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13-Aug-2009 10:45

Others / How to Swing /Opportunity / Position Trade?

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Hi Ferrowolf,

Great post n great journal.

Look forward to more of your sharing and postings and chart analysis in this forum for the benefits of fellow forumers n newbies.

Ferrowolf ( Date: 13-Aug-2009 10:26) Posted:

Hey everyone,

Back2Basic, I believe you were replying about Ausgroup? I agree with u there, in terms of relative strength to the index, ausgroup isn't quite performing.

pcwlc66, the fed announcement held no surprises, but it certainly created a lot of volatility in the forex markets!

Commodity counters are going crazy.
On Indoagri, $2.00 should provide some psychological resistance.
Fibo projections indicate $1.79 on the shorter term and $2.15 in the mid term, depending on where you drew your points.
Today we broke 1.79, perhaps around $2.00 in this week or next should be a good place to take profit.
In a run like this, I personally think it's a good idea to leave a small position running with a trailing stoploss, cos you never know how high this puppy could go.

Midas is a slow and steady counter it seems, trend is certainly up. In fact, today it gapped up above the previous swing high. Gap has been covered, likely we'll see further upside in the days to come.

Peace,
Ferrowolf

Check out my personal trading journal here.
Meant solely for self-educational purposes, please feel free to leave comments.

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13-Aug-2009 10:26

Midas / Midas

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Midas Holdings: Set to enlarge its production capacity

(BUY\S$0.88\Target S$0.97 Under Review)

James Lim (62323892, james.lim@dmgaps.com.sg)
Terence Wong, CFA (62323896, terence.wong@dmgaps.com.sg)

Purchasing 4th and 5th production lines.

Midas Holdings announced that it has purchased two additional aluminium alloy (AA)
extrusion lines with an annual production capacity of 20,000 tonnes.

Coupled with the current two existing AA lines and taking into account the 3rd AA line that
is expected to commence production in 2Q10, this move would see Midas command an annual
production capacity of 50,000 tonnes by end-2010.

We view this as a positive move.

With the expected strong pipeline of new projects in the PRC, Midas’ higher production capabilities
would enable it to leverage on the transportation boom in China.

Also, the funds required for the purchase of these two AA lines would be financed by Midas’
recent S$89.4m share placement and not through bank borrowings, thereby avoiding the need for
the company to gear up.

Recommendation.

The fourth and fifth lines would be commissioned in Feb-10 and Aug-10
respectively. We will be reviewing our target price and BUY recommendation pending discussions
with management.

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13-Aug-2009 09:28

Others / DOW

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13-Aug-2009 09:17

Midas / Midas

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Intraday aredi broke 90, high at 90.5, will head towards 1.19 and higher.

Trade Summary shows heavy buying up:

5EN (MIDAS)

WEIGHTED AVG PRICE : 0.9009 LAST DONE PRICE : 0.900

SPREAD/PRICE RATIO : 0.0056 AVG TRADE SIZE : 37.994

< />

Last Trades Vol BuyVol Mid SellVol

0.895 4 90 90 0 0

0.900 124 5,374 1,637 0 3,737

0.905 50 1,299 0 0 1,299

TOTAL 178 6,763 1,727 0 5,036

risktaker ( Date: 13-Aug-2009 08:33) Posted:

Today we shall see the new high of Midas @ 0.90 :) Good luck to all who vested.

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13-Aug-2009 01:05

Midas / Midas

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NEWS RELEASE - MIDAS STEPS UP CAPACITY EXPANSION TO MEET MARKET DEMAND

- Purchases fourth and fifth extrusion presses with annual production capacity of 20,000 tonnes
- Third extrusion production line on track to start production in 2Q2010
- Total annual production capacity to more than double from 20,000 tonnes currently to 50,000 tonnes in end 2010

Singapore, August 12, 2009 - Mainboard-listed Midas Holdings Limited (“Midas”, and together with its subsidiaries, “the Group”) (麦达斯控股有限公司), announced today that its Aluminium Alloy Division, Jilin Midas Aluminium Industries Co., Ltd (“Jilin Midas”) (吉林麦达斯铝业有限公司), has purchased two aluminium alloy extrusion presses - 36MN and 95 MN – with an annual production capacity of 20,000 tonnes.

