Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 12-Aug-2007 12:51 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hi giantlow: hm...perhaps i should have phrased it better--manikamaniko said it rightly, that there are only buyers and sellers. so what i meant is that, right now in the market, there are only short term (read: contra period/slightly longer) buyers and sellers. volume has drastically thinnned, since most of the weaker players have been weeded out with the falls from the previous three weeks. The longer term players would have cut, or are holding on. Perhaps some are slowly adding on, but it's certainly not massive bulk buying. ie, rogue was right abt the channel-ranging. You're getting ppl who are buying and selling within a 2c difference to make some 'coffee money'. scotty, it depends on what counters you are holding, and if you are able to take a 10% fall, and still buy in to average out after that? At this pt in time, it's mathematical. the trend, in spite of the 100 pt swings (in both dow and sti) is clearly downward for now. So it might be best to count the support/resistance of individual counters, and see if it is viable to hold? cos for some counters, there is very strong buying support, and selling is thinning out, but for others, it's very strong selling pressure: not over yet. We're beginning to see the division of wheat from chaff already. for the blues, i believe a lot of them have instituted share buybacks. SCI and sembmar looks supported at 5.05 and 5.10 respectively. but of course, this is only for now. next week the US releases its consumer sentiment index on thurs. that's expected to go down. but if it goes down by more than expected, you can expect another drop on fri. Europe doesn't look to be holding up despite the Central Bank's injection of funds. my only qn is this: everyone seems to be expecting a year end rally. but is this overconfidence on the part of the BBs, since they've made a lot even with this downturn? what if it doesn't come? ie, macro trends override everything else. |
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| 10-Aug-2007 21:41 |
Straits Times Index
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STI vs DOW
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haha, unfortunately, pinnacle, it only works the downward way. upwards is equal ratio. anw, glad to be proven wrong today. but watch for monday. cos the trend is clearly downward. monday's T+5, if dow drops major tonight, it's bloodbath time on mon. good luck, all. |
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| 10-Aug-2007 11:08 |
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STI vs DOW
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eh nickyng, you're skewing the page view leh.... anyhow, sporeguy: perhaps a clearer pic is to use the long term 1 mth view, and count via % drop and ratio? it's not that the sti is more bearish than the dow. it's proportional via mathematics: i've previously did the count the way you did, and what i found was that for every 1% that dow drops, sti drops 3% correspondingly. So for the mth's view, dow dropped ~2.78% from 9 jul to yest. => sti will likely drop x3, ie, 8.34% by today. So the drop is 8.34% of 3626.72, ie, 302 pts. A lot of shortists (nickyng can testify hehe), so give 10% more, since that's approx what they swing it by. ie, 10% of 302. so the drop today shd take us to abt 3294.05. note to all: just theoretical mathematics here. pls don't panic/treat it as a buy/sell call. |
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| 10-Aug-2007 10:25 |
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agree with manikamaniko: follow the trend. see what's happening. too many shortists and contra players in the market. will be a very rough ride up. true fundamental players have all but outed of the market; else they're holding on to what they bought more than a year ago (ie, still on quite a bit of profit). if you're not vested, now's not the time to enter. C wave in force. the B wave i calculated for sti was to max high of ~3465 (lks like wed's close then). Then fall is to 3096. calculate your funds and see if you can take the 10% fall and still buy in. if not, it's capital/profit preservation time. tech players by right shd be out of market; it's momentum and shortists at work now (wing tai is perfect for major intraday swings). FA ppl, don't havta rush to buy yet. at least another 188 pt fall possible. good luck all, keep your sanity. perhaps best to go into hibernation for the rest of this mth. well, giantlow/cks, looks like this time, my puts will be in the 20% that are, unfortunately, profitable. :( |
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| 08-Aug-2007 23:42 |
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eh yea snoothie, am at the pt where i think it's better to keep light scalping than to hold long term. and sigh. yes manikam, despite today's rise and the crazy dow going above 13,500, i still think the correction has only begun. :( concur with ya abt the composite pic. esp since a lot of counters--and i mean the blues--actually cut below their 90day MACD before going up today. what i'm worried abt is that the fall is very steep. march 07 prices. >~< plus, contra trap is still in place. T+5 is monday. remains to be seen. of course, i hope it'd go up, i'm vested after all. but sigh. :(((( wonder if i can kb my stocks up. hmph. k gonna go zzz...nites ppl. |
