Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 16-Aug-2007 22:32 |
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snoothie! *wail* huggggsssssss!!!! man. feel like bawling. sigh. :((( *!&*)^@)*&#)(*&_! dow and subprime! (&#)#&)*&#@ foreign funds! |
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| 16-Aug-2007 21:57 |
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sigh. elfie's miserable too. :( my chief mistake: trying to play FA style when i'm at heart a techie. it doesn't work this way. *wail* and not opening a cfd acct! *double wail* down....alll downnnnn.....sigh.... :(((((( i want a puppie. :(((((((( 
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| 16-Aug-2007 16:50 |
SPC
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hedge funds do short. that's why you see greater volatility than the years before. wow. spc stronger than i thought. nice. :) |
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| 16-Aug-2007 15:18 |
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covered liao. unfortunately too early. sigh. but ah well can't win them all. now look to buy: call warrants. :P but dead cat bounces are good for trading....hehe. i think, nevermind FA. elfie's a techie at heart. hehe. |
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| 16-Aug-2007 14:45 |
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ehhh... sohguanh, the named counters will not drop to below $1 lah. that's more than half their NAVs. hehe. but roughly, the jan 06 prices is a good gauge, for real bottom fishing. ;) and in case anyone is seeing this as a buy call: am interested in the named counters but NOT YET. now's not the time for heroics pls. fed will not cut rates. that will make the problem worse. if they do cut rates (aka, kena arm-twisted by the world), it'd be a temp upspike, then you'd see a real slide. ie, dow to 11,000, rather than 12,600. rem that in a bear market, all markets have always given up 100% of their gains. like what manikamaniko says, there is no difference each time, because human behaviour does not change. yeps red1721, glad to see another forumer having the same time count! (think i missed that post in the flurry here...). and yah. at first i wanted to do averaging down, then i realised the counters were all cutting below their 90 day MACD, esp the blues. so held back. now sitting mainly on cash. wait time now. patience.... kilroy! hehe. i thought a techie would be bleeding less than a fundamental player in this market? :P volatility is good for intraday scalping. if market does not allow hold long term, and since i don't have a *bleep* cfd account (regret not opening one! wail), the option left is intraday scalping. what the market dictates, we follow. the best player's not a TA, or FA, or whatever. it's the one who can follow. make bits and pieces here and there. still can earn. :) and synnexo, depending on what counter you are holding, can consider cutting some loss here and there? yes, painful, but perhaps the trick is to look overall and long term? i've taken quite a bit of loss in this period myself, but the idea is overall portfolio. can afford to lose some battles to win the war. cheers all! and stop panicking each other out lah. sheesh. |
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| 16-Aug-2007 14:09 |
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you know ruanlai, while the situation is bad, it really isn't that bad to a 'xi liao' case where everything is dead. in this case where a lot are already feeling bad and panicky, it would be nice to exercise some discretion in a public forum rather than fan up emotions. facts: the biggest hit is being taken by the blue chips since foreign funds are selling them to shore up their europe and US losses. because Asia is the only market left that has some profits. hedge funds are getting in the act by shorting to make up for their losses. moral of story: why would you trust a fund manager anymore than yourself in the market? how much more does he know? morgan stanley gave an 'all clear' signal just two days ago. yah right. what charts are they looking at? the trouble is with quants. they're using computer models to determine buy/sell, but in this way, they forget to think, they forget to factor in the one thing that computers can't quantify: human emotion. and the stock market is a place of emotions, not logic. haha, kilroy, re the goldman sachs/morgan stanley buy/hold call in the other post the other day: i was right. :P the fact is that there are no buy calls at this point in time: because if you are an FA player, you'll park it deep under your pillow and let it go to sleep for now. if you're a techie, you're doing only one thing: intraday scalping. fundamentals don't matter in a market that is emotive. the singapore economy is NOT in peril, and that's a fact. what is also a fact: the stock market is in peril. for long term holding, not yet time to buy. STI should fall to at least 3096 by my count. (believe sporeguy has a count similar to this?). the cue to enter is when daily vol drops to 1-1.5bil, and the forums are dead and quiet, and no one dares to buy. 45 days to go. this is day 1. kepcorp, sembmar, sembcorp, UIC will likely still go lower. believe some of the cos have instituted share buybacks actually. am seeing anomalous odd large buys here and there. cosco is majorly tanking. support at 4.06, and again at 4. if dips below, it's freefall. there's some underground deal: 16,000 lots bought at 4.08. |
