markets from time to time. Sorry i feel bearish right now because of overbought conditions and don't want to go long yet. I would rather go long (3 months) in put warrants only for a small amount. Im waiting for the 50% (arnd 2686) fibo level to be convincingly broken and then I can be bullish again. Goodluck.

x 0

Hi mkttalk,

To make the link clickable, hit "Enter" at the end of the url:

http://www.rmao.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=209&start=290

mkttalk ( Date: 11-Aug-2009 09:01) Posted:

just sharing the STI charts - http://www.rmao.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=209&start=290

x 0

Hi fartist,

Many thanks for your compliments.

If I m not wrong, in fact, last Fri's "fire-sale" was also one of the best golden opportunity to scoop up a good bargain.

I scooped up (hope it is a fabulous bargain) at 83.5 as much as I could, but of course. I will not hesistate to exit if I m proven wrong n reversal sign appears.

Dyodd n BOSAYOR.

fartist ( Date: 10-Aug-2009 23:38) Posted:

Fantastic chart richtan!

I've learnt alot from all the charts you've posted and that i thank you.

In my own opinion for this counter midas, i think the best entry point would actually be when it closes on the ema itself.

As we can see from past attempts it always bounce off once it touches it :)

Well nonetheless dyodd! cheers all!

x 0

Tats for sure, without the slightest doubts, given the streams of contracts n more to come with China's stimulus infrastrucutre spending.

starlene ( Date: 10-Aug-2009 23:36) Posted:

Latest Edge Mag..claims got potential for MIDAS....wow previous high was $1.92

x 0

Hi ragmop15,

Looking at the weekly chart, last week's candle was a reversal candle to the previous week, but on lower vol than the previous week.

As per my daily chart commentary, it may or may not pullback to the lower channel support line.

wat about, u share with us your views to exchange pointers, hope we can also learn from u

ragmop15 ( Date: 10-Aug-2009 23:40) Posted:

Hi Richtan, what do you see in the weekly charts for STI?

richtan ( Date: 10-Aug-2009 23:15) Posted:

Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

x 1

x 0

Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

x 0

Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

x 1

Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

x 0

Below is my daily chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

x 0

Below is my daily chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

x 0

Japan’s Machinery Orders Rebound as Recession Eases (Update2)

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By Jason Clenfield and Keiko Ujikane

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders rose for the first time in four months in June and the current-account surplus widened, the latest signs that the nation’s worst postwar recession is easing.

Orders climbed 9.7 percent from May, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo, more than the 2.6 percent expected by economists. The surplus more than doubled from a year earlier to 1.15 trillion yen ($11.8 billion), expanding for the first time since February 2008 as exports improved.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced, extending its rally in the past month to 13 percent as the global recession abated and cost cuts helped earnings at companies from Honda Motor Co. to Sony Corp. exceed analysts’ expectations. Even so, a separate report showed corporate bankruptcies increased in July, signaling unemployment may soon rise to a postwar high.

“We shouldn’t be too optimistic about capital spending yet,” said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “Companies are still burdened with excess labor and capacity and the outlook for the economy is uncertain.”

The Nikkei rose 1.1 percent, its highest close since Oct. 3. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose 2.5 basis points to a seven-week high of 1.455 percent. The yen traded at 97.25 per dollar at 3:26 p.m. in Tokyo from 97.39 before the machinery report.

Election This Month

Prime Minister Taro Aso is struggling to steer the economy toward a recovery as his ruling Liberal Democratic Party trails the opposition Democratic Party of Japan in polls ahead of an Aug. 30 election. A separate report today showed sentiment at merchants rose to a 22-month high, bolstered by the stock- market gains and Aso’s 25 trillion yen in stimulus spending.

Machine orders, an indicator of capital investment in the next three to six months, will fall 8.6 percent in the current quarter, the government said. June’s gain was mostly due to a purchase of equipment used to generate nuclear power. Without that, orders would have risen about 2 percent or 3 percent, said Shigeru Sugihara, head of statistics at the Cabinet Office.

Today’s figures add to signs the global economy is recovering from the worst recession since the Great Depression. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped for the first time in 15 months in July, prompting Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman to say yesterday that the economy “may be in the beginning of an upturn.” Analysts expect data next week will show the European economy shrank at a slower pace last quarter.

Global Stimulus

More than $2 trillion in spending by governments worldwide has stabilized global demand, helping Japanese manufacturers such as Kubota Corp., which is selling more farming equipment in China. Japan’s factory production rose 8.3 percent last quarter, rebounding from a record 22.1 percent plunge in the previous period.

The current-account surplus rose 144 percent in June from a year ago, the Finance Ministry said. Exports fell 37 percent, less than the 42.2 percent in May. Imports slid 43.8 percent.

The world’s second-largest economy probably grew for the first time in a year last quarter, expanding at an annualized 3.8 percent pace after a record 14.2 percent contraction in the first quarter, according to the median estimate of 20 analysts.

Companies have raised earnings predictions and beaten analysts’ expectations over the past month. Some 15 percent of firms listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange raised first-half earnings estimates since June, according to Tokyo-based Shinko Research, while 10 percent cut projections.

Honda, Sony

Honda Motor, Japan’s second-largest carmaker, last month reported net income of 7.5 billion yen in the quarter ended June 30, compared with a 40 billion yen loss forecast by analysts. Sony posted a net loss of 37.1 billion yen, half the 80 billion yen shortfall analysts predicted.

“The worst is definitely over in terms of earnings, but the incentive to invest is very limited in a world in which production levels are so low,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo.

Toyota Motor Corp. last week narrowed its loss forecast for the current business year, citing government incentives introduced in Japan, the U.S. and Europe to encourage car- buying. The company still estimates it will sell 3 million fewer cars than it has the capacity to build. The automaker plans to cut capital spending 36 percent this year.

Smaller firms are struggling to get access to cash that would keep them in business. Corporate bankruptcies climbed 1.02 percent in July from a year earlier to 1,386 cases, Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd. said in Tokyo today.

“Financial conditions aren’t stable yet on the whole,” said Masayuki Kichikawa, chief Japan economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in Tokyo. “Corporate funding is improving among large companies, but not yet at small businesses.”

Kichikawa said the increase in business failures puts pressure on the unemployment rate, which climbed to a six-year high of 5.4 percent in June, close to a record 5.5 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net; Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at kujikane@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 10, 2009 02:38 EDT