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| 08-Aug-2007 23:24 |
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hm well...guess gotta do some analysis. or else how to know whether to buy or sell? haha. sigh. do you really believe the bear trend is established? *wail* simonking: lottvis AR: issued a full year profit warning on May 8th already. impt figures to note (all in HK dollars, '000 behind): loss for the year '07--- 15,416, compared to gain of 207,000 previous year. net current assets have decreased by abt 20%--from 259k to 54k. good thing is that they're debt free tho. cashflow seriously impaired. from 137k previous year to only 15k for '07. 101mil warrants out on the market, with exercise px of $0.15 per share. (not good; will dilute the float by a lot). EPS from 47.2c to a -3.15c this year. >~< 441mil shares on market. a relatively small float. considering its price, means very easilly manipulated. Evidence: if you track the vol traded from 16th may to 26th jun (rangebound before the short spike), there's approx 983mil shares traded. that's more than twice the total float of lottvis. then again from peak to sell down (27th to ant 17jul), ~450 mil traded: again, the entire float of lottvis changed hands. Very clear signs of BB churning and manipulation. going by vol count, the shorting still has at least 200 mil shares to go before it'll subside its downtrend. they've shorted it from 5 to 18th jul, then brief respite, and again from 23jul to 7 aug. NAV is 94.4 HK cents. approx S$0.18. so 2x book to price fair value shd be 0.36. am not quite sure how come their NAV is so high, when they're reporting losses, higher distribution income, higher costs etc tho....doesn't quite tally with the overall...altho i might be missing something here. eek. they lost HK$100mil investing. eek. k. that's abt it. from the AR and combined with tech. pls don't shoot the messenger ah. caveat emptor. not vested in the co and not a shortist either. haha. good luck! :) |
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| 08-Aug-2007 22:53 |
SPC
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SPC
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gah! the trouble with boys....leave them alone, and they end up squabbling! bad boys! 
haha. :P cks, relax....i don't believe kilroy's 'shouting for it to go down'. he's just saying what the charts say. which honestly, does indicate downtrend. the one green candlestick today shdn't be taken prematurely as a reversal, as that'd be overstepping one's techs. but may i note here that due to the general MACRO TREND, everything is exhibiting the same pattern lah. red, red, red, one solo green. any indicator you look at. almost all the same. from pennies, to blues. so perhaps now of all times is the time to return to fundamentals: what a fund mgmr friend (whom i've been learning FA from) taught me: what do you think the company is worth, based on facts? ie, look at its NAV, look at its dividends, cash flow, PE ratio, profitability, forward ROE, net gearing. If all these figures tell you it's going well, then, that's your answer. meanwhile, gotta ignore all the short term noise in the market. the FA strategy is to buy on dip. so the rest of it, really, is just white noise. in any case, major forces at work now. Your support for SPC is the May and March 07 prices. so even factoring the dividend, that's 4.9 fair value. quite a steep fall. so please do be careful. peace, all. ...if you continue arguing, elfie gonna smack you! :P |
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| 08-Aug-2007 22:41 |
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haha. ok, re analysts: point taken, manikam (can i just call you that? i don't want my money to go! :P). but yea, agree with CWQuah, we shd make the effort as responsible investors to find out more abt the stocks we're holding. for me, i go back to the direct source for FA stuff: the AR itself. can't quite decide between being a trader or an FA holder tho! takes all my instincts not to run but to buy on dip instead. >~< need to meld the two...select on FA, entry/exit on TA. but FA to decide holding period? decisions decisions.... choohian! *hugs* yep, don't worry abt the warrants. like i said, they're just my insurance. ie, probably abt 2% of the entire sum i have in the market. dun intend to buy more either. :) and floppy! nice to see a new person here. sometimes i think all the 'masters', 'elite' etc title scare off ppl from posting in the fellowship... simonking: checking out lottvis now...hang on while i read its AR...but from techs: sold down from 16th may (61.5) to 26th june (58.5), but price remained range bound: yr biggest cue to run actually, since it means building up momentum for downward. staged a brief upward breakout 26th jun to 3rd jul (67c)--likely due to general market--but thereaft down. 1st confirmed break to downtrend on 1st aug (45.5c): broke lower bollie then. long term has actually been on downtrend since abt 25may, entered a steep downtrend from 1st aug. looks set to continue when it opens trading tho: MACD lag hasn't finished downtrend yet. |