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| 16-Aug-2007 11:22 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yep harryp, you're right. the large local shareholders are actually holding on; the ones selling are the foreign owners of blues (hence their large falls today, look at kepcorp), and panicky retailers on the pennies. but since no one's buying, they're forced to throw down even lower. for the counters not exposed to foreign funds (read: pennies that analysts don't report on): the vol is very, very low. indication of large players holding. see busd, it's only small lots selling. nothing of significance at all. the price fall is artificially depressed. if you have the funds, hold, when ppl are done panicking, buy back in. no worries. jade is doing very well today. hehe. |
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| 15-Aug-2007 18:00 |
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well, all i can say is this: i sure as hell am a (put) warrant convert. heehee. seriously, the blues have not bottomed out yet. kepcorp has finally broken below its 90day support at 1240. the rest are more or less hovering there. a lot are slightly below. they haven't bottomed out yet tho; just beginning to downtrend actually. as for the pennies...picture more difficult to see cos shortists and contraists. but it does appear as tho some of the pretty pennies have more or less found a bottom already. prob cos most of them dropped 25-50% the first few times, while the blues only dropped abt 5-10%. am seeing buying throughout the day, and not a final large lot buy up (indication of shortists buying back by sgx). so indication of support for some. the speculatives have an inexplicable life all their own, so won't even go into that. >~< cosco kena major shorting today. |
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| 15-Aug-2007 11:44 |
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haha. harryp, agree with the second conclusion but not the first. if you look at your charts, techs have been showing the downtrend since more than 3 weeks ago, from the time of the first drop already. just that ppl refused to believe it. if it's intra day period you're talking about, then it's intraday techs you need to look at. when one uses TA, need to make sure the parameters fit the tools selected. most of the time, ppl say techs are hocus pocus. but that's either because they choose not to believe their techs, or they chose the wrong tools. techs showed downtrend for this period of time. that's indisputable. must say tho, some of the pennies appear to have bottomed out. its the blues that aren't done dropping yet. |
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| 14-Aug-2007 23:55 |
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yea. you aren't the only person to comment on my typing speed. hehe. then what do ppl talk abt before the trade? how much they can make? guess one has to keep that in mind, but need to keep in mind too the cut loss level, isn't it? altho must admit, the latter is very, very difficult to do, esp when you have the hindsight that, 'bleep bleep bleep, why oh why didn't i sell then?!?!??!?! *wail*'. keke. yah. need to sleep and stop hovering around the DJIA. insanity of being an elf. dang, looks like DJIA is recovering. byebye SJ! :) |
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| 14-Aug-2007 23:19 |
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yea. that's why i'm learning FA. i've been reading company reports almost every night. i think my family thinks i'm insane. hahahaha. erm. isn't the first thing one looks at the risk/reward ratio? ie, how much can i potentially lose, before i decide to short/long? at least, that's how i do it... for tech scalping (long, since i don't play shorts)...ie, look at potential downside and viable support level (for the cut loss), then the upside, and then weigh to see if it's worth the risk. or ok, mebbe that's just me. but it's ok, i can let the heroes go first. :P ?? you mean GBP right? is there a GBY currency? *blur* ooh, forex looks like a golden minefield of a paradise to a techie like me. The Last Frontier. ooh. heehee. okok, need to sleep. got a long day at work tmrw. time to sell my puts! wheee. wish me luck. |
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| 14-Aug-2007 23:05 |
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haha yes chipchip, am lkg to clear my puts tmrw. wish me luck! :) actually, pension, the question is simple, but it's about human nature. Banks charge 24% interest for credit card debt. yet so many singaporeans and people all over the world owe credit card debt. what more a 5.75% mortage loan, which is 'cheap' by comparison? and the fed cannot cut rates. because in the first place, the subprime problem was due to them cutting rates back then, making all these loans cheap for all those people. if they cut rates now, it's just digging a deeper hole and exacerbating the problem. that's why they're doing everything they can EXCEPT cut rates. if they do cut tho, expect a temporary rally, then a confirmed bear market for the years coming; for the US and Europe side. asia remains a question. |
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| 14-Aug-2007 22:48 |
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am thinking the cfd thing is a good idea... ehhhhh....i thought you were an FA guy?!! no one converts an elf! muahahhahahaha. :P gah! you're sounding more and more like a friend of mine, only, he's an FA purist. think it's a personality thing... i'm too skittish and too pessimistic (or is it realistic?) to be a pure FA person. Can be pure TA, but pure FA would sure as hell cause me sleepless nights. so, guess it's a simple thing. play with, not against one's personality. sure is a tough lesson to learn tho. erk. actually. put it in a positive light: if you can only play long, it means you lessen your potential losses too. 