Delivery for installation and commissioning of the 36MN aluminium alloy extrusion press is expected for February 2010, while the delivery for installation and commissioning for the 95MN aluminium alloy extrusion press is expected for August 2010. The two new production lines were purchased from Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd (太原重工股份有限公司) and will be funded by Midas’ recent share placement proceeds.

Jilin Midas currently has two aluminium alloy extrusion production lines (55MN and 75MN) with a total annual production capacity of 20,000 tonnes. It is building a third production line (110MN), which is targeted to commence production in the second quarter of 2010, with production capacity of 10,000 tonnes per annum. With the addition of the two new production lines, Jilin Midas will have a total annual production capacity of 50,000 tonnes by the end of 2010.

Commented Mr Patrick Chew (周华光), CEO of Midas: “We are delighted to announce our plans to further expand our aluminium alloy extrusion production capacity to meet market demand and seize market opportunities.

“With the expected strong pipeline of new projects in the PRC, we believe that our enhanced production capabilities will provide good leverage for Midas to tap on the transportation boom and increase our market share both in the PRC and international markets.”

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13-Aug-2009 00:33

Others / DOW

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13-Aug-2009 00:30

Others / DOW

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Always remember, wat is o/b can be even more o/b, likewise, wat is o/s can be even more o/s.

The trick n key is to know how to spot reversal sign in TA.

But of course, TA is not infallible, so set your stop-loss n remember my 3 golden mantras (do a search), one of which is:

"Cut losses short and let profits ride with trailing stops", reason being, we need to maximise our profits to cover those losses and yet make net profits.

Back2Basic ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 23:58) Posted:

Be very careful when you read plenty of rosy news...Many of the techincal indicators are turning and momentum is slowing...there is still some legs to move but the tipping point will come, so dun be over exhuberant...time to take some money off the table...

Caveat Emptor...

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13-Aug-2009 00:23

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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Congrats especially to those who followed my chart analysis and dared to buy last Fri when it presents one of the best opportunity when it bounced off the 15ema with tight stop-loss if it close below the 25ema or 65ema.

Today's vol extremely high cf yesterday's vol.

JMO, once it breaks above the recent high at 66 to complete the handle, it will head towards 94.5 to 1.05

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13-Aug-2009 00:13

Midas / Midas

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Congrats especially to those who followed my chart analysis and dared to buy last Fri when it presents one of the best opportunity when it bounced off the amazingly strong magical 25ema which had been providing tat magical support since 8/6/09.

Today's vol into 20 mins of trading had aredi exceeded yesterday's vol.

JMO, once it breaks above the recent high at 89, it will head towards 1.19 with some minor resistance at 91.5 n 1.02

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13-Aug-2009 00:09

Midas / Midas

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Look at my chart, this is just my opinion, if u decides to buy, if I were u, I would either set my cut-loss if it close (not intraday, as it can be fake) below the 25ema and look for another buy opportunity around the 65ema for reversal sign.

Dun expect all trades to be profitable, trading is all about minimise losses n maximise profits with trailing stops (read my 3 golden mantras)

tea444u ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 15:10) Posted:

CAN still buy at 88?

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13-Aug-2009 00:01

Midas / Midas

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Look at my cahrt n commemtary n u decide.

Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

tea444u ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 15:21) Posted:

no i haf not bot any yet. Wondering if the price is safe for me to go in.

can any advise? thank u risktaker.

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12-Aug-2009 23:55

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.

If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

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12-Aug-2009 14:41

Others / Market News that affect STI

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U.S. Enters Recovery as Stimulus Refutes Skeptics, Survey Shows

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By Shobhana Chandra and Kristy Scheuble

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s has begun as President Barack Obama’s fiscal stimulus -- derided as insufficient and budget-busting months ago -- takes effect, a survey of economists indicated.

The economy will expand 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median of 53 forecasts in the monthly Bloomberg News survey. Analysts lifted their estimate for the third quarter by 1.2 percentage points compared with July, the biggest such boost in surveys dating from May 2003.

“We’ve averted the worst, and there are clear signs the stimulus is working,” said Kenneth Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board in New York.