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| 08-Aug-2007 17:29 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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yup, and may i give credit where it is due: shplayer was the one who highlighted this counter to me, actually, on FA basis (since i look first by techs). the techs lked interesting then, which was why i entered. impt to stress here that we made our buy decisions independently tho, and are not advocating anyone else to just jump in ah... stock does look supported at the 16.5c level tho. a break below that is 15c next. with today's action, sellers are taking themselves off the queue. but pls do be careful in this period. there are 2000 lots waiting to dispose. will have resistance at 19 and 19.5c. 1st chance of recovery is post 20c. you'll likely see sellers disappear then as ppl hope for more. |
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| 08-Aug-2007 17:22 |
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hey all, thanks for the advice regarding warrants. it's ok, i'm only buying a small percentage as a hedge against the market going down. am prepared to lose the entire sum and in fact, wld be happy to, since it means my stocks are up! haha. have a good hols all! agree with rogue trader actually. think this is yet another trap. hedge funds are playing dow and global markets. so either follow them and scalp each time, or adopt the FA method of buying on each dip and holding through the panic. long term (ie, mid 08) is up after all. btw, is it only me, or is anyone else pissed at all the analysts who kept calling bull market, and then reversed as market reversed, and said they had been calling bear, and that the signs have been there all the while? *roll eyes* i mean, surely there must be a conflict of interest when brokerage houses and banks issue buy/sell recommendations, and they themselves are traders. caveat emptor in full highlight here man. |
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| 07-Aug-2007 23:34 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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*&@^&*! company didn't declare dividends! :((( anyhow, figures for achieva, as per their half year report (get full report off SGX website): all figures with '000 behind. as chipchip said, profit up 65% from 1610 to 2659. note improvement in cashflow: 34,000 from 30,000 previously. loans have decreased. co has managed to pay off all convertible bonds on 30/3/07. co is expanding in asia (manufacturing plants, good), esp china. float of stock: 502mil. EPS 0.49 cf 0.33 previously (an increase of 48%). NAV close to what i said earlier: 13.39 cf to 12.79. =>so a fair value at 2x book to price is abt 26.8c (ie, 26.5 to 27c). fairly good results. notwithstanding this tho, the tech trend is downward. kbkbkbkbkbkbkbkkbkbkbkbkbkkbkbkbkbk!!! |
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| 07-Aug-2007 23:13 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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sigh well chipchip, pointless being right if the damn thing doesn't go up. :( actually, i wish whoever it was hadn't posted on achieva, the way they did on jade, banjoo, rowlsey etc. cos that was pure speculation, not FA, or techs. it kills a lot of ppl. not to mention the stock itself. FA-wise, this stock was actually beneath market radar. if ppl hadn't caught onto it, it wouldn't have cheonged up, and consequently, will not have stale bulls all the way to clear out now. ie, it'd have just stayed at abt 18c, and now wld be a genuine, slow, steady up. but sigh. ah well. fyi, the stale bulls need to be taken out all the way to 23c. then again at 25, 26c. ie, ping pong pattern. if it can clear 25, you have a steady up all the way. from market depth: support at 17c broken. next support is ~15c. from MACD: 60 day support is 16.5, 90d support is ~13.5c. so both techs dovetail. which really, if you lk at its earnings and all (and not in any way related to US subprime! howl), the current px is unjustified. :( if lkg to enter, suggest wait and see. might just skip the 17 and put my next strike at 13.5c-15c. erkkkkk. |
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| 07-Aug-2007 23:03 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hi amateur99: shanghai index doesn't go down because it is a closed market: ie, entirely domestically supported. foreign funds only have the right to buy their A list companies, and even then, the % is capped, and it has to go through some financial rules, not entirely sure of the process. but basically, the entire chinese market is supported by domestic money, which is so flush with cash that it just keeps going up and up. rem that this is a young, growing country: the way ASEAN was back in the 80s, when it was double digit growth every year. which is why they can easily support PE ratios of 50x, 100x even (ie, double profits each time). and since no foreign funds to interfere, completely no exposure to US subprime--or even if there is, whatever they pull out, even the bitty man on the street will rush to take the place (1 bil ppl, remember). so no problem at all. yah. agree wtih lordtan. elfie bought sti put warrants as insurance alr. >~< |