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| 14-Aug-2007 22:39 |
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eh well. elf's a regular bear cub at this period in time. and i figure, rather be an erroneous bear cub in a bull market and not lose money (even if it does cause a regular howl looking at prices go up) than a bull in a bear market and bleed. DJIA update: 13164.11 -72.42 / -0.55% ------------------------Wal-Mart drags on DowBlue-chip indicator dips after Wal-Mart's forecast, sales miss; broader market mixed on mild core inflation reading, narrowing of trade gap.NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks were mixed Tuesday morning as investors weighed a mild reading on core inflation, a narrowing of the trade gap and an earnings miss from Dow component Wal-Mart Stores. The Dow Jones industrial average (up 0.00 to 13,236.53, Charts) lost 0.2 percent in the early going, while the broader S&P 500 (down 0.37 to 1,452.55, Charts) index was little changed. The tech-fueled Nasdaq Composite (up 3.69 to 2,545.93, Charts) index gained 0.2 percent. Stocks ended little changed Monday, giving up the day's gains, as investors showed relief that central banks around the world are addressing credit crunch worries, but remained wary amid lingering questions about the economy. Tuesday morning was mixed, as investors sorted through the news, including a disappointing profit report and forecast from Wal-Mart Stores (down $2.32 to $43.85, Charts, Fortune 500). Shares of the world's largest retailer fell more than 5 percent, dragging on the Dow industrials. Fellow Dow retailer Home Depot (down $0.02 to $35.22, Charts, Fortune 500) slipped one percent after reporting higher-than-expected quarterly earnings on weaker-than-expected quarterly sales. The home improvement retailer also reiterated that its per-share profit will dip as much as 18 percent this year. On the economic front, the Producer Price index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, rose 0.6 percent in July, topping forecasts. However, prices excluding volatile food and energy rose just 0.1 percent, short of expectations. Separately, the U.S. trade gap fell unexpectedly in June, with strong imports countering the impact of higher energy prices. Treasury prices slipped, raising the benchmark 10-year note yield to 4.80 percent from 4.76 percent late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and the yen. U.S. light crude oil for September delivery rose 58 cents to $72.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, giving up bigger morning gains. COMEX gold for December delivery fell $2.90 to $678 an ounce. 
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| 14-Aug-2007 22:33 |
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hehe. gotta love that emoticon. it's damn cute. dow dropping. 13159.07 -77.46 / -0.59% |
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| 14-Aug-2007 22:24 |
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hehehe. can't help it, singaporegal. (hugs to you! keke). too much mixing with the bbs. was speaking to a broker from one of the houses just the other day. suffice to say, it's flipping all manipulated, esp the pennies, since they're cheaper. i've half a mind never to believe in fundamentals and FA anymore. if one cannot get insider access, the next best thing, really, is techs. if you're willing to see it, it shows you the picture of what is actually happening, more so than any analyst's call on a stock. i mean, isn't it true, esp from actual raw busd data, that most of the times when they issue buy calls, what you see on screen is large lots selling, small lots buying? does kilroy do shorting? |
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| 14-Aug-2007 22:18 |
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it's, literally, a bloody story. >~< eheh, just thinking, you know that poll at the front page? they should have an elfin category. ie: kbkbkbkbkbkbkkbkbkb!! 
oh noo...elfie starting to get hyper. sigh. |
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| 14-Aug-2007 22:16 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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would rather be wrong, manikam (i dowan my money to go! :P)....altho as we speak, the dow is down 78 pts. be careful of break below 13,100. that's not a support level but a psychological pt. the level to be careful of: 13,000. actual short term support is 13,200. |
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| 14-Aug-2007 22:12 |
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eheh, kilroy, there's another possibility: Goldman has FINISHED selling. Morgan stanley has NOT FINISHED selling. :P just thinking from the perspective of a BB... |
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| 14-Aug-2007 17:03 |
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still think that the market is on downtrend. or at least, the charts say so. and well, if banks have been injecting so much money, and the subprime really is that 'small' a problem (which reports said the selling was way overdone?), then why is it that injections of hundreds of billions of dollars doesn't spike up the market, but it's just gently losing ground instead? besides, see where all the analysts are from. citibank, goldman sachs, merril lynch, etc. they need to sell their stocks. it's the old problem of vested interests. after all, if they don't issue buy calls, who will buy when they want to sell? excuse the cynic in me speaking.... |
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