The new projections, following better-than-anticipated reports on manufacturing, employment and home construction, echo gains in investor confidence that have propelled the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index to its high for the year. A rebound may help cushion declines in Obama’s approval ratings, political analysts said.

“The fact that people for the first time in over a year are starting to look at some glimmers of hope plays to the prospect of some strength in the stimulus,” said Susan Molinari, a Republican strategist in Washington who advised Rudy Giuliani during his presidential nomination campaign in 2008.

Unemployment, Fed

The anticipated expansion in the coming year won’t be enough to prevent the unemployment rate from reaching 10 percent for the first time since 1983, the survey also showed. That will force the Federal Reserve to forego raising its benchmark interest rate until the third quarter of 2010, according to the median projection.

The Fed’s policy-setting Open Market Committee will today keep the target rate at zero to 0.25 percent and retain plans to buy as much as $1.45 trillion of housing debt by year-end to help secure a recovery, analysts said. The FOMC’s statement is expected at about 2:15 p.m. in Washington.

Obama’s $787 billion economic recovery effort, spanning tax cuts, infrastructure spending and a goal to create or save 3.5 million jobs, was enacted about six months ago. Republican lawmakers, nearly all of whom voted against the package, have pilloried the plan as a waste of money.

Republican Criticism

“Trillions more in Washington spending will not end a recession, it only puts future generations under a mountain of unsustainable debt,” House Minority Leader John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said last week. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated last week that the stimulus has pumped $125 billion into the economy so far.

A federal program to replace older vehicles with more fuel-efficient ones helped boost sales of cars and light trucks last month to the highest level since September, according to industry figures. Automakers, operating with lean inventories, will resume output to meet the jump in demand.

“Cash-for-clunkers was the icing on the cake,” said David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. “It’s well-timed stimulus syncing with cyclical forces leading to a ramping up of production.”

Company heads seeing an improvement include David Weidman, chief executive officer of Dallas-based chemical maker Celanese Corp. “We exited the quarter with increasing optimism,” and there are “clear signs of economic recovery,” Weidman said in an interview in July.

Build ‘Credibility’

“The stimulus was really a long-term political and economic play by the administration, and now they’re starting to see the results they wanted,” said Bill Buck, a Democratic strategist who worked on the presidential campaigns of former Vice President Al Gore and retired General Wesley Clark. “The administration would be wise to use this to build their credibility with the public” on other issues like health care, he said.

The president’s approval rating is falling on concern over rising joblessness and the growing budget deficit, a Quinnipiac University poll showed last week.

Half of the registered voters surveyed from July 27 to Aug. 3 by Quinnipiac said they approve of the job Obama is doing, compared with 42 percent who disapprove. That’s down from 57 percent approval and 33 percent disapproval in a late June poll.

Americans are hurting as employers continue to cut jobs, albeit at a slower pace. The unemployment rate will average 9.8 percent in 2010, according to the Bloomberg survey taken from Aug. 5 to Aug. 11.

Jobs Key

“The labor market is going to be the key,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. “The risk isn’t that it gets much worse, but that it doesn’t improve quickly enough. It’d be nice if the consumer found his legs.”

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, will rise an average 1.5 percent from July to December, up from prior estimates, the survey showed.

“What’s happening now is a leveling off, not a strong increase in growth, and that owes a little to the stimulus package,” said Robert Solow, a Nobel laureate and professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “Seeing the rest of it filter through to the economy in the second half of the year will be extremely helpful.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble in Washington at kmckeaney@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 12, 2009 00:00 EDT

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12-Aug-2009 14:33

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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Thanks for your compliments.

So sorry, I dun monitor swiber at this poit in time, maybe in the future.

ERIC118 ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 12:34) Posted:

Thanks richtan 4 your brilliant post !! vested @ 58 , hopefully can run for 2-3 days ??. any comment on Swiber ? Anyway thanks.....appreciate!!!!!!

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12-Aug-2009 14:28

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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Nobody can advise u whether to sell or hold as it depends on individual trading strategy, threshold of pain, interpretation of chart n nobody is answerable for your profits or losses, dyodd n BOSAYOR.

Personally, I trade based on chart, so long as I dun see any sell sign, I will not exit.

To really make money, u need to know FA of tat stock n time entry n exit using TA, u need to learn TA, though it is not infallible, thus need to set stop-loss.