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| 07-Aug-2007 15:45 |
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hi colorado, thanks for the reply re the hdb thing. :) could someone who knows warrants help me out with the following pls? if i buy an sti put warrant, how does the exercise px etc come about? ie, i choose to hold it to expiry date and exercise it, rather than buy/sell on open market, how do you count its value then? and in first place, how do you exercise it? blur... |
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| 07-Aug-2007 14:27 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hi chipchip, meant the counters i was interested in/'weather vanes' for the market. not just the actual buy/sell, but look at market depth too: too many ppl queuing to sell all the way, but buy queues are supported only to a very short level from the bid/ask queue you see on the screen. sembcorp, sembmar, kepcorp. ke and kh to a certain extent. this is despite their good dividends and that sembcorp posts its results today. so warning bell out alr. note the two sembs and kc are actually on a downtrend. for the pennies: achieva and easttech: very strong selling pressure. contra trap from last week. and need to clear stale bulls all the way back to previous levels of the wed fall. be careful wing tai: it's oscillating 12-16c range per day. good for scalpers but perhaps not good for general market. UIC is also falling. note: with exception of achieva, not vested in the rest. and haven't went fully into this yet either. am staggering my buys for this period; to hold longer term for 4Q of year. (not going to buy all counters mentioned either. just wait and see how now.) and perhaps surest sign of lack of market confidence: look at the STI put warrants. they've dropped, yes, but not by a lot. this is despite market going up. signals are that this rebound is likely short term then. wld expect sti to close flat or slight up today. |
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| 07-Aug-2007 14:04 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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going by its last FYE report, today (or thereabouts) shd be when they post their results. supposed to be the best since IPO. previous year NAV was 12.5. expecting this yr to be abt 13c at least. so even without takeover, a fair value at 2x book to price ratio gives 26c. not fully vested yet tho; general market is weak, and after that sharp run up and sell off, there'll be lots of stale bulls to clear out along the way. so no hurry to vest. from market depth, there's relatively strong support at 17c. If break below that, 15c is the next support. for those interested, look to vest in small batches each time, so as to hedge against external falls due to general pessimism in entire market. |
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| 07-Aug-2007 09:49 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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be careful of today's market. seeing too much selling across the board. small lots buying, large lots selling. contra trap from last friday as well; T+5 date will be monday. lks like a tech rebound but likely to be shortlived; too much selling. |
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| 06-Aug-2007 17:03 |
Stamford Land
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Time for Re Rating?
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yep. thanks davidxiao. :) 55c on an uptrend is my next entry level. separating out buys into small portions.... miserable market. erk. |
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| 06-Aug-2007 10:07 |
Stamford Land
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Time for Re Rating?
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thanks. elf starting to fish this counter for 4Q of year. very, very slow fishing tho. :) |
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| 06-Aug-2007 00:08 |
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haha. apologies manikamaniko. ipunter is easier to type. :P yea, shd take your advice regarding fruit juice vs alcohol. bad for liver. sigh. weh. mister victorian. no choice lah. standby this entire week; damn shacked out with wk and all the bleeping politics there. :( actually, have a qn which hope those newly weds/etc just buying HDB flats can help with: when you buy your flat, did the govt deduct your entire CPF straightoff? am facing that unexpected problem now. it's like they wanna take my entire CPF at one shot, which means i'm tied to my job for at least another year. :( i had hoped to continue the loan, so i'd have had some years' grace to build up sufficient funds, but now that's gone. :((((( damn stressed. so mister victorian.. that's why no time to think abt stocks and all. hope you can understand. just too dispirited. but anw, do keep on doing what you're doing. :) and dun gotta worry abt elf. market-wise, i'm down only abt 3%. lines are very fluid so no worries there. :) (to the rest, apologies and do indulge....elf 'reporting' to victorian. ahahaha.) k nites, gonna watch some tv and prepare for next week. *breathe, breathe...* sigh. meh meh mehhhhhhh. |
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