I had created a thread "Learning TA" specially for newbies n posted many advices, click on my nick n take your time to read thru as "Rome was not built in one day".

dionnazhao ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 13:38) Posted:

now is 0.61...

i should sold or keep.......

confused...cause last time when up to 0.61....few days go back to 0.57........

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12-Aug-2009 14:19

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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Buffet is basically a FA guy, not TA guy.

He would have made even more money had he combined FA with TA to time entry n exit.

richtan ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 14:16) Posted:

Thanks for your compliments.

I beg to differ, in trading, as in warfare, bound to have some losses, never every trade also profitable, the key is to cut losses short n let profits ride with trailing stops (one of the 3 golden mantras) as we need to max our profits to cover those losses n make net gains.

Do a search "golden mantras" for my 3 golden mantras.

stevenkoh1981 ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 14:09) Posted:

there is a breakout sign liao, invest at your own risk.

In share u invest as long u earn and not loose $$$.

This is what Buffet taught, u cant predict how high it will go up.

But for this share it is on its way up up up, this is my own view, invest at your own risk.

What Rich Tan say its correct it up up.

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12-Aug-2009 14:16

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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Thanks for your compliments.

Do a search "golden mantras" for my 3 golden mantras.

stevenkoh1981 ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 14:09) Posted:

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12-Aug-2009 14:12

Midas / Midas

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Btw, did u also buy Ausgroup, I had hinted in my posts for the past few days.

richtan ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 14:09) Posted:

U r most welcome, but IMO, dun be too eager to let go yet till u spotted any reversal sign.

Remember, wat is o/b can be even more o/b.

Remember my 3 golden mantras.

But dyodd n BOSAYOR.

Lets Huat Ahhhhh.... together.

fartist ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 14:06) Posted:

THANK YOU RICHTAN! :D

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12-Aug-2009 14:09

Midas / Midas

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U r most welcome, but IMO, dun be too eager to let go yet till u spotted any reversal sign.

Remember, wat is o/b can be even more o/b.

Remember my 3 golden mantras.

But dyodd n BOSAYOR.

Lets Huat Ahhhhh.... together.

fartist ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 14:06) Posted:

THANK YOU RICHTAN! :D

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12-Aug-2009 12:01

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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Congrats to those who had bot based on my chart analysis n past postings, particularly if bot on last Fri's best opportunity.

Trade Summary shows heavy buying up n precisely was the next to run up after Midas:

5GJ (AusGroup)

WEIGHTED AVG PRICE : 0.5999 LAST DONE PRICE : 0.610

SPREAD/PRICE RATIO : 0.0000 AVG TRADE SIZE : 113.972

< />

Last Trades Vol BuyVol Mid SellVol

0.575 17 368 148 0 220

0.577 1 193 0 193 0

0.580 17 1,244 549 26 669

0.585 17 2,416 722 0 1,694

0.590 96 7,393 2,785 30 4,578

0.595 48 5,442 1,371 0 4,071

0.600 72 9,323 136 0 9,187

0.605 19 4,346 656 1,555 2,135

0.610 107 14,745 5,906 0 8,839

0.615 6 119 0 0 119

TOTAL 400 45,589 12,273 1,804 31,512

richtan ( Date: 12-Aug-2009 09:30) Posted:

If my chart analysis is not wrong, Ausgroup will be next on the line to follow Midas run-up with its good FA and TA timing. Read all my posts below to justify the run-up.

richtan ( Date: 11-Aug-2009 18:55) Posted:

Yesterday's candle bounced off the amazingly strong 15ema support n today's doji formed a higher high n higher low on increased vol n Trade Summary shows heavy buy-up:

5GJ (AusGroup)

WEIGHTED AVG PRICE : 0.5834	LAST DONE PRICE : 0.580
SPREAD/PRICE RATIO : 0.0086	AVG TRADE SIZE : 53.102

< />

Last	Trades	Vol	BuyVol	Mid	SellVol
0.575	22	396	396	0	0
0.580	138	6,669	4,007	0	2,662
0.585	116	7,470	2,069	0	5,401
0.590	37	2,086	181	0	1,905
TOTAL	313	16,621	6,653	0	9,